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In recent years, global attention to carbon emissions has increased, becoming one of the main drivers of global climate change. Accurate prediction of carbon emission trends in small and medium-sized countries and scientific regulation of carbon emissions can provide theoretical support and policy references for the effective and rational use of energy and the promotion of the coordinated development of energy, environment, and economy. This paper establishes a grey prediction model using the classical Logistic mathematical model in a determined environment to investigate the carbon emission system. At the same time, we use the basic principle of fractional-order accumulation to establish a grey prediction model with fractional-order Logistic and obtain the parameter estimation and time-response equation of the new model by solving the model through the theory related to fractional-order operators. The particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to complete the optimization process of the order of the fractional order grey prediction model and obtain the optimal model order. Then, the new model is applied to predict carbon emissions in five medium-emission countries: Ethiopia, Djibouti, Ghana, Belgium, and Austria. The new model shows better advantages in the validity analysis process, and the simulation results indicate that the new model proposed in this paper has stronger stability and better simulation and prediction accuracy than other comparative models, proving the model's validity. Finally, the model is used to forecast the carbon emissions of these five countries for the five years of 2021–2025, and the results are analyzed, and relevant policy recommendations are made. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main problem confronting the world is human-caused climate change, which is intrinsically linked to the need for energy both now and in the future. Renewable (green) energy has been proposed as a future solution, and many renewable energy technologies have been developed for different purposes. However, progress toward net zero carbon emissions by 2050 and the role of renewable energy in 2050 are not well known. This paper reviews different renewable energy technologies developed by different researchers and their potential and challenges to date, and it derives lessons for world and especially African policymakers. According to recent research results, the mean global capabilities for solar, wind, biogas, geothermal, hydrogen, and ocean power are 325 W, 900 W, 300 W, 434 W, 150 W, and 2.75 MWh, respectively, and their capacities for generating electricity are 1.5 KWh, 1182.5 KWh, 1.7 KWh, 1.5 KWh, 1.55 KWh, and 3.6 MWh, respectively. Securing global energy leads to strong hope for meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), such as those for hunger, health, education, gender equality, climate change, and sustainable development. Therefore, renewable energy can be a considerable contributor to future fuels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfires are becoming more frequent due to the global climate change. Large amounts of greenhouse gases emitted by wildfires can lead to increases in extreme climate events. Accurately estimating the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from wildfires is important for mitigation of climate change. In this paper, we develop a novel method to estimate wildfire CO2 emissions from the relationship between local CO2 emissions and XCO2 anomalies. Our method uses the WRF-Chem assimilation system from OCO-2 XCO2 retrievals which coupled with Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). To validate our results, we conducted three experiments evaluating the wildfire CO2 emissions over the conterminous United States. The four-month average wildfire emissions from July to October in 2015∼2018 were estimated at 4.408 Tg C, 1.784 Tg C, 1.514 Tg C and 2.873 Tg C, respectively. Compared to the average of established inventories CT2019B, FINNv1.5 and GFASv1.2 fire emissions, our estimates fall within one standard deviation, except for 2017 due to lacking of OCO-2 XCO2 retrievals. These results suggest that the regional carbon assimilation system, such as WRF-Chem/DART, using OCO-2 XCO2 retrievals has a great potential for accurately tracking regional wildfire emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the role of electricity in the transition to renewable energy to mitigate climate change. A systematic literature review with the Scopus database identified 92 papers relevant to the renewable electricity transition. A PESTLE (Political, Economic, Sociological, Technological, Legal, and Environmental) review of the papers provided a multidisciplinary analysis. The Paris Agreement created a global movement for carbon neutrality to address the threats of climate change, calling for a transition to renewable electricity to lead the way and expand into new sectors and regions. Although smaller renewable technologies are ramping up, complexities thwarting the transition include locked-in assets, high upfront costs, variability of solar and wind energy, infrastructure, difficulty in decarbonizing transportation and industry, material resource constraints, and fossil fuel support. This research found that renewables are not replacing fossil fuels to date but adding further energy demands, so that greenhouse gas