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Prologue: The Demographer's Ken: 50 Years of Growth and Change.- Prologue: The Demographer's Ken: 50 Years of Growth and Change.- Population Structure.- Age and Sex.- Population Distribution and Suburbanization.- Marriage and Family.- Demography of Gender.- Demography of Aging.- Demography of Race and Ethnicity.- Labor Force.- Population Processes.- Fertility.- Infant Mortality.- Adult Mortality.- Internal Migration.- International Migration.- Demography of Social Stratification.- Population and the Social Sciences.- Social Demography.- Organizational and Corporate Demography.- Urban and Spatial Demography.- Anthropological Demography.- Economic Demography.- Historical Demography.- Ecological Demography.- Biodemography.- Mathematical Demography.- Political Demography.- Applied Demography.- Fertility Planning.- Small-Area and Business Demography.- Health Demography.- The Demography of Population Health.- Population Policy.- Epilogue: Needed Research in Demography.

This document which is the 7th major cross-national report in a US Census Bureau series on the worlds elderly/older populations focuses primarily on people aged 65 years old and over. Organized into 11 chapters it aims to explore the numbers proportions and growth rates of the elderly population as well as summarize socioeconomic statistics for both developed and developing nations. Chapter one covers the introduction. In chapter two the demographics of aging are discussed. Life expectancy and changing mortality is emphasized in the third chapter. Chapter four deals with health and disability while chapter five details urban and rural dimensions. Chapters six and seven tackle sex ratios and marital status and living arrangements respectively. Family and social support of older people is discussed in chapter eight. Chapter nine focuses on educational attainment and literacy. Chapter 10 details on labor force participation and retirement. Finally chapter 11 provides a discussion on pensions and income security.

THIS ARTICLE PRESENTS the findings of my recent research on the role of population statistics and related data systems, methods, and personnel in planning and carrying out the Holocaust. Specific attention is given to events in Germany, Poland, France, the Netherlands, and Norway. In addition, the article examines how population data were used in the Nuremberg War Crimes Trials following the conclusion of World War II.' This research was based on an extensive review of contemporaneous and secondary sources that deal with the Holocaust and the Nuremberg trials, the relevant national data systems, and the activities of a number of the statisticians and demographers involved. No attempt was made, however, to develop new estimates of Holocaust mortality, nor was any evidence found to call into question the mortality approximations made over 50 years ago. In many respects, examining the use of statistics and statistical systems in the service of genocide is a more productive undertaking than trying to fine-tune the estimates of Holocaust victims or, indeed, the mortality caused by any genocide. Such figures are often clouded in both secrecy and uncertainty, so that beyond a certain point, efforts at refining estimates of genocide mortality have little purpose or prospect of success. This is a conclusion on which many Holocaust scholars, prosecutors, and statisticians seem to agree (Fein 1981; Hilberg 1985: 1202; Spirer and Spirer 1993: 3). On the other hand, the largely unrecognized role that statistics and statistical systems played in the Holocaust has implications for the investigation and criminal prosecution of genocide more generally as well as for fostering standards of ethical behavior among those working as statisticians and demographers. I also hope that knowledge of this historical experience may contribute to the development of more prudent national statistical policies now and in the future. This article thus addresses an understudied borderland between demography, statistical policy, human rights defense, and Holocaust scholar

"For some years it has been the policy of Statistics Norway to collaborate with various governmental agencies in order to use administrative registers in statistics production. This policy has been supported politically, and a new Statistics Act has been useful in these efforts. The purpose of this paper is to present the strategy and methodology used to produce statistics in general, census statistics in particular, when based on a combined use of administrative registers and directly collected data. Experiences from Norwegian censuses since 1960 will be presented."

This paper compares characteristics of recent immigrant arrivals in the United States using two measures from the decennial U.S. census: the came-to-stay question and the migration question. We show that a little under 30 percent of immigrants who reported they came to stay between 1985–1990 on the 1990 U.S. Census Public Use Micro Sample were resident in the United States on April 1, 1985. A similar analysis of the 1980 censue reveals that 22 percent of immigrants who reported they came to stay between 1975–1980 lived in the United States on April 1, 1975. Thus among recent arrivals, defined as those who reported they came to stay in the quinquennium preceding the census, a large number were resident in the United States five years before the census date. Furthermore, the proportion of recent arrivals present in the United States five years before the census increased between 1975–1980 and 1985–1990. We show that the profile of recent arrivals is sensitive to their migration status. Generally, in both the 1975–1980 and 1985–1990 cohorts, those resident in the United States five years before the census have significantly less schooling and lower incomes than those who were abroad. Accordingly, we argue that estimates of the skill levels and hourly wages of recent arrivals to the United States vary with the way arrival is measured. Researchers who rely on Public Use samples of the U.S. census for their data should be aware that the year of entry question implies a broader definition of arrival than the migration question. We caution that immigration researchers should consider the idea of arrival more carefully to help distinguish newcomers from the resident foreign born.

