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Long-term electricity consumption forecasting has been a hot issue due to its importance in power systems planning. Recently, system dynamics (SD) have been considered a potential method for electricity consumption forecasting. However, traditional SD methods are failed in forecasting future power systems toward low-carbon, due to the complex influencing factors and the simple SD model structure. In this study, a novel method combining SD and the ImPACT equation is proposed to solve the above problem. First, a new influencing factor system including emerging factors is established to consider the development of future power system. Subsequently, the ImPACT equation is employed to decompose the electricity consumption into four subsystems. By doing this, the linkage between factors and electricity consumption can be better revealed, which helps to improve the forecasting accuracy. Next, models for quantifying the correlation between subsystems and factors are established using SD. Finally, the proposed method is verified by forecasting the power consumption of China in the future year 2030 to 2050. Furthermore, various scenarios are set to analyze the changing trend of future power consumption by different influencing factors. The results of this article can provide important basic information for power supply and power grid planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As part of ongoing efforts to contain the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, understanding the role of asymptomatic patients in the transmission system is essential for infection control. However, the optimal approach to risk assessment and management of asymptomatic cases remains unclear. This study proposed a Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, No symptoms, Hospitalized and reported, Recovered, Death (SEINRHD) epidemic propagation model. The model was constructed based on epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in China and accounting for the heterogeneity of social contact networks. The early community outbreaks in Wuhan were reconstructed and fitted with the actual data. We used this model to assess epidemic control measures for asymptomatic cases in three dimensions. The impact of asymptomatic cases on epidemic propagation was examined based on the effective reproduction number, abnormally high transmission events, and type and structure of transmission. Management of asymptomatic cases can help flatten the infection curve. Tracing 75% of the asymptomatic cases corresponds to a 32.5% overall reduction in new cases (compared with tracing no asymptomatic cases). Regardless of population-wide measures, household transmission is higher than other types of transmission, accounting for an estimated 50% of all cases. The magnitude of tracing of asymptomatic cases is more important than the timing; when all symptomatic patients were traced, tested, and isolated in a timely manner, the overall epidemic was not sensitive to the time of implementing the measures to trace asymptomatic patients. Disease control and prevention within families should be emphasized during an epidemic. Note to Practitioners—This article addresses the urgent need to assess the risk of another COVID-19 outbreak caused by asymptomatic cases and to find the optimal, most practical approach to asymptomatic case management. Previous studies mostly focused on the clinical and statistical characteristics of asymptomatic cases; few have evaluated the impact of asymptomatic case measures using mathematical modeling at the community scale. This study proposed a Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, No symptoms, Hospitalized and reported, Recovered, Death (SEINRHD) propagation model based on local community structures and social contact networks, according to the development characteristics and trend of COVID-19 in a Chinese community. The conclusion provides theoretical support for emergency work of relevant departments in different periods of an epidemic. In the early stages of the epidemic, timely detection and isolation of symptomatic patients should be a priority. Where there are surplus resources for epidemic prevention, the authorities should consider increasing the proportion of asymptomatic patients being traced. Epidemic prevention measures among family members should be a primary focus of attention. This combination of strategies can help reduce the rate of viral transmission and result in extinguishing the epidemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Operational indices optimization is crucial for the global optimization in beneficiation processes. This paper presents a multitasking multiobjective evolutionary method to solve operational indices optimization, which involves a formulated multiobjective multifactorial operational indices optimization (MO-MFO) problem and the proposed multiobjective MFO algorithm for solving the established MO-MFO problem. The MO-MFO problem includes multiple level of accurate models of operational indices optimization, which are generated on the basis of a data set collected from production. Among the formulated models, the most accurate one is considered to be the original functions of the solved problem, while the remained models are the helper tasks to accelerate the optimization of the most accurate model. For the MFO algorithm, the assistant models are alternatively in multitasking environment with the accurate model to transfer their knowledge to the accurate model during optimization in order to enhance the convergence of the accurate model. Meanwhile, the recently proposed two-stage assortative mating strategy for a multiobjective MFO algorithm is applied to transfer knowledge among multitasking tasks. The proposed multitasking framework for operational indices optimization has conducted on 10 different production conditions of beneficiation. Simulation results demonstrate its effectiveness in addressing the operational indices optimization of beneficiation problem. Note to Practitioners—Operational indices optimization is a typical approach to achieve global production optimization by efficiently coordinating all the indices to improve the production indices. In this paper, a multiobjective multitasking framework is developed to address the operational indices optimization, which includes a multitasking multiobjective operational indices optimization problem formulation and a multitasking multiobjective evolutionary optimization to solve the above-formulated optimization problem. The proposed approach can achieve a solution set for the decision-making. The simulation results on a real beneficiation process in China with 10 operational conditions show that the proposed approach is able to obtain a superior solution set, which is associated with a higher grade and yield of the product. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]