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Objective: We developed a robust characterization of immune recovery trajectories in people living with HIV on antiretroviral treatment (ART) and relate our findings to epidemiological risk factors and bacterial pneumonia., Methods: Using data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and the Zurich Primary HIV Infection Cohort Study (n = 5907), we analyzed the long-term trajectories of CD4 cell and CD8 cell counts and their ratio in people living with HIV on ART for at least 8 years by fitting nonlinear mixed-effects models. The determinants of long-term immune recovery were investigated using generalized additive models. In addition, prediction accuracy of the modeled trajectories and their impact on the fit of a model for bacterial pneumonia was assessed., Results: Overall, our population showed good immune recovery (median plateau [interquartile range]-CD4: 718 [555-900] cells/μL, CD8: 709 [547-893] cells/μL, CD4/CD8: 1.01 [0.76-1.37]). The following factors were predictive of recovery: age, sex, nadir/zenith value, pre-ART HIV-1 viral load, hepatitis C, ethnicity, acquisition risk, and timing of ART initiation. The fitted models proved to be an accurate and efficient way of predicting future CD4 and CD8 cell recovery dynamics: Compared with carrying forward the last observation, mean squared errors of the fitted values were lower by 1.3%-18.3% across outcomes. When modeling future episodes of bacterial pneumonia, using predictors derived from the recovery dynamics improved most model fits., Conclusion: We described and validated a method to characterize individual immune recovery trajectories of people living with HIV on suppressive ART. These trajectories accurately predict long-term immune recovery and the occurrence of bacterial pneumonia., (Copyright © 2024 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: Phylogenetic analyses of 2 or more countries allow to detect differences in transmission dynamics of local HIV-1 epidemics beyond differences in demographic characteristics., Methods: A maximum-likelihood phylogenetic tree was built using pol -sequences of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) and the Austrian HIV Cohort Study (AHIVCOS), with international background sequences. Three types of phylogenetic cherries (clusters of size 2) were analyzed further: (1) domestic cherries; (2) international cherries; and (3) SHCS/AHIVCOS-cherries. Transmission group and ethnicities observed within the cherries were compared with the respective distribution expected from a random distribution of patients on the phylogeny., Results: The demographic characteristics of the AHIVCOS (included patients: 3'141) and the SHCS (included patients: 12'902) are very similar. In the AHIVCOS, 36.5% of the patients were in domestic cherries, 8.3% in international cherries, and 7.0% in SHCS/AHIVCOS cherries. Similarly, in the SHCS, 43.0% of the patients were in domestic cherries, 8.2% in international cherries, and 1.7% in SHCS/AHIVCOS cherries. Although international cherries in the SHCS were dominated by heterosexuals with men who have sex with men being underrepresented, the opposite was the case for the AHIVCOS. In both cohorts, cherries with one patient belonging to the transmission group intravenous drug user and the other one non-intravenous drug user were underrepresented., Conclusions: In both cohorts, international HIV transmission plays a major role in the local epidemics, mostly driven by men who have sex with men in the AHIVOS, and by heterosexuals in the SHCS, highlighting the importance of international collaborations to understand global HIV transmission links on the way to eliminate HIV., Competing Interests: The authors have no conflicts of interest to disclose., (Copyright © 2022 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: The primary hurdle for the eradication of HIV-1 is the establishment of a latent viral reservoir early after primary infection. Here, we investigated the potential influence of human genetic variation on the HIV-1 reservoir size and its decay rate during suppressive antiretroviral treatment., Setting: Genome-wide association study and exome sequencing study to look for host genetic determinants of HIV-1 reservoir measurements in patients enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, a nation-wide prospective observational study., Methods: We measured total HIV-1 DNA in peripheral blood mononuclear cells from study participants, as a proxy for the reservoir size at 3 time points over a median of 5.4 years, and searched for associations between human genetic variation and 2 phenotypic readouts: the reservoir size at the first time point and its decay rate over the study period. We assessed the contribution of common genetic variants using genome-wide genotyping data from 797 patients with European ancestry enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and searched for a potential impact of rare variants and exonic copy number variants using exome sequencing data generated in a subset of 194 study participants., Results: Genome-wide and exome-wide analyses did not reveal any significant association with the size of the HIV-1 reservoir or its decay rate on suppressive antiretroviral treatment., Conclusions: Our results point to a limited influence of human genetics on the size of the HIV-1 reservoir and its long-term dynamics in successfully treated individuals.