This study estimates the maternal mortality rate in Taiwan during 1984-88 based on vital statistics records and interviews with family members of deceased mothers aged 10-49 years. Findings indicate that 27717 women aged 10-49 years died in Taiwan during 1984-88. 22121 deaths were followed up in interviews with family members; 479 deaths occurred during pregnancy or shortly after pregnancy ended. 233 deaths were due to direct maternal causes. 41 maternal deaths were also identified from the 5050 death certificate records that were not followed-up. The official maternal mortality rate during 1984-88 was 10.3 deaths/100000 live births. This study estimated 274 maternal deaths and a revised maternal mortality rate of 16.4 deaths/100000 live births. Pregnancy-related mortality during 1984-88 declined from 35.5/100000 to 28.9/100000. Maternal mortality declined from 20.3/100000 to 16.4/100000. The maternal mortality rate declined by 20% and the nonmaternal mortality rate declined by 17%. Maternal mortality was reestimated to account for the 19% of women who died during the study period who were not followed-up. The number of maternal deaths increased by 13 deaths among the 5050 non-followed-up deaths to 287 maternal deaths. The reestimated maternal mortality rate was 17.2 deaths/100000 live births. This study demonstrates that half of the actual maternal deaths can be identified from vital reporting systems and hospital records.

This paper examines population change in the upper Braldu Valley of the Karakoram range in northern Pakistan between 1900 and 1990. Population has declined over the 90-year period of observation and the majority of that decline is accounted for by females....The paper discusses apparent demographic trends in a contemporary and historical context and questions the extension of vague unqualified context-independent population statistics to an area where apparently they do not apply. It argues that only by interpreting demographic change from within such a local context can the relevance of population control policies be scrutinized. This paper is not an exhaustive demographic analysis but presents data from a little-studied region of the Himalayan area and is meant to open avenues for future research there. (EXCERPT) (SUMMARY IN FRE AND GER)

One in every six U.S. birth certificates have no information on the age of the baby's father; for more than four in 10 babies born to adolescent women, no data are available on the father's age. Information from mothers aged 15-49 who had babies in 1988 and were surveyed in the National Maternal and Infant Health Survey indicates that fathers for whom age is not reported on the birth certificate are considerably younger than other fathers. In 1988, 5% of fathers were under age 20, and 20% were aged 20-24. Fathers typically are older than mothers, especially when the mothers are teenagers. Fathers who are unmarried, black or partners of lower income women are younger than other fathers.

Regional concentration characterizes the distribution of Native Americans. They have been concentrated in the rural American West through three centuries of governmental intervention to create `Indian States. The last four decades have witnessed important changes in the geography of Native Americans. The majority of them are now urban residents and migration and more precise census enumeration have resulted in significant population growth in non-Indian States. In spite of these changes the current patterns of Native American population are only marginally different from the geography consequent to three centuries of governmental intervention in locational decisions. (EXCERPT)

There are three sources of information about undercounts in nineteenth-century U.S. censuses: demographic analyses of net undercounts by age, sex, and race at the national level; record-linkage studies of gross undercounts for local communities; and contemporary testimony of the types and bases of underenumeration. This article reviews the strengths and limitations of each of these sources, assesses the extent of their agreement, and discusses the bases of their disagreement.

This paper outlines the development of U.S. national vital statistics based on the local registration of vital events in the United States during the twentieth century including the organization of the National Vital Statistics System. Current data developments and selected publications of the National Center for Health Statistics are presented as they relate to vital statistics. The paper concludes with an overview of ongoing efforts at the local state and federal levels to improve the timeliness and quality of vital statistics through the redesign and automation of data collection processing and dissemination systems. (EXCERPT)

"During the 20th century, estimates of the British Jewish population have been obtained by applying appropriate death-rates to communal mortality data. This death-rate method has become increasingly sophisticated with respect to the death-rates used. The exercise reported here covers more than 22,000 deaths recorded in the community over the 5-year period [1984-88].... An estimate of 308,000 is suggested for the community, in which deaths-related data are augmented by information about births within the community."

"This paper describes the 1991 census in England and Wales: how it was planned and implemented and how its results are being assessed. The description brings out the tradeoffs that are necessary in undertaking a census, and some respects in which plans for a census in 2001 will need to take account of experience of that in 1991." Consideration is given to such issues as confidentiality, the ethnic group question, underenumeration, census output, and future plans for census improvement. A discussion of the paper by various contributors and an author's response is included (pp. 230-40).

