Search

CO2 is one of the primary greenhouse gases impacting global climate change, making it crucial to understand the spatiotemporal variations of CO2. Currently, commonly used satellites serve as the primary means of CO2 observation, but they often suffer from striping issues and fail to achieve complete coverage. This paper proposes a method for constructing a comprehensive high-spatiotemporal-resolution XCO2 dataset based on multiple auxiliary data sources and satellite observations, utilizing multiple simple deep neural network (DNN) models. Global validation results against ground-based TCCON data demonstrate the excellent accuracy of the constructed XCO2 dataset (R is 0.94, RMSE is 0.98 ppm). Using this method, we analyze the spatiotemporal variations of CO2 in China and its surroundings (region: 0°–60° N, 70°–140° E) from 2019 to 2020. The gapless and fine-scale CO2 generation method enhances people's understanding of CO2 spatiotemporal variations, supporting carbon-related research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The anthropogenic climate crisis results in the gradual loss of tree species in locations where they were previously able to grow. This leads to increasing workloads and requirements for foresters and arborists as they are forced to restructure their forests and city parks. The advancements in computer vision (CV)—especially in supervised deep learning (DL)—can help cope with these new tasks. However, they rely on large, carefully annotated datasets to produce good and generalizable models. This paper presents BAMFORESTS: a dataset with 27,160 individually delineated tree crowns in 105 ha of very-high-resolution UAV imagery gathered with two different sensors from two drones. BAMFORESTS covers four areas of coniferous, mixed, and deciduous forests and city parks. The labels contain instance segmentations of individual trees, and the proposed splits are balanced by tree species and vitality. Furthermore, the dataset contains the corrected digital surface model (DSM), representing tree heights. BAMFORESTS is annotated in the COCO format and is especially suited for training deep neural networks (DNNs) to solve instance segmentation tasks. BAMFORESTS was created in the BaKIM project and is freely available under the CC BY 4.0 license. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water bodies can offer local microclimates that have the potential to attenuate the effects of urban heat islands by reducing local temperature. This capability is shaded when the river is channelized. In such cases, the river temperature rises during hot periods, leading to negative impacts on the water quality. The main aim of this paper is to develop a local simple model to predict the temperature of the Dâmbovița River at its exit from Bucharest City, the capital of Romania. The location is chosen based on the historical critical impacts, in terms of extreme heatwaves that took place during hot summers, as well as future possible risks due to climate change. The water temperature prediction model is based on an artificial neural network that uses the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm, due to its stability and rapid convergence capabilities. The model forecasts, with an accuracy of ±1 °C, the water temperature in an ungauged, downstream location, as a function of measured air and upstream water temperatures. The proposed model represents a first attempt to provide water managers in Bucharest City with a useful tool that will allow them to take timely measures to counteract the unwanted effects that can be generated by high water temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the continuous increase in global climate change and human activities, the risk of sudden debris flow disasters is becoming increasingly severe. In order to effectively evaluate and zone the potential hazards of debris flows, this paper proposes a method for zoning the potential sudden hazards of debris flows based on deep neural networks. According to hazard identification, ten risk indicators of potential sudden debris flows are determined. The risk indicators of a potential sudden debris flow in each region were used as the input factors of a deep trust network (DBN) composed of a back propagation (BP) neural network and a restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM). The DBN is pre-trained using the contrast divergence method to obtain the optimal value of the parameter set of the DBN model, and a BP network is set at the last layer of the DBN for fine-tuning to make the network optimal. Using the DBN model with the best parameters, the risk probability of debris flows corresponding to each region is taken as an output. The risk grade is divided, the risk degree of potential sudden debris flow in each region is analyzed, and the potential sudden debris flow risk in each region is divided individually. The results show that this method can effectively complete the risk zoning of sudden debris flow. Moreover, the cumulative contribution of the indicators selected by this method is significant, and the correlation of indicators is not significant, which can play a role in the risk assessment of potential sudden debris flow. This study not only provides new ideas and methods for risk assessment of sudden debris flow disasters, but also fills a gap in the field of geological hazard susceptibility mapping. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical evidence continues to show that climate change remains a threat to the stability of the hydrologic system. As the climate system interacts with the hydrologic cycle, one significant repercussion of global warming includes changes in water availability at both regional and local scales. Climate change adaptation is intrinsically difficult to attain due to the dynamic earth system and lack of a comprehensive understanding of future climate and its associated uncertainties. Mostly in developing countries, climate adaptation is hampered by scarcity of good quality and adequate hydro-meteorological data. This article provides a synopsis of the modelling chain applied to investigate the response of the hydrologic system under changing climate, which includes choosing the appropriate global climate models, downscaling techniques, emission scenarios, and the approach to be used in hydrologic modelling. The conventional criteria for choosing a suitable hydrological model are discussed. The advancement of emission scenarios including the latest Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their role in climate modelling, impact assessment, and adaptation, are also highlighted. This paper also discusses the uncertainties associated with modelling the hydrological impacts of climate change and the plausible approaches for reducing such uncertainties. Among the outcomes of this review include highlights of studies on the commonly used hydrological models for assessing the impact of climate change particularly in the sub-Saharan Africa region and some specific reviews in southern Africa. Further, the reviews show that as human systems keep on dominating within the earth system in several ways, effective modelling should involve coupling earth and human systems models as these may truly represent the bidirectional feedback experienced in the modern world. The paper concludes that adequate hydro-meteorological data is key to having a robust model and effective climate adaptation measures, hence in poorly gauged basins use of artificial neural networks and satellite datasets have shown to be successful tools, including for model calibration and validation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Confronted with the climate crisis, the world is making tremendous efforts in energy transition, such as expanding renewable energy that does not emit carbon. The importance of virtual power plant (VPP) operation technology has emerged to secure grid flexibility in response to the expanding renewable energy implemented due to these efforts. Accordingly, VPPs, which include photovoltaics, wind turbines, heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC), load, and EV, have been constructed. HVAC, one of the component resources, is a system that controls and regulates temperature, humidity, and airflow. Since it responds sensitively to the building's heat capacity and changes in the external environment, it requires continuous and stable control. In this paper, we used data-based modeling to implement the HVAC required for the optimal operation of VPP. Since accurately creating an equation-based HVAC model was difficult considering building information modeling and external environment variables, we used historical HVAC operation data to perform data-based modeling. The model was implemented using nonlinear regression and machine learning, such as a support vector machine and artificial neural network. Then, the data-based HVAC and the actual HVAC operation results were comparatively analyzed based on a case study, and the model's goodness-of-fit was evaluated based on performance