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As climate change intensifies, drought has become a major global engineering and environmental challenge. In critical areas such as agricultural production, accurate drought monitoring is vital for the sustainable development of regional agriculture. Currently, despite extensive use of traditional meteorological stations and remote sensing methods, these approaches have proven to be inadequate in capturing the full extent of drought information and adequately reflecting spatial characteristics. Therefore, to improve the accuracy of drought forecasts and achieve predictions across extensive areas, this paper employs deep learning models, specifically introducing an attention-weighted long short-term memory network model (AW-LSTM), constructs a composite drought monitoring index (CDMI) and validates the model. Results show that: (1) The AW-LSTM model significantly outperforms traditional long short-term memory (LSTM), support vector machine (SVM) and artificial neural network (ANN) models in drought monitoring, offering not only better applicability in meteorological and agricultural drought monitoring but also the ability to accurately predict drought events one month in advance compared to machine learning models, providing a new method for precise and comprehensive regional drought assessment. (2) The Huang-Huai-Hai Plain has shown significant regional variations in drought conditions across different years and months, with the drought situation gradually worsening in the northern part of Hebei Province, Beijing, Tianjin, the southern part of Huai North and the central part of Henan Province from 2001 to 2022, while drought conditions in the northern part of Huai North, southern Shandong Province, western Henan Province and southwestern Hebei Province have been alleviated. (3) During the sowing (June) and harvesting (September) periods for summer maize, the likelihood of drought occurrences is higher, necessitating flexible adjustments to agricultural production strategies to adapt to varying drought conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil moisture (SM) plays an important role in regulating terrestrial–atmospheric water circulation and energy balance. Most of the existing studies have explored the dynamic patterns of SM based on experimental methods. However, the analysis of large-scale regions and long-term SM sequences was limited. Alternatively, satellite remote sensing data is a potential source for SM analysis for large-scale basins. Therefore, the SM data from the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) from 2000 to 2015 is used in this paper to analyze the SM spatial-temporal changes in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). Further, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and meteorological data are used to explore the relationships between SM and NDVI, precipitation, air temperature, and wind speed, respectively. The results showed that the overall trend of SM in the YRB was decreasing from southeast to northwest during the past 16 years. The upper reaches of the YRB had shown a humid trend, with a value of 0.00047 m3·m−3·year−1, mainly due to the increase in precipitation; there was an obvious drought trend in the middle reaches of the YRB, especially in Shanxi Province and Henan Province, with a value of −0.00030 m3·m−3·year−1, which may be owed to vegetation greening increasing the soil evaporation. Overall, it is determined that the main factors influencing SM changes were NDVI and precipitation, followed by air temperature and wind speed. This study can provide a scientific basis for the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics and attributions of SM in the YRB over a long time series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a major grain-producing province in China's Central Plains, Henan Province is severely impacted by drought, making the study of agricultural drought characteristics in the region crucial. Theil–Sen (Sen) trend analysis, the Mann–Kendall (M-K) test and the Hurst index method were used to systematically analyze the spatial variation characteristics of agricultural drought based on the Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI). The results show that: (1) The drought occurs in central, northwestern and southern Henan on an annual scale. The drought situation will continue to increase in northern, eastern northeastern and central Henan. (2) The drought in spring, summer and winter showed an increasing trend, but the opposite trend was observed in autumn. The increasing trend of drought in each season is mainly distributed in northern, central and eastern Henan. (3) The drought in January, February, April, July, September and December showed an increasing trend, while the drought in the other 6 months showed a decreasing trend. The increase in drought during July and August was not pronounced, while the drought situation in September remained largely unchanged. The distribution of drought across the other months exhibited varying patterns across different regions. Overall, the drought trend in Henan Province is on the rise, displaying distinct seasonal and regional patterns in its temporal and spatial distribution. The results can provide a reference for Henan Province to formulate effective measures of drought resistance and disaster reduction to ensure grain production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Characterized by soil moisture content and plant growth, agricultural drought occurs when the soil moisture content is lower than the water requirement of plants. Microwave remote sensing observation has the advantages of all-weather application and sensitivity to soil moisture change. However, microwave remote sensing can only invert 0~5 cm of soil surface moisture, so it cannot effectively reflect the drought situation of