emissions rose in 2021 despite an increased renewable electricity share. Without a major shift in the trillions of dollars of subsidies and investment away from fossil fuels to renewables, catastrophic climate change is predicted. This paper found that the Paris Agreement's commitment to net-zero carbon and the transition to renewable electricity are undermined by record-high levels of subsidies and financing for fossil fuel industry expansion. Transitioning to a climate-neutral economy requires an investment away from fossil fuels into renewable energy ecosystems. Renewable electricity provides possibilities to realize sustainable development goals, climate stabilization, job creation, a green economy, and energy security with careful planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The constantly growing demand for energy, the need to ensure the security of its supply, and the progressing climate changes related to the emission of carbon dioxide and other pollutants have caused, in recent years, an increase in interest in offshore wind energy. This paper presents all the work that needs to be done to build a wind farm in the Baltic Sea. The work focuses on the description of the equipment and the necessary tests to perform in order to analyze the obtained data. The data will allow for unambiguous interpretation and the selection of a convenient location for the construction of a wind farm. The final product of the work is a cost estimate, in which the costs of undertaking such an undertaking are shown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is progressing faster than previously envisioned. Efforts to mitigate the challenges of greenhouse gas emissions by countries through the establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has resulted in continuous environmental improvements in the energy efficiency and carbon emission signatures of products. In this paper, an energy–carbon emissions nexus causal model was applied using the Leontief Input–Output mathematical model for low-carbon products in future transport-manufacturing industries., The relationship between energy savings, energy efficiency, and the carbon intensity of products for the carbon emissions signature of the future transport manufacturing in South Africa was established. The interrelationship between the variables resulted in a 29% improvement in the total energy intensity of the vehicle body part products, 7.22% in the cumulative energy savings, and 16.25% in the energy efficiency. The scope that has been examined in this paper will be interesting to agencies of government, researchers, policymakers, business owners, and practicing engineers in future transport manufacturing and could serve as a fundamental guideline for future studies in these areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews and assesses India's energy policy in the context of its commitment to achieve the target of net-zero carbon emissions by 2070. It emphasizes the central role of green electrification, particularly through the expansion of solar power capacity. It discusses policies outside the energy sector that need to be part of a strategy of achieving this target, including the use of information technology, infrastructure development, and transportation. Furthermore, it examines possible policy options for accelerating the target date to 2050, especially with the use of carbon capture to manage the transition from the current heavy use of coal. The paper also discusses the possible financial and growth implications of various strategy options, arguing that feasible external financing commitments can allow India to achieve net-zero goals without sacrificing economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has made remarkable achievements in reducing carbon emissions in recent years. However, there is still much reduction room before achieving carbon neutrality. In Beijing, the capital of China, it is a strategic choice to respond to global climate change by promoting green and low-carbon development. This paper calculates the carbon dioxide emissions of key industries in Beijing and analyzes the temporal evolution trend of carbon emissions. Carbon dioxide emissions in Beijing before 2030 are predicted based on the grey prediction GM (1,1) and BP neural network model. The effects of factors of carbon dioxide emissions are discussed using the threshold regression model under different economic conditions. The results show that energy consumption intensity, GDP per capita, and the ownership of civil cars have a positive impact on carbon dioxide emissions, while the number of permanent residents and urban green space areas have a negative impact on carbon dioxide emissions. These findings of carbon emission prediction and influencing factors contribute to carbon reduction path design. Related policy implications on carbon emission reduction are put forward from the aspects of promoting industrial upgrading, accelerating the construction of advanced economic structures, optimizing transportation structures, and strengthening green building development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon neutrality is becoming an important development goal for regions and countries around the world. Land-use cover/change (LUCC), especially urban growth, as a major source of carbon emissions, has been extensively studied to support carbon-neutral planning. However, studies have typically