metrics. Model performance indicators confirmed that the ANN-based HVAC model was most similar to the actual HVAC system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increase in the concentration of geological gas emissions in the atmosphere and particularly the increase of methane is considered by the majority of the scientific community as the main cause of global climate change. The main reasons that place methane at the center of interest, lie in its high global warming potential (GWP) and its lifetime in the atmosphere. Anthropogenic processes, like engineering geology ones, highly affect the daily profile of gasses in the atmosphere. Should direct measures be taken to reduce emissions of methane, immediate global warming mitigation could be achieved. Due to its significance, methane has been monitored by many space missions over the years and as of 2017 by the Sentinel-5P mission. Considering the above, we conclude that monitoring and predicting future methane concentration based on past data is of vital importance for the course of climate change over the next decades. To that end, we introduce a method exploiting state-of-the-art recurrent neural networks (RNNs), which have been proven particularly effective in regression problems, such as time-series forecasting. Aligned with the green artificial intelligence (AI) initiative, the paper at hand investigates the ability of different RNN architectures to predict future methane concentration in the most active regions of Texas, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, by using Sentinel-5P methane data and focusing on computational and complexity efficiency. We conduct several empirical studies and utilize the obtained results to conclude the most effective architecture for the specific use case, establishing a competitive prediction performance that reaches up to a 0.7578 mean squared error on the evaluation set. Yet, taking into consideration the overall efficiency of the investigated models, we conclude that the exploitation of RNN architectures with less number of layers and a restricted number of units, i.e., one recurrent layer with 8 neurons, is able to better compensate for competitive prediction performance, meanwhile sustaining lower computational complexity and execution time. Finally, we compare RNN models against deep neural networks along with the well-established support vector regression, clearly highlighting the supremacy of the recurrent ones, as well as discuss future extensions of the introduced work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wetlands are simply areas that are fully or partially saturated with water. Not much attention has been given to wetlands in the past, due to the unawareness of their value to the general public. However, wetlands have numerous hydrological, ecological, and social values. They play an important role in interactions among soil, water, plants, and animals. The rich biodiversity in the vicinity of wetlands makes them invaluable. Therefore, the conservation of wetlands is highly important in today's world. Many anthropogenic activities damage wetlands. Climate change has adversely impacted wetlands and their biodiversity. The shrinking of wetland areas and reducing wetland water levels can therefore be frequently seen. However, the opposite can be seen during stormy seasons. Since wetlands have permissible water levels, the prediction of wetland water levels is important. Flooding and many other severe environmental damage can happen when these water levels are exceeded. Therefore, the prediction of wetland water level is an important task to identify potential environmental damage. However, the monitoring of water levels in wetlands all over the world has been limited due to many difficulties. A Scopus-based search and a bibliometric analysis showcased the limited research work that has been carried out in the prediction of wetland water level using machine-learning techniques. Therefore, there is a clear need to assess what is available in the literature and then present it in a comprehensive review. Therefore, this review paper focuses on the state of the art of water-level prediction techniques of wetlands using machine-learning techniques. Nonlinear climatic parameters such as precipitation, evaporation, and inflows are some of the main factors deciding water levels; therefore, identifying the relationships between these parameters is complex. Therefore, machine-learning techniques are widely used to present nonlinear relationships and to predict water levels. The state-of-the-art literature summarizes that artificial neural networks (ANNs) are some of the most effective tools in wetland water-level prediction. This review can be effectively used in any future research work on wetland water-level prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural-language processing is well positioned to help stakeholders study the dynamics of ambiguous Climate Change-related (CC) information. Recently, deep neural networks have achieved good results on a variety of NLP tasks depending on high-quality training data and complex and exquisite frameworks. This raises two dilemmas: (1) the networks are highly reliant on powerful hardware devices and processing is time-consuming, which is not only inconducive to execution on edge devices but also leads to resource consumption. (2) Obtaining large-scale effective annotated data is difficult and laborious, especially when it comes to a special domain such as CC. In this paper, we propose a CC-domain-adapted BERT distillation and reinforcement ensemble (DARE) model for tackling the problems above. Specifically, we propose a novel data-augmentation strategy which is a Generator-Reinforced Selector collaboration network for countering the dilemma of CC-related data scarcity. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms baselines with a maximum of 26.83% on SoTA and 50.65× inference time speed-up. Furthermore, as a remedy for the lack of CC-related analysis in the NLP community, we also provide some interpretable conclusions for this global concern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea surface temperature (SST) is one of the most important parameters in air–sea interaction, and its accurate prediction is of great significance in the study of global climate change. However, SST is affected by heat flux, ocean dynamic processes, cloud coverage, and other factors, which means it contains linear and nonlinear components. Existing prediction models, especially single prediction models, cannot effectively handle these linear and nonlinear components in the meantime, degrading their accuracy concerning the prediction of SST. To remedy this weakness, this paper proposes a novel prediction model by the Lagrange multiplier method to combine the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the back propagation (BP) neural network model, where these two models have superior prediction performance for linear and nonlinear components, respectively. Moreover, the genetic algorithm is exploited to construct the genetic algorithm BP (GABP) neural network to further improve the performance of the proposed model. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed model, experiments predicting the SST based on historic time-series data are performed. The experiment results indicate that the mean absolute error (MAE) of the ARIMA-GABP model is only 0.3033 ° C and the root mean square error (RMSE) is 0.3970 ° C, which is better than the ARIMA model, BP neural network model, long short-term memory (LSTM) model, GABP neural network model, and ensemble empirical model decomposition BP model among various datasets. Therefore, the proposed model has superior and robust performance concerning predicting SST. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article compilation explores the use of artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and data analytics in marine, oceanic, and climate change monitoring. The featured applications cover a range of topics, including sea-surface temperature prediction, Sargassum detection, cloud classification, chlorophyll-a concentration modeling, oceanic light models, subsurface ocean temperature prediction, near-surface humidity monitoring, and sea-surface salinity correction. These advancements in AI and ML techniques have the potential to enhance our understanding and management of marine and climate dynamics. The article concludes by emphasizing the need for continued research and advancements in these areas. [Extracted from the article]

