1. Predicting the extinction of HIV-2 in rural Guinea-Bissau
- Author
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Peter Aaby, Zacarias da Silva, Carla van Tienen, Hilton Whittle, Maarten F. Schim van der Loeff, Sarah Rowland-Jones, Thushan I de Silva, Helen R. Fryer, Medical Microbiology & Infectious Diseases, and Infectious diseases
- Subjects
Gerontology ,Male ,Rural Population ,HIV Infections ,COMPETITIVE-EXCLUSION ,law.invention ,ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY ,law ,Immunology and Allergy ,Medicine ,Guinea-Bissau ,WEST-AFRICA ,POPULATION ,Aged, 80 and over ,education.field_of_study ,biology ,extinction ,Incidence (epidemiology) ,Incidence ,virus diseases ,11 Medical And Health Sciences ,Middle Aged ,Transmission (mechanics) ,Infectious Diseases ,IMMUNODEFICIENCY-VIRUS TYPE-2 ,PLASMA VIRAL LOAD ,epidemiology ,Female ,Life Sciences & Biomedicine ,Adult ,Adolescent ,TRANSMISSION ,Epidemiology and Social ,Population ,Immunology ,prevalence ,Developing country ,DUAL INFECTIONS ,17 Psychology And Cognitive Sciences ,Young Adult ,SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being ,Virology ,Humans ,Disease Eradication ,education ,Aged ,Extinction ,Science & Technology ,business.industry ,Caio ,MORTALITY ,06 Biological Sciences ,Models, Theoretical ,biology.organism_classification ,age ,Guinea bissau ,HIV-2 ,Rural area ,business ,mathematical model ,Demography - Abstract
Objective:\ud This article predicts the future epidemiology of HIV-2 in Caió, a rural region of Guinea Bissau; and investigates whether HIV-2, which has halved in prevalence between 1990 and 2007 and is now almost absent in young adults in Caió, can persist as an infection of the elderly.\ud Design:\ud A mathematical model of the spread of HIV-2 was tailored to the epidemic in Caió, a village in Guinea-Bissau.\ud Methods:\ud An age-stratified difference equation model of HIV-2 transmission was fitted to age-stratified HIV-2 incidence and prevalence data from surveys conducted in Caió in 1990, 1997 and 2007. A stochastic version of the same model was used to make projections.\ud Results:\ud HIV-2 infection is predicted to continue to rapidly decline in Caió such that new infections will cease and prevalence will reach low levels (e.g. below 0.1%) within a few decades. HIV-2 is not predicted to persist in the elderly.\ud Conclusion:\ud HIV-2 is predicted go extinct in Caió during the second half of this century.
- Published
- 2015