Search

BackgroundSocial connectedness decreases human mortality, improves cancer survival, cardiovascular health, and body mass, results in better-controlled glucose levels, and strengthens mental health. However, few public health studies have leveraged large social media data sets to classify user network structure and geographic reach rather than the sole use of social media platforms. ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to determine the association between population-level digital social connectedness and reach and depression in the population across geographies of the United States. MethodsOur study used an ecological assessment of aggregated, cross-sectional population measures of social connectedness, and self-reported depression across all counties in the United States. This study included all 3142 counties in the contiguous United States. We used measures obtained between 2018 and 2020 for adult residents in the study area. The study’s main exposure of interest is the Social Connectedness Index (SCI), a pair-wise composite index describing the “strength of connectedness between 2 geographic areas as represented by Facebook friendship ties.” This measure describes the density and geographical reach of average county residents’ social network using Facebook friendships and can differentiate between local and long-distance Facebook connections. The study’s outcome of interest is self-reported depressive disorder as published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. ResultsOn average, 21% (21/100) of all adult residents in the United States reported a depressive disorder. Depression frequency was the lowest for counties in the Northeast (18.6%) and was highest for southern counties (22.4%). Social networks in northeastern counties involved moderately local connections (SCI 5-10 the 20th percentile for n=70, 36% of counties), whereas social networks in Midwest, southern, and western counties contained mostly local connections (SCI 1-2 the 20th percentile for n=598, 56.7%, n=401, 28.2%, and n=159, 38.4%, respectively). As the quantity and distance that social connections span (ie, SCI) increased, the prevalence of depressive disorders decreased by 0.3% (SE 0.1%) per rank. ConclusionsSocial connectedness and depression showed, after adjusting for confounding factors such as income, education, cohabitation, natural resources, employment categories, accessibility, and urbanicity, that a greater social connectedness score is associated with a decreased prevalence of depression.

BackgroundMonitoring disease incidence rates over time with population surveillance data is fundamental to public health research and practice. Bayesian disease monitoring methods provide advantages over conventional methods including greater flexibility in model specification and the ability to conduct formal inference on model-derived quantities of interest. However, software platforms for Bayesian inference are often inaccessible to nonspecialists. ObjectiveTo increase the accessibility of Bayesian methods among health surveillance researchers, we introduce a Bayesian methodology and open source software package, surveil, for time-series modeling of disease incidence and mortality. Given case count and population-at-risk data, the software enables health researchers to draw inferences about underlying risk and derivative quantities including age-standardized rates, annual and cumulative percent change, and measures of inequality. MethodsWe specify a Poisson likelihood for case counts and model trends in log-risk using the first-difference (random-walk) prior. Models in the surveil R package were built using the Stan modeling language. We demonstrate the methodology and software by analyzing age-standardized colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence rates by race and ethnicity for non-Latino Black (Black), non-Latino White (White), and Hispanic/Latino (of any race) adults aged 50-79 years in Texas’s 4 largest metropolitan statistical areas between 1999 and 2018. ResultsOur analysis revealed a cumulative decline of 31% (95% CI –37% to –25%) in CRC risk among Black adults, 17% (95% CI –23% to –11%) for Latino adults, and 35% (95% CI –38% to –31%) for White adults from 1999 to 2018. None of the 3 observed groups experienced significant incidence reduction in the final 4 years of the study (2015-2018). The Black-White rate difference (per 100,000) was 44 (95% CI 30-57) in 1999 and 35 (95% CI 28-43) in 2018. Cumulatively, the Black-White gap accounts for 3983 CRC cases (95% CI 3746-4219) or 31% (95% CI 29%-32%) of total CRC incidence among Black adults in this period. ConclusionsStalled progress on CRC prevention and excess CRC risk among Black residents warrant special attention as cancer prevention and control priorities in urban Texas. Our methodology and software can help the public and health agencies monitor health inequalities and evaluate progress toward disease prevention goals. Advantages of the methodology over current common practice include the following: (1) the absence of piecewise linearity constraints on the model space, and (2) formal inference can be undertaken on any model-derived quantities of interest using Bayesian methods.