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This paper focuses on emerging initiatives within the United Nations to treat the environment as a matter of peace and security. Historically, it has been much easier to discuss and act upon environmental issues within the UN system as matters of economic development and international law than to frame or act on environmental problems in terms of security, peace, and conflict. This paper identifies four specific focal points for the relatively recent emphasis on environment/conflict/peace linkages: efforts of the last two Secretaries-General to frame the problem in security terms, the Security Council's grappling with the problem of "conflict resources", the environmental dimensions of peacebuilding, and the links between climate change and international peace and security. The paper is part of a book project on the UN's uneven engagement with environmental concerns across its four core mandates: peace, development, international law, and human rights. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores possible politico-legal pathways for local communities vulnerable to global climate change. Specifically, Pacific SIDS face the challenge of adapting to the effects of climate change, which threaten their physical survival, culture, and way of life. To date, much of the climate change discourse surrounds mitigation (and to a lesser degree, adaptation) at the national level, without direct concern for theoretical and pragmatic consideration of communities within particular cultural and environmental contexts. This paper reviews personal interviews in the island atoll nation of Tuvalu in an attempt to understand the full contextual impacts of climate change. The paper examines this case in light of human security and environmental justice frameworks, and then suggests possible pathways forward for climate change adaptation in vulnerable communities. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The world is currently in an untenable position: global warming is worsening even as our understanding of climate science improves. Why is this the case? And what can be done to spur action? In this paper, we will interrogate this mismatch between knowledge and performance from a particular perspective â€" the perspective of human rights. Our goal is to argue that human rights discourses, mechanisms, and institutions might â€" indeed must â€" help overcome this disconnect between scientific knowledge and effective action on the problem of global climate change. Climate change is, at its base, a social rather than a scientific problem. At the root of this social problem lies injustice. The drivers of environmental change lie in social relations of consumption, reproduction, and exploitation, while the worst effects of climatic change will likely be faced by the most vulnerable. Scientific discourse has been allowed to obscure the social drivers of climate change, and to deflect attention away from the social changes that climate change demands. We need a new framework through which to analyze and act on this problem. This paper examines whether human rights can provide such a framework. Specifically, how might human rights reshape the debate over global warming and lead to different forms of legal and political action? Does the language of human rights draw attention to specific populations, geographies, and effects of “global” warming in ways that are politically meaningful? And how might the language of human rights help us to bridge the gap between knowledge and action? ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the uncertainties associated with strategies to increase energy production without contributing to global warming and climate change by expanding the nuclear energy sector. Nuclear energy has been proposed as a clean and safe alternati ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses fragmentation in the dialogue on the future of international climate regime by focussing on the US-inspired Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate (APP). The APP is an international climate agreement formed outside the UN in 2005 that involves China, India, South Korea, Japan, Canada, Australia and the US. The APP is directed at using industry specific public-private task forces to remedy informational and coordination failures in markets for cleaner technologies and management practices. The APP fails to regulate to place a price on carbon emissions or provide binding national targets for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Significantly, the APP model offers a subtle retreat from the burden sharing principle of common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) agreed between the developed and developing world in the UNFCCC. It favours a strengthened market liberal approach to international climate policy that recasts the relationship between developed and developing nations in responding to climate change in largely trade-based terms. The George W. Bush administration has heavily promoted the APP as a model for the future of the international climate regime. Key elements of the APP model were included in the APEC Sydney Declaration in 2007 and advocated by the US in the Major Economies Process during 2008. The strengthened market liberalism of the APP model signals a possible path for discussions on the post-2012 climate regime. However, a future climate regime based heavily on the APP model is unlikely to provide an effective global climate change response. