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As part of ongoing efforts to contain the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, understanding the role of asymptomatic patients in the transmission system is essential for infection control. However, the optimal approach to risk assessment and management of asymptomatic cases remains unclear. This study proposed a Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, No symptoms, Hospitalized and reported, Recovered, Death (SEINRHD) epidemic propagation model. The model was constructed based on epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in China and accounting for the heterogeneity of social contact networks. The early community outbreaks in Wuhan were reconstructed and fitted with the actual data. We used this model to assess epidemic control measures for asymptomatic cases in three dimensions. The impact of asymptomatic cases on epidemic propagation was examined based on the effective reproduction number, abnormally high transmission events, and type and structure of transmission. Management of asymptomatic cases can help flatten the infection curve. Tracing 75% of the asymptomatic cases corresponds to a 32.5% overall reduction in new cases (compared with tracing no asymptomatic cases). Regardless of population-wide measures, household transmission is higher than other types of transmission, accounting for an estimated 50% of all cases. The magnitude of tracing of asymptomatic cases is more important than the timing; when all symptomatic patients were traced, tested, and isolated in a timely manner, the overall epidemic was not sensitive to the time of implementing the measures to trace asymptomatic patients. Disease control and prevention within families should be emphasized during an epidemic. Note to Practitioners—This article addresses the urgent need to assess the risk of another COVID-19 outbreak caused by asymptomatic cases and to find the optimal, most practical approach to asymptomatic case management. Previous studies mostly focused on the clinical and statistical characteristics of asymptomatic cases; few have evaluated the impact of asymptomatic case measures using mathematical modeling at the community scale. This study proposed a Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, No symptoms, Hospitalized and reported, Recovered, Death (SEINRHD) propagation model based on local community structures and social contact networks, according to the development characteristics and trend of COVID-19 in a Chinese community. The conclusion provides theoretical support for emergency work of relevant departments in different periods of an epidemic. In the early stages of the epidemic, timely detection and isolation of symptomatic patients should be a priority. Where there are surplus resources for epidemic prevention, the authorities should consider increasing the proportion of asymptomatic patients being traced. Epidemic prevention measures among family members should be a primary focus of attention. This combination of strategies can help reduce the rate of viral transmission and result in extinguishing the epidemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Resilience problems from cyber-attacks on information communication technologies exist under their wide usage. False data injection (FDI) judiciously designed by attackers may cause severe consequences such as uneconomic operation and blackouts, particularly multivector energy distribution systems (MEDS), which are closely linked and interdependent. This article addresses the cyber resilient issues of an MEDS caused by FDI, considering the uncertainty from renewable resources. A novel two-stage distributionally robust optimization (DRO) is proposed to realize the day-ahead and real-time resilience improvement. The ambiguity set is based on both the Wasserstein distance and moment information. Compared to robust optimization which considers the worst case, DRO yields less-conservative solutions and thus provides more economic operation schemes. The Wasserstein metric-based ambiguity set enables to provide additional flexibility hedging against renewable uncertainty. Case studies are demonstrated on two representative MEDS networked with energy hubs, illustrating the effectiveness of the proposed cybersecured model. The produced adaptive robust economic operation for MEDS can reduce load shedding and enhance system resilience against severe cyberattacks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic events can severely damage both electricity and natural gas systems, causing devastating consequences. Ensuring the secure and reliable operation of the integrated energy system (IES) is of high importance to avoid potential damage to the infrastructure and reduce economic losses. This article proposes a new optimal two-stage optimization to enhance the reliability of IES planning and operation against seismic attacks. In the first stage, hardening investment on the IES is conducted, featuring preventive measures for seismic attacks. The second stage minimizes the expected operation cost of emergency response. The random seismic attack is modeled as uncertainty, which is realized after the first stage. An explicit damage assessment model is developed to define the budget set of the uncertain seismic activity. Based on the survivability of transmission lines and gas pipelines of IES, an optimal system investment plan is developed. The problem