used methods of small-scale urban growth simulation to model urban agglomeration growth to assist in carbon-neutral planning, ignoring the significant characteristics of the process to achieve carbon neutrality: large-scale and long-term. This paper proposes a framework to model large-scale and long-term urban growth, which couples a quantity module and a spatial module to model the quantity and spatial allocation of urban land, respectively. This framework integrates the inertia of historical land-use change, the driving effects of the urbanization law (S-curve), and the traction of the urban agglomeration network to model the long-term quantity change of urban land. Moreover, it couples a partitioned modeling framework, spatially heterogeneous rules derived by geographically weighted regression (GWR), and quantified land-use planning orientations to build a cellular automata (CA) model to accurately allocate the urbanized cells in a large-scale spatial domain. Taking the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GHMGBA) as an example, the proposed framework is calibrated by the urban growth from 2000 to 2010 and validated by that from 2010 to 2020. The figure of merit (FoM) of the results simulated by the framework is 0.2926, and the simulated results are also assessed by some evidence, which both confirm the good performance of the framework to model large-scale and long-term urban growth. Coupling with the coefficients proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), this framework is used to project the carbon emissions caused by urban growth in the GHMGBA from 2020 to 2050. The results indicate that Guangzhou, Foshan, Huizhou, and Jiangmen are under great pressure to achieve the carbon-neutral targets in the future, while Hong Kong, Macao, Shenzhen, and Zhuhai are relatively easy to bring up to the standard. This research contributes to the ability of land-use models to simulate large-scale and long-term urban growth to predict carbon emissions and to support the carbon-neutral planning of the GHMGBA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's economy has made significant strides in the past three decades. As a direct result of China's "one belt, one road" (OBOR) initiative, the country's rate of industrialization and urbanization is currently the fastest in the entire world. This rapid development is largely dependent on the enormous amounts of energy currently being consumed and forms the foundation of the world's high levels of carbon emissions. It is generally agreed that the production of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, is the primary contributor to the current state of climate change. In this paper, a CO2 emission prediction model based on Bi-LSTM is constructed. In order to conduct empirical tests on the model, this study uses data from South Asian countries and China from 2001 to 2020. China's CO2 emissions from 2022 to 2030 were predicted along with those of other countries in order to study the combined effects of the scientific and technological progress, industrial structures, and energy structure factors affecting CO2 emissions. When compared with the LSTM and GRU methods, the Bi-LSTM model's results produced lower MAE, MSE, and MAPE values, indicating that it performs better. According to the findings, carbon emissions represent a significant problem that will become much worse in the future due to China and India's high emissions, particularly in the next 10 years, if the government does not implement policies that help reduce those emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapidly increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide lead to a threat of global climate change. As one of the major sources of carbon emissions in the Antarctic region, shipborne tourism in the Antarctic is expanding rapidly. Consequently, the carbon emissions of shipborne tourism in Antarctica are rapidly increasing. However, there is not enough attention being paid to this issue. In this paper, a calculation model was established to calculate the carbon emissions of cruise ships from the 2003/04 season to the 2016/17 season. The evolution of the carbon emissions from Antarctic cruise ships was described. An aggregate energy efficiency index was developed to evaluate the energy efficiency performance of Antarctic vessels. The key drivers were analyzed to find the paths of carbon reduction. The results show that: (1) The emissions per passenger-trip did not show a downward trend. The total carbon emissions increased continuously with the increasing number of tourists. The total carbon emissions in the 2016/17 season was double that in the 2003/04 season. (2) The aggregate energy efficiency index of Antarctic tour vessels has not reached an advanced level yet. It is the main reason for the high value of emissions per passenger-trip. (3) Due to the oversupply of Antarctica tour ships, there is a low rate of occupancy, which accounts for the decline in aggregate energy efficiency from the 2014/15 season to the 2016/17 season. This study suggests that the administrators of Antarctica should strengthen supervision of the tourism market, control the rapid growth in the number of cruise ships, improve the aggregate energy efficiency of cruise ships and form an efficient and green Antarctic tourism management system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is one of the global issues being combatted in