Data from the 1984 Malaysian Population and Family Survey were matched with birth registration records for 1985-87 to determine the accuracy of statements regarding desired family size that were reported in a household survey in predicting subsequent reproductive behavior. The findings of this study were that stated fertility intention provides fairly accurate forecasts of fertility behavior in the subsequent period. In other words, whether a woman has another child is predicted closely by whether she wanted an additional child. Informational, educational, and motivational activities of family planning programs would, therefore, have greater success in reducing family size if fertility intentions were taken into account.

The paper summarises the findings of an international survey of census processing methods used in the 1990 round. Extensive use is made of computers although the technologies involved vary considerably from country to country. There is more extensive discussion of the use made of computer-assisted and automatic coding non-keyboard data entry methods and the establishment of population databases. The geographical scope is worldwide. (SUMMARY IN FRE) (EXCERPT)

This paper examines recent developments and prospects for population statistics in the former Soviet Union whose dissolution provides both opportunities and problems. It is important for scholars to be aware of past limitations of Soviet data since the formation of independent states has neither removed bureaucratic impediments to the production of high-quality data nor has it led to a population more ready to answer questions fully. Temporarily at least there is a decrease in the amount and comparability of available information and in some instances in its quality. We begin with an overview of the system used to gather population statistics in the former Soviet Union and its inherent problems. We then discuss the challenges faced by the newly independent countries and the changes they need to make to achieve global comparability including a shift toward the use of standard international definitions and away from political restrictions on data availability. (EXCERPT)

In this study randomly occurring twin first births are used to estimate the effect of unplanned births on specific outcomes (income high school graduation current or ever marriage labor force participation poverty and receiving welfare) "unconfounded by differences in womens unobserved characteristics or ability to influence their outcomes." Cohort analysis was performed for births in 1966 and 1969 births in 1976 and 1979 and outcomes in 1970 and 1980. The research approach was based on methodology used by Rosenzweig and Wolpin Logit models and linear regressions models were used in the estimation of impact. Data were obtained from the 1970 and 1980 Census on a sample of 904 mothers twins and 1836 mothers with a singleton first birth born between 1952 and 1970 in the 1970 sample. There were 2028 mothers with twins and 3938 with a singleton birth first-born between 1962 and 1980 in the 1980 sample.

This paper gives a brief introduction to multiple imputation for handling non-response in surveys. We then describe a recently completed project in which multiple imputation was used to recalibrate industry and occupation codes in 1970 U.S. census public use samples to the 1980 standard. Using analyses of data from the project we examine the utility of analysing a large data set having imputed values compared with analysing a small data set having true values and we provide examples of the amount by which variability is underestimated by using just one imputation rather than multiple imputations. (EXCERPT)

U.S. census officials in the 1970s changed the label for the person listed first in a household from head to householder. This essay places this shift in terminology into historical perspective by examining the meanings of family concepts held by census-takers and by the Americans they enumerated. Even in the traditional era of the family roughly before 1800 household headship was more a consequence of other attributes than an independent source of status or power. Both then and in the modern period that followed the implications of being a head or one of the heads of a household depended on the context. While a more individualistic notion of the family has developed there is still considerable continuity in the conceptions of the family. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)

Results of the provision census of India 1991 are given for population growth literacy and urbanization. Results were made available only 1 month after the count was taken and then at the end of 1991. Data are collected by states (25) and 7 territories for literacy and population. Urban/rural density and literacy data are collected for 429 districts and 4689 towns. Population totaling 843.9 million makes it the 2nd most populous country in the world (16% of world population with 2.42% of land area). Population explosion occurred after the 1940s and the growth rate has declined somewhat to 23.50% during 1981-91. Demographic transition may be occurring. The highest population densities are in the Indus-Ganges-Brahmaputra plains in the north the deltas of Mahanadi Godavari and Kavery rivers in the east and Kerala districts in the west. The lowest growth rates were in Kerala and Tamil Nadu in the recent decennial period. Delhi has the highest growth rate. Literacy improved from 43.56% in 1981 to 52.11% in 1991. South India has higher literacy than the north areas. Kerala ranks the highest followed by Tamil Nadu. Female literacy increased the fastest. Low literacy is evident in Rajasthan (20.84%) Bihar (23.10%) and Uttar Pradesh (26.02%). The states with high female literacy also have low birth rates. Exceptions are Nagaland and Mizoram with high female literacy and high population growth rates due to the influences of tradition; Delhi Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Chandigarh also have high growth rates. Migration and immigration contribute to this growth. Urbanization has slowed. 25.72% (217 million) of the population are urban. The decline has been from 3.83 between 1971 and 1981 to 3.09 between 1981 and 1991. States with high population growth in the preceding decade slowed growth and vice versa. The number of cities with >100000 population increased from 216 in 1981 to 296 in 1991 and growth has increased from 60.42% to 65.20% between 1981 and 1991. The annual exponential growth rate of urban population is greater than in the rural population. Male number dominate in cities (822 females/1000 males). 23 million plus cities had 33% of Indian urban population in 1991; the largest populations were in Bombay (growth rate of >46%) Delhi (46%) Madras (25%) and Calcutta (19%).