The Global Climate Model (GCM) run at a coarse spatial resolution cannot be directly used for climate impact studies. Downscaling is required to extract the sub-grid and local scale information. This paper investigates if the artificial neural network (ANN) is better than the widely-used regression-based statistical downscaling model (SDSM) for downscaling climate for a site in Colombo, Sri Lanka. Based on seasonal and annual model biases and the root mean squared error (RMSE), the ANN performed better than the SDSM for precipitation. This paper proposes a novel methodology for improving climate predictions by combining SDSM with neural networks. This method will allow a user to apply SDSM with a neural network model for higher skills in downscaling. The study uses the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, reanalysis from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and the Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) project data as the observation. SDSM and the focused time-delayed neural network (TDNN) models are used for the downscaling. The projected annual increase for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is 8.5; the average temperature is 2.83 °C (SDSM) and 3.03 °C (TDNN), and rainfall is 33% (SDSM) and 63% (TDNN) for 2080's. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the relatively low temporal resolutions of high spatial resolution (HR) remotely sensed images, land-cover change detection (LCCD) may have to use multi-temporal images with different resolutions. The low spatial resolution (LR) images often have high temporal repetition rates, but they contain a large number of mixed pixels, which may seriously limit their capability in change detection. Soft classification (SC) can produce the proportional fractions of land-covers, on which sub-pixel mapping (SPM) can construct fine resolution land-cover maps to reduce the low-spatial-resolution-problem to some extent. Thus, in this paper, sub-pixel land-cover change detection with the use of different resolution images (SLCCD_DR) is addressed based on SC and SPM. Previously, endmember combinations within pixels are ignored in the LR image, which may result in flawed fractional differences. Meanwhile, the information of a known HR land-cover map is insignificantly treated in the SPM models, which leads to a reluctant SLCCD_DR result. In order to overcome these issues, a novel approach based on a back propagation neural network (BPNN) with different resolution images (BPNN_DR) is proposed in this paper. Firstly, endmember variability per pixel is considered during the SC process to ensure the high accuracy of the derived proportional fractional difference image. After that, the BPNN-based SPM model is constructed by a complete supervised framework. It takes full advantage of the prior known HR image, whether it predates or postdates the LR image, to train the BPNN, so that a sub-pixel change detection map is generated effectively. The proposed BPNN_DR is compared with four state-of-the-art methods at different scale factors. The experimental results using both synthetic data and real images demonstrated that it can outperform with a more detailed change detection map being produced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of global warming and the increasing scarcity of fresh water resources, it becomes significant to evaluate the contribution and evolution of non-rainfall waters such as dew. This study therefore aims to evaluate the relative dew and rain contributions in three sites of south-western of Madagascar (Ifaty, Toliara, and Andremba), a semi-arid region which suffers from a strong water deficit. The studied period is 1/1991–7/2023, with extrapolation to 7/2033. Dew is calculated from meteo data by using a well-established energy model. The extrapolation of dew and rain follows an artificial neural network approach. It is found that dew forms regularly (2–3 days on average between events), in contrast to rain (10–15 days). The evolutions of dew and rain are similar, with an increase from 1991 to 2000, a decrease up to 2020 and a further increase until 2033. These oscillations follow the Indian Ocean dipole variations and should be influenced by climate change. Dew contributions to the water balance remain modest on a yearly basis (3–4%) but is important during the dry season (Apr.–Oct.), up to 30%. Dew therefore appears to be a reliable and sustainable resource for plants, small animals, and the population, especially during droughts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assessed the impacts of the land use/cover (LULC) and climate changes on the runoff and sediment flows in the Megech watershed. The Geospatial Water Erosion Prediction Project (GeoWEPP) was used to assess LULC and climate changes' impact on runoff, soil loss, and sediment yield. The QGIS 2.16.3 plugin module for land use change evaluation (MOLUSCE) tool with the cellular automata artificial neural network (CA-ANN) was used for LULC prediction based on historical data and exploratory maps. Two commonly used representative concentration pathways (RCPs)—4.5 and 8.5—were used for climate projection in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s. The LULC prediction analysis showed an expansion of cropland and settlement areas, with the reduction in the forest and rangelands. The climate projections indicated an increase in maximum temperatures and altered precipitation patterns, particularly with increased wet months and reduced dry periods. The average annual soil loss and sediment yield rates were estimated to increase under both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, with a more noticeable increase under RCP8.5. By integrating DEM, soil, land use, and climate data, we evaluated runoff, soil loss, and sediment yield changes on only land use/cover, only climate, and the combined impacts in the watershed. The results revealed that, under all combined scenarios, the sediment yield in the Megech Reservoir was projected to substantially increase by 23.28–41.01%, showing a potential loss of reservoir capacity. This study recommends strong climate adaptation and mitigation measures to alleviate the impact on land and water resources. It is possible to lessen the combined impacts of climate and LULC change through implementing best-management practices and adaptation strategies for the identified scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents the environmental mapping of the Chilika Lake coastal lagoon, India, using satellite images Landsat 8-9 OLI/TIRS processed using machine learning (ML) methods. The largest brackish water coastal lagoon in Asia, Chilika Lake, is a wetland of international importance included in the Ramsar site due to its rich biodiversity, productivity, and precious habitat for migrating birds and rare species. The vulnerable ecosystems of the Chilika Lagoon are subject to climate effects (monsoon effects) and anthropogenic activities (overexploitation through fishing and pollution by microplastics). Such environmental pressure results in the eutrophication of the lake, coastal erosion, fluctuations in size, and changes in land cover types in the surrounding landscapes. The habitat monitoring of the coastal lagoons is complex and difficult to implement with conventional Geographic Information System (GIS) methods. In particular, landscape variability, patch fragmentation, and landscape dynamics play a crucial role in environmental dynamics along the eastern coasts of the Bay of Bengal, which is strongly affected by the Indian monsoon system, which controls the precipitation pattern and ecosystem structure. To improve methods of environmental monitoring of coastal areas, this study employs the methods of ML and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), which present a powerful tool for computer vision, image classification, and analysis of Earth Observation (EO) data. Multispectral satellite data were processed by several ML image classification methods, including Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and the ANN-based MultiLayer Perceptron (MLP) Classifier. The results are compared and discussed. The ANN-based approach outperformed the other methods in terms of accuracy and precision of mapping. Ten land cover classes around the Chilika coastal lagoon were identified via spatio-temporal variations in land cover types from 2019 until 2024. This study provides ML-based maps implemented using Geographic Resources Analysis Support System (GRASS) GIS image analysis software and aims to support ML-based mapping approach of environmental processes over the Chilika Lake coastal lagoon, India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Buildings, energy, and the environment are key issues facing construction around the world. The energy efficiency of buildings is a key topic when it comes to reducing the world's energy consumption, releasing harmful gases, and global climate change, as they consume about 40% of the world's energy supplies. Heat losses in buildings reduce the energy performance of buildings and are basically important to them. In the paper, the authors focus on the main problems related to heat losses generated by chimney systems, which are inseparable equipment of building structures, resulting in lower energy efficiency and, at the same time, technical efficiency and durability of the building partitions themselves. Authors present thermal imaging with its contribution to the detection of heat losses, thermal bridges, insulation problems, and other performance