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Background: Although redox stress likely plays an important role in reproductive health, the utility of peripheral biomarkers of oxidative stress, such as isoprostanes, during the periconception period remains underexplored. We evaluated the relationship between isoprostanes during preconception and gestational week 4 and women's reproductive health outcomes. Methods: The Effects of Aspirin in Gestation and Reproduction trial (2007–2011) enrolled 1228 women attempting pregnancy and followed them for up to 6 menstrual cycles and throughout pregnancy if they became pregnant. We measured creatinine-adjusted, log-transformed isoprostanes 8-iso-prostaglandin F2α (8-iso-PGF2α), its metabolite 2,3-dinor-iPF2α-III, and stereoisomers 5-iso-PGF2α-VI and 8,12-iso-iPF2α-VI in urine during preconception and 4 weeks gestation. We evaluated pregnancy among participants in each menstrual cycle using human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) and defined pregnancy loss as observed loss following positive hCG. We calculated fecundability odds ratios (FOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using discrete-time Cox proportional hazards models and relative risk of pregnancy loss using adjusted log-binomial models. Results: Higher preconception isoprostane levels were associated with lower fecundability [e.g., FOR = 0.89; 95% CI = 0.81, 0.97 per interquartile range (IQR) increase in 8-iso-PGF2α]. Among 797 pregnancies, isoprostane levels increased from preconception to 4 weeks gestation (e.g., mean difference = 0.12; 95% CI = 0.10, 0.14 ng/mL for 8-iso-PGF2α) and higher isoprostanes at 4 weeks gestation were associated with lower risk of pregnancy loss (e.g., RR = 0.79; 95% CI = 0.62, 1.00 per IQR increase in 8-iso-PGF2α). Conclusions: Preconception urinary isoprostanes may identify redox stress pathways associated with lower fecundability. However, the increase in isoprostanes into gestational week 4 and the associated lower risk of pregnancy loss may suggest confounding by latent factors in early pregnancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Randomized trials in pregnancy are extremely challenging, and observational studies are often the only option to evaluate medication safety during pregnancy. However, such studies are often susceptible to immortal time bias if treatment initiation occurs after time zero of follow-up. We describe how emulating a sequence of target trials avoids immortal time bias and apply the approach to estimate the safety of antibiotic initiation between 24 and 37 weeks gestation on preterm delivery. Methods: The Tsepamo Study captured birth outcomes at hospitals throughout Botswana from 2014 to 2021. We emulated 13 sequential target trials of antibiotic initiation versus no initiation among individuals presenting to care <24 weeks, one for each week from 24 to 37 weeks. For each trial, eligible individuals had not previously initiated antibiotics. We also conducted an analysis susceptible to immortal time bias by defining time zero as 24 weeks and exposure as antibiotic initiation between 24 and 37 weeks. We calculated adjusted risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for preterm delivery. Results: Of 111,403 eligible individuals, 17,009 (15.3%) initiated antibiotics between 24 and 37 weeks. In the sequence of target trials, RRs (95% CIs) ranged from 1.04 (0.90, 1.19) to 1.24 (1.11, 1.39) (pooled RR: 1.11 [1.06, 1.15]). In the analysis susceptible to immortal time bias, the RR was 0.90 (0.86, 0.94). Conclusions: Defining exposure as antibiotic initiation at any time during follow-up after time zero resulted in substantial immortal time bias, making antibiotics appear protective against preterm delivery. Conducting a sequence of target trials can avoid immortal time bias in pregnancy studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Inflammation may contribute to subfertility but this has not been well-explored in large prospective cohort studies.Methods: We conducted a prospective 12-month cohort study of time to pregnancy in North Carolina, the Time to Conceive study (2010-2016). Participants were 30-44 years old, without a history of infertility (N = 727). We analyzed blood samples with a high sensitivity assay for C-reactive protein (CRP). Women reported their weight, height, and other covariates. We natural log-transformed CRP and examined it (1) linearly, after exploration using restricted cubic splines and (2) in categories based on American Heart Association criteria. We estimated fecundability ratios (FRs) with log-binomial discrete-time-to-pregnancy models. Separate models included an interaction term with body mass index (BMI).Results: The adjusted estimated FR per natural log-unit increase in CRP level was 0.97 (confidence interval [CI] = 0.91, 1.0). The FR (CI) for high CRP (>10 mg/L) compared with low CRP (<1 mg/L) was 0.78 (0.52, 1.2). Compared with normal-weight women with low CRP, women with obesity and high CRP had lower estimated fecundability, but the confidence interval was wide (FR = 0.63; CI = 0.35, 1.1). There was no pattern in the estimated fecundability across levels of CRP within categories of BMI.Conclusions: There was no evidence of an association between CRP and fecundability either alone or within levels of BMI. Further studies of CRP and fecundability should include higher levels of CRP and additional markers of inflammation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Opioids