is formulated as a two-stage distributionally robust optimization (DRO) model, which is tested on an integrated IEEE 30-bus system and 20-node gas network. Case studies demonstrate that the two-stage DRO outperforms robust optimization and a single-stage optimization model in terms of minimizing the investment cost and expected economic loss. This article can help system operators to make economical hardening and operation strategies to improve the reliability of IES under seismic attacks, thus managing a more robust and secure energy system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The wide implementation of information and communication technologies (ICT) cause power system operations exposed to cyber-attacks. Meanwhile, the tendency of integrated multi energy vectors has worsened this issue with multiple energy coupled. This paper proposes a two-stage risk-averse mitigation strategy for water-energy systems (WESs), incorporating power, natural gas and water systems against false data injection attacks (FDIA) under water-energy nexus. The FDIA on individual sub-systems is modelled through hampering false data integrity to the systems. An innovative two-stage risk-averse distributionally robust optimization (RA-DRO) is proposed to mitigate uneconomic operation and provides a coordinated optimal load shedding scheme for the nexus system security. A coherent risk measure, Conditional Value-at-Risk is incorporated into the RA-DRO to model risk. A Benders decomposition method is used to solve the original NP-hard RA-DRO problem. Case studies are demonstrated on a WES under water-energy nexus and results show that the effectiveness of the method to mitigate risks from potential FDIA and renewable uncertainties. This research provides WES operators an economic system operation tool by optimally coordinating energy infrastructures and implementing reasonable load shedding to enhance cybersecurity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The water system management problem has been widely investigated. However, the interdependencies between water and energy systems are significant and the effective co-optimization is required considering strong interconnections. This paper proposes a two-stage distributionally robust operation model for integrated water-energy nexus systems including power, gas and water systems networked with energy hub systems at a distribution level considering wind uncertainty. The presence of wind power uncertainty inevitably leads to risks in the optimization model. Accordingly, a coherent risk measure, i.e., conditional value-at-risk, is combined with the optimization objective to determine risk-averse operation schemes. This two-stage mean-risk distributionally robust optimization is solved by Bender's decomposition method. Both the day-ahead and real-time operation cost are minimized with an optimal set of scheduling the multi-energy infrastructures. Case studies focus on investigating the strong interdependencies among the four interconnected energy systems. Numerical results validate the economic effectiveness of IES through optimally coordinating the multi-energy infrastructures. The proposed model can provide system operators a powerful two-stage operation scheme to minimise operation cost under water-energy nexus considering risk caused by renewable uncertainties, thus benefiting customers with lower utility bills. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a novel two-stage coordinated volt-pressure optimization (VPO) for integrated energy systems (IES) networked with energy hubs considering renewable energy sources. The promising power-to-gas (P2G) facilities are used for improving the interdependency of the IES. The proposed VPO contains the traditional volt-VAR optimization functionality to mitigate the voltage deviation while ensuring a satisfying gas quality due to the hydrogen mixture. In addition to the conventional voltage regulating devices, i.e., on-load tap changers and capacitor banks, P2G converter and gas storage are used to address the voltage fluctuation problem caused by renewable penetration. Moreover, an effective two-stage distributionally robust optimization (DRO) based on Wasserstein metric is utilized to capture the renewable uncertainty with tractable robust counterpart reformulations. The Wasserstein-metric based ambiguity set enables to provide additional flexibility hedging against renewable uncertainty. Extensive case studies are conducted in a modified IEEE 33-bus system connected with a 20-node gas system. The proposed VPO provides a voltage-regulated economic operation scheme with gas quality ensured that contributes to high-quality but low-cost multi-energy supply to customers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Volt-VAR optimization (VVO) has been investigated extensively in power systems. However, under the era of integrated energy systems (IES), the growing interdependencies between different energy systems complicate traditional VVO. This is further hardened by incurred gas quality problems due to the hydrogen injection in IES, produced by widely applied power-to-gas (P2G) facilitates that couple between power and gas systems. This paper develops a two-stage volt-VAR-pressure optimization (VVPO) model for PV-penetrated IES to manage the variation of system voltages while managing gas quality indices. In addition to the traditional voltage regulating devices, P2G facilities, which can mitigate