farmland. Therefore, this study took Henan Province as the study area, used soil moisture active and passive (SMAP) satellite soil moisture data, employed NDVI, LST, and ET as the independent variables, and took the drought grade on the sample as the dependent variable. Using the 2017–2019 data as the training set and the 2020 data as the testing set, a random forest drought monitoring model with comprehensive influence of multiple factors was constructed based on the training set data. In the process of model training, the cross-validation method was employed to establish and verify the model. This involved allocating 80% of the sample data for model construction and reserving 20% for model verification. The results demonstrated an 85% accuracy on the training set and an 87% accuracy on the testing set. Additionally, two drought events occurring during the winter wheat growing period in Henan Province were monitored, and the validity of these droughts was confirmed using on-site soil moisture and the vegetation supply water index (VSWI). The findings indicated a high incidence of agricultural drought in the southwestern part of Henan Province, while the central and northern regions experienced a lower incidence during the jointing to heading and filling stages. Subsequently, leveraging the results from the random forest drought monitoring, this study conducted a time series analysis using the Mann–Kendall test and a spatial analysis employing Moran's I index to examine the temporal and spatial distribution of agricultural drought in Henan Province. This analysis aimed to unveil trends in soil moisture changes affecting agricultural drought, as observed via the SMAP satellite (NASA). The results suggested a possible significant spatial auto-correlation in the occurrence of agricultural drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil moisture (SM) is a crucial environmental variable, and it plays an important role in energy and water cycles. SM data retrieval based on microwave satellite remote sensing has garnered significant attention due to its spatial continuity, wide observational coverage, and relatively low cost. Validating the accuracy of satellite remote sensing SM products is a critical step in enhancing data credibility, which plays a vital role in ensuring the effective application of satellite remote sensing data across various fields. Firstly, this study focused on Henan Province and evaluated the accuracy of the SMAP Enhanced L3 Radiometer Global and Polar Grid Daily 9 km EASE-Grid Soil Moisture (SPL3SMP_E) product along with its application in agriculture. The evaluation was based on in situ SM data from 55 stations in Henan Province. The assessment metrics used in this study include mean difference (MD), root mean square error (RMSE), unbiased root mean square error (ubRMSE), and the Pearson correlation coefficient (R). The time span of this study is from 2017 to 2020. The evaluation results indicated that the SPL3SMP_E soil moisture product performs well, as reflected by an ubRMSE value of 0.045 (m3/m3), which was relatively close to the product's design accuracy of 0.04 (m3/m3). Moreover, the accuracy of the product was unaffected by temporal factors, but the product exhibited strong spatial aggregation, which was closely related to land use types. Then, this study explored the response of the SPL3SMP_E product to irrigation signals. The precipitation and irrigation data from Henan Province were employed to investigate the response of the SPL3SMP_E soil moisture product to irrigation. Our findings revealed that the SPL3SMP_E soil moisture product was capable of capturing over 70% of irrigation events in the study area, indicating its high sensitivity to irrigation signals in this region. In this study, the SPL3SMP_E product was also employed for monitoring agricultural drought in Henan Province. The findings revealed that the collaborative use of the SPL3SMP_E soil moisture product and machine learning algorithms proves highly effective in monitoring significant drought events. Furthermore, the integration of multiple indices demonstrated a notable enhancement in the accuracy of drought monitoring. Such an evaluation holds significant implications for the effective application of satellite remote sensing SM data in agriculture and other domains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is a frequent global phenomenon. Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), an electromagnetic signal, has been proven to be an efficient tool for monitoring and assessing gross primary productivity (GPP) and drought. To address the issue of the sparse resolution of satellite-based SIF, researchers have developed different downscaling algorithms. Recently, the most frequently used SIF products had a spatial resolution of 0.05 degrees. However, these spatial resolution SIF data are not conducive to regional agricultural drought monitoring. In this study, we utilized the global 'OCO-2' solar-induced fluorescence (GOSIF) products along with normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land surface temperature (LST) products. With the powerful advantages offered by Google Earth Engine (GEE), we could conveniently acquire the necessary data. Additionally, employing the random forest (RF) method, we successfully acquired downscaled SIF data at an enhanced spatial resolution of 1 km. Using those downscaled SIF results with 1 km resolution, an SIF anomaly index was established and calculated to monitor drought. Results showed that the RF-based downscaled SIF result followed the same trend as the GOSIF value. Subsequently, correlation coefficients between SIF and GPP were calculated. The downscaled SIF demonstrated a higher correlation with GPP from MODIS compared to 0.05-degree GOSIF, with coefficients of 0.74 and 0.68 in May 2018, respectively. Moreover, the SIF anomaly index showed