Ethnic census and racial classifications have many taxonomic and political problems particularly in Mauritius. The goal of capturing multicultural populations into ethnic and political groups is confounded by intermarriage between cultural groups linguistic and cultural assimilation and religious conversion. Using too general a category prevents a racial classification. The census in Mauritius had become politicized due to the British colonization with an attempt to identify self identified communities and then in the name of equality abandoning these distinctions. The history of ethnic mixing and census classification is delineated and the effects of constitutional communities are discussed. The census in 1830 adopted a classification system of European Free Black and Slave and amended in 1834 to Europeans Free Black and Apprentices (freed slaves). After Indian migration form 1834 the categories became unmixed Indian and General including Europeans and anyone of African origin. In 1891 the category Indo-Mauritian was included. By 1901 there was an attempt to classify according to anthropological distinctions: European (whites mixed and colored) African and Chinese within the General category. Other Indian was merged finally in 1944 with Indo-Mauritian because of the decline in the other Indian category. In 1952 the classification of name religion mother tongue birth place and nationality into an assigned population group became increasingly constrained. Physical appearance was not a measure for grouping. In 1962 the householder determined the population group identification. Religion particularly among Indians was a determining factor and among the Chinese there was a common ethnicity. A community based constitution required representation by community and defined the communities. However political changes in 1982 prompted removal of all community categories from the census of 1982 and the pattern continued for 1990. After 1944 there were increasingly greater community groupings by ethnic group particularly among the Chinese but in general the tendency was for an integrated urban society which was unaffected by the influences of segregation from the institutionalized communalism of the constitution.

The 1991 census contained for the first time a question on the ethnic group of each member of the population of Great Britain. This paper reports on how a question was developed which has a sufficiently high degree of acceptance from all the main ethnic groups and which is answered sufficiently accurately to justify inclusion in the census. (EXCERPT)

6. Expectations of Life: A Study in the Demography, Statistics, and History of World Mortality. By H. O. Lancaster. ISBN 0 387 97105 X. Springer, Heidelberg, 1990. xvi + 606pp. DM 320.

Since the 1950 U.S. census demographic methods based on the fundamental balancing equation of demography have played an important role in the evaluation of the census net undercount. Application of this set of methods called demographic analysis results in national estimates of the net undercount for age-race-sex groups. Although results of demographic analysis are readily available in Bureau of the Census publications the procedures used to estimate each of the components of population change are less well-known. In this paper we review the historical foundation of demographic analysis beginning with Coales 1950 census evaluation project and concluding with the recent evaluation of the 1990 census. We examine each of the components of the method how their estimation has changed over time and how they were estimated for the 1990 census. (EXCERPT)

The dragon appears every 12 years in the Chinese zodiac and the Dragon Year is considered favorable to new business marriages and births. In recent Dragon Years of 1976 and 1988 fertility rates surged among the Chinese in Taiwan Hong Kong especially in Singapore and Malaysia (24- 26%). However this phenomenon did not occur in the Peoples Republic of China and before 1976 such preference had not been found in any Chinese population. The Dragon Year baby boom seems to have stemmed from hazily defined folk beliefs. A field study was conducted in the fall of 1990 comparing Chinese of different social backgrounds from TAipei Taichung Hong Kong Guangzhou Penang and Singapore. Data including vital statistics were collected and Chinese and English language daily newspaper and periodicals were scanned. Demographic history between 1916-88 shows that before 1964 there were no Dragon Year preferences anywhere. By 1976 the Dragon Year crude birth rate (CBR) ranged from +16% in Taiwan to -13% in China. In 1988 the CBR was +25% in Singapore and Malaysia and -4% in China. Marital fertility was low in preindustrial China compared with Europe as apothecaries carried contraceptives sexual behavior in marriage was regulate and beliefs in zodiacal animals in astrology impacted births. In 1950 births fell among Chinese in Singapore in the ominous Year of the Tiger. There was also a fall in fertility during the 1986 Tiger Year in Singapore Malaysia Taiwan and Hong Kong. Zodiacal birth timing was possibly influences by the 1966 Japanese Year of the Fire Horse that cut fertility by 25% to forestall the birth of girls destined to murder their future husbands. Other explanations include the increase of birth cohorts owing to the exodus of refugees after the Communist takeover in China the resurgence of the economies and the adherence to tradition among emigre Chinese for preservation of Chinese identity.

