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In recent years, global environmental problems such as air pollution and the greenhouse effect have become more and more serious. The utilization of biomass energy not only can promote low-carbon transformation to establish a competitive advantage through value creation under the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality but is also an important force in solving environmental problems. Government subsidy policies play an important role in promoting the development of biomass energy utilization. Taking straw as an example, this paper constructs a straw recycling supply chain system dynamics model consisting of farmers, acquisition stations, power plants, and pyrolysis plants based on a real-world case. Two types of straw processing, namely power generation and pyrolysis, are considered in the model. This paper analyzes the economic and environmental impacts of three subsidy policies, namely the unified rate policy, the linear growth policy, and a two-step policy, by comparing the profit, carbon, and pollution emission reduction benefits of the supply chain under different subsidy scenarios. The result shows that, among the three subsidy policies, the unified rate policy shows the best-promoting effect. The research results and policy implications in this paper could be a reference for governments trying to formulate subsidy policies for developing biomass energy utilization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Straw, which is characterized by its low cost, large quantity, and rich supply of biomass energy, is often converted into energy that can be utilized in industrial production through pyrolysis technology. This paper examines the pyrolysis experiments of four kinds of straw (rice, wheat, peanut, and corn) from the Henan Province of China, conducted in an air environment with varying temperature-rise rates. Based on the experimental results, an analysis was conducted on the effect of the rate of temperature rise on the degree of straw pyrolysis and the pyrolysis characteristics of each type of straw. The activation energies of the pyrolysis reactions were calculated utilizing the Kissinger–Akahira–Sunose (KAS), Flynn–Wall–Ozawa (FWO), and Starink methods. It was concluded that the pyrolysis process of all four types of straw could roughly be classified into three stages: dehydration and drying stage, volatile release stage, and carbonization stage. Among the four types of straw evaluated, rice straw exhibited the most favorable combustion performance, while wheat straw demonstrated the best pyrolysis effect. Increasing the heating rate resulted in a pronounced thermal hysteresis effect during the straw's pyrolysis, as evidenced by the TG and DTG curves shifting toward higher temperatures. The reaction speed increased as the heating rate increased, and the amount of residual carbon displayed an upward trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to present the advances related to the biotechnological application of lipases Y. lipolytica, presenting their properties and more efficient ways to use them in different industrial applications. Waste treatment and bioremediation highlight recent studies and advances and the interest in large-scale applications in the food sector and biofuel production. The USA and China, two major world powers in industy, are of utmost importance in the search for the improvement in the development and properties of a controlled system for the large-scale production of a significant number of applications of lipase from Y. lipolytica. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization, we must vigorously develop renewable energy. As one of the important renewable energy sources, the development and utilization of biomass energy has a high cost, and it is difficult to compete with traditional fossil energy in the early stage of development. Therefore, it is necessary for the government to escort the development of the biomass energy industry through legal means. First of all, on the basis of fully analyzing the development prospects of China's biomass energy, the article sorts out the laws and regulations related to biomass energy in China, and finds the shortcomings. Secondly, this paper draws on the institutional experience of the United States, Brazil, Sweden and other countries with relatively developed biomass energy industry, and provides suggestions for improvement from three aspects: law, policy and administrative system, with a view to supporting China's development of biomass energy industry and realizing the "dual carbon target" theoretically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Minimum volume of straw should be retained in collecting wheat straw in order to obtain sustainable agricultural biomass energy and measure the energy utilization potential of wheat straw when considering ecological balance. Based on relevant literature, this paper calculates the minimum, medium, and maximum volume of wheat straw retention in various types of soil and designs three different scenarios of minimum, medium, and maximum wheat straw retention. Taking Henan province in China as a case, this paper calculates the potential of wheat straw for energy utilization using linear regression method and scenario analysis, with consideration of influencing factors such as the harvest coefficient and combustion ratio of wheat straw. The results show that the energy utilization potential of wheat straw in Henan province in 2020, 2030, 2050 are 13.77, 16.48, 22.54 million tons of coal equivalent (TCEs), respectively, in the minimum retention scenario, assuming that wheat straw is not directly used for combustion. Excessive straw left in the field causes resource