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3 results on '"International Food Policy Research Institute (US)"'

1. Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

Author

National Science Foundation (US), National Natural Science Foundation of China, International Food Policy Research Institute (US), CGIAR (France), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (France), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (UK), China Scholarship Council, Department of Agriculture and Water Resources (Australia), Ministero delle Politiche Agricole Alimentari e Forestali, Gorgan University, Victoria State Government, National Institute of Food and Agriculture (US), Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (Germany), German Research Foundation, Academy of Finland, LabEx Agro, Natural Resources Institute Finland, Liu, Bing, Martre, Pierre, Ewert, Frank, Porter, John R., Challinor, Andrew J., Müller, Christoph, Ruane, Alexander C., Waha, Katharina, Thorburn, Peter, Aggarwal, Pramod K., Ahmed, Mukhtar, Balkovič, Jurajb, Basso, Bruno, Biernath, Christian, Bindi, Marco, Cammarano, Davide, De Sanctis, Giacomo, Dumont, Benjamin, Espadafor, Mónica, Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi, Ferrise, Roberto, García Vila, Margarita, Gayler, Sebastian, Gao, Yujing, Horan, Heidi, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Izaurralde, Roberto C., Jones, Curtis D., Kassie, Belay T., Kersebaum, Kurt C., Klein, Christian, Koehler, Ann-Kristin, Maiorano, Andrea, Minoli, Sara, Montesino San Martin, Manuel, Kumar, Soora Naresh, Nendel, Claas, O'Leary, Garry, Palosuo, Taru, Priesack, Eckart, Ripoche, Dominique, Rötter, Reimund P., Semenov, Mikhail A., Stöckle, Claudio, Streck, Thilo, Supit, Iwan, Tao, Fulu, Van der Velde, Marijn, Wallach, Daniel, Wang, Enli, Webber, Heidi, Wolf, Joost, Xiao, Liujun, Zhang, Zhao, Zhao, Zhigan, Zhu, Yan, Asseng, Senthold, National Science Foundation (US), National Natural Science Foundation of China, International Food Policy Research Institute (US), CGIAR (France), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (France), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (UK), China Scholarship Council, Department of Agriculture and Water Resources (Australia), Ministero delle Politiche Agricole Alimentari e Forestali, Gorgan University, Victoria State Government, National Institute of Food and Agriculture (US), Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (Germany), German Research Foundation, Academy of Finland, LabEx Agro, Natural Resources Institute Finland, Liu, Bing, Martre, Pierre, Ewert, Frank, Porter, John R., Challinor, Andrew J., Müller, Christoph, Ruane, Alexander C., Waha, Katharina, Thorburn, Peter, Aggarwal, Pramod K., Ahmed, Mukhtar, Balkovič, Jurajb, Basso, Bruno, Biernath, Christian, Bindi, Marco, Cammarano, Davide, De Sanctis, Giacomo, Dumont, Benjamin, Espadafor, Mónica, Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi, Ferrise, Roberto, García Vila, Margarita, Gayler, Sebastian, Gao, Yujing, Horan, Heidi, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Izaurralde, Roberto C., Jones, Curtis D., Kassie, Belay T., Kersebaum, Kurt C., Klein, Christian, Koehler, Ann-Kristin, Maiorano, Andrea, Minoli, Sara, Montesino San Martin, Manuel, Kumar, Soora Naresh, Nendel, Claas, O'Leary, Garry, Palosuo, Taru, Priesack, Eckart, Ripoche, Dominique, Rötter, Reimund P., Semenov, Mikhail A., Stöckle, Claudio, Streck, Thilo, Supit, Iwan, Tao, Fulu, Van der Velde, Marijn, Wallach, Daniel, Wang, Enli, Webber, Heidi, Wolf, Joost, Xiao, Liujun, Zhang, Zhao, Zhao, Zhigan, Zhu, Yan, and Asseng, Senthold

Abstract

Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre‐industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre‐industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi‐crop and multi‐climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by −2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and −2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980–2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter‐annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer—India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production is therefore not