are commonly prescribed to women of reproductive age, including after delivery and miscarriage. However, to our knowledge, opioid use has not been frequently studied in relation to the common reproductive complications of impaired fecundability and pregnancy. We examined the association of opioid use during the critical window of pregnancy establishment with fecundability and pregnancy loss.Methods: We measured opioid use by urine screening and self-report at multiple time points during preconception and early pregnancy in a prospective cohort of women attempting conception (n=1228). The main outcomes included time to hCG-detected pregnancy and incidence of live birth and pregnancy loss. We estimated fecundability odds ratios (FOR) and risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics, reproductive characteristics, and use of antidepressants, tobacco, alcohol, and marijuana.Results: Prevalence of preconception opioid use was 18% (n=226 of 1228), and in early pregnancy was 5% (n=33 of 685). Opioid use while attempting pregnancy was associated with reduced fecundability (FOR: 0.71; 95% CI: 0.50, 1.0). Risk of pregnancy loss increased as opioid exposure was detected later in gestation, from the beginning of the cycle of conception (RR: 1.5; 95% CI 0.85, 2.6), to week 4 of pregnancy (RR: 2.1; 95% CI: 1.1, 4.1), and to week 4 and 8 of pregnancy (RR: 2.5; 95% CI: 1.3, 5.0).Conclusions: Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that opioid exposure while trying to conceive may be harmful, even among healthy, non-opioid-dependent women. Possible risks to fecundability and pregnancy viability are relevant to patients and providers when evaluating pain management approaches.ClinicalTrials.gov registration number: #NCT00467363. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Preeclampsia and gestational hypertension are common complications of pregnancy associated with significant maternal and infant morbidity. Despite extensive research evaluating risk factors during pregnancy, most women who develop a hypertensive disorder of pregnancy are not considered high-risk and strategies for prevention remain elusive. We evaluated preconception blood pressure and its change into early pregnancy as novel risk markers for development of a hypertensive disorder of pregnancy. The EAGeR (Effects of Aspirin in Gestation and Reproduction) trial (2007-2011) randomized 1228 healthy women with a history of pregnancy loss to preconception-initiated low-dose aspirin versus placebo and followed participants for up to 6 menstrual cycles attempting pregnancy and throughout pregnancy if they became pregnant. Blood pressure was measured during preconception and throughout early gestation. The primary outcomes, preterm preeclampsia, term preeclampsia, and gestational hypertension, were abstracted from medical records. Among 586 women with a pregnancy >20 weeks' gestation, preconception blood pressure levels were higher for preterm preeclampsia (87.3±6.7 mm Hg mean arterial pressure), term preeclampsia (88.3±9.8 mm Hg), and gestational hypertension (87.9±9.1 mm Hg) as compared with no hypertensive disorder of pregnancy (83.9±8.6 mm Hg). Change in blood pressure from preconception into very early pregnancy was associated with development of preeclampsia (relative risk, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.02-1.25] per 2 mm Hg increase in mean arterial pressure at 4 weeks' gestation), particularly preterm preeclampsia (relative risk, 1.21 [95% CI, 1.01-1.45]). Randomization to aspirin did not alter blood pressure trajectory or risk of hypertension in pregnancy. Preconception blood pressure and longitudinal changes during early pregnancy are underexplored but crucial windows in the detection and prevention of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. Registration- URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00467363. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Studies linking large pregnancy cohorts with mortality data can address critical questions about long-term implications of gravid health, yet relevant US data are scant. We examined the feasibility of linking the Collaborative Perinatal Project, a large multiracial U.S. cohort study of pregnant women (n = 48,197; 1959-1966), to death records.Methods: We abstracted essential National Death Index (NDI) (1979-2016) (n = 46,428). We performed a linkage to the Social Security Administration Death Master File through 2016 (n = 46,450). Genealogists manually searched vital status in 2016 for a random sample of women (n = 1,249). We conducted agreement analyses for women with abstracted data among the three sources. As proof of concept, we calculated adjusted associations between mortality and smoking and other sociodemographic factors using Cox proportional hazards regression.Results: We successfully abstracted identifying information for most of the cohort (97%). National Death Index identified the greatest proportion of participants deceased (35%), followed by genealogists (31%) and Death Master File (23%). Estimates of agreement (κ [95% confidence interval]) between National Death Index and Death Master File were lower (0.52 [0.51, 0.53]) than for National Death Index and genealogist (0.66 [0.61, 0.70]). As expected, compared with nonsmokers, smoking ≥1 pack per day was associated with elevated mortality for all vital sources and was strongest for National Death Index.Conclusions: Linking this