waste and produces CH4 and other greenhouse gases. This paper finds that energy potential of wheat straw for energy utilization is limited when ecological balance is considered, however, it is beneficial to the sustainable development of crop biomass energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes the network data envelopment analysis (DEA) model accounting for negative externalities and applies it for decomposition of profit inefficiency in the biomass-agriculture circular system (Bio-AG system). A circular structure of the Bio-AG system which is different from the previously applied network structures is assumed. Since the negative externalities (i.e., pollutant emissions from the biomass industry) occur in the Bio-AG system, the property rights are taken into consideration to model the externalities-adjusted profits. Therefore, the changes in profits due to changes in the property rights (assuming no property rights, allocating property rights to agricultural sector, and allocating property rights to biomass power generation sector) are quantified. Further, the decomposition shows that the biomass power generation sector is less affected by technical inefficiency if contrasted to allocative inefficiency in terms of the profit loss. The findings suggest that the biomass power generation technology influences the profits of the biomass industry. What is more, the inefficient allocation of resources is now the key factor undermining performance of the biomass industry. Therefore, the government should adopt measures to improve the allocation of resources and prevent excessive investments or development of less efficient technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Black carbon (BC) aerosols have a considerable impact on humans because they not only cause environmental pollution and reduce visibility but also harm human health. During the heating season in northern China, a large amount of coal is burned for heating, producing a large amount of BC. There are few studies on BC properties during the heating season. In this paper, BC is measured optically, so it is referred to as equivalent black carbon (EBC). This paper investigated EBC properties in depth during the heating and nonheating seasons of a typical urban environment in China with two years of EBC measurements. The results show that: (1) EBC aerosol concentrations during the heating season were significantly higher than those during the nonheating season. (2) The main sources of EBC aerosols throughout the year are liquid sources. During the heating season, solid sources (coal and biomass combustion) are dominant. (3) The proportion of brown carbon (BrC) produced by biomass energy during the heating season is greater than that during the nonheating season. (4) The resulting backward trajectory indicates that a large portion of the high EBC aerosol concentration sources originate from northern and northwestern China. Our results reveal that the characteristics and sources of EBC in the urban environment of northern China vary widely, suggesting that different measures should be taken to reduce BC aerosol concentrations during heating and nonheating seasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we develop an agent-based model to explore a feasible way of simultaneously providing sufficient food and bioenergy feedstocks in China. Concerns over the competition for agricultural land resources between food and bioenergy supply hinder the further development of bioenergy, especially in China, the country that needs tofeed the world's largest population. Prior research has suggested the introduction of energy crops and reviewed the resulting agricultural land use change in China. However, there is a lack of quantitative studies which estimate the value, contribution, and impact of bioenergy for specific conditions at the county level and provide adequate information to guide local practices. Tofill this gap, we choose the Jiangsu Province in China as a case study, build up a spatial-agent dynamic model of agricultural land use, and perform a sensitivity analysis for important parameters. The simulation results show that straw from conventional crops generally dominates Jiangsu's biomass supply with a contribution above 85%. The sensitivity analyses reveal severe consequences of bioenergy targets for local land use. For Jiangsu Province, reclaimed mudflats, an alternative to arable lands for energy crop plantation, help to secure the local biomass supply and to alleviate the land use conflict between food and biomass production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As one of the most important renewable and sustainable energy sources, the forest biomass energy resource has always been the focus of attention of scholars and policy makers. However, its potential is still uncertain in China, especially with respect to its spatial distribution. In this paper, the quantity and distribution of Chinese forest biomass energy resources are explored based mainly on forestry statistics data rather than forest resource inventory data used by most previous studies. The results show that the forest biomass energy resource in China was 169 million tons in 2010, of which wood felling and bucking residue (WFBR),wood processing residue (WPR), bamboo processing residue, fuel wood and firewood used by farmers accounted for 38%, 37%, 6%, 4% and 15%, respectively. The highest resource was located in East China, accounting for nearly 39.0% of the national amount, followed by the Southwest and South China regions, which accounted for 17.4% and 16.3%, respectively. At the provincial scale, Shandong has the highest distribution, accounting for 11.9% of total resources, followed by Guangxi and Fujian accounting