1. Return Periods in Assessing Climate Change Risks: Uses and Misuses.
- Author
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Koliokosta, Efthymia
- Subjects
CLIMATE change ,HAZARD mitigation ,SEA level ,INDUCED seismicity ,STAKEHOLDERS - Abstract
Return periods (Ts) are used to estimate the interval of time between natural hazard occurrences of a certain size and assess the risks associated with hydrological occurrences, climate extremes, structural failures and seismicity. Despite Ts being widely used, they are characterized by strong misconceptions and ambiguities. Moreover, although they have been successfully used when discussing storm surges, high tides and extreme precipitation, concerns arise from their use in assessing probabilities of future global mean sea level rise (SLR). Most papers discuss SLR return periods considering storm surges or high tides and not SLR itself, as a separate and unique hazard. Sea level rise due to storm surges or tides is regional and temporary and differs from the global SLR, which is a long lasting and slow phenomenon. This paper discusses these misconceptions and misuses of return periods in assessing flood risk and the probability of sea level rise at the global level and suggests a method for assessing likelihoods of climate change risks that can be widely accepted and commonly used by all stakeholders and decision makers for all types of climate hazards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
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