positive correlations with crop yield; the correlation coefficients were 0.93 for wheat and 0.89 for maize. The drought index had a negative correlation with areas affected by drought, with a correlation coefficient of −0.58. Finally, the SIF anomaly index was used to monitor drought from 2001 to 2020 in Henan Province. The 1 km SIF results obtained through the RF-based downscaled method were deemed reliable, thereby establishing the suitability of the SIF anomaly index for drought monitoring at a regional scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The percentage precipitation anomaly was used to index the effect of drought on winter wheat grown in Henan Province for the years 2011–2020. Of interest was the effect of drought on winter wheat yield and the accurate assessment of the damage done to winter wheat by drought events in order to improve the risk management of winter wheat in the context of drought hazards. The spatial and temporal variability of winter wheat drought risk in Henan Province was determined by analysis of climate data, winter wheat yield, cultivated area, and socio-economic data across three dimensions: exposure or susceptibility to drought, economic–environmental sensitivity to drought, and capacity to resist drought. A drought vulnerability assessment model, based on the entropy value method and a comprehensive fuzzy evaluation, was developed to assess the drought vulnerability of winter wheat in Henan Province compared with the percentage precipitation anomaly model. (1) There were significant spatial differences in the frequency of the five drought categories devised. (2) Areas in which there was a high frequency of mild drought events were mainly in northern and western Henan and southwestern Henan, with the frequency ranging from 17% to 29%. (3) Areas in which there was a high frequency of moderate drought events were mainly in northwestern, central, and southeastern Henan. (4) Areas in which there was a high frequency of severe and extreme drought were mainly in Anyang in northern Henan, Zhengzhou in central Henan, and Xinyang and surrounding areas in southern Henan, with the frequency ranging from 7% to 9.70%. (5) Winter wheat drought vulnerability shows an overall annually increasing trend. The susceptibility dimension had the greatest influence of the three dimensions, followed by economic–environmental sensitivity and then drought resistance, which had the least impact. The model created in this study shows the influence of drought on winter wheat production more intuitively than a conventional fuzzy synthesis, and the results can inform decision-making in winter wheat drought risk assessment and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought-induced risk has attracted the attention of many scholars, but the risk of combined events caused by drought and high-temperature heat waves still needs further study. Based on MODIS products and meteorological data, the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of summer drought and high-temperature heat waves in the North China Plain from 2000 to 2018 were analyzed by the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), crop water stress index (CWSI) and high-temperature threshold, and their combined-events risk was evaluated. The results showed that (1) from 2000 to 2018, summer drought in the North China Plain became more severe. Especially in Henan, Anhui and Jiangsu Provinces, drought increased significantly. (2) From 2000 to 2018, the frequency and intensity of high-temperature heat wave events in the North China Plain gradually increased at rates of 0.28 times/10 year and 1.6 °C/10 year, respectively. (3) The slightly high risk and high risk caused by summer drought were mainly distributed in Hebei Province and Tianjin Municipality in the north, and the risk change was characterized by a decrease in the north and an increase in the south. (4) The combined-events risk of summer drought and high-temperature heat waves did not increase significantly, with an increase rate of approximately 0.01/10 year. Among them, the increase rate of combined-events risk in Henan Province was the largest (0.14/10 year), followed by the obvious increase in northern Anhui, Jiangsu and southern Shandong, while the risk in Beijing showed a decreasing trend. The research results have scientific guiding significance for formulating disaster prevention and reduction strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has been shown to be a powerful proxy for photosynthesis and a promising indicator of drought monitoring, but the ability of high-resolution satellite-derived SIF for drought monitoring has not been widely investigated due to a lack of data. The lack of high spatiotemporal resolution satellite SIF hinders the resolution enhancement of SIF derived by downscaling or reconstruction algorithms. The TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) SIF provides an alternative with finer spatiotemporal resolution. We present an operational downscaling method to generate 500 m 16-day SIF (TSIF) using Neural Networks over a local spatiotemporal window. The results showed that our method is very robust against overfitting, and TSIF has a strong spatiotemporal consistency with TROPOMI SIF (TROPOSIF) with R 2 = 0.956 and RMSE = 0.054   mWm − 2 sr − 1 nm − 1 . Comparison with another SIF product (CASIF) showed a spatiotemporal consistency with TSIF. Comparison with tower gross primary productivity (GPP) from AmeriFlux in California showed a strong correlation with R 2 for multiple ecosystems ranging from 0.58 to 0.88. We explored the capacity of TSIF for monitoring a drought event in Henan, China, showing that TSIF is more sensitive to drought and precipitation compared to the Enhanced Vegetation Index. Our TSIF is a very promising indicator for regional drought monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]