for 10.3% and 10.2%, respectively. The actual wood-processing residue (AWPR) estimated from the actual production of different wood products (considering the wood transferred between regions) showed apparent differences from the local wood processing residue (LWPR), which assumes that no wood has been transferredbetween regions. Due to the large contribution of WPR to total forestry bioenergy resources, the estimation of AWPR will provide a more accurate evaluation of the total amount and the spatial distribution of forest biomass energy resources in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a major technical route to utilize biomass energy, biomass combustion power generation (BCPG) has been shown to be of environmental and economic significance. According to the operating experience, the installed capacity has a decisive impact on the operation and economic return of BCPG projects. In China, an installed capacity of either 30 MW or 12 MW is often chosen for constructing a BCPG project. To explore which one is more suitable for China, this paper uses actual operating data to compare the operation performance and techno-economics of two representative BCPG projects with an installed capacity of 30 MW and 12 MW. The results show that the operation situation and electricity production of the 30 MW project are better than those of the 12 MW project. The 30 MW project has a lower biomass consumption than the 12 MW project to produce per unit of electricity. The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of the 30 MW project is greater than the industry benchmark in China and is almost three times the IRR of the 12 MW project. Therefore, it is recommended to construct BCPG projects with installed capacity of 30 MW in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small-scale bio-energy projects have been launched in rural areas of China and are considered as alternatives to fossil-fuel energy. However, energetic and environmental evaluation of these projects has rarely been carried out, though it is necessary for their long-term development. A village-level biomass gasification project provides an example. A hybrid life-cycle assessment (LCA) of its total nonrenewable energy (NE) cost and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is presented in this paper. The results show that the total energy cost for one joule of biomass gas output from the project is 2.93 J, of which 0.89 J is from nonrenewable energy, and the related GHG emission cost is 1.17 × 10-4 g CO2-eq over its designed life cycle of 20 years. To provide equivalent effective calorific value for cooking work, the utilization of one joule of biomass gas will lead to more life cycle NE cost by 0.07 J and more GHG emissions by 8.92 × 10-5 g CO2-eq compared to natural gas taking into consideration of the difference in combustion efficiency and calorific value. The small-scale bio-energy project has fallen into dilemma, i.e., struggling for survival, and for a more successful future development of village-level gasification projects, much effort is needed to tide over the plight of its development, such as high cost and low efficiency caused by decentralized construction, technical shortcomings and low utilization rate of by-products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microalgal biofuel research in China has made noticeable progress, and algae cultivation for biofuel production is considered to be an important contribution to Greenhouse Gas (GHG) mitigation and energy security. In this paper, the algal biofuel potentiality in China was reviewed from the points of view of algal biodiversity, algal culture collection, GHGs (especially CO2) mitigation, and the availability of the required sunlight, wastewater and land resources. The cultivation of microalgae utilizing power plants gas with large amounts of CO2 and wastewaters from urban households, industry and animal husbandry are suitable for large scale production in China. Land is hardly a limitation for algae cultivation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rapid progress of socio-economic development and urbanization in China, a wide variety of literature has focused on the phenomenon of energy-consumption disparity, which in turn could be related to numerous fundamental energy dilemmas that China must deal with now or soon, including energy use inefficiency, regional energy shortage, insufficient use of green energy, etc. However, in most cases, only a tendency scenario is discussed, while identifying which factors are more likely to affect the improvement of energy supply/use has not yet been fully explored. Therefore, this paper attempts to explore differences in energy consumption in specific, household-level aspects. Based on the information provided by Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS2015), the Gini coefficient and the Lorentz asymmetry coefficient are used to measure the difference among various categories of energy type and end use within and between different geographical sub-groups. The findings show that: (1) household energy-consumption behaviors exhibit a complicated effect on the overall level of energy-consumption difference; (2) from the supply side, energy users show the most significant difference in biomass energy consumption, while from the demand side, the contribution of space heating to the difference in total energy consumption is the highest; (3) a great urban–rural difference in energy consumption is generally observed with its difference within rural areas being much greater than in urban areas; (4) the eastern, middle and western regions weight differently in explaining the overall difference of energy consumption. These findings provide meaningful materials and