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Traditional studies on the carrying capacity of groundwater resources mainly focus on a comprehensive evaluation, and this paper provides quantitative prediction and early warning on the carrying capacity of groundwater resources, which is important for groundwater management and protection. This study constructed an early warning indicator system for the carrying capacity of groundwater resources, established an early warning method on the carrying capacity of groundwater resources, determined the early warning grades of Henan Province and various cities from 2023 to 2025, and analyzed the spatial distribution pattern. The results showed that the early warning grades of Henan Province from 2023 to 2025 were mild warnings. In the subsystems, the early warning grades of the groundwater resources and economic society systems were mild warnings, while the early warning grades of the ecological environment system were moderate warnings. The early warning grades of the carrying capacity of groundwater resources in all cities were basically mild or moderate warnings, showing a downward trend. This study establishes an early warning method on the carrying capacity of groundwater resources that includes the selection of early warning indicators, prediction of indicators, and determination of the early warning grades which can be a reference for other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rapid advance of industrialization and urbanization and the intensified impact of global climate change, the contradiction between the global water shortage and economic growth has become prominent. This paper, taking Henan province as an example, analyzed the influence of water resource policy on regional economic growth through a calculable general equilibrium model and further discussed the relevant policy recommendations. The results showed that the improvement of water supply, water efficiency and water technology could promote the growth of the regional economy and result in a positive effect on regional GDP, employment and resident income. However, the rise of water price has a negative impact on regional economic development, mainly reflected in regional GDP, employment and household income. The improvement of water price, water efficiency and water conservancy technology would lead to a decrease in regional water consumption, while only the increase of the water supply would lead to an increase in water consumption. Accordingly, the paper puts forward policy suggestions, such as accelerating the improvement of water conservancy facilities, establishing a reasonable water price mechanism and actively exploring experience in water conservation and emission reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]