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change due to global warming is but one of many issues confronting countries that they cannot successfully deal with on their own. The purpose of this paper is to ascertain why international attempts by governments and institutions to forestall climate change by regulating and reducing greenhouse gas emissions have not been successful. The question is answered through an empirical study of the international politics of regulating chemicals which lead to ozone depletion and comparing this with the politics surrounding CO2 emissions. Part I reviews the world's growing awareness of global environmental issues and the relatively successful attempts which have been made to govern the production of chlorofluorocarbons. Part II examines the growing influence of environmental NGOs on government's response to concerns about environmental degradation and the unsuccessful attempts by states to prevent climate change by reducing their carbon gas emissions. Part III compares and contrasts the politics of ozone depletion with the political complexity of the problem of climate change brought on by global warming and analyzes alternative strategies for regulating the production of greenhouse gas emissions and reducing deforestation. The Conclusions section then offers suggestions on how greenhouse gas emissions might be regulated by governments in the near term (utilizing existing laws and treaties), and even more effectively in the future, by developing new international environmental governance and regulation regimes. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the debate over the science surrounding climate change will continue, more presssing now is the debate over what policy actions are required to mitigate the threat of disruptive changes to the planet's climate. However, it is clear that changes are already occuring, and just as important as assessing options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are those aimed at adapting to the consequences of climate change. Among the most aggrieved persons from climate change may be those in developing countries where disruptive changes will be greatest and where adaptive resources are most limited. Residents of these areas typically produce the fewest GHG emissions and receive the fewest benefits from the economic activities that produce the emissions, and finding ways to help fund adaptation expenses is a moral imperative for those in the wealthy, high consuming societies. This paper explores options for framing the issue of funding climate adaptation efforts in the developing world. The goal is to identify and assess options and discuss how they might be integrated into a global climate change regime. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a conference paper titled "International Climate Change Negotiations: Social Justice and Security Implications" submitted for the International Studies Association meetings in Honolulu, Hawaii. It offers a brief review of contributions to and projected consequences of climate change global warming. It discusses the social justice implications and its likely effects on security.

What is the outlook for engaging the United States in international cooperation to mitigate climate change? The question is crucial, since any global effort to curb global warming will be unsatisfactory without U.S. participation. It is also a pressing question for Kyoto party countries, currently at a loss regarding how to reengage the U.S. in renewed global cooperation. We discuss the constellations of domestic pressure factors that influence policy outcome in favor or against reengagement. We start with a description of conceptual policy alternatives to the Kyoto Protocol that are important in U.S. policy discourse. We then go on to discuss recent trends in U.S. climate policy, and assess the degree to which they encourage reengagement. Finally, we describe some international factors that work for or against U.S. reengagement in the climate regime. We conclude that the possibility of reengaging the United States in a climate regime after 2012 continues to be small, since the constellations of domestic actors that constitute the political majority seem rather stable. Furthermore, as long as the domestic strategy for handling the climate change problem remains undecided, international reengagement is difficult. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pam Doughman, Ph.D. University of Illinois, Springfield, IL, pdoug2@uis.eduAllison M. Chatrchyan, Ph.D. Cornell University, Millbrook, NY, amc256@cornell.eduPaper presented at the 48th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, Chicago, Illinois. February 28 - 3 March 2007. http://www.isanet.org/chicago2007/, Panel: SC05.Abstract This paper argues that in the absence of mandatory federal action on climate change from the late 1990s, US states including CA, NY, Maine and others, and various regional climate change initiatives, took on a leading role in developing their own climate change policies, putting increasing pressure on the US government to address climate change at the federal level. The paper argues that federalism has played an essential role spurring state and regional leadership in the face of US inaction. Several cases of state climate policies, regional initiatives, and the interstate commerce in carbon are used to explore the conditions for sub-national actors to act as laggards or leaders in international environmental policy. The rejection of the Kyoto Protocol by President G.W. Bush was inconsistent with policy preferences at the state and local level in a number of states. In the absence of US federal support for reducing total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, voluntary and local measures arose to fill the unmet policy preferences. Regarding mandatory reductions, California and Northeastern states have taken the lead by setting caps on emissions and authorizing development of market-based mechanisms for meeting the caps. This paper argues that state leadership to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has helped spur change in policy at the federal level, including five major bills currently being proposed in Congress that would address climate change. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the relative versus absolute gains debate in the early 90s little research has been devoted to a) modifying the realist theory of international cooperation and b) testing the predictive power of such a modification. This paper first develops a model that demonstrates the explanatory power of a properly specified relative gains argument and second measures the level of cooperation achieved in different issue areas based on the Oslo-Potsdam solution. We develop two infinitely repeated n-actor relative gains models, one for excludable and one for non-excludable goods. In line with both realist and neoliberal reasoning we argue that relative gains will only matter if they are potentially large enough to be security relevant. We then show that in cases where relative gains matter (trade and global warming) such relative gains concerns only lead to a reduction in the level of cooperation if the benefits from cooperation are non-excludable. We further demonstrate that the relative gains argument also allows us to explain different levels of cooperation for different cases of public goods (ozone depletion versus global warming). The non-excludability of benefits leads to more severe restrictions in the attainable level of cooperation in cases where relative gains matter (global warming). The second half of the paper attempts to test the predictions of the models derived by using comparative statics. Based on the Oslo-Potsdam solution I estimate the level of cooperation achieved in three cases (trade, ozone depletion and global climate change) by determining the non-cooperative outcome, the collective optimum and the actual policy. I find that the evidence supports the theory and that the Oslo-Potsdam solution provides a very useful measurement concept which helps enhance the empirical testing of theoretical proposition. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent debate on concepts of regime effectiveness has established the so called Oslo-Potsdam solution as one of the two dominant approaches in the field. This paper suggests that while the Oslo-Potsdam solution is a very promising starting point, the concept needs to be adjusted to include measurements of regime effectiveness over time and that employing a broader concept of the level of cooperation to capture the loss of welfare prior to the establishment of a regime might be a useful additional measure.The Oslo-Potsdam solution to measuring effectiveness does not incorporate an explicit time dimension and thus does not measure the true extent of welfare loss and the true variation in the dependent variable. The paper suggests a way to remedy this situation and discusses the implication of measuring effectiveness over a time interval rather than at a unique point of assessment as practised by the Oslo-Potsdam solution. The crucial aspects of devising such a measurement concept are to define the start and endpoints of the interval over which to integrate and thus measure the loss of welfare. The paper develops these arguments and links them up with debates on the economics of global climate change, pure rates of time preferences and sustainability. The paper additionally suggests that a complete analysis of the time dimension suggests that regime effectiveness is a very useful but ultimately limited concept since it does not measure the loss of welfare prior to the establishment of a regime. I thus develop the complementary and broader concept of measuring the level of cooperation rather than regime effectiveness since the level of cooperation can be measured independently of the existence of a regime. I argue that not doing so might seriously bias results in comparative and other studies since the real loss of welfare is not taken into account when assessing the effectiveness of regimes only. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much of the international effort aimed at tackling climate change is related to the curbing of greenhouse gases emissions, while its human impact, especially in the South, is still vastly neglected by policy-makers. An important part of this human impact will be the forced displacement of populations, especially in low-elevated regions, such as islands, coastal and deltaic areas. Particularly at risk is the small atoll of Tuvalu, in the South Pacific Ocean, which is lowest-elevated state, and whose very existence is threatened by sea-level rise. The people of Tuvalu have reluctantly accepted the idea of relocation, and have started moving to New Zealand, under the terms of a negotiated migration scheme. Australia, which has not ratified the Kyoto Protocol, has refused to receive migrants from Tuvalu, and is now accused of ?eco-terrorism? by the authorities of the sinking atoll.Global warming is expected to force millions of people to relocate, and this paper looks at the possibilities of international cooperation in addressing this issue. Building on the case-study of Tuvalu, it examines how a global environmental responsibility could be shaped, and how the burden and responsibility of climate change-induced migrations could be shared and allocated. While the Kyoto Protocol provides an example of a burden-sharing scheme for the curbing of greenhouse gases emissions, such schemes are needed to meet the human cost of climate change such as the resulting forced migrations. Using the case of Tuvalu as a starting point, this paper tries to imagine which means of international cooperation could provide a new global public good : the protection of climate change ?refugees?. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 1993, Eugene Skkolnikoff, MIT professor and former US White House Staff member under Dr. James R. Killian of the Special Assistant to Dwight D.Eisenhower for Science and Technology, wrote that global warming may pose more directly than any other issue since the advent of nuclear weapons the question of whether technological change is leading, or will lead, to a revolutionary transformation in international politics.The International Polar Year 2007/8 comes almost 15 years since Skolnikoff made these assertions and since this time global discussion regarding climate change has only seemed to augment. If, in fact, Skkolnikoff‘s assessment is worth contemplation, then where and in what capacity are the impacts of climate change science coming to bare on global politics? And further, where can we best asses this process? This paper examines Skolnikoff’s affirmations about the role of climate change science as a harbinger of global political change as it relates to ongoing changes in international law. The context for this discussion revolves around this fourth IPY 2007/8The original intention of the IPY was to create an internationally coordinated effort to better understand meteorology. Over one hundred years later, the significance of meteorology has remained - if not evolving into - one of the most central international concerns marking our current epoch. As such, central to this introduction are two interdependent stories: the role of science in the polar regions and the significance of the IPY within a larger narrative of the modern international system. As the aims of the IPY 2007-2009 center in and around the study of climate change, this introduction specifically focuses on the role of climate change science in this IPY as a means to better understand current trends in global politics and international law. These include the trend away from state rights over resources and territory towards a stewardship notion of sustainable development. This focus is coupled by a more broad investigation into the emergence of new Arctic political actors participating in the governance of international science politics. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For a while, scholars used climate change policy-making in China as a rare, yet strong case to argue effects of international institution on domestic politics. Therefore, recent dramatic shift in China’s participation in Kyoto Protocol came as a shock. What are the factors that lead the Chinese bureaucrats to calculate and conclude that being part of the global climate change regime is not beneficial to its own agenda? In this paper, we first endeavor to sort out possible explanations for this puzzling change. Moreover, we will re-visit the literature and theories on international institutions, particularly on how domestic structures and agents could, in turn, hinder the spread and consolidation of international norms and agreed principles. For methodology, in addition to archive research, we will apply systematic interview data analysis. We will build upon Hongyuan Yu’s interview date of Chinese policy makers conducted during the period of early 2000s, and extend it to include around 40 in the second half of 2007. Our preliminary research hints that domestic bureaucratic bargaining stands out as the most weighing factor that determines the internalization process of international negotiation results. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Though it is often viewed by environmentalists as defeatist to seriously discuss adaptation to climate change (as opposed to mitigation), it is evident that many regions will be affected by the advance of global warming. This paper will outline the predicted impact of climate change on the world's most destitute peoples, most of them in the southern hemisphere but some in the far north. It will then evaluate the normative implications of international responses to date, including various capital and technology transfer mechanisms, and argue that in order to pursue global justice on this issue a plethora of associated problems, such as the impact of invasive species, infectious diseases, and reduced livelihood possibilities, must be addressed as well. In this sense global warming might act as a catalyst towards global equity, though most models of international relations would suggest otherwise. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Theories of environmental degradation as a predictor of armed conflict have gained momentum as scientists warn of the catastrophic consequences of global warming and climate change. This growing literature is conceptually based upon the notion that changes in the global environment, such as rising temperatures, land degradation, deforestation, and the declining supply of fresh water, generate fierce competition among protagonists and thus increase the chances of armed conflict and civil war. However, despite an increasing number of studies that emphasize the above causal relationship, the literature is mostly silent on the environmental consequences of civil war. In this study I engage the budding research on the environment and armed conflict and seek to examine the impact of civil war on the environment. I delineate the mechanism through which civil war leads to environmental destruction and furnish evidence from the Kurdish conflict in Turkey to substantiate the relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Commentators on both sides of the Atlantic have identified climate change as one of this century’s most important global problem. However, a major rift has arisen between Europe and the United States over how to best approach this challenge. Underlying the disagreement on the design of a political regime to combat global climate change – which culminated in