references for policymakers in China to understand the overall situation of individual energy consumption to a great extent, and to locate key points to reform the current energy policy framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent times, there has been a growing demand for the use of biomass as an alternative energy due to its sustainable nature. At present, anaerobic digestion and gasification has been proven as a promising technology for exploiting this energy from biomass. This review aims to provide a comprehensive and detailed analysis of the combination of anaerobic and gasification technology as a hybrid system for sustainable waste-to-energy generation. This review reveals that both anaerobic digestion and biomass gasification have been successfully demonstrated as technologies for energy recovery. However, to improve the conversion efficiency in both technologies, the utilization of an intensifier, additive, and enhancer will be required. Moreover, temperature has been identified as a major factor affecting the technologies and should be considered. The bibliometric study conducted revealed that China is the leading country and has set the pace for other countries to follow suit. Subsequently, waste-to-energy research could be easily implemented on a global scale. This study recommends an experimental study of anaerobic digestion and gasification as a hybrid system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lignocellulosic biomasses are used in several applications, such as energy production, materials, and biofuels. These applications result in increased consumption and waste generation of these materials. However, alternative uses are being developed to solve the problem of waste generated in the industry. Thus, research is carried out to ensure the use of these biomasses as enzymatic support. These surveys can be accompanied using the advanced bibliometric analysis tool that can help determine the biomasses used and other perspectives on the subject. With this, the present work aims to carry out an advanced bibliometric analysis approaching the main studies related to the use of lignocellulosic biomass as an enzymatic support. This study will be carried out by highlighting the main countries/regions that carry out productions, research areas that involve the theme, and future trends in these areas. It was observed that there is a cooperation between China, USA, and India, where China holds 28.07% of publications in this area, being the country with the greatest impact in the area. Finally, it is possible to define that the use of these new supports is a trend in the field of biotechnology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biomass is the fourth largest energy source in the world; it is easy to store and can be converted into various kinds of renewable energies. The biomass cogeneration system is an important way to utilize biomass energy, especially in northern China. At present, there are many problems in biomass power plants in China, such as high latent heat loss of chimney and cooling towers, low power generation efficiency, and thermal efficiency. In order to solve this problem, this paper introduces low vacuum circulating water heating technology in the biomass cogeneration system, and expounds the differences between China and Western countries in biomass power plants. Based on this background, the technology is redesigned and reformed to make it more suitable for the biomass fuel varieties in the power plant location, and realize the localization of technology and the expansion of scale. The application of this improved technology in China's biomass cogeneration project is analyzed. Based on the biomass cogeneration project in the DC County of China, the analysis confirms that the designed low vacuum circulating water heating technology is suitable for biomass power generation projects with agricultural and forestry wastes as raw materials, and its application can greatly improve the heat utilization efficiency of the whole cogeneration system. At the same time, in order to estimate the possibility of profitable investment when the key financial parameters change, the financial risk is analyzed. The results show that the probability of 90% net present value (NPV) in 15 years is between 355.28 million RMB and 623.96 million RMB, and the internal rate of return can reach 17.7%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has abundant biomass resources, which are difficult to collect and thus are underutilized. However, the potential estimation of biomass energy can result in a comprehensive understanding of bioenergy resources in order to establish a technology roadmap for the region's bioenergy development. Therefore, it is essential to estimate the potential of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei biomass resources and bioenergy utilization. In this paper, the amount of main biomass resources for possible energy use and bioenergy utilization are calculated based on a statistical data estimation method for crop residues; human, poultry, and livestock manure; and municipal solid wastes. On the basis of biomass resources and bioenergy utilization potential, the technology roadmap is established. The results show that the amount for available biomass energy use is unevenly distributed in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and the largest amount of resources is crop residues (36.52 million tons or 18.26 million tons coal equivalent). The biogas from human, poultry, and livestock manure and densified solids from crop residue technology roadmap is suitable for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the abundant straw resources in Northeast China and the huge external costs associated