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Objectives: To evaluate rates of long-term survival in a prospective, longitudinal, closed HIV cohort in Africa between 1986 and 2006., Methods: A total of 548 HIV-infected Rwandan women were recruited from prenatal clinics in Kigali and followed at 3-6 month intervals to February 2006. Overall, 401 women (73%) were HIV positive at initial cross-sectional testing in 1986 (seroprevalent cohort) and 147 women (27%) were initially HIV negative but seroconverted during follow-up from 1986 to 1993 (seroincident cohort). Kaplan-Meier survival methods were used to calculate survival times censored in mid-2003., Results: In February 2006, 109 women (20%) remained alive in the cohort. Time to 50% non-genocide mortality was 11.9 years among seroincident women and 8.9 years among seroprevalent women. Smoothed mortality rates increased with duration of follow-up to a peak of 0.12 deaths per person-year at 9.5 years of follow-up but subsequently declined. After 15 years of follow-up (pre-HAART introduction), the survival probability was 36% for seroincident women and 26% for seroprevalent women. Most survivors had virological and immunological evidence of disease progression. The median CD4 cell count of survivors declined from 447 cells/mul in 1998 to 268 cells/mul in 2003. Among survivors, 57 women (52%) met treatment criteria and initiated antiretroviral treatment by 2006., Conclusion: Although median survival times in this cohort were similar to those observed in high-income countries, the rates of long-term survival after 15 years of follow-up were higher than expected. A levelling off of mortality rates during the late stages of follow-up may explain this high rate of long-term survival.

Despite the massive expansion of antiretroviral drugs in Africa, little is known about the resulting changes in sexual behavior or obstacles to antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence. Our evaluation of Rwandan adults on ART found no increase in risky sexual behaviors, but an obstacle to ART initiation and adherence for 76% of patients was a fear of developing too much appetite without enough to eat. Access to adequate nutrition may be a major determinant for long-term adherence to ART.