This report provides the first reliable statistical data on fertility patterns and the family planning program in the Socialist Republic of Vietnam. Findings are from the 1988 Demographic and Health Survey of Vietnam and the 1989 census survey. The data show that the total fertility rate has declined from over 6 children per woman in the early 1970s to under 4 in the later 1980s. Contraceptive prevalence for modern methods is estimated at 37 percent among married women of reproductive age in 1988. The average duration of breastfeeding is over 14 months; marriage is relatively late. The IUD is the most common contraceptive method and abortion is widespread. The major factors likely to influence fertility and family planning in the future are the government's population policy, improved access to modern methods of contraception, and the institution of new economic policies that are currently under way in Vietnam.

From the 1990 China Census vital statistics and rates geographic patterns minority nationalities urbanization and migration and illiteracy and educational levels are examined and interpretations made. In spite of a low birth rate and a declining fertility rate Chinas population continued to expand during the 1980s by 16 million people annually. Rigorous family planning practices have made China distinctive. The future prospects in an older population with a smaller family size continued substantial population growth and transition from a predominately agricultural economy are unemployment problems. Spatial representation is provided in 1982-90 for the rate of net natural increase of population and the % increase of population as well as the levels of urbanization for 1990. Software packages that were utilized include: a Quattro spreadsheet for entry of demographic variables Classy for classification Atlas Graphics for a digitized boundary file of China and EGAPaint for cartographic effects. Chinas population increases during the 1980s resulted from large number of reproductive aged women. Net natural increases vary among the 30 1st order administrative regions. Provinces with high minority populations such as Anhui Tibet Xinjiang and Ningxia had the highest rates. The lowest rates were in Zhejiang Sichuan Liaoning and 3 national municipalities: Shanghai Beijing and Tianjin. The annual crude birth rate was 20.98/1000 and has been stable since 1982. There was a small increase in the male to female ratio of 106.6 males/100 females from 106.3 in 1982. The geographic concentration of population is in the eastern half of the country although the culture and civilization began in the middle and lower Yellow River basin. Although the populations in the west are smaller Tibet and Xinjiang have the fastest growing populations but they remain low density populations. The spatial distribution of population varies greatly. Increased migration and mobility do not lend themselves to easy interpretation of causes of growth and patterns of growth. There are 55 recognized minorities and number 91 million in 1990 (8% of total population) or an increase of 24 million from 1982. Minorities tend to be concentrated in border areas. With improved measures of urbanization the 1990 census reported 26.2% urban or a 20.6% increase over 1982. The large cities are Shanghai Beijing and Tianjin. High levels of urbanization and per capita income are found in coastal and northeastern areas such as Liaoning Jilin and Heilongjiang as well as interior regions such as Xinjiang Inner Mongolia and Qinghai. It is suggested that there has been sizeable Han migration to these interior areas. In 1990 16% were illiterate although Tibet had 44%. Educational levels are rising.

The authors discuss issues to be considered in developing planning strategies for the 1991 census of Canada. Aspects considered include funding respondents willingness to cooperate public distrust quality maintenance international cooperation census content and dissemination and research plans. (ANNOTATION)

Quantitative historians who mine diverse sources of evidence usually fret over the quality of their raw materials. Most papers that introduce new sources of data attempt to explain who originally collected the evidence, why it was collected, and how the actual use of the data may differ from the original intentions. These discussions often include estimates of omissions or biases in the records and may explain the sensitivity of results to underlying assumptions.With a few notable exceptions, scholars have given surprisingly little attention to the quality of census data (see Ginsberg 1988; Furstenberg et al. 1979; Sharpless and Shortridge 1975). This neglect is remarkable in view of the public debate over the accuracy of the modern censuses, the conventions of scholarly scrutiny that apply to other types of records, and the widespread use made of census documents by nearly all disciplinary approaches to study of the past. Stimulated in part by the declining costs of entering and managing large databases, historians have intensively used the manuscript schedules of population for the nineteenth century, and numerous projects were recently completed or are planned for those of the early twentieth century (e.g., Ruggles and Menard 1990). Researchers have also made considerable use of additional schedules collected by the U.S. census beginning in the mid-nineteenth century, including those for slaves, manufacturing, and agriculture.