disturbances, and then verifications using appropriate simulation models. The mathematical apparatus of artificial neural networks was implemented to predict the temperature distributions on the surfaces of prefabricated chimney solutions. In Europe, we can often find a large building substance equipped with traditional chimneys, which disrupts the current trend of striving to reduce energy consumption, especially that derived from fossil fuels. Speaking of energy-efficient buildings, one should not ignore those that, without additional security and modern installations, are constantly used in a very wide range. Therefore, the article deals with an essential problem that is not perceived in design studies and during the operation period as having a basis in incorrect architectural solutions and which can be easily eliminated. It concerns the cooling of internal partitions of buildings on their last storeys, in places where chimneys are located, regardless of their function. The authors of the paper decided to take a closer look at this phenomenon, which may allow the limiting of its effects and at the same time reduce its impact on the energy performance of technologically older buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modern engineering faces challenges in ensuring technical standards for service, durability, and sustainability. Political, administrative, and budgetary factors, coupled with climate change, pose tasks to structural integrity, affecting industries and economies. Marine infrastructures represent a strategic asset of a country as they handle a large part of the economic exchanges. This article analyzes five essential factors that play a fundamental role in the performance analysis of coastal structures: chloride-induced corrosion, degradation models, maintenance strategies, monitoring, and climate change. We start with reinforcement corrosion, which is considered as the main cause of distress, particularly in coastal zones, for the long-term behavior of structures. Additional pressure from the influences of climate change is becoming evident and extreme, leading to a reduction in capacity. To guarantee the lifespan of infrastructures, degradation models contribute by estimating the long-term performance of the asset as a strategic piece to the development of effective maintenance solutions. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have gained recent prominence in this field due to their ability to learn intricate patterns from historical data, making them valuable instruments for predicting structural deterioration. Additionally, quantifying the condition of the structure from monitoring data plays a crucial part in providing information on the current situation of the structure. Finally, this review summarizes the challenges associated with the maintenance of aging marine structures considering aspects such as corrosion, monitoring, and the future challenges this area will face due to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This document, titled "Predictions and Estimations in Agricultural Production under a Changing Climate," discusses the challenges that agriculture faces in the 21st century due to climate change. It emphasizes the importance of adapting agricultural practices to maintain profitability and food production. The document highlights various techniques, such as agroecology and precision farming, that can help mitigate the effects of climate change on agriculture. It also presents several research articles that explore prediction and estimation tools in agriculture, including predicting corn yield, rice cultivation, pest forecasting, and estimating the impact of climate change on crop yields. The document concludes that implementing these research methods can aid in the adaptation of agriculture to climate change. [Extracted from the article]

In this study, we analyzed in situ data from the years 2018–2022 encompassing entire forest plantations in Poland. Based on data regarding stand density and the occurrence of fungal, water-related, climate-related, fire, and insect factors that may intensify with climate changes, we determined the correlation between their occurrence and the decline in wood increments for six tree species: pine, birch, oak, spruce, beech, and alder. Subsequently, we identified age intervals in which the species–factor interaction exhibited statistically significant effects. Next, we developed neural network models for short-term wood increment predictions. Utilizing these models, we estimated a reduction in wood supply harvested in accordance with the plans for the years 2023–2025 assuming a tenfold greater intensity of factors than in 2022. Findings indicate: birch: water-related factors may reduce wood production by 0.1%–0.2%. This aligns with previous research linking drought to birch wood decline, highlighting its sensitivity to water-related issues. Oak: fungal and insect factors could decrease wood production by up to 0.1%. Prior studies emphasize the significant influence of fungal diseases on oak health and regeneration, as well as the impact of insect infestation on wood production. Alder: water-related factors may lead to a slight reduction in wood production, approximately 0.02%. The impact is significant within specific age ranges, indicating potential effects on harvesting. Pine: water- and climate-related factors may result in up to a 0.05% reduction in wood production. Pine, a key forest-forming species in Poland, is notably sensitive to these factors, especially as it nears harvesting age. Spruce: insects, fungi, and climate-related factors could lead to a reduction in wood production of up to 0.2%–0.3%. Analyses demonstrate sensitivity, resulting in a noticeable growth differential compared to the typical rate. Short-term predictions based on neural networks were developed, acknowledging their suitability for short-term forecasts due to uncertainties regarding long-term factor impacts. Additionally, our study discussed modeling wood increments in divisions well below the harvesting time, emphasizing that the influence of current and 2023–2025 factors on wood increments and supply may only manifest several decades from now. These results imply important indications for the economic and financial performance of the wood industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the concern about climate change and the associated negative impacts, fossil fuels continue to prevail in the global energy consumption. This paper aimed to propose the first model that relates CO2 emissions of Sao Paulo, the main urban center emitter in Brazil, with gross national product and energy consumption. Thus, we investigated the accuracy of three different methods: multivariate linear regression, elastic-net regression, and multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks. Comparing the results, we clearly demonstrated the superiority of artificial neural networks when compared with the other models. They presented better results of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE = 0.76%) and the highest possible coefficient of determination (R2 = 1.00). This investigation provides an innovative integrated climate-economic approach for the accurate prediction of carbon emissions. Therefore, it can be considered as a potential valuable decision-support tool for policymakers to design and implement effective environmental policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shallow groundwater is a key resource for human activities and ecosystems, and is susceptible to alterations caused by climate change, causing negative socio-economic and environmental impacts, and increasing the need to predict the evolution of the water table. The main objective of this study is to gain insights about future water level changes based on different climate change scenarios using machine learning algorithms, while addressing the following research questions: (a) how will the water table be affected by climate change in the future based on different socio-economic pathways (SSPs)?: (b) do machine learning models perform well enough in predicting changes of the groundwater in Denmark? If so, which ML model outperforms for forecasting these changes? Three ML algorithms were used in R: artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF). The ML models were trained with time-series data of groundwater levels taken at wells in the Hovedstaden region, for the period 1990–2018. Several independent variables were used to train the models, including different soil parameters, topographical features and climatic variables for the time period and region selected. Results show that the RF model outperformed the other two, resulting in a higher R-squared and lower mean absolute error (MAE). The future prediction maps for the different scenarios show little variation in the water table. Nevertheless, predictions show that it will rise slightly, mostly in the order of 0–0.25 m, especially during winter. The proposed approach in this study can be used to visualize areas where the water levels are