Published
2019

2. Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein

Author

International Food Policy Research Institute (US), CGIAR (France), European Commission, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (France), National Natural Science Foundation of China, Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (Germany), Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (UK), Innovation Fund Denmark, China Scholarship Council, Ministero delle Politiche Agricole Alimentari e Forestali, Academy of Finland, Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Department of Agriculture and Water Resources (Australia), University of Melbourne, Grains Research and Development Corporation (Australia), National Institute of Food and Agriculture (US), German Research Foundation, Gorgan University, Asseng, Senthold, Martre, Pierre, Maiorano, Andrea, Rötter, Reimund P., O'Leary, Garry, Fitzgerald, Glenn J., Girousse, Christine, Motzo, Rosella, Giunta, Francesco, Babar, M. Ali, Reynolds, Matthew, Kheir, Ahmed, M .S., Thorburn, Peter, Waha, Katharina, Ruane, Alexander C., Aggarwal, Pramod K., Ahmed, Mukhtar, Balkovič, Juraj, Basso, Bruno, Biernath, Christian, Bindi, Marco, Cammarano, Davide, Challinor, Andrew J., De Sanctis, Giacomo, Dumont, Benjamin, Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi, Fereres Castiel, Elías, Ferrise, Roberto, García Vila, Margarita, Gayler, Sebastian, Gao, Yujing, Horan, Heidi, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Izaurralde, Roberto C., Jabloun, Mohamed, Jones, Curtis D., Kassie, Belay T., Kersebaum, Kurt C., Klein, Christian, Koehler, Ann-Kristin, Liu, Bing, Minoli, Sara, Montesino San Martin, Manuel, Müller, Christoph, Kumar, Soora Naresh, Nendel, Claas, Olesen, Jørgen E., Palosuo, Taru, Porter, John R., Priesack, Eckart, Ripoche, Dominique, Semenov, Mikhail A., Stöckle, Claudio, Stratonovitch, Pierre, Streck, Thilo, Supit, Iwan, Tao, Fulu, Van der Velde, Marijn, Wallach, Daniel, Wang, Enli, Webber, Heidi, Wolf, Joost, Xiao, Liujun, Zhang, Zhao, Zhao, Zhigan, Zhu, Yan, Ewert, Frank, International Food Policy Research Institute (US), CGIAR (France), European Commission, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (France), National Natural Science Foundation of China, Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (Germany), Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (UK), Innovation Fund Denmark, China Scholarship Council, Ministero delle Politiche Agricole Alimentari e Forestali, Academy of Finland, Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Department of Agriculture and Water Resources (Australia), University of Melbourne, Grains Research and Development Corporation (Australia), National Institute of Food and Agriculture (US), German Research Foundation, Gorgan University, Asseng, Senthold, Martre, Pierre, Maiorano, Andrea, Rötter, Reimund P., O'Leary, Garry, Fitzgerald, Glenn J., Girousse, Christine, Motzo, Rosella, Giunta, Francesco, Babar, M. Ali, Reynolds, Matthew, Kheir, Ahmed, M .S., Thorburn, Peter, Waha, Katharina, Ruane, Alexander C., Aggarwal, Pramod K., Ahmed, Mukhtar, Balkovič, Juraj, Basso, Bruno, Biernath, Christian, Bindi, Marco, Cammarano, Davide, Challinor, Andrew J., De Sanctis, Giacomo, Dumont, Benjamin, Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi, Fereres Castiel, Elías, Ferrise, Roberto, García Vila, Margarita, Gayler, Sebastian, Gao, Yujing, Horan, Heidi, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Izaurralde, Roberto C., Jabloun, Mohamed, Jones, Curtis D., Kassie, Belay T., Kersebaum, Kurt C., Klein, Christian, Koehler, Ann-Kristin, Liu, Bing, Minoli, Sara, Montesino San Martin, Manuel, Müller, Christoph, Kumar, Soora Naresh, Nendel, Claas, Olesen, Jørgen E., Palosuo, Taru, Porter, John R., Priesack, Eckart, Ripoche, Dominique, Semenov, Mikhail A., Stöckle, Claudio, Stratonovitch, Pierre, Streck, Thilo, Supit, Iwan, Tao, Fulu, Van der Velde, Marijn, Wallach, Daniel, Wang, Enli, Webber, Heidi, Wolf, Joost, Xiao, Liujun, Zhang, Zhao, Zhao, Zhigan, Zhu, Yan, and Ewert, Frank

Abstract

Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32‐multi‐model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low‐rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2. Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by −1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of −8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.