with fossil fuels, straw-based biomass power plants have emerged as a popular alternative to coal-fired power plants. The sustainability of these green alternatives depends on straw supply from farmers, yet little is known about their perceptions regarding such supply because of a lack of cooperation in the supply chain. To better understand farmers' opinions on supplying straw, this study examined their trust in middlemen, perceptions regarding risk in straw supply, the possibility of reducing transaction costs, and their willingness to supply straw. Data were collected from 275 farmers in the national bioenergy industry area inWangkui County, Northeast China. We investigated the theoretical and empirical connections between trust and risk perception, trust and the possibility of reducing transaction costs, and trust and willingness to supply straw. The results indicated that education, income, and trust factors explained farmers' risk perceptions, the possibility that they will reduce transaction costs, and their willingness to supply straw. On the basis of the analysis, a model of the influence of trust on straw supply was established. The overall findings indicated that biomass power plants and middlemen must build trusting relationships with farmers to ensure sustainable biomass supply. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biofuel production in China suffers from many uncertainties due to concerns about the government's support policy and supply of biofuel raw material. Predicting biofuel production is critical to the development of this energy industry. Depending on the biofuel's characteristics, we improve the prediction precision of the conventional prediction method by creating a dynamic fuzzy grey-Markov prediction model. Our model divides random time series decomposition into a change trend sequence and a fluctuation sequence. It comprises two improvements. We overcome the problem of considering the status of future time from a static angle in the traditional grey model by using the grey equal dimension new information and equal dimension increasing models to create a dynamic grey prediction model. To resolve the influence of random fluctuation data and weak anti-interference ability in the Markov chain model, we improve the traditional grey-Markov model with classification of states using the fuzzy set theory. Finally, we use real data to test the dynamic fuzzy prediction model. The results prove that the model can effectively improve the accuracy of forecast data and can be applied to predict biofuel production. However, there are still some defects in our model. The modeling approach used here predicts biofuel production levels based upon past production levels dictated by economics, governmental policies, and technological developments but none of which can be forecast accurately based upon past events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To analyze the main variables affecting crown biomass, we measured crown biomass and a number of variables describing tree size, such as stem diameter at breast height (D), tree height (H), crown width (Cw) and crown length (Cl), from 754 sample trees of four pine species in China, specifically, Pinus massoniana, P. yunnanensis, P. tabulaeformis and P. elliottii. In addition, we developed individual tree crown biomass equations and compatible branch and needle biomass equations based on one-, two- and multi-variable models using nonlinear mixed-effects modeling and error-in-variable simultaneous equations. The results showed that: (i) crown biomass was strongly correlated to D and H, and the new combined variables (D4/H) and (D2/H) were suitable for modeling two- and multi-variable crown biomass equations, respectively; (ii) the four species were ranked as P. yunnanensis, P. massoniana, P. elliottii and P. tabulaeformis from small to large based on estimates from crown biomass equations, and the crown biomass estimate of P. tabulaeformis was about 60% greater than that of P. yunnanensis; (iii) the ratio of branch to crown biomass increased with increasing D, and the four species were ranked as P. elliottii, P. tabulaeformis, P. massoniana and P. yunnanensis from small to large by the proportion of the branch to crown biomass; (iv) the mean prediction errors (MPE's) of the crown biomass equations for the four species were less than 10%, which could meet precision needs for biomass estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated perceptions of a group of Chinese and Indian state forestry professionals (SFPs) related to the potential benefits and challenges of developing forest-based bioenergy projects (FBPs) in their countries. A total of 110 SFPs participated in the study (55 from each country). The results showed that the SFPs widely agreed upon the potential economic and ecological benefits from developing FBPs in their countries. The economic benefits of job creation and additional income to forest departments were the two most accepted benefits by the SFPs. Two potential challenges of developing FBPs-- namely, the lack of suitable technologies and the absence of supportive policies--were considered the most significant by the SFPs. Principal component analysis revealed three key dimensions (ecological, economic and social) of the SFPs' perceptions of FBPs. The findings from the study imply that in order to become viable, the development of FBPs in these two countries must put emphasis on the sustainability aspects by addressing the environmental, economic and societal elements of FBPs. In addition, framing supportive policies, the development of technologies and building infrastructure for FBPs are needed for their successful implementation in China and India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biomass