historic cohort with mortality records was feasible and agreed reasonably on vital status when compared with other data sources. Such linkage enables future examination of pregnancy conditions in relation to mortality in a diverse U.S. cohort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The length of research fellowships, the number of doctorates pursuing them, and the academic job market have changed dramatically in recent years. However, there is limited investigation on attributes of fellowships most relevant to future scientific achievement. We analyzed the association of a modifiable aspect of research training, fellowship length, with future achievement and differences across research discipline in the Division of Intramural Population Health Research (DIPHR), Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health.Methods: Demographics of 88 DIPHR trainees from 1998 to 2016 were collected from publicly available annual reports. Research performance metrics, including total publication count and H index through 2016, were collected via Scopus. We used linear regression models for associations between fellowship length, including both total exposure to research training and duration of postdoctoral training alone, and research performance adjusted for start year, publications at entry, branch (e.g., Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Epidemiology, and Health Behavior), and mentor seniority.Results: Each additional year of research training in DIPHR was associated with a 15% increase in H index (95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.0, 28.4) and 21% more lifetime publications (95% CI = 3.0, 41.9). Results were similar, although attenuated, when evaluating postdoctoral training alone. Differences by discipline were observed, with the strongest positive associations in the Biostatistics and Bioinformatics and Epidemiology Branches.Conclusions: Longer training at DIPHR was associated with improved measures of research performance, though this relationship varied by discipline. Additional research is needed to tailor training programs to optimize success of trainees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Women who experience pregnancy loss are especially prone to high stress, though the effects of stress on reproductive outcomes in this vulnerable population are unknown. We assessed relationships between perceived stress and hormones, anovulation, and fecundability among women with prior loss.Methods: One thousand two hundred fourteen women with 1-2 prior losses were followed for ≤6 cycles while attempting pregnancy and completed end-of-cycle stress assessments. For cycles 1 and 2, women also collected daily urine and completed daily perceived stress assessments. We assessed anovulation via. an algorithm based on human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG), pregnanediol-3-glucuronide (PdG), luteinizing hormone (LH), and fertility monitor readings. Pregnancy was determined via. hCG. Adjusted weighted linear mixed models estimated the effect of prospective phase-varying (menses, follicular, periovulatory, and luteal) perceived stress quartiles on estrone-1-glucuronide (E1G), PdG, and LH concentrations. Marginal structural models accounted for time-varying confounding by hormones and lifestyle factors affected by prior stress. Poisson and Cox regression estimated risk ratios and fecundability odds ratios of cycle-varying stress quartiles on anovulation and fecundability. Models were adjusted for age, race, body mass index (BMI), parity, and time-varying caffeine, alcohol, smoking, intercourse, and pelvic pain.Results: Women in the highest versus lowest stress quartile had lower E1G and PdG concentrations, a marginally higher risk of anovulation [1.28; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.00, 1.63], and lower fecundability (0.71; 95% CI = 0.55, 0.90).Conclusion: Preconception perceived stress appears to adversely affect sex steroid synthesis and time to pregnancy. Mechanisms likely include the effects of stress on ovulatory function, but additional mechanisms, potentially during implantation, may also exist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biomarker assay measurement often consists of a two-stage process where laboratory equipment yields a relative measure which is subsequently transformed to the unit of interest using a calibration curve. The calibration curve establishes the relation between the measured relative units and sample biomarker concentrations using stepped samples of known biomarker concentrations. Samples from epidemiologic studies are often measured in multiple batches or plates, each with independent calibration experiments. Collapsing calibration information across batches before statistical analysis has been shown to reduce measurement error and improves estimation. Additionally, collapsing in practice can also create an additional layer of quality control (QC) and optimization in a part of the laboratory measurement process that is often highly automated. Principled recalibration is demonstrated via. a three-step process of identifying batches where recalibration might be beneficial, forming a collapsed calibration curve and recalibrating identified batches, and using QC data to assess the appropriateness of recalibration. Here, we use inhibin B measured in biospecimens from the BioCycle study using 50 enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) batches (3875 samples) to