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BackgroundWorsening loneliness and social isolation during the COVID-19 pandemic have become serious public health concerns worldwide. Despite previous research reporting persistent loneliness and social isolation under repeated emergency declarations and prolonged pandemics, long-term studies are needed to identify the actual conditions of loneliness and social isolation, and the factors that explain them. ObjectiveIn this study, 3 web-based surveys were conducted at 1-year intervals during the 2 years after the first state of emergency to examine changes in loneliness and social isolation and the psychosocial factors associated with them in the Japanese population. MethodsThe first survey (phase 1, May 11-12, 2020) was conducted at the end of the first emergency declaration period, the second survey (phase 2, June 14-20, 2021) was conducted at the end of the third emergency declaration period, and the third survey (phase 3, May 13-30, 2022) was conducted when the state of emergency had not been declared but many COVID-19–positive cases occurred during this period. We collected data on 3892 inhabitants (n=1813, 46.58% women; age: mean 50.3, SD 13.4 y) living in the 4 prefectures where emergency declaration measures were applied in phases 1 and 2. A linear mixed model analysis was performed to examine the association between psychosocial variables as explanatory variables and loneliness scores as the dependent variable in each phase. ResultsWhile many psychosocial and physical variables showed improvement for the 2 years, loneliness, social isolation, and the relationship with familiar people deteriorated, and the opportunities for exercise, favorite activities, and web-based interaction with familiar people decreased. Approximately half of those experiencing social isolation in phase 1 remained isolated throughout the 2-year period, and a greater number of people developed social isolation than those who were able to resolve it. The results of the linear mixed model analysis showed that most psychosocial and physical variables were related to loneliness regardless of the phase. Regarding the variables that showed a significant interaction with the phase, increased altruistic preventive behavior and a negative outlook for the future were more strongly associated with severe loneliness in phase 3 (P=.01 to

BackgroundLockdowns and stay-at-home orders announced internationally for COVID-19 have led to physical and social distancing, with reports of many individuals experiencing social isolation (SI) and loneliness. Although the emergency declaration in Japan was declared as a “mild” lockdown requested by the government without penalties for violations, the lockdown measures, including SI, had several influences on people’s lives and mental health as in other countries. Furthermore, Japan declared a state of emergency multiple times; thus, it is necessary to examine the influence of the transition of SI caused by repeated emergency declarations and the deterioration of mental health associated with these changes. ObjectiveThis study longitudinally investigated the transition of SI and its related factors during the mild lockdown under 2 declared states of emergency in Japan and analyzed psychosocial characteristics by extracting clusters where people with specific transition patterns of SI predominated. MethodsWe collected data on 7893 inhabitants (3694 [46.8%] women, 49.6 [SD 13.7] years old) living in the 7 prefectures where the initial emergency declaration was applied. The investigations took place online in the final phase of the first and second states of emergency: phase 1 (between May 11 and 12, 2020) and phase 2 (between February 24 and 28, 2021). Nonparametric Bayesian coclustering was used to visualize the exhaustive interaction structure between the transition pattern of SI and the psychosocial variables. ResultsThere were no improvements in social networks and loneliness between the 2 phases, although psychological distress significantly improved and depression slightly decreased. Overall, 3868 (49%) of the 7893 participants remained socially isolated through phases 1 and 2, and 947 (12%) were socially isolated in phase 2, even though they were not socially isolated in phase 1. More participants experienced persistent SI in unmarried, childless, and low-household-income groups. The persistent-SI group had fewer cohabitants than other transition pattern groups. The nonparametric Bayesian coclustering results showed that most clusters, including participants without SI throughout phases 1 and 2, had healthy behaviors, more interactions, good relationships, and less loneliness and psychological stress. Furthermore, the cluster in which relationships deteriorated in phase 1 recovered in phase 2. Comparatively, the clusters with SI throughout phases 1 and 2 were divided into clusters with increased loneliness and psychological stress; clusters were close to participants’ average scores in this study. The clusters with increased loneliness and psychological stress were notable for deteriorating relationships and less online interaction. ConclusionsThis study revealed the actual state of transition of SI and related psychological, social, and behavioral factors under repeated declarations of a state of emergency. These results should help construct intervention methods that fit individual characteristics of people in SI during a pandemic.