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Pan, Y.; Yin, S.; Chen, Y.; Yang, Y.; Xu, Z., and Xu, C., 2019. A practical method to scale the sedimentary parameters in a lightweight coastal mobile bed model. Journal of Coastal Research, 35(6), 1351–1357. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. The coastal mobile bed model (CMBM) is an important approach to understand coastal sedimentary processes. The scaling of sedimentary parameters in a reduced-scale CMBM is one of the key procedures ensuring the reliability of the model, and the scaling relationships should be derived according to the similarity of dominant sedimentary process, with some less important similarity relationships relaxed. For a CMBM of which the processes of mobilization and fall of sediment are in transitional conditions, the scaling of sedimentary parameters is especially difficult because no mechanism dominates and the relationships between parameters are complicated. This paper proposes a local curve-fitting (LCF) method to avoid complicated relationships in deriving scaling relationships by fitting the complicated expressions with a simple relationship in the study range so that the scaling relationships can satisfy corresponding similarity criterion. The LCF method is introduced via the scaling of a reduced-scale profile model of the evolution of a submerged berm under the effects of small waves. The scaling relationships are derived according to the similarities of sediment mobilization, similarities of the fall of sediment, and Froude criterion. A mobile bed model was created based on the calculated of the LCF method, and the model results show the same evolution trend with field data, which proves the reasonability and validity of the LCF method. The LCF method provides a practical method to facilitate the deriving of scaling relationships of a CMBM of which the processes of mobilization and fall of sediment are in transitional conditions. It also provides a reference for other reduced-scale laboratory tests with complicated relationships between parameters but with limited study ranges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Pan, Y.; Chen, Y.-P.; Yuan, J.-Y.; Liu, Y., and Xu, Z.-S., 2018. Error-Estimation Ensemble method in the forecasting of tropical cyclone tracks. In: Shim, J.-S.; Chun, I., and Lim, H.S. (eds.), Proceedings from the International Coastal Symposium (ICS) 2018 (Busan, Republic of Korea). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 85, pp. 771–775. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. Tropical cyclones pose a great threat to coastal areas and accurate forecasting of their tracks is important for reducing and preventing coastal disasters. Multi-mode super-ensemble method was proposed to make full use of the forecasted tracks from different forecasting institutes. This paper proposed a modified multi-mode super-ensemble method, namely Error-Estimation Ensemble method, to overcome the shortcomings of traditional multi-mode super-ensemble method. The hypothesis, methodology and implementation of Error-Estimation Ensemble method are described. The EEE hindcast results of two typical tropical cyclones and all tropical cyclones that affects China coast are compared to those of four forecasting institutes. The comparison show that the EEE method reduces both the mean error and root-mean-square error of tropical cyclone track forecast, indicating that EEE method has better prediction accuracy and reliability. Discussions on present performance of EEE method and future works are present at last. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Xu, Z.S.; Dreier, N.; Chen, Y.P., Fröhle, P. and Xie, D.M., 2016. On the long-term changes of extreme wave heights at the German Baltic Sea Coast. In: Vila-Concejo, A.; Bruce, E.; Kennedy, D.M., and McCarroll, R.J. (eds.), Proceedings of the 14th International Coastal Symposium (Sydney, Australia). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue, No. 75, pp. 962-966. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. The assessment of extreme wave heights is of great importance for the design of coastal protection strucutres. This paper aims to present long-term changes of extreme wave heights at several selected locations at the German Baltic Sea Coast. Annual maximum significant wave heights were selected from the hourly wave data obtained from a hybrid approach (wind-wave-correlations combined with numerical simulations on the basis of the SWAN model) for a total period of 140 years, spanning from 1961 to 2100. The future projections of wind data were dreived from the regional COSMO-Climate Local Model for two emission scenarios A1B and B1. The extreme wave heights at each location were estimated from the respective best-fitting distribution, log-normal or Weibull distribution. The results indicate that, the long-term changes of extreme wave heights are related to the emission scenarios used in the regional climate model, the distribution chosen for the estimating (up to +9.6%) and also the sample size for the extreme value analysis (up to +8.7%). These factors should be carefully considered in the future coastal structure design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]