fluctuating PV output via converting the surplus generation into hydrogen, are also used for voltage management. A two-stage distributionally robust optimization (DRO) based on moment information is utilized to model PV uncertainty. A semidefinite programming model is formulated and finally solved by the constraint generation algorithm. A 33-bus-20-node IES is used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed VVPO on voltage management, ensured gas quality with high economic efficiency. The proposed VVPO is applicable to injecting other green gases into gas systems while ensuring power quality and enable system operators to provide low-cost but high-quality multi-energy to customers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Computational social science plays an important role in emergency management from a quantitative perspective. Reconstructing an individual-based social computing environment is crucial for both accurate computational experiments and determining optimal decisions. Here, the authors propose a formalization method to define basic componential models in the artificial society and the inner logic in these models. A detailed generation process is presented, and multisource statistical data, social interactive behavior, and multilayer social networks are integrated together. As an evaluation of the proposed framework, a virtual city of Beijing is reconstructed. Each citizen is endowed with demographic attributes, including age, gender, social role, correlated geographic locations, and multiple social relations. The generated synthetic population is statistically equivalent to the real population. Transmission experiments of influenza are performed in the reconstructed computational environment, and individual daily interacting behavior is tracked and analyzed. The results indicate that the framework can provide an effective methodology to reconstruct the computing environment in high resolution by using low-resolution statistical data, leading to better prediction and management of emergencies. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The detection of super-spreading events in infectious disease is crucial for public health emergency response. Here, heterogeneous and stochastic agent-based models explore the mechanism of super-spreading events. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

As part of ongoing efforts to contain the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, understanding the role of asymptomatic patients in the transmission system is essential for infection control. However, the optimal approach to risk assessment and management of asymptomatic cases remains unclear. This study proposed a Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, No symptoms, Hospitalized and reported, Recovered, Death (SEINRHD) epidemic propagation model. The model was constructed based on epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in China and accounting for the heterogeneity of social contact networks. The early community outbreaks in Wuhan were reconstructed and fitted with the actual data. We used this model to assess epidemic control measures for asymptomatic cases in three dimensions. The impact of asymptomatic cases on epidemic propagation was examined based on the effective reproduction number, abnormally high transmission events, and type and structure of transmission. Management of asymptomatic cases can help flatten the infection curve. Tracing 75% of the asymptomatic cases corresponds to a 32.5% overall reduction in new cases (compared with tracing no asymptomatic cases). Regardless of population-wide measures, household transmission is higher than other types of transmission, accounting for an estimated 50% of all cases. The magnitude of tracing of asymptomatic cases is more important than the timing; when all symptomatic patients were traced, tested, and isolated in a timely manner, the overall epidemic was not sensitive to the time of implementing the measures to trace asymptomatic patients. Disease control and prevention within families should be emphasized during an epidemic. Note to Practitioners -This article addresses the urgent need to assess the risk of another COVID-19 outbreak caused by asymptomatic cases and to find the optimal, most practical approach to asymptomatic case management. Previous studies mostly focused on the clinical and statistical characteristics of asymptomatic cases; few have evaluated the impact of asymptomatic case measures using mathematical modeling at the community scale. This study proposed a Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, No symptoms, Hospitalized and reported, Recovered, Death (SEINRHD) propagation model based on local community structures and social contact networks, according to the development characteristics and trend of COVID-19 in a Chinese community. The conclusion provides theoretical support for emergency work of relevant departments in different periods of an epidemic. In the early stages of the epidemic, timely detection and isolation of symptomatic patients should be a priority. Where there are surplus resources for epidemic prevention, the authorities should consider increasing the proportion of asymptomatic patients being traced. Epidemic prevention measures among family members should be a primary focus of attention. This combination of strategies can help reduce the rate of viral transmission and result in extinguishing the epidemic.