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Background: Despite the excellent disease-specific survival associated with low-risk differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC), its diagnosis and management have been linked to patient concerns about cancer recurrence, treatment-related health risks, and mortality. Lack of information regarding long-term health outcomes can perpetuate these concerns. Therefore, we assessed all-cause and cause-specific mortality in a large cohort of individuals diagnosed with low-risk DTC. Methods: From the U.S. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-12 cancer registry database (1992-2019), we identified 51,854 individuals (81.8% female) diagnosed with first primary DTC at low risk of recurrence (≤4 cm, localized). We estimated cause-specific cumulative mortality by time since diagnosis, accounting for competing risks. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and CIs were used to compare observed mortality rates in DTC patients with expected rates in the matched U.S. general population, overall and by time since DTC diagnosis. We used Cox proportional hazards models to examine associations between radioactive iodine (RAI) treatment and cause-specific mortality. Results: During follow-up (median = 8.8, range 0-28 years), 3467 (6.7%) deaths were recorded. Thyroid cancer accounted for only 4.3% of deaths ( n  = 148). The most common causes of death were malignancies (other than thyroid cancer) ( n  = 1031, 29.7%) and cardiovascular disease (CVD; n  = 912, 26.3%). The 20-year cumulative mortality rate from thyroid cancer, malignancies (other than thyroid or nonmelanoma skin cancer), and CVD was 0.6%, 4.6%, and 3.9%, respectively. Lower than expected mortality was observed for all causes excluding thyroid cancer (SMR = 0.69 [CI 0.67-0.71]) and most specific causes, including all malignancies combined (other than thyroid cancer; SMR = 0.80 [CI 0.75-0.85]) and CVD (SMR = 0.64 [CI 0.60-0.69]). However, mortality rates were elevated for specific cancers, including pancreas (SMR = 1.58 [CI 1.18-2.06]), kidney and renal pelvis (SMR = 1.85 [CI 1.10-2.93]), and brain and other nervous system (SMR = 1.62 [CI 0.99-2.51]), and myeloma (SMR = 2.35 [CI 1.46-3.60]) and leukemia (SMR = 1.62 [CI 1.07-2.36]); these associations were stronger ≥10 years after diagnosis. RAI was not associated with risk of cause-specific death, but numbers of events were small and the range of administered activities was likely narrow. Conclusions: Overall, our findings provide reassurance regarding low overall and cause-specific mortality rates in individuals with low-risk DTC. Additional research is necessary to confirm and understand the increased mortality from certain subsequent cancers.

Background: In response to evidence of overdiagnosis and overtreatment of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), the 2009 and 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) adult guidelines recommended less extensive surgery (lobectomy vs. total thyroidectomy) and more restricted use of postsurgical radioactive iodine (RAI) in management of PTC at low risk of recurrence. In 2015, active surveillance was suggested as a viable option for some <1-cm PTCs, or microcarcinomas. The 2015 ATA pediatric guidelines similarly shifted toward more restricted use of RAI for low-risk PTCs. The impact of these recommendations on low-risk adult and pediatric PTC management remains unclear, particularly after 2015. Methods: Using data from 18 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) U.S. registries (2000-2018), we described time trends in reported first-course treatment (total thyroidectomy alone, total thyroidectomy+RAI, lobectomy, no surgery, and other/unknown) for 105,483 patients diagnosed with first primary localized PTC (without nodal/distant metastases), overall and by demographic and tumor characteristics. Results: The declining use of RAI represented the most pronounced change in management of PTCs <4 cm (44-18% during the period 2006-2018), including microcarcinomas (26-6% during the period 2007-2018). In parallel, an increasing proportion of PTCs were managed with total thyroidectomy alone (35-54% during the period 2000-2018), while more subtle changes were observed for lobectomy (declining from 23% to 17% during the period 2000-2006, stabilizing, and then rising from 17% to 24% during the period 2015-2018). Use of nonsurgical management did not meaningfully change over time, impacting <1% of microcarcinomas annually during the period 2000-2018. Similar treatment trends were observed by sex, age, race/ethnicity, metropolitan vs. nonmetropolitan residence, and insurance status. For pediatric patients (<20 years), use of RAI peaked in 2009 (59%), then decreased markedly to 11% (2018), while use of total thyroidectomy alone and, to a lesser extent, lobectomy increased. No changing treatment trends were observed for ≥4-cm PTCs. Conclusions: The declining use of RAI in management of low-risk adult and pediatric PTC is consistent with changing recommendations from the ATA practice guidelines. Post-2015 trends in use of lobectomy and nonsurgical management of low-risk PTCs, particularly microcarcinomas, were more subtle than expected; however, these trends may change as evidence regarding their safety continues to emerge.