expected to change, as well as to gain insights about how big the changes will be. The approaches and models developed with this paper could be replicated and applied to other study areas, allowing for the possibility to extend this model to a national level, improving the prevention and adaptation plans in Denmark and providing a more global overview of future water level predictions to more efficiently handle future climate change scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The exacerbation of wildfires, attributed to the effects of climate change, presents substantial risks to ecological systems, infrastructure, and human well-being. In the context of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those related to climate action, prioritizing the assessment and management of the occurrence and intensity of extensive wildfires is of utmost importance. In recent times, there has been a significant increase in the frequency and severity of widespread wildfires worldwide, affecting several locations, including Australia, Italy, and the United States of America. The presence of complex phenomena marked by limited predictability leads to significant negative impacts on biodiversity and human lives. The utilization of satellite-derived data with neural networks, such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs), is a potentially advantageous approach for augmenting the monitoring capabilities of wildfires. This research examines the generalization capability of four neural network models, namely the fully connected (FC), one-dimensional (1D) CNN, two-dimensional (2D) CNN, and three-dimensional (3D) CNN model. Each model's performance, as measured by accuracy, recall, and F1 scores, is assessed through K-fold cross-validation. Subsequently, T-statistics and p-values are computed based on these metrics to conduct a statistical comparison among the different models, allowing us to quantify the degree of similarity or dissimilarity between them. By using training data from Australia and Sicily, the performances of the trained model are evaluated on the test dataset from Oregon. The results are promising, with cross-validation on the training dataset producing mean precision, recall, and F1 scores ranging between approximately 0.97 and 0.98. Especially, the fully connected model has superior generalization capabilities, whilst the 3D CNN offers more refined and less distorted classifications. However, certain issues, such as false fire detection and confusion between smoke and shadows, persist. The aforementioned methodologies offer significant perspectives on the capabilities of neural network technologies in supporting the detection and management of wildfires. These approaches address the crucial matter of domain transferability and the associated dependability of predictions in new regions. This study makes a valuable contribution to the ongoing efforts in climate change by assisting in monitoring and managing wildfires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meteorological elements can affect the environment and cultures differently and may alter the natural development process contributing significantly to climate change. Meteorological variables of the Brazilian Pantanal were studied and used to determine evapotranspiration with fewer variables. It was found that artificial intelligence can substantially improve environmental modeling when alternative prediction techniques are used, resulting in lower project costs and more reliable results. This work tried to find the best combination by comparing machine learning techniques such as artificial neural networks, random forests, and support vector machines. A new model was created that depends on fewer climatic variables compared to the Penman–Monteith method (the standard method for estimating reference evapotranspiration) and can efficiently describe the reference evapotranspiration. Machine learning techniques are highly efficient for modeling environmental systems since they can process large amounts of data and find the best interactions between the parameters involved. In addition, more than 98% accuracy was obtained using fewer variables compared to the standard method when artificial neural networks are utilized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our understanding of the time variability of intense cyclones in the Mediterranean region is still lacking despite its importance for the long-term forecast of climate anomalies. This study examines the month-to-month variability and predictability of cyclones, the intensity of which exceeded the 75th percentile (intense cyclones) and the 95th percentile (extreme cyclones), over the Western and Eastern Mediterranean. The locations of cyclones were obtained by applying the method of M. Yu. Bardin on the 6-hourly 1000 hPa geopotential height data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the period 1951–2017 (67 years). It was shown that annual frequencies of cyclones were higher in the Western Mediterranean due to the contribution of spring and autumn; monthly averages were higher in the Eastern Mediterranean in December/January–March for intense/extreme cyclones. In the context of global warming, no linear trends significant at the 90% confidence level were found in the variability of intense and extreme cyclones, except for a positive trend in autumn extreme cyclones over the Eastern Mediterranean. The time series of cyclones in both parts of the Mediterranean were characterized by a pronounced interannual variability with a noticeable decadal modulation. According to spectral analysis, these interannual periods were multiples of 2–3 years corresponding to the main global teleconnection patterns. Seasonally, the most energy was concentrated in winter spectra; spring and autumn spectra had lower comparable magnitudes. The correlation analysis between the frequency of cyclones and the indices of the main atmospheric patterns showed that the main synchronous patterns for intense and extreme Mediterranean cyclones in September–April were the Mediterranean Oscillation (with the opposite signs for the Western and Eastern Mediterranean), Scandinavia pattern (positive correlation), and East Atlantic Oscillation (negative correlation). Additional important synchronous teleconnection patterns for some months were the Arctic Oscillation and East Atlantic/West Russia pattern for the Western Mediterranean, and the Polar/Eurasia pattern and Tropical Northern Hemisphere pattern for the Eastern Mediterranean. The outcome of this paper was the use of an artificial neural network model with inputs of global teleconnection indices both in the atmosphere and ocean to describe the temporal variability of the frequency of intense cyclones in the Western and Eastern Mediterranean. The predictability of intense cyclones was shown with the possibility of forecasts with a lead time of 0, 2, 4, and 6 months for the Western Mediterranean in October, January, February, April, and May, and for the Eastern Mediterranean in January, February, March, April, and May. One of the applications of this model may be in forecasting the evolution of the monthly frequency of cyclones with a lead time of 2 to 6 months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate information on urban surface water is important for assessing the role it plays in urban ecosystem services in the context of human survival and climate change. The precise extraction of urban water bodies from images is of great significance for urban planning and socioeconomic development. In this paper, a novel deep-learning architecture is proposed for the extraction of urban water bodies from high-resolution remote sensing (HRRS) imagery. First, an adaptive simple linear iterative clustering algorithm is applied for segmentation of the remote-sensing image into high-quality superpixels. Then, a new convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture is designed that can extract useful high-level features of water bodies from input data in a complex urban background and mark the superpixel as one of two classes: an including water or no-water pixel. Finally, a high-resolution image of water-extracted superpixels is generated. Experimental results show that the proposed method achieved higher accuracy for water extraction from the high-resolution remote-sensing images than traditional approaches, and the average overall accuracy is 99.14%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal of this study is to detect linear and nonlinear causal pathways toward climate change as measured by changes in global mean surface temperature and global mean sea level over time using a data-based approach in contrast to the traditional physics-based models. Monthly data on potential climate change causal factors, including greenhouse gas concentrations, sunspot numbers, humidity, ice sheets mass, and sea ice coverage, from January 2003 to December 2021, have been utilized in the analysis. We first applied the vector autoregressive model (VAR) and Granger causality test to gauge