As a percentage of the female expatriate labor force in Kuwait, Asians increased from 13 percent in 1965 to 68 percent in 1985. A major reason for this is the increase in domestic servants, especially in Kuwaiti households, 62 percent having at least one servant. Maids come mainly from Sri Lanka, India and the Philippines. A majority are married, aged 20–39 and earn KD 39 (US$130) a month. Some are faced with horrific living conditions. In contrast, the professional and clerical females earn KD242 (US$800). Regression analysis indicates the wage differentials between Asian and national women to be significant and indicative of discrimination.

"The census of population represents a rich source of social data. Other countries have released samples of anonymized records from their censuses to the research community for secondary analysis. So far this has not been done in Britain. The areas of research which might be expected to benefit from such microdata are outlined, and support is drawn from considering experience overseas. However, it is essential to protect the confidentiality of the data. The paper therefore considers the risks, both real and perceived, of identification of individuals from census microdata. The conclusion of the paper is that the potential benefits from census microdata are large and that the risks in terms of disclosure are very small. The authors therefore argue that the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys and the General Register Office of Scotland should release samples of anonymized records from the 1991 census for secondary analysis."

This paper compares the direct and indirect methods used to measure adult mortality in the developing world. No other approach can substitute fully for accurate and complete vital registration but in many countries it is unrealistic to expect the registration system to cover the majority of the population in the foreseeable future....The difficulties involved in measuring adult mortality using surveys and other ad hoc inquiries are discussed....While the choice of methods must depend on each countrys situation direct questions require very large samples and are unreliable in single-round inquiries. On the other hand although indirect methods provide less detailed and up-to-date information than is ideal they are adequate for many practical purposes. In particular the experience of the 1980s suggests that questions about orphanhood perform better than earlier assessments indicated and recent methodological developments have circumvented some of the limitations of the indirect approach. (EXCERPT)

This report explains that while official figures indicate that between 1982-1987 Chinas urban population more than doubled these facts are somewhat misleading considering that it is not migration but the reclassification of what constitutes urban that is primarily responsible for the massive growth of in the number urban dwellers. Since the revolution China has viewed large cities as detrimental to the social environmental and economic well-being of the population favoring the development of small cities and towns. The government has instituted strict measures to control the migration to cities. Nonetheless the urban population has increased dramatically. But an analysis of a 1982 census and a 1987 national survey reveals that this growth is mostly due to reclassification (officials hope that by assigning them urban status previously rural towns and villages can exercise greater autonomy and financial power). During the period Chinas urban population increased from 206.4 million to 503.6 million and the level of urbanization has risen from 20.6% to 46.6%. Other factors have also been involved in the growth of the urban population: the recognition that large cities play an important role in economic development and temporary migrants -- a "floating population" of 50 million. But for the most part reclassification has been the main factor. And this development has led changes in the characteristics of the urban population which more and more resembles the rural population. The age composition of cities has decreased the sex ratio has decreased and the number of agricultural workers among the urban population has increased.

Addis Ababa Population and Housing Census data from 1984 were analyzed by 4 methods to approach the best fertility estimate for the city. This survey asked every woman aged 10 years or older how many children were born within the last 12 months, and the total number of live-born children ever born. These data could be in error due to misreporting of other children of extended families, including stillbirths, omitting infants who died, adult children or offspring of other husbands, all tending to make reported fertility decrease with age. According to United Nations classification, these data were highly inaccurate, particularly the age-sex reporting. The reported age-specific fertility and average parity by age groups are tabulated. The estimated total fertility rate by the Coale and Demeny formula is 5.89, compared to that from raw data of 3.14. Fertility by the Brass method produced a median of 6.5. The Gompertz relational method of Brass resulted in a median total fertility rate of ranging from 1.99-5.29 at various age points. The Brass-Arriaga method generated a median estimate of 6.39 and a mean of 6.06. Taking all the estimates into account the most plausible estimate of fertility is around 6.

1. Population Statistics: A Review of UK Sources. By B. Benjamin. ISBN 0 566 05731 X. Gower, Aldershot, 1989. xii + 356 pp. £45.