motivate and display the benefits of collapsing calibration experiments, such as detecting and overcoming faulty calibration experiments, and thus improving assay coefficients of variation from reducing unwanted measurement error variability. Differences in the analysis of inhibin B by testosterone quartile are also demonstrated before and after recalibration. These simple and practical procedures are minor adjustments implemented by study personnel without altering laboratory protocols which could have positive estimation and cost-saving implications especially for population-based studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although fatty acids are involved in critical reproductive processes, the relationship between specific fatty acids and fertility is uncertain. We investigated the relationship between preconception plasma fatty acids and pregnancy outcomes.Methods: We included 1,228 women attempting pregnancy with one to two previous pregnancy losses from the EAGeR trial (2007-2011). Plasma fatty acids were measured at baseline. We used log-binomial regression to assess associations between fatty acids and pregnancy, pregnancy loss, and live birth, adjusting for age, race, smoking, BMI, physical activity, income, parity, treatment arm, and cholesterol.Results: Although total saturated fatty acids (SFAs) were not associated with pregnancy outcomes, 14:0 (myristic acid; relative risk [RR] = 1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.02, 1.19, per 0.1% increase) and 20:0 (arachidic acid; RR = 1.05, 95% CI = 1.01, 1.08, per 0.1% increase) were positively associated with live birth. Findings suggested a positive association between total monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFAs) and pregnancy and live birth and an inverse association with loss. Total polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) were associated with lower probability of pregnancy (RR = 0.97, 95% CI = 0.95, 1.00) and live birth (RR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.94, 0.99), and increased risk of loss (RR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.00, 1.20), per 1% increase. Trans fatty acids and n-3 fatty acids were not associated with pregnancy outcomes.Conclusions: Preconception total plasma MUFAs were positively associated with pregnancy and live birth. PUFAs were inversely associated with pregnancy outcomes. Specific SFAs were associated with a higher probability of live birth. Our results suggest that fatty acids may influence pregnancy outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2017, the Division of Intramural Population Health Research (DIPHR), within the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD), reached a significant milestone: 50 years in existence. DIPHR celebrated this anniversary with a scientific program that reviewed past accomplishments and reflected on future directions in support of promoting the health of populations across the life course. Extending from the scientific program, the impetus of this article is to contribute to archiving and consolidating the legacy of intramural population health research at NICHD over the past 50 years. We present a brief history of the origin and evolution of intramural population health research at NICHD. Next, we conduct an empirical assessment of the scientific impact and evolving scope of this research over the past five decades and present specific key discoveries emerging from topics spanning the life course: (1) reproductive health, (2) the health of pregnant women and fetuses, (3) the health of children, and (4) associated methodologies. We also explore the Division's service to the profession in the form of mentorship of the next generation of scientists in population health research. Finally, we conclude with thoughts about future directions of population health research and reaffirm the DIPHR's commitment to promoting the health and well-being of the many populations we serve, both locally and globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Metabolic syndrome is associated with increases in both inflammation and aspirin resistance, but effectiveness of aspirin in improving reproductive health among women with metabolic syndrome is unknown. We evaluated the effectiveness of low-dose aspirin in improving reproductive outcomes across metabolic syndrome score.Methods: The EAGeR trial randomly assigned 1228 women with a history of pregnancy loss to receive 81 mg aspirin or placebo for up to six menstrual cycles of attempting pregnancy and, if they became pregnant, throughout pregnancy. We assessed components of metabolic syndrome at enrollment, including: waist circumference ≥88 cm, triglycerides ≥150 mg/dl, high-density lipoprotein ≤50 mg/dl, blood pressure ≥130 mmHg systolic or ≥85 mmHg diastolic, and glucose ≥100 mg/dl. We summed components to calculate metabolic syndrome score.Results: A total of 229 participants (20%) met full criteria for metabolic syndrome, 207 (18%) had two components, 366 (31%) one component, and 372 (32%) no components. Among those without any component of metabolic syndrome, aspirin was associated with 10.7 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.2, 20.2] more pregnancies and 13.7 (95% CI = 3.3, 24.0) more live births per 100 couples. Effects were attenuated as metabolic syndrome score increased and we observed no clear effect of aspirin on pregnancy or live birth among women with metabolic syndrome.Conclusions: Low-dose