the linear Granger causal relationships among climate factors. We then adopted the vector error correction model (VECM) as well as the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) to quantify the linear long-run equilibrium and the linear short-term dynamics. Cointegration analysis has also been adopted to examine the dual directional Granger causalities. Furthermore, in this work, we have presented a novel pipeline based on the artificial neural network (ANN) and the VAR and ARDL models to detect nonlinear causal relationships embedded in the data. The results in this study indicate that the global sea level rise is affected by changes in ice sheet mass (both linearly and nonlinearly), global mean temperature (nonlinearly), and the extent of sea ice coverage (nonlinearly and weakly); whereas the global mean temperature is affected by the global surface mean specific humidity (both linearly and nonlinearly), greenhouse gas concentration as measured by the global warming potential (both linearly and nonlinearly) and the sunspot number (only nonlinearly and weakly). Furthermore, the nonlinear neural network models tend to fit the data closer than the linear models as expected due to the increased parameter dimension of the neural network models. Given that the information criteria are not generally applicable to the comparison of neural network models and statistical time series models, our next step is to examine the robustness and compare the forecast accuracy of these two models using the soon-available 2022 monthly data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has a significant impact on the abiotic and biotic environment. An increase in air temperatures translates into higher temperatures of water constituting the habitat of a wide range of species. The purpose of this study is to present the direction and extent of water temperature increases in eight rivers and three lakes on a monthly and annual basis. The analysis of river water temperatures used both measured data and data reconstructed using artificial neural networks from the period of 1984–2020. The analysis of the direction and extent of changes in air and water temperatures was performed using Mann-Kandall tests and a modified Sen test. The analysis of water temperature changes was conducted against the background of climatic conditions and catchment characteristics. The results indicate that in the Warta River basin in the period of 1984–2020, the average annual temperature rise reached 0.51 °C decade−1, ranging from 0.43 to 0.61 °C decade−1. This translated into an increase in mean annual water temperatures in lakes in a range from 0.14 to 0.58 °C decade−1, and for rivers in a range from 0.10 to 0.54 °C decade−1. The greatest changes in air temperature occurred in April, June, August, September, and November. It was reflected in an increase in water temperature in lakes and rivers. However, these changes did not occur in all rivers and lakes, suggesting the role of local factors that modify the effect of climate change. The study showed that the extent of air temperature changes was significantly higher than the extent of water temperature changes in rivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has significant effects on forest ecosystems around the world. Since tree diameter increment determines forest volume increment and ultimately forest production, an accurate estimate of this variable under future climate change is of great importance for sustainable forest management. In this study, we modeled tree diameter increment under the effects of current and expected future climate change, using multilayer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural networks and linear mixed-effect model in two sites of the Hyrcanian Forest, northern Iran. Using 573 monitoring fixed-area (0.1 ha) plots, we measured and calculated biotic and abiotic factors (i.e., diameter at breast height (DBH), basal area in the largest trees (BAL), basal area (BA), elevation, aspect, slope, precipitation, and temperature). We investigated the effect of climate change in the year 2070 under two reference scenarios; RCP 4.5 (an intermediate scenario) and RCP 8.5 (an extreme scenario) due to the uncertainty caused by the general circulation models. According to the scenarios of climate change, the amount of annual precipitation and temperature during the study period will increase by 12.18 mm and 1.77 °C, respectively. Further, the results showed that the impact of predicted climate change was not very noticeable and the growth at the end of the period decreased by only about 7% annually. The effect of precipitation and temperature on the growth rate, in fact, neutralize each other, and therefore, the growth rate does not change significantly at the end of the period compared to the beginning. Based on the models' predictions, the MLP model performed better compared to the linear mixed-effect model in predicting tree diameter increment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Florida Bay is a large, subtropical estuary whose salinity varies from yearly and seasonal changes in rainfall and freshwater inflows. Water management changes during the 20th century led to a long-term reduction in inflows that increased mean salinity, and the frequency and severity of hypersalinity. Climate change may exacerbate salinity conditions in Florida Bay; however, future salinity conditions have not been adequately evaluated. Here, we employed a Multilayer Feedforward Artificial Neural Network model to develop baseline salinity models for nearshore and offshore sites. Then, we examined the impacts of climate change on salinity using forecasted changes in various input variables under two climate change scenarios, representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. Salinity could rise by 30% and 70% under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forecasts, respectively. Climate change affected nearshore salinity significantly more, which rapidly fluctuated between mesohaline (5 to 18 PSU) and metahaline (40 to 55 PSU) to hypersaline conditions (>55 PSU). Offshore salinities ranged between euhaline (30 to 40 PSU) to metahaline (40 to 55 PSU) conditions. Our study suggests that increased freshwater flow would help maintain suitable estuarine conditions in Florida Bay during climate change, while our novel modeling approach can guide further Everglades restoration efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effective estimation of mixed-layer depth (MLD) plays a significant role in the study of ocean dynamics and global climate change. However, the methods of estimating MLD still have limitations due to the sparse resolution of the observed data. In this study, a hybrid estimation method that combines the K-means clustering algorithm and an artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed using sea-surface parameter data in the Indian Ocean as a case study. The oceanic datasets from January 2012 to December 2019 were obtained via satellite observations, Argo in situ data, and reanalysis data. These datasets were unified to the same spatial and temporal resolution (1° × 1°, monthly). Based on the processed datasets, the K-means classifier was applied to divide the Indian Ocean into four regions with different characteristics. For ANN training and testing in each region, the gridded data of 84 months were used for training, and 12-month data were used for testing. The ANN results show that the optimized NN architecture comprises five input variables, one output variable, and four hidden layers, each of which has 40 neurons. Compared with the multiple linear regression model (MLR) with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 5.2248 m and the HYbrid-Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) with an RMSE of 4.8422 m, the RMSE of the model proposed in this study was reduced by 27% and 22%, respectively. Three typical regions with high variability in their MLDs were selected to further evaluate the performance of the ANN model. Our results showed that the model could reveal the seasonal variation trend in each of the selected regions, but the estimation accuracy showed room for improvement. Furthermore, a correlation analysis between the MLD and input variables showed that the surface temperature and salinity were the main influencing factors of the model. The results of this study suggest that the pre-clustering ANN method proposed could be used to estimate and analyze the MLD in the Indian Ocean. Moreover, this method can be further expanded to estimate other internal parameters for typical ocean regions and to provide effective technical support for ocean researchers when studying the variability of these parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Progressive climate changes are the most important challenges for modern agriculture. Permanent grassland represents around 70% of all agricultural land. In comparison with other agroecosystems, grasslands are more sensitive to climate change. The aim of this study was to create deterministic