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Water option trading aims at solving the problem of uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources. With the change of global climate, rainfall has become an important factor leading to the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources. In this paper, Markov chain is used to divide and forecast the rainfall scenarios. On the basis of rainfall forecast, the related costs of water option trading are determined. The forecast results of rainfall index are integrated into the determination of the ultimate overprice of water options. The improved Black- Scholes option pricing model is used to determine the rights of water options trading based on the forecast results of rainfall. Finally, the rationality of the calculation results is verified by using the extended linear expenditure model, which proves the rationality of the transaction price determined by the model. Taking Guangdong province as an example, this paper verifies the necessity of incorporating rainfall index into water option trading and the rationality of the related costs of water option trading determined by the model, and proves the superiority of fluctuating water price over stepped water price. Water option trading considering rainfall fully reflects the relationship between supply and demand in water market, and improves the scientificity of water option trading pricing in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At present, North China faces serious groundwater overmining problem. In the action plan of comprehensive control of groundwater overmining in North China, it is clearly proposed to strengthen agricultural water saving, and adjust the structure of agricultural planting. Farmers' cognition of water saving irrigation technology is closely related to water saving effect. This paper takes the survey of 269 farmers in Guyuan county, Zhangjiakou city, Hebei province as a sample, uses structural equation model to explore intrinsic mechanism of farmers' cognition of water saving irrigation technology. Results show that, the path of personal characteristics of farmers, characteristics of household production, characteristics of policy advocacy, farmer cognition of water resources scarcity are 0.186, 0.157, 0.469 and 0.200. respectively. It is indicated that water saving irrigation technology subsidy, technical training and visiting high efficiency water saving demonstration area are effective in improving farmers' cognition of water saving irrigation technology. Therefore, on the basis of reliance on government technical financial support, we should find out the farmers' cognition differences in water saving irrigation techniques, and perfect the publicity system of water saving irrigation technology so as to enhance farmers' enthusiasm to use water saving irrigation technology in North China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is important that developing and utilizing of unconventional water resources such as pond water in the lowland area of North China Plain due to the shortage of fresh water resource. Thus, making clear the storage capacity of pond as irrigation water resources in years with different amount of precipitation and studying the relationship between precipitation and pond water storage are of great significance to the usages of multiple water resources in agriculture. Taking Nanpi County in Hebei Province as study area, this paper used the methods of Cl- and stable isotope balance to calculate the contribution of precipitation to pond water in rainy season. Besides, based on the Landsat TM remote sensing data during 2013- 2015, the improved normalized difference water body index was used to extract the pond information and analyze the water storage capacity of ponds in Nanpi County in years with different amount of precipitation. The results showed that precipitation is the main source of pond water, and the groundwater was the second source. According to the calculation of Cl- and stable isotope, precipitation accounts for 74.3%-86.0% of water supply for medium and small ponds during the rainy season in wet year, however, it accounts for only less than 30% of water supply for large ponds. The ponds are mainly small ponds with area less than 0.5 hm2. The number and the water storage area of ponds with different areas changed with precipitation. The water storage capacity of ponds in flat water year, dry year and wet year were 1.49×107, 0.84×107 and 1.90× 107 m3, respectively. The results provide important infromation for the pond water management and utilization in the lowland area of North China Plain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]