Published
2019

3. Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

Author

Mónica Espadafor, Bing Liu, Frank Ewert, Mukhtar Ahmed, Liujun Xiao, Thilo Streck, Senthold Asseng, Soora Naresh Kumar, Gerrit Hoogenboom, John R. Porter, Sara Minoli, Margarita Garcia-Vila, Joost Wolf, Juraj Balkovic, Alex C. Ruane, Giacomo De Sanctis, Pierre Martre, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Marijn van der Velde, Dominique Ripoche, Roberto Ferrise, Davide Cammarano, Fulu Tao, Bruno Basso, Christoph Müller, Heidi Webber, Yujing Gao, Andrea Maiorano, Christian Klein, Ann-Kristin Koehler, Andrew J. Challinor, Reimund P. Rötter, Garry O'Leary, Manuel Montesino San Martin, Eckart Priesack, Peter J. Thorburn, Heidi Horan, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Iwan Supit, Zhigan Zhao, Taru Palosuo, Belay T. Kassie, Christian Biernath, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Katharina Waha, Sebastian Gayler, Daniel Wallach, Yan Zhu, Marco Bindi, Zhao Zhang, Claas Nendel, Enli Wang, Curtis D. Jones, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Mikhail A. Semenov, Claudio O. Stöckle, Benjamin Dumont, National Science Foundation (US), National Natural Science Foundation of China, International Food Policy Research Institute (US), CGIAR (France), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (France), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (UK), China Scholarship Council, Department of Agriculture and Water Resources (Australia), Ministero delle Politiche Agricole Alimentari e Forestali, Gorgan University, Victoria State Government, National Institute of Food and Agriculture (US), Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (Germany), German Research Foundation, Academy of Finland, LabEx Agro, Natural Resources Institute Finland, National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricutural University, Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE), Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut für Nutzpflanzenwissenschaften und Ressourcenschutz (INRES), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Fonctionnement et conduite des systèmes de culture tropicaux et méditerranéens (UMR SYSTEM), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier (CIHEAM-IAMM), Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (KU), Lincoln University, University of Leeds, CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change,Agriculture and Food Security, International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Agriculture and Food, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre [Inde] (CIMMYT), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR)-Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University (WSU), Department of Agronomy, University of El-Tarf, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Ecosystem Services and Management Program, affiliation inconnue, Comenius University in Bratislava, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences [East Lansing], Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, W. K. Kellogg Biological Station (KBS), Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology (BIOP), German Research Center for Environmental Health - Helmholtz Center München (GmbH), Department of Agrifood Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence [Firenze] (UNIFI), The James Hutton Institute, GMO Unit, European Food Safety Authority = Autorité européenne de sécurité des aliments, Université de Liège, University of Córdoba, Department of Crop Sciences, Georg-August-University [Göttingen], Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Food Systems Institute [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Texas A and M AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University System, European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture (CESCRA), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Agriculture Victoria Research, Institute for Natural Resources, Agroclim (AGROCLIM), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Göttingen - Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Rothamsted Research, Wageningen University and Research Centre (WUR), Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research, Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch] (CAS), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Plant Production Systems, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University (BNU), Department of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University (CAU), Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), and Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), Grant/Award Number: BB/, P016855/1

Subjects
[SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Food prices, Water en Voedsel, Climate change, Atmospheric sciences, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Model ensemble, Extreme low yields, model ensemble, 1.5°C warming, Temperate climate, [SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, Environmental Chemistry, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, 2. Zero hunger, Global and Planetary Change, WIMEK, Water and Food, Food security, Ecology, business.industry, wheat production, Crop yield, Global warming, food security, 15. Life on land, PE&RC, climate change, Plant Production Systems, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, Plantaardige Productiesystemen, extreme low yields, 8. Economic growth, Environmental science, Wheat production, Water Systems and Global Change, business, Cropping
Abstract

Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre‐industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre‐industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi‐crop and multi‐climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by −2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and −2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980–2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter‐annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer—India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming, We thank the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for support. B.L., L.X., and Y.Z. were supported by the National Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars (31725020), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31801260, 51711520319, and 31611130182), the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu province (BK20180523), the 111 Project (B16026), and the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD). S.A. and B.K. received support from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) through the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight project, the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), and the CGIAR Research Program on Wheat. P.M, D.R., and D.W. acknowledge support from the FACCE JPI MACSUR project (031A103B) through the metaprogram Adaptation of Agriculture and Forests to Climate Change (AAFCC) of the French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA). F.T. and Z.Z. were supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41571088, 41571493, 31761143006, and 31561143003). R.R. acknowledges support from the German Federal Ministry for Research and Education (BMBF) through project “Limpopo Living Landscapes” project (SPACES program; grant number 01LL1304A). Rothamsted Research receives grant‐aided support from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) Designing Future Wheat project [BB/P016855/1]. L.X. and Y.G. acknowledge support from the China Scholarship Council. M.B and R.F. were funded by JPI FACCE MACSUR2 through the Italian Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forestry Policies and thank A. Soltani from Gorgan Univ. of Agric. Sci. & Natur. Resour for his support. K.C.K. and C.N. received support from the German Ministry for Research and Education (BMBF) within the FACCE JPI MACSUR project. S.M. and C.M. acknowledge financial support from the MACMIT project (01LN1317A) funded through BMBF. G.J.O. acknowledges support from the Victorian Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, the Australian Department of Agriculture and Water Resources. P.K.A. was supported by the multiple donors contributing to the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). B.B. received financial support from USDA NIFA‐Water Cap Award 2015‐68007‐23133. F.E. acknowledges support from the FACCE JPI MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (2815ERA01J) and from the German Science Foundation (project EW 119/5‐1). J.R.P. acknowledges the support of the Labex Agro (Agropolis no. 1501‐003). La. T.P. and F.T. received financial support from the Academy of Finland through the project PLUMES (decision nos. 277403 and 292836) and from Natural Resources Institute Finland through the project ClimSmartAgri.

Published
2019
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