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Background: The goal of screening mammography is to detect small malignant tumors before they grow large enough to cause symptoms. Effective screening should therefore lead to the detection of a greater number of small tumors, followed by fewer large tumors over time., Methods: We used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program, 1975 through 2012, to calculate the tumor-size distribution and size-specific incidence of breast cancer among women 40 years of age or older. We then calculated the size-specific cancer case fatality rate for two time periods: a baseline period before the implementation of widespread screening mammography (1975 through 1979) and a period encompassing the most recent years for which 10 years of follow-up data were available (2000 through 2002)., Results: After the advent of screening mammography, the proportion of detected breast tumors that were small (invasive tumors measuring <2 cm or in situ carcinomas) increased from 36% to 68%; the proportion of detected tumors that were large (invasive tumors measuring ≥2 cm) decreased from 64% to 32%. However, this trend was less the result of a substantial decrease in the incidence of large tumors (with 30 fewer cases of cancer observed per 100,000 women in the period after the advent of screening than in the period before screening) and more the result of a substantial increase in the detection of small tumors (with 162 more cases of cancer observed per 100,000 women). Assuming that the underlying disease burden was stable, only 30 of the 162 additional small tumors per 100,000 women that were diagnosed were expected to progress to become large, which implied that the remaining 132 cases of cancer per 100,000 women were overdiagnosed (i.e., cases of cancer were detected on screening that never would have led to clinical symptoms). The potential of screening to lower breast cancer mortality is reflected in the declining incidence of larger tumors. However, with respect to only these large tumors, the decline in the size-specific case fatality rate suggests that improved treatment was responsible for at least two thirds of the reduction in breast cancer mortality., Conclusions: Although the rate of detection of large tumors fell after the introduction of screening mammography, the more favorable size distribution was primarily the result of the additional detection of small tumors. Women were more likely to have breast cancer that was overdiagnosed than to have earlier detection of a tumor that was destined to become large. The reduction in breast cancer mortality after the implementation of screening mammography was predominantly the result of improved systemic therapy.

Background: To reduce mortality, screening must detect life-threatening disease at an earlier, more curable stage. Effective cancer-screening programs therefore both increase the incidence of cancer detected at an early stage and decrease the incidence of cancer presenting at a late stage., Methods: We used Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data to examine trends from 1976 through 2008 in the incidence of early-stage breast cancer (ductal carcinoma in situ and localized disease) and late-stage breast cancer (regional and distant disease) among women 40 years of age or older., Results: The introduction of screening mammography in the United States has been associated with a doubling in the number of cases of early-stage breast cancer that are detected each year, from 112 to 234 cases per 100,000 women--an absolute increase of 122 cases per 100,000 women. Concomitantly, the rate at which women present with late-stage cancer has decreased by 8%, from 102 to 94 cases per 100,000 women--an absolute decrease of 8 cases per 100,000 women. With the assumption of a constant underlying disease burden, only 8 of the 122 additional early-stage cancers diagnosed were expected to progress to advanced disease. After excluding the transient excess incidence associated with hormone-replacement therapy and adjusting for trends in the incidence of breast cancer among women younger than 40 years of age, we estimated that breast cancer was overdiagnosed (i.e., tumors were detected on screening that would never have led to clinical symptoms) in 1.3 million U.S. women in the past 30 years. We estimated that in 2008, breast cancer was overdiagnosed in more than 70,000 women; this accounted for 31% of all breast cancers diagnosed., Conclusions: Despite substantial increases in the number of cases of early-stage breast cancer detected, screening mammography has only marginally reduced the rate at which women present with advanced cancer. Although it is not certain which women have been affected, the imbalance suggests that there is substantial overdiagnosis, accounting for nearly a third of all newly diagnosed breast cancers, and that screening is having, at best, only a small effect on the rate of death from breast cancer.

Background: Although numerous studies suggest that there is an inverse relation between hospital volume of surgical procedures and surgical mortality, the relative importance of hospital volume in various surgical procedures is disputed., Methods: Using information from the national Medicare claims data base and the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, we examined the mortality associated with six different types of cardiovascular procedures and eight types of major cancer resections between 1994 and 1999 (total number of procedures, 2.5 million). Regression techniques were used to describe relations between hospital volume (total number of procedures performed per year) and mortality (in-hospital or within 30 days), with adjustment for characteristics of the patients., Results: Mortality decreased as volume increased for all 14 types of procedures, but the relative importance of volume varied markedly according to the type of procedure. Absolute differences in adjusted mortality rates between very-low-volume hospitals and very-high-volume hospitals ranged from over 12 percent (for pancreatic resection, 16.3 percent vs. 3.8 percent) to only 0.2 percent (for carotid endarterectomy, 1.7 percent vs. 1.5 percent). The absolute differences in adjusted mortality rates between very-low-volume hospitals and very-high-volume hospitals were greater than 5 percent for esophagectomy and pneumonectomy, 2 to 5 percent for gastrectomy, cystectomy, repair of a nonruptured abdominal aneurysm, and replacement of an aortic or mitral valve, and less than 2 percent for coronary-artery bypass grafting, lower-extremity bypass, colectomy, lobectomy, and nephrectomy., Conclusions: In the absence of other information about the quality of surgery at the hospitals near them, Medicare patients undergoing selected cardiovascular or cancer procedures can significantly reduce their risk of operative death by selecting a high-volume hospital.

