1. Stochastic asymmetric repartition of lytic machinery in dividing CD8+ T cells generates heterogeneous killing behavior
- Author
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Fanny Lafouresse, Romain Jugele, Sabina Müller, Marine Doineau, Valérie Duplan-Eche, Eric Espinosa, Marie-Pierre Puisségur, Sébastien Gadat, Salvatore Valitutti, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), Université Toulouse 1 Capitole (UT1), and Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)
- Subjects
human lymphocytes ,cell division ,QH301-705.5 ,Science ,Medicine ,lytic granules ,Biology (General) ,cytotoxic t lymphocytes ,[SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance ,B- ECONOMIE ET FINANCE ,lysosomal-associated membrane proteins - Abstract
National audience; I calibrate a Multiple‐Risk Susceptible–Infected–Recovered model on the covid pandemic to analyze the impact of the age‐specific confinement and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing policies on incomes and mortality. Two polar strategies emergeas potentially optimal. The suppression policy would crush the curve by confining 90% of the population for 4 months to eradicate the virus. The flatten‐thecurvepolicy would reduce the confinement to 30% of the population for 5 months, followed by almost 1 year of free circulation of the virus to attain herd immunity without overwhelming hospitals.Both strategies yield a total cost of around 15% of annualgross domestic product (GDP) when combining the economic cost of confinement with the value of lives lost. I show that hesitating between the two strategies can have a huge societal cost, in particular if the suppression policy is stopped too early. Becauseseniors are much more vulnerable, a simple recommendation emerges to shelter them as one deconfines young and middle‐aged people to build our collective herd immunity. By doing so, one reduces the death toll of the pandemic together with the economic cost of the confinement, and the total cost is divided by a factor 2. I also show that expandingthe mass testing capacity to screen people sent back to work has a large benefit under various scenarios.This analysis is highly dependent upon deeply uncertain epidemiologic, sociological, economic, and ethical parameters.
- Published
- 2021
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