1. Value of early blood Th-1 cytokine determination in predicting severity of acute pancreatitis.
- Author
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Heresbach D, Letourneur JP, Bahon I, Pagenault M, Guillou YM, Dyard F, Fauchet R, Mallédant Y, Bretagne JF, and Gosselin M
- Subjects
- Acute Disease, Adult, Aged, Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Pancreatitis diagnosis, Predictive Value of Tests, Prognosis, Prospective Studies, ROC Curve, Sensitivity and Specificity, Severity of Illness Index, Biomarkers blood, Interleukins blood, Pancreatitis blood, Receptors, Tumor Necrosis Factor blood, Th1 Cells metabolism
- Abstract
Background: Early evaluation of the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) requires measurement of many variables within 48 h after admission. Septic complications (SC) are frequent, and preliminary studies have highlighted the value of prophylactic antibiotherapy; however, single and reliable predictive markers of sepsis are not yet available. The aim of this study was to assess the value of determining early blood Th-1 cytokines and their natural antagonists (interleukin-6 (IL-6), IL-1, IL-1ra, and the soluble form of tumor necrosis factor (sTNF) receptors RI and RII) to predict the severity and SC during AP., Methods: Thirty-seven patients with AP were prospectively included; 25 of them had severe AP, including 8 with SC. Serum cytokines were measured 48 h and 72 h after the onset of AP with an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The optimal severity or SC diagnostic thresholds was determined using receiver operative curves., Results: Severe AP in accordance with the Atlanta criteria were better predicted by C-reactive protein and IL-6 serum determination, albeit these levels could not predict absolutely the death of two patients. In severe AP cases (n = 25) the IL-1 to IL-1-ra ratio was lower in cases further complicated by sepsis ((6+/-4) 10(-3) versus (34+/-13) 10(-3), P < 0.05); moreover, sTNF RI (2497+/-270 pg/ml versus 2133+/-611 pg/ml, P < 0.05) and RII (3751+/-400 pg/ml versus 3045+/-509 pg/ml, P < 0.05) were higher in AP characterized by further SC. The IL-1 to IL-1-ra ratio and IL-1 concentration were dramatically decreased within the first 48 h ((0.4+/-0.4) 10(-3) versus (30+/-11) 10(-3), P < 0.05, and 0.3+/-0.3 versus 15+/-3 ng/l, P < 0.05) in patients with further infection of the pancreatic necrosis (n = 3). The SC diagnosis was better anticipated by an IL-1 to IL-1-ra ratio lower than 5 x 10(-3) or by an sTNF RI higher than 1750 pg/ml and sTNF RII higher than 2750 pg/ml, and the infection of the pancreatic necrosis by an IL-1 concentration <2 ng/l or an IL-1 to IL-1-ra ratio <2 x 10(-3)., Conclusion: Besides severity markers, IL-1, IL-1-ra, and sTNF RI and RII should be considered in base-line AP assays and, if confirmed by larger studies, could help to screen patients at risk for SC and candidates for prophylactic antibiotherapy with a good negative predictive value.
- Published
- 1998
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