Background: Medicare's home health care program, consisting primarily of home visits by nurses and health aides, was conceived as a means to facilitate hospital discharge. Because home health care is now one of the fastest-growing categories of Medicare expenditures, we analyzed Medicare claims data to determine current patterns of use., Methods: We used 1993 data from Medicare's National Claims History File to examine the temporal relation between home visits and hospital discharge, as well as the number of months Medicare enrollees received home health care. To determine whether home visits replaced hospital services, we calculated population-based utilization rates, adjusted for age and sex, for enrollees living in the 310 U.S. metropolitan statistical areas and determined whether the areas with higher rates of home health care also had lower admission rates or shorter lengths of stay. Finally, we compared the geographic variation in use of home health care with that of other Medicare services., Results: Roughly 3 million Medicare enrollees received over 160 million home health care visits in 1993. Seventy-eight percent of the visits either occurred more than a month after hospital discharge (35 percent) or were not associated with any inpatient care during the previous six months (43%). Home health care often represented a long-term intervention: 61 percent of the visits were to enrollees who received home health care for six months or more. We could find no evidence that home health care was substituted for hospital care; the metropolitan statistical areas with higher rates of home health care did not have fewer hospital admissions or shorter lengths of stay. There was more geographic variation in the use of home health care than in the use of other major categories of Medicare services (e.g., hospital admissions and physicians' services). Five states (all in the South) had more than 9000 visits per 1000 enrollees, and 14 states had fewer than 3000 visits per 1000 enrollees., Conclusions: Home health care visits are used primarily to provide long-term care. There is no evidence that services provided at home replace hospital services, and the dramatic geographic variation in home visits suggests a lack of consensus about their appropriate use.

Background: Efforts at physician-payment reform in the United States have focused largely on the relative incomes of primary care physicians and specialists, who more often have procedure-based practices. Comparisons of the incomes of physicians and other professional groups have received less attention., Methods: We used standard financial techniques to determine the return on educational investment over a working lifetime for five groups of professionals: primary care physicians, specialist physicians, dentists, attorneys, and graduates of business schools., Results: In current dollars, the difference in the average future hourly income between a given professional and a high-school graduate of the same age, after educational expenses are subtracted (average hours-adjusted net present value of the educational investment) was greatest for specialist physicians and attorneys; dentists and businesspeople had intermediate values; and primary care physicians had the lowest value. The annual yield on the educational investment over a working life (hours-adjusted internal rate of return) was 15.9 percent for primary care physicians, as compared with 29.0 percent for businesspeople, 25.4 percent for attorneys, 20.9 percent for specialist physicians, and 20.7 percent for dentists. A sensitivity analysis showed that primary care physicians did less well in terms of the return on investment than the other groups even when we varied the assumptions in our model widely and that specialist physicians did less well than attorneys working in law firms and dental specialists., Conclusions: Students can expect a poorer financial return on their educational investment when they choose a career in primary care medicine than when they choose a procedure-based medical or surgical specialty, business, the law, or dentistry.

Background: Physician profiling is a method of cost control that focuses on patterns of care instead of on specific clinical decisions. It is one cost-control method that takes into account physicians' desire to curb the intrusion of administrative mechanisms into the clinical encounter. To provide a concrete example of profiling, we analyzed the inpatient practice patterns of physicians in Florida and Oregon., Methods: Data for 1991 from Medicare's National Claims History File were used to profile 12,720 attending physicians in Florida and 2589 in Oregon. For each attending physician, we determined the total relative value of all physicians' services delivered during each patient's hospital stay. Relative value was measured in relative-value units (RVUs), according to the resource-based relative-value scale used by Medicare in determining payments to physicians. The mean number of RVUs per admission was then adjusted for the physician's case mix according to the patients' assigned diagnosis-related groups. The influence of the physician's specialty and of selected types of services (such as imaging and endoscopy) was also examined., Results: Florida physicians used markedly more resources, on average, than their colleagues in Oregon (46 vs. 30 case-mix-adjusted RVUs per admission). The difference was apparent for all specialties and all types of service. To illustrate the profiling data potentially available to the medical staffs of individual hospitals, we examined specific data on individual attending physicians and for various types of service for three hospitals' staffs. Despite similar overall profiles that fell below the national mean, each staff had a different practice pattern and would require different efforts to improve efficiency., Conclusions: In an effort to encourage further debate, we have described one method of physician profiling. Profiling data help identify and characterize differences in practice style to which individual physicians or hospital staffs can respond. Because profiling is not based on rigid rules, it is a cost-containment strategy that can easily accommodate legitimate exceptions; it is therefore preferable to methods in which the appropriateness of each clinical decision is judged separately.

To compare the cost effectiveness of bone marrow transplantation and conventional chemotherapy, we evaluated the resources used in the care of adult patients with acute nonlymphocytic leukemia who were enrolled in a prospective trial and received induction chemotherapy at a single university hospital. Nineteen patients were subsequently treated with chemotherapy and 17 with transplantation. Cost accounting began with induction chemotherapy and extended over a five-year period. Costs were estimated by means of a resource-based, multivariate prediction model. The transplantation and chemotherapy groups had virtually equivalent use of resources (hospital days, laboratory tests, blood products, and radiologic and operative procedures) over five years, except for a 10-fold increase in the use of the intensive care unit for the patients who underwent transplantation (P less than 0.001). The total costs over five years were estimated at $193,000 per patient for transplantation and $136,000 per patient for chemotherapy (P = 0.02). At five years, the costs per year of life saved ("life-year") were nearly equal ($62,500 per life-year for transplantation vs. $64,000 per life-year for chemotherapy) because of the better rate of disease-free survival in patients who underwent bone marrow transplantation. We conclude that the cost effectiveness of bone marrow transplantation to treat acute nonlymphocytic leukemia compares favorably with that of chemotherapy and could be further enhanced if intensive care resources were used more selectively.