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Power generation through solar photovoltaics has shown significant growth in recent years. However, high penetration of solar PV creates power system operational issues as a result of solar PV variability and uncertainty. Short-term PV variability mainly occurs due to the intermittency of cloud cover. Therefore, to mitigate the effects of PV variability, a sky-image-based, localized, global horizontal irradiance forecasting model was introduced considering the individual cloud motion, cloud thicknesses, and the elevations of clouds above the ground level. The proposed forecasting model works independently of any historical irradiance measurements. Two inexpensive sky camera systems were developed and placed in two different locations to obtain sky images for cloud tracking and cloud-based heights. Then, irradiance values for onsite and for a PV site located with a distance of 2 km from the main camera were forecasted for 1 minute, 5 minutes, and 15 minutes ahead of real-time. Results show that the three-level cloud categorization and the individual cloud movement tracking method introduced in this paper increase the forecasting accuracy. For partially cloudy and sunny days, the forecasting model for 15 min forecasting time interval achieved a positive skill factor concerning the persistent model. The accuracy of determining the correct irradiance state for a 1 min forecasting time interval using the proposed model is 81%. The average measures of RMSE, MAE, and SF obtained using the proposed method for 15 min forecasting time horizon are 101 Wm-2, 64 Wm-2, and 0.26, respectively. These forecasting accuracy levels are much higher than the other benchmarks considered in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently published International Electrotechnical Committee (IEC) technical reports IEC 61000-3-13 provides detailed methodologies for managing voltage unbalance (VU) in electric power systems. A key aspect in the VU emission allocation process is the estimation of VU propagation in different parts of the network. Although the VU propagation from upstream networks to downstream networks is adequately addressed, the attenuation of VU when propagating from downstream to upstream networks at the same voltage level has not been properly taken into account in the aforementioned methodologies. Furthermore, mains connected three-phase induction motors are known to attenuate VU, and there is no methodology currently available to quantify the attenuation provided by such motors. The main motivation behind the current research is to investigate the VU propagation and attenuation in radial distribution networks and to quantify the attenuation provided by induction motor loads. This paper reports that the VU propagation from downstream to upstream in a radial distribution network with symmetrical distribution lines can be conservatively approximated by the ratio of fault levels of upstream and downstream network. Moreover, an influence coefficient has been introduced as a means of appraising the impact of induction motor loads. The theoretical work presented is verified using unbalanced load flow analysis. The outcomes presented in the paper are useful for the further development of IEC technical report on VU emission allocation. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]