aspirin is most effective in increasing pregnancy and live birth among women with no or few components of metabolic syndrome. Reduced effectiveness among women with metabolic syndrome may be due to differences in effective dose or aspirin resistance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Elevated blood pressure in young adulthood is an early risk marker for cardiovascular disease. Despite a strong biological rationale, little research has evaluated whether incremental increases in preconception blood pressure have early consequences for reproductive health. We evaluated preconception blood pressure and fecundability, pregnancy loss, and live birth in the EAGeR trial (Effects of Aspirin on Gestational and Reproduction; 2007-2011), a randomized clinical trial of aspirin and reproductive outcomes among 1228 women attempting pregnancy with a history of pregnancy loss. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure were measured during preconception in the first observed menstrual cycle and in early pregnancy and used to derive mean arterial pressure. Fecundability was assessed as number of menstrual cycles until pregnancy, determined through human chorionic gonadotropin testing. Pregnancy loss included both human chorionic gonadotropin-detected and clinical losses. Analyses adjusted for treatment assignment, age, body mass index, race, marital status, smoking, parity, and time since last loss. Mean preconception systolic and diastolic blood pressure were 111.6 mm Hg (SD, 12.1) and 72.5 (SD, 9.4) mm Hg. Risk of pregnancy loss increased 18% per 10 mm Hg increase in diastolic blood pressure (95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.36) and 17% per 10 mm Hg increase in mean arterial pressure (95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.35) in adjusted analyses. Findings were similar for early pregnancy blood pressure. Preconception blood pressure was not related to fecundability or live birth in adjusted analyses. Findings suggest that preconception blood pressure among healthy women is associated with pregnancy loss, and lifestyle interventions targeting blood pressure among young women may favorably impact reproductive health.Clinical Trial Registration: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00467363. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Female biomedical scientists tend to publish fewer articles as last author than their male colleagues and accrue fewer citations per publication. We seek to understand whether epidemiology follows this pattern.Methods: We gathered aggregate information on the current gender distribution of epidemiology departments (n = 29 of 71 surveyed), societies (n = 4 of 8), and journal editorial boards (n = 6 of 6) using two online surveys and publicly available online information. Bibliometric data from 4,149 articles published between 2008 and 2012 in six high-impact epidemiology journals were drawn from Web of Science and PubMed.Results: We observed a higher prevalence of female than male doctoral students and epidemiology faculty, particularly at lower faculty ranks. A total of 54% of society members were female. Among editorial boards, all current and emeritus editors-in-chief were male and board membership was largely male (64%). Females were more likely to be first authors, but less likely to be last authors. There were no differences in accrued citations at the 50th percentile by first or last author gender. However, articles with male first and last authors tend to accrue more citations (5.7 citations, 95% CI: 2.1, 9.4), mostly driven by the most highly cited articles. This disparity is not fully explained by potential confounders, including seniority.Conclusions: We found a greater number of female epidemiologists in early-career positions and further evidence of potential gender disparity in publication metrics in epidemiology. If epidemiology continues to be practiced by a majority of women, it remains to be seen if these patterns will change over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Correlated data are ubiquitous in epidemiologic research, particularly in nutritional and environmental epidemiology where mixtures of factors are often studied. Our objectives are to demonstrate how highly correlated data arise in epidemiologic research and provide guidance, using a directed acyclic graph approach, on how to proceed analytically when faced with highly correlated data.Methods: We identified three fundamental structural scenarios in which high correlation between a given variable and the exposure can arise: intermediates, confounders, and colliders. For each of these scenarios, we evaluated the consequences of increasing correlation between the given variable and the exposure on the bias and variance for the total effect of the exposure on the outcome using unadjusted and adjusted models. We derived closed-form solutions for continuous outcomes using linear regression and empirically present our findings for binary outcomes using logistic regression.Results: For models properly specified, total effect estimates remained unbiased even when there was almost perfect correlation between the exposure and a given intermediate, confounder, or collider. In general, as the correlation increased, the variance of the parameter estimate for the exposure in the adjusted models increased, while in the unadjusted models, the variance increased to a lesser extent or decreased.Conclusion: Our findings