gasification to produce burnable gas now attracts an increasing interest for production flexibility in the renewable energy system. However, the biomass gasification technology using dual fluidized bed which is most suitable for burnable gas production still encounters problems of low production efficiency and high production cost. Here, we proposed a large-scale biomass gasification system to combine dual fluidized bed and high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTR) for co-production of hydrogen and synthetic natural gas (SNG). The design of high-temperature gas-cooled reactor biomass gasification (HTR-BiGas) consists of one steam supply module to heat inlet steam of the gasifier by HTR and ten biomass gasification modules to co-produce 2000 MWth hydrogen and SNG by gasifying the unpretreated biomass. Software for calculating the mass and energy balances of biomass gasification was developed and validated by the experiment results on the Gothenburg biomass gasification plant. The preliminary economic evaluation showed that HTR-BiGas and the other two designs, electric auxiliary heating and increasing recirculated product gas, are economically comparative with present mainstream production techniques and the imported natural gas in China. HTR-BiGas is the best, with production costs of hydrogen and SNG around 1.6 $/kg and 0.43 $/Nm3, respectively. These designs mainly benefit from proper production efficiencies with low fuel-related costs. Compared with HTR-BiGas, electric auxiliary heating is hurt by the higher electric charge and the shortcoming of increasing recirculated product gas is its lower total production. Future works to improve the efficiency and economy of HTR-BiGas and to construct related facilities are introduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study describes the technological processes and characteristics of biomass direct combustion power generation, biomass gasification power generation, biomass mixed combustion power generation, and biomass biogas power generation in terms of their importance and application in China. Under the perspective of environmental and economic sustainability, the life cycle assessment (LCA) method and dynamic analysis method based on time value are used to simulate and evaluate the environmental loads and economic benefits of different power generation processes. By comparing with coal-fired power generation systems, the environmental and economic benefits of different biomass power generation technologies are illustrated. The results shows that biomass gasification power generation has the best environmental benefits, with a total load of 1.05 × 10−5, followed by biomass biogas power generation (9.21 × 10−5), biomass direct combustion power generation (1.23 × 10−4), and biomass mixed combustion power generation (3.88 × 10−4). Compared with the environmental load of coal-fired power generation, the reduction rate was 97.69%, 79.69%, 72.87%, and 14.56% respectively. According to the analysis of the technical economy evaluation results, when the dynamic pay-back period and IRR (internal rate of return) were used as evaluation indicators, the biomass direct combustion power generation has the best pay-back period (7.71 years) and IRR (19.16%), followed by the biogas power generation, with higher dynamic payback period (12.03 years), and lower IRR (13.49%). For gasification power generation and mixed-combustion power generation, their dynamic payback period is long, and the IRR is low. If net present value (NPV) is selected as the evaluation index, the biogas power generation appears to be the best because its net present value per megawatt is 11.94 million yuan, followed by direct combustion power generation (6.09 million yuan), and the net present value of mixed-combustion power generation and gasification power generation is relatively low. Compared with coal-fired power generation, direct combustion power generation and biogas power generation present significant economic benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy consumption issues are important factors concerning the achievement of sustainable social development and also have a significant impact on energy security, particularly for China whose energy structure is experiencing a transformation. Construction of an accurate and reliable prediction model for the volatility changes in energy consumption can provide valuable reference information for policy makers of the government and for the energy industry. In view of this, a novel improved model is developed in this article by integrating the modified state transition algorithm (MSTA) with the Gaussian processes regression (GPR) approach for non-fossil energy consumption predictions for China at the end of the 13th Five-Year Project, in which the MSTA is utilized for effective optimization of hyper-parameters in GPR. Aiming for validating the superiority of MSTA, several comparisons are conducted on two well-known functions and the optimization results show the effectiveness of modification in the state transition algorithm (STA). Then, based on the latest statistical renewable energy consumption data, the MSTA-GPR model is utilized to generate consumption predictions for overall renewable energy and each single renewable energy source, including hydropower, wind, solar, geothermal, biomass and other energies, respectively. The forecasting results reveal that the proposed improved GPR can promote the forecasting ability of basic GPR and obtain the best prediction effect among all the other comparison models. Finally, combined with the forecasting results, the trend of each renewable energy source is analyzed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]