This volume is 1 of a series aimed at converting the vast statistical yield of the 1980 US census into authoritative analyses of major trends and changes in American life. This volumes main objective is to interpret the redistribution patterns of the 1970s and early 1980s in light of the changing social and economic contexts for redistribution that emerged during this period taking cognizance of the major explanations and theories that have been offered to account for these new patterns. Part 1 comprising chapters 3-6 pertains to redistribution across regions and metropolitan areas. This portion of the monograph provides an overview of the new regional and metropolitan area redistribution patterns by evaluating the pervasiveness of the post-1970 redistribution reversals as well as shifts in the demographic components of change that underlie them. It examines the impact of 1970-1980 growth and decline on population and household subgroups in various areas and undertakes a separate examination of redistribution patterns determinants and consequences for the black population. Part 2 of this monograph comprising chapters 7-11 evaluates post-1970 shifts in central city-suburban redistribution within the nations 39 largest metropolitan areas. It also documents aggregate population changes for central cities and suburbs along with their underlying demographic components. It devotes the most attention to shifts in the racial and socioeconomic selectivities that have become associated with post-1970 suburbanization and their impacts on the central city. It provides careful evaluation of selective post-1970 city-suburb redistribution tendencies with the aid of rich area-based summary data from the 1970 and 1980 decennial censuses. It evaluates the extent to which the 1970s shifts in racial segregation the decline of full-family households and the rise of the so-called service city have effected beneficial demographic changes in large central cities. The final chapter ties together this studys major results and underlying perspectives. It reviews the most important influences on redistribution in the post-1970 period and speculates about future redistribution tendencies that could emerge.

In this paper we consider Rasch measurement methodology as an alternative to conventional U.S. Census Bureau methodology for evaluating the quality of data obtained using different measurements of the same characteristic. Rather than assuming like the Census approach that respondents have true states corresponding to the categories of a questionnaire item the Rasch approach assumes that measuring instruments and survey respondents vary continuously on one or more common dimensions called latent traits. Unlike the Census approach the Rasch approach requires that the properties of measuring instruments be invariant across different subclasses of respondents generating parameter estimates that are sufficient statistics for elementary discrete sampling models. The different conclusions that can be drawn from the Census and Rasch approaches are illustrated by an evaluation of questionnaire items designed to measure the limitation or prevention of work because of physical or mental disability. (EXCERPT)

Despite the importance of demographic trends in the USSR for all aspects of Soviet society not a single volume has been published to date on the results of the 1979 census. This article examines the highlights of the information released in journals and in the general news media ventures inferential judgments to fill in gaps in what has been released and points to selected implications of these data for future Soviet population growth or lack of it. Major changes occurring in the structure of the Soviet population--differential rates of population growth among different national groups; failure of the male population to regain a normal share of the total population in the postwar period; uneven geographic distribution of the young; and an aging of the overall population are discussed. (authors) (summaries in ENG FRE SPA)

The concept of the family life-cycle has been central to a substantial body of literature in both demography and family history.1 Because the information necessary for a full description of the family life-cycle is often difficult to obtain in most of the studies made, twentieth-century perioddata have been used. Glick has provided a somewhat longer time series with his description of the life-cycle of the American family beginning with cohorts born during the latter part of the nineteenth century, although he was forced to use a combination of data sets and various estimation techniques.2 Even with the longer time series generated by Glick, it is fair to say that the portrait of the American family life-cycle which begins with cohorts of women born during the 1880s reflects a 'modern' pattern. This modern pattern emerges from an analysis of a population in which the life-cycle was strongly influenced by declining and controlled fertility, improving levels of infant survival and increasing parental life expectancy. Evidence of the nature of the family life-cycle in the United States under earlier and very different, demographic conditions is not in general available.' It is difficult to estimate patterns of change in the family life-cycle for the entire American population during the nineteenth century, but it is feasible to secure estimates for segments of the American population. In this paper, for example, we shall deal largely with a frontier population. It is also a population which is unique in its high level of fertility, consequently providing us with an opportunity to examine the nature of the life-cycle under conditions of natural fertility. This paper is intended to achieve the following specific purposes: to extend the study of the family lifecycle to selected birth cohorts born in the United States during the nineteenth century (1800-69), arid to examine the features of the family life-cycle under conditions of high natural fertility.

The author reports on experiences with Chinas 1982 census which covered approximately one billion people and 19 census items. It is noted that "the postenumeration sample survey indicates that the quality of the census enumeration is: 0.071% of overcounts and 0.056% of undercounts. The paper presents principles governing quality control in the population census and explains a series of quality control procedures adopted to reduce possible errors originating in census planning enumeration and data processing." (EXCERPT)