highlight the importance of considering the causal framework under study when specifying regression models. Strategies that do not take into consideration the causal structure may lead to biased effect estimation for the original question of interest, even under high correlation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the standard recommendation is to exclude person-time not at risk (ie, time during which the outcome could not have occurred) from the denominators of disease rates, there are scenarios where person-time not at risk should be included. In particular, we draw an analogy between including person-time not at risk and intention-to-treat (ITT) analyses of randomized trials, and excluding person-time not at risk and compliance-corrected analysis of these same trials. Excluding person-time not at risk is appropriate when addressing questions of the biologic or mechanistic effects of an exposure, whereas the ITT-type approach typically addresses questions regarding the effect of an exposure under observed compliance patterns. The choice of approach directly affects the causal question being addressed and subsequent inference, with potential implications for public health. When interested in estimating treatment effects that allow and account for potential noncompliance, or where the exposure may be associated with the time at risk, we argue that person-time not at risk should be included. In the case of time to pregnancy, although the ITT-type analysis may underestimate the biological fecundity of the population, it may also yield an answer to a question that is of more interest to couples trying to become pregnant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is common practice in perinatal epidemiology to calculate gestational-age-specific or birth-weight-specific associations between an exposure and a perinatal outcome. Gestational age or birth weight, for example, might lie on a pathway from the exposure to the outcome. This practice of conditioning on a potential intermediate has come under critique for various reasons. First, if one is interested in assessing the overall effect of an exposure on an outcome, it is not necessary to stratify, and indeed, it is important not to stratify, on an intermediate. Second, if one does condition on an intermediate, to try to obtain what might conceived of as a "direct effect" of the exposure on the outcome, then various biases and paradoxical results can arise. It is now well documented theoretically and empirically that, when there is an unmeasured common cause of the intermediate and the outcome, associations adjusted for the intermediate are subject to bias. In this paper, we propose 3 approaches to facilitate valid inference when effects conditional on an intermediate are in view. These 3 approaches correspond to (i) conditioning on the predicted risk of the intermediate, (ii) conditioning on the intermediate itself in conjunction with sensitivity analysis, and (iii) conditioning on the subgroup of individuals for whom the intermediate would occur irrespective of the exposure received. The second and third approaches both require sensitivity analysis, and they result in a range of estimates. Each of the 3 approaches can be used to resolve the "birth-weight paradox" that exposures such as maternal smoking seem to have a protective effect among low-birth-weight infants. The various methodologic approaches described in this paper are applicable to a number of similar settings in perinatal epidemiology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A response from the author of the article "Trying to conceive after an early pregnancy loss: an assessment on how long couples should wait" that was published in the previous issue, is presented.

Background: Stress has been shown to suppress ovulation in experimental models, but its effect on human reproduction at the population level is unclear., Methods: Healthy women (n = 259), aged 18-44 years from Western New York, were followed for 2 menstrual cycles (2005-2007). Women completed daily perceived stress assessments, a 4-item Perceived Stress Scale (PSS-4) up to 4 times each cycle, and a 14-item PSS at baseline. Mixed model analyses were used to assess effects of stress on log reproductive hormone concentrations and sporadic anovulation., Results: High versus low daily stress was associated with lower estradiol (-9.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) = -15.6% to -3.0%]), free estradiol (-10.4% [-16.5% to -3.9%]), and luteinizing hormone (-14.8% [-21.3% to -7.7%]) and higher follicle-stimulating hormone (6.2% [95% CI = 2.0% to 10.5%]) after adjusting for age, race, percent body fat, depression score, and time-varying hormones and vigorous exercise. High versus low daily stress was also associated with lower luteal progesterone (-10.4% [95% CI = -19.7% to -0.10%]) and higher odds of anovulation (adjusted odds ratio = 2.2 [95% CI = 1.0 to 4.7]). For each unit increase in daily stress level, women had a 70% higher odds of an anovulatory episode (odds ratio = 1.7 [1.1 to 2.4]). Similar but attenuated results were found for the association between the PSS-4 and reproductive hormones, while null findings were found for the baseline PSS., Conclusion: Daily perceived stress does appear to interfere with menstrual cycle function among women with no known reproductive disorders, warranting further research to explore potential population-level impacts and causal biologic mechanisms.