recent times. One of the measures is a worldwide cutdown on carbon emissions. This has brought about the rapid development of technologies that can best actualise this goal. The decentralised energy system is designed to harness the strengths of small power-generating sources such as renewable energy sources in a noncentralised manner to help meet the global need for clean energy. Renewable energy sources are faced with the challenge of intermittency, which brings about instability in the grid. Another source of clean energy is nuclear energy, which is traditionally large and not flexible; however, the recent development of technology has resulted in a scaled-down version of the large nuclear plants that are more flexible yet provide clean and stable electricity. This paper explores the possibility of deploying nuclear microreactors in the decentralised energy system and describes the features and the challenges of a decentralised energy system. The features of the small modular reactor that make it a viable candidate for the generating source in the decentralised energy system are explored. A case study for a DES system with a microreactor was conducted for a rural area in Nigeria. The HOMER software was used in simulating the optimum system, while TOPSIS was used in ranking the systems. The result showed that the PV/nuclear/battery system ranked first, followed by the PV/nuclear/wind and battery system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urbanisation has become a challenge as the urban population grows while cities' land areas, amenities, and green spaces have remained relatively unchanged or even declined. While urban areas are growing, the link between humans and nature is fading. Increasingly, cities are being affected by climate change impacts and so, the role of media in providing updated and correct knowledge to the public is becoming more valuable. Based on this theoretical ground, the research evaluated two printed Iranian newspapers' functionality in informing the public on Tehran climate based on two main themes of air pollution and greenery spaces, spanning seven years (2007–2014). The paper evaluated the tone, style, and outline of messages publicised by the press media to explore the following questions: Which types of news are dominantly conceptualised as the significant debates and concerns on Tehran's climatic issues? Who is mainly writing about Tehran's climatic issues? Is the public being informed effectively on the surrounding arguments and issues by reading newspapers? As such, five self-descriptive indicators were developed: 'Layout' (Title, Subject, Content), 'Message' (Public Awareness, Educating, Alarming), 'Contributor' (Columnist, Researcher, Authority), 'Spatiality' (Local, Provincial, National, International), and 'Allocated space' (10% to 100%). A text analysis of Persian newspapers using a Structured Query Language (SQL) was employed to extract data. It was found that the news articles mostly covered public awareness, followed by alarming messages on climate. The findings highlighted the critical role of researchers in generating scientific news while encouraging media for disseminating more educating messages on climate change in urban areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To avoid the potential adverse impacts of climate change from global warming, it is suggested that the target of net zero emissions should be reached by this mid-century. Thailand is aiming to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Since electricity generation is one of the largest producers of carbon dioxide emission, the associated emissions must be greatly reduced to achieve the targets mentioned above. Thus, new generation expansion plans must be well developed. This paper discusses the development of generation expansion plans considering Thailand's latest policies along with enhancement of the existing multi-period linear programming model, allowing new electricity generation technologies having low emissions, e.g., solar PV with battery and hydrogen blending in natural gas, to be integrated into generation expansion planning. Then, four generation expansion plans with different levels of hydrogen blending in natural gas are proposed and discussed. It is found that Thailand can achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 by promoting more use of renewable energy altogether with trade-off between land for solar PV installation and amount of hydrogen blended in natural gas. The lesson learned from this study provides crucial information about possible pathways to achieve carbon neutrality in the electricity sector for policy makers in other countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and efforts to mitigate it have given rise to an interest in the relationship between industry competitiveness, energy efficiency, and carbon emissions. A better understanding of this relationship can be essential for economic and environmental decision-makers. This paper presents empirical research evaluating industry competitiveness through the factors of energy efficiency and carbon emission in Europe's most energy-intensive industries. The designed industry competitiveness measure index consists of seven components, grouped into three equally weighted sub-indexes: export performance, energy, and environmental. The export performance of the industry is described by the industry export growth rate, the share of the