This monograph reports on studies based on a demographic and disease surveillance system maintained for 8 years in a rural area of Machakos District Kenya by the Medical Research Centre in Nairobi. This surveillance system made it possible to conduct a number of population-based longitudinal studies on various aspects of maternal and child health. The studys a aims were to obtain accurate data on 1) morbidity and mortality from measles whooping cough acute respiratory infections and diarrhea in children 0-4 years old; 2) nutritional status and health behaviors and attitudes; 3) maternal and perinatal mortality in relation to delivery care; and 4) vital statistics for a vital registration system. Approximately 4000 households were visited biweekly (until September 1978) and then monthly (until April 1981). The longitudinal studies covered child growth pregnancy outcome nutritional status in pregnancy and in infants and vaccine trails for measles and diptheria pertussis and tetanus (DPT). Cross-sectional studies considered a number of environmental variables including socioeconomic status sanitation and attitudes and behavior related to pregnancy measles and diarrhea. Demographic studies examined migration patterns and the impact of urban residence on fertility. Agricultural studies focused on food production and availability. Weather stations monitored rainfall temperature and humidity. The study population comes from a Bantu tribe the Kamba; their cooperation with the study was excellent except in the taking of blood samples. 2 continual problems were the shortage of middle-level administrative staff and data processing bottlenecks.

Alternative models are presented for representing coverage error in surveys and censuses of human populations. The models are related to the capture—recapture models used in wildlife applications and to the dual-system models employed in the vital events literature. Estimation methodologies are discussed for one of the coverage error models. The theoretical foundations of the methodology are developed and distinctions are made between two kinds of error: (a) sampling error and (b) error associated with the model. An example involving data from the 1980 U.S. census is presented. The problem of adjusting census and survey data for coverage error is also discussed.

Background information is presented on Bohol 1 of the islands of the Philippines. Facts concerning demography religion economics agriculture social institutions and population dynamics are included. The population of the island is young with nearly 1/2 under 15. Due to outmigration of working-age people the dependency ratio on the island is higher than usual. From the time of the 1st census in 1903 to the census of 1979 the population had increased more than 3-fold. If population growth increases at this pace the small island will soon be overcrowded.

Since local authorities have a particular need for accurate population information for small areas they have developed various methods for obtaining up-to-date population data. The paper examines in some detail one technique the enhancement of electoral registers drawing up on the experience of [Scotlands] Strathclyde Regional Council. Conclusions are drawn regarding the effectiveness of this technique and its potential for further development in the United Kingdom. (EXCERPT)

This monograph presents the available knowledge about abortion practices in Thailand through data gathered by the Population Council Regional Office in Bangkok. Abortion in Thailand is legal only to protect the health of the mother; however the term not having been defined by the Thai courts it has been variably interpreted by physicians and medical leaders usually in a very restrictive sense. Available information about induced abortion in Thailand represents only a small part of the actual size of procedures being performed. Data collected on 81 practitioners in 60 districts from 48 provinces revealed that most abortions are practiced during the first 2 weeks and that 80% are induced by massage. The average annual caseload of each practitioner was 356 procedures yielding an estimated 300.000 rural abortions for 1978 i.e. a rural rate of 37 abortions per 1000 women aged 14-44 a rate higher than that in countries where abortion is legal. Hospitalization for illegal abortion complications is steadily on the increase in all Thai hospitals. The consequences on maternal health of illegal abortion can be very severe and have an effect on future reproductive capacity. Moreover health facilities in rural areas are inadequate and constraints against obtaining an abortion often delay procedures. According to hospital data 60 to 80% of Thai women do not use contraception and there is a high rate of contraception failure among contraception users; an extremely high percentage of women seek abortion more than once. Thailand with an estimated 300.000 abortions/year would experience 100.000 prevented births i.e. 5-6% of the total births from this means alone. A survey of physicians attitudes toward abortion revealed that most would perform an abortion in case of rape risk of fetal abnormality on a girl under 13 or in case of contraception failure; the general public holds more or less the same opinion with more liberal views in urban than in rural areas. Even if data for Thailand are not available there is no doubt that a more liberal abortion law would result in reduced morbidity and mortality rate. The monograph includes a carefully annotated bibliography of 29 papers related to abortion in Thailand and published between 1972-81. It also includes sections of the Thai penal code of 1956 relating to offences of abortion and offences of sex and an appendix with information on abortion legislation and practices in Indonesia Taiwan Malaysia the Philippines Sri Lanka Bangladesh Hong Kong South Korea India China and Singapore.

The author discusses the increased availability of demographic data stored in machine-readable files. She describes the types of MRDF produced in the United States Canada Europe Latin America and Asia and Oceania. The final section of the paper presents examples of citations to MRDF (ANNOTATION)

TEXTBOOKS, in an effort to enlighten students, commonly provide various assorted tables on such topics as population growth, immigration, military forces, and other census findings. Because of dissimilarities between past and present, these numbers are often difficult to compare, interpret, or put in historical perspective. The purpose of this article is to show how ratios can be used by teachers to convert population statistics to equivalent and comparable values in helping students better understand the historical and contemporary implications of what is being studied.