President George W. Bush’s withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol and his administration’s refusal to play a constructive role in the negotiations of a post-2012 regime – has been a dispute over how urgent action, and inherently, how sound the science on climate change actually is. In this paper, we investigate the influence that the reports of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other prominent assessments have had on the political decision-making process of the United States. Our research shows that the IPCC has been important in reaching a scientific international consensus on the human influence on the atmospheric system and the potentially harmful consequences of climate changes; it also demonstrates, however, that the United States has refused to take responsibility for its share of the problem in response to that consensus. Moreover, the argument over scientific uncertainty has been used as a political weapon to defend inaction. The results of this study yield some important consequences for our general understanding of the science-policy and scientists-policymakers interaction. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated in 2007 that “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.” The IPCC expects that immediate effects include increased water availability in the moist tropics and high-latitudes, decreasing water availa ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The severity and extent of human insecurity and the consequences of environmental degradation are as great in the Horn of Africa as in any other region. Drought, water shortages, and desertification have produced famine and other forms of human insecurity, as well as weakened states, conflict and support for Islamic extremism and terrorism. Environmental degradation and resource scarcity have been largely demand-driven, especially among growing populations of land- and water-hungry pastoralists and farmers. Famine has been the result of the interplay of growing populations, environmental degradation and drought, as well as conflict and the lack of capacity of states to react. Horn governments, donors, UN agencies and NGOs have devised a range of policies and programs, including food security, early warning, and integrated population, health and environment programs, which have slowed but not reversed environmental degradation and human insecurity. Greater state capacity and local participation are needed to achieve sustainable development and human security. US efforts to bring sustainable development and human security to pastoralists in the Horn have the larger aim of winning hearts and minds in order to prevent support for Islamic extremism and terrorism; the success of these efforts is to be determined. The structural scarcity of Nile River water, a result of Egypt's insistence on a monopoly, has deterred riverine states and peoples from utilizing the water for irrigation and hydroelectric power. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil will gain a place as a significant player in the multi-polar international system taking shape since the end of the Cold War simply on the basis of its economic size and material capabilities. However, its potential to influence international outcomes is likely to be determined more by the capacity of the country's elites to identify and harness qualitative assets associated with its stable and democratic governance than by any hard power assets. Brazil is the quintessential soft power BRIC. Among the four BRICs, Brazil is the only one positioned to become a potential environmental power in a world increasingly preoccupied with global warming. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature at the intersection of International Relations and the politics of climate change has traditionally focused on competing explanations for the failure in tackling global warming in international institutions. It stands out that most research ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concerns on global warming and climate change made environment a central topic appealing trans-boundary solutions. Yet it is not possible to talk about a theoretical consensus. Neo-colonial approaches, as well as certain post-modern scholars, criticize th ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change could readily produce “hard security threats” by any reasonable definition of the phrase. By weakening rural economies, boosting unemployment, and dislocating people’s lives, global warming will increase the frustrations and anger of hundre ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Is climate change a valid national security issue for the United States? Even taking a narrow definition of national security, there are clearly ways in which climate change already constitutes a national security concern for the United States. This article evaluates a number of these potential linkages including the directs effects of climate change on the territorial United States, the effects of climate change on the country's extraterritorial interests, and the security externalities of energy and climate change. I offer an account of Ònational securityÓ that is consistent with conventional understandings of security but that also leaves room for environmental harms. In so doing, I also identify criteria by which climate change could constitute a threat to national security. While some of these linkages--the risks from rising sea levels--may have been over-dramatized by enthusiastic advocates, other examples--such as the risks of extreme weather events both to the homeland and to America's strategic interests overseas--may be more likely to cause security problems for the United States in the short- to medium-run. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]