industry's export, and the effects on the industry's competitiveness of changes in a country's export. The energy intensity of the industry and energy prices are integrated into the energy sub-index. The environmental sub-index consists of the industry's emissions intensity, and the ratio of freely allocated allowances and verified emissions indicators. The findings indicate that countries with the highest index value also have a positive energy intensity and carbon emission indicator value. The average index value of each industry gradually reduces to zero, and the standard deviation of the index value shows a diminishing trend throughout all sectors, which implies that competitiveness in all sectors is increasing and that all countries are nearing the industry average. The ANOVA results show that: (1) the competitiveness index value was statistically significantly different in the investigated countries; (2) the competitiveness index value was statistically non-significantly different in the investigated industries; (3) there was a significant effect of the interaction between country and industry on the competitiveness index value. These results suggest that the country itself and industry/country interaction significantly affect the competitiveness index. However, it should be mentioned that industry per se does not substantially affect the competitiveness index score. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the light of climate change, the drive for zero carbon buildings is known as one response to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Within New Zealand, research on climate change mitigation and environmental impacts of buildings has received renewed attention. However, there has been no detailed investigation of zero carbon building practices. This paper undertakes an exploratory study through the use of semi-structured interviews with government representatives and construction industry experts to examine how the New Zealand construction industry plans and implements zero carbon buildings. The results show that New Zealand's construction industry is in the early stage of transiting to a net-zero carbon built environment. Key actions to date are focused on devising a way for the industry to develop and deliver zero carbon building projects. Central and local governments play a leading role in driving zero carbon initiatives. Leading construction firms intend to maximise the carbon reduction in building projects by developing a roadmap to achieve the carbon target by 2050 and rethinking the way of designing and constructing buildings. The research results provide an insight into the initial practices and policy implications for the uptake of zero carbon buildings in Aotearoa New Zealand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is generally accepted in the scientific community that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, which lead to global warming, arise from using fossil fuels, namely coal, oil and gas, as energy sources. Consequently, alleviating the effects of global warming and climate change necessitates substantial reductions in the use of fossil fuel energy. This paper uses a financial market-based approach to investigate whether positive stock returns cause changes in CO2 emissions, or vice-versa, based on the Granger causality test to determine cause and effect, or leader and follower. If Granger causality can be determined in any direction, this will enable a clear directional statement regarding temporal predictability between stock returns and CO2 emissions. The empirical data include annual CO2 emissions from fuel combustion of the three main fossil energy sources, namely coal, oil and gas, based on 18 countries with sophisticated financial markets that are in the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Index from 1971 to 2017. The empirical results show clearly that all the statistically significant causality findings are unidirectional from the stock market returns to CO2 emissions from coal, oil and gas, but not the reverse. More importantly, the regression results suggest that when stock returns rise by 1%, CO2 emissions from coal combustion decrease by 9% among the countries that are included in MSCI World Index. Furthermore, when stock returns rise 1%, CO2 emissions from oil combustion increase by 2%, but stock returns have no significant effect on CO2 emissions from gas combustion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As enterprises are the major perpetrators of global climate change, concerns about global warming, climate change, and global greenhouse gas emissions continue to attract attention, and have become international concerns. The tire industry, which is a high-pollution, high-carbon emission industry, is facing pressure to reduce its carbon emissions. Thus, carbon prices and carbon trading have become issues of global importance. In order to solve this environmental problem, the purpose of this paper is to combine mathematical programming, Theory of Constraints (TOC), and Activity-Based Costing (ABC) to formulate the green production decision model with carbon taxes and carbon right costs, in order to achieve the optimal product mix decision under various constraints. This study proposes three different scenario models with carbon taxes and carbon right used to evaluate the effect on profit of changes in carbon tax rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]