models based on artificial neural networks to identify highly significant factors influencing the yield and digestibility of grassland sward in the climatic conditions of central Poland. The models were based on data from a grassland experiment conducted between 2014 and 2016. Phytophenological data (harvest date and botanical composition of sward) and meteorological data (average temperatures, total rainfall, and total effective temperatures) were used as independent variables, whereas qualitative and quantitative parameters of the feed made from the grassland sward (dry matter digestibility, dry matter yield, and protein yield) were used as dependent variables. Nine deterministic models were proposed Y_G, DIG_G, P_G, Y_GB, DIG_GB, P_GB, Y_GC, DIG_GC, and P_GC, which differed in the input variable and the main factor from the grassland experiment. The analysis of the sensitivity of the neural networks in the models enabled the identification of the independent variables with the greatest influence on the yield of dry matter and protein as well as the digestibility of the dry matter of the first regrowth of grassland sward, taking its diverse botanical composition into account. The results showed that the following factors were the most significant (rank 1): the average daily air temperature, total rainfall, and the percentage of legume plants. This research will be continued on a larger group of factors influencing the output variables and it will involve an attempt to optimise these factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short-term solar irradiance forecasting (STSIF) is of great significance for the optimal operation and power predication of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) plants. However, STSIF is very complex to handle due to the random and nonlinear characteristics of solar irradiance under changeable weather conditions. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is suitable for STSIF modeling and many research works on this topic are presented, but the conciseness and robustness of the existing models still need to be improved. After discussing the relation between weather variations and irradiance, the characteristics of the statistical feature parameters of irradiance under different weather conditions are figured out. A novel ANN model using statistical feature parameters (ANN-SFP) for STSIF is proposed in this paper. The input vector is reconstructed with several statistical feature parameters of irradiance and ambient temperature. Thus sufficient information can be effectively extracted from relatively few inputs and the model complexity is reduced. The model structure is determined by cross-validation (CV), and the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm (LMA) is used for the network training. Simulations are carried out to validate and compare the proposed model with the conventional ANN model using historical data series (ANN-HDS), and the results indicated that the forecast accuracy is obviously improved under variable weather conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfires in Mediterranean regions have become a serious problem, and it is currently the main cause of forest loss. Numerous prediction methods have been applied worldwide to estimate future fire activity and area burned in order to provide a stable basis for future allocation of fire-fighting resources. The present study investigated the performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) in burned area size prediction and to assess the evolution of future wildfires and the area concerned under climate change in southern Spain. The study area comprised 39.41 km2 of land burned from 2000 to 2014. ANNs were used in two subsequential phases: classifying the size of the wildfires and predicting the burned surface for fires larger than 30,000 m2. Matrix of confusion and 10-fold cross-validations were used to evaluate ANN classification and mean absolute deviation, root mean square error, mean absolute percent error and bias, which were the metrics used for burned area prediction. The success rate achieved was above 60–70% depending on the zone. An average temperature increase of 3 °C and a 20% increase in wind speed during 2071–2100 results in a significant increase of the number of fires, up to triple the current figure, resulting in seven times the average yearly burned surface depending on the zone and the climate change scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Featured Application: The methodology developed in this research has direct application in understanding European initiatives and policies for adaptation to climate change through the identification of differentiated strategic adaptation frameworks. The European Union (EU) has assigned municipal governments a key role in the transformations needed to achieve its climate and energy objectives. One of the main initiatives of the EU has been the "The Covenant of Mayors", launched in 2008, with impacts beyond Europe due to integration with the "Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy". This research focuses on local measures to adapt to climate change, verifying their differences between themselves, and aims to identify and characterize patterns in the different adaptation strategies examined. Further aims are (i) the collection of good practices, framed in the Mayors Adapt initiative, managing multidimensional data from the context and from its adaptation proposals; (ii) the classification of strategies in profiles and patterns using artificial neural networks based on the previous variables; (iii) the characterization and comparison of such profiles. The results substantiate the existence of several well-differentiated approaches, connected with their geographical context, vulnerability and politics. These results provide valuable information for its interpretation and for the planning of climate change adaptation actions, highlighting the value of the creation of networks of institutional collaboration targeted at each strategic framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite-derived estimates of precipitation are essential to compensate for missing rainfall measurements in regions where the homogeneous and continuous monitoring of rainfall remains challenging due to low density rain gauge networks. The Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) is a relatively new product (released in 2013) but that contains data since 1983, thus enabling long-term rainfall analysis. In this work, we used three decades (1983-2014) of PERSIANN-CDR daily rainfall data to characterize precipitation patterns in the southern part of the Amazon basin, which has been drastically impacted in recent decades by anthropogenic activities that exacerbate the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall regimes. We computed metrics for the rainy season (onset date, demise date and duration) on a pixel-to-pixel basis for each year in the time series. We identified significant trends toward a shortening of the rainy season in the southern Amazon, mainly linked to earlier demise dates. This work thus contributes to monitoring possible signs of climate change in the region and to assessing uncertainties in rainfall trends and their potential impacts on human activities and natural ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The assessment of the impacts of climate change on hydrology is important for better water resources management. However, few studies have been conducted in semi-arid Africa, even less in Madagascar. Here we report, climate-induced future hydrological prediction in Mangoky river, Madagascar using an artificial neural network (ANN) and the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). The current study downscaled two global climate models on the mid-term, noted the 2040s (2041–2050) and long-term, noted 2090s (2091–2099) under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios, SSP 3–7.0 and SSP 5–8.5. Statistical indices of both ANN and SWAT showed good performance (R2 > 0.65) of the models. Our results revealed a rise in maximum temperature (4.26–4.69 °C) and minimum temperature (2.74–3.01 °C) in the 2040s and 2090s. Under SSP 3–7.0 and SSP 5–8.5, a decline in the annual precipitation is projected in the 2040s and increased the 2090s. This study found that future precipitation and temperature could significantly decrease annual runoff by 60.59% and 73.77% in the 2040s; and 25.18% and 23.45% in the 2090s under SSP 3–7.0 and SSP 5–8.5, respectively. Our findings could be useful for the adaptation to climate change, managing water resources, and water engineering. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The world's economic development depends on access to cheap energy sources. So far, energy has been obtained mainly from conventional sources like coal, gas and oil. Negative climate changes related to the high emissions of the economy based on the combustion of hydrocarbons and the growing public awareness have made it necessary to look for new ecological energy sources. This condition can be met by renewable energy sources. Both social pressure and international activities force changes in the structure of sources from which energy is produced. This also applies to the European Union countries, including Poland. There are no scientific studies in the area of forecasting energy production from renewable energy sources for Poland. Therefore, it is reasonable to investigate this subject since such a forecast can have a significant impact on investment decisions in the energy sector. At the same time, it must be as reliable as possible. That is why a modern method was used for this purpose, which undoubtedly involves artificial neural networks. The following article presents the results of the analysis of energy production from renewable energy sources in Poland and the forecasts for this production until 2025. Artificial neural networks were used to make the forecast. The analysis covered eight main sources from which this energy is produced in Poland. Based on the production volume since 1990, predicted volumes of renewable energy sources until 2025 were determined. These forecasts were prepared for all studied renewable energy sources. Renewable energy production plans and their share in total energy consumption in Poland were also examined and included in climate plans. The research was carried out using artificial neural networks. The results should be an important source of information on the effects of implementing climate policies in Poland. They should also be utilized to develop action plans to achieve the objectives of the European Green Deal strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation coverage variation may influence watershed water balance and water resource availability. Yarlung Zangbo River, the longest river on the Tibetan Plateau, has high spatial heterogeneity in vegetation coverage and is the main freshwater resource of local residents and downstream countries. In this study, we proposed a model based on random forest (RF) to predict the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin and explore its relationship with climatic factors. High-resolution datasets of NDVI and monthly meteorological observation data from 2000 to 2015 were used to calibrate and validate the proposed model. The proposed model was then compared with artificial neural network and support vector machine models, and principal component analysis and partial correlation analysis were also used for predictor selection of artificial neural network and support vector machine models for comparative study. The results show that RF had the highest model efficiency among the compared models. The Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients of the proposed model in the calibration period and verification period were all higher than 0.8 for the five subzones; this indicated that the proposed model can successfully simulate the relationship between the NDVI and climatic factors. By using built-in variable importance evaluation, RF chose appropriate predictor combinations without principle component analysis or partial correlation analysis. Our research is valuable because it can be integrated into water resource management and elucidates ecological processes in Yarlung Zangbo River Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change could have dire effects on hydropower systems, especially in southwest China, where hydropower dominates the regional power system. This study examines two large cascade hydropower systems in Yunnan province in southwest China for 10 climate change projections made with 5 global climate models (GCMs) and 2 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). First, a back propagation neural network rain-runoff model is built for each hydropower station to estimate inflows with climate change. Then, a progressive optimality algorithm maximizes hydropower generation for each projection. The results show generation increasing in each GCM projection, but increasing more in GCMs under scenario RCP8.5. However, yearly generation fluctuates more: generation decreases dramatically with potential for electricity shortages in dry years and more electricity as well as spill during wet years. Average annual spill, average annual inflow and average storage have similar trends. The analysis indicates that a planned large dam on the upper Jinsha River would increase seasonal regulation ability, increase hydropower generation, and decrease spill. Increased turbine capacity increases generation slightly and decreases spill for the Lancang River. Results from this study demonstrate effects of climate change on hydropower systems and identify which watersheds might be more vulnerable, along with some actions that could help adapt to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change can cause serious problems for future hydropower plant projects and make them less economically justified. Changing precipitation patterns, rising temperatures, and abrupt snow melting affect river stream patterns and hydropower generation. Thus, study of climate change impacts during the useful life of a hydropower dam is essential and its outcome should be considered in assessing long-term dam feasibility. The aim of this research is to evaluate the impacts of climate change on future hydropower generation in the Karun-III dam located in the southwest region of Iran in two future tri-decadal periods: near (2020–2049) and far (2070–2099). Had-CM3 general circulation model predictions under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios were applied, and downscaled by a statistical downscaling model (SDSM). An artificial neural network (ANN) and HEC-ResSim reservoir model respectively simulated the rainfall–runoff process and hydropower generation. The projections showed that the Karun-III dam catchment under the two scenarios will generally become warmer and wetter with a slightly larger increase in annual precipitation in the near than the far future. Runoff followed the precipitation trend by increasing in both periods. The runoff peak also switched from April to March in both scenarios, due to higher winter precipitation, and earlier snowmelt, which was caused by temperature rise. According to both scenarios, hydropower generation increased more in the near future than in the far future. Annual average power generation increased gradually by 26.7–40.5% under A2 and by 17.4–29.3% under B2 in 2020–2049. In the far period, average power generation increased by 1.8–8.7% in A2 and by 10.5–22% under B2. In the near future, A2 showed energy deduction in the months of June and July, while B2 revealed a decrease in the months of April and June. Additionally, projections in the 2070–2099 under A2 exhibited energy reduction in the months of March through July, while B2 revealed a decrease in April through July. The framework utilized in this study can be exploited to analyze the susceptibility of hydropower production in the long term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study developed a methodological framework to update the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves under climate change scenarios. A model output statistics (MOS) method is used to downscale the daily rainfall of general circulation models (GCMs), and an artificial neural network (ANN) is employed for the disaggregation of projected daily rainfall to hourly maximum rainfall, which is then used for the development of IDF curves. Finally, the 1st quartiles, medians, and 3rd quartiles of projected rainfall intensities are estimated for developing IDF curves with uncertainty level. Eight GCM simulations under two radiative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, namely, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, are used in the proposed framework for the projection of IDF curves with related uncertainties for peninsular Malaysia. The projection of rainfall revealed an increase in the annual average rainfall throughout the present century. The comparison of the projected IDF curves for the period 2006–2099 with that obtained using GCM hindcasts for the based period (1971–2005) revealed an increase in rainfall intensity for shorter durations and a decrease for longer durations. The uncertainty in rainfall intensity for different return periods for shorter duration is found to be 2 to 6 times more compared to longer duration rainfall, which indicates that a large increase in rainfall intensity for short durations projected by GCMs is highly uncertain for peninsular Malaysia. The IDF curves developed in this study can be used for the planning of climate resilient urban water storm water management infrastructure in Peninsular Malaysia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study develops a late spring-early summer rainfall forecasting model using an artificial neural network (ANN) for the Geum River Basin in South Korea. After identifying the lagged correlation between climate indices and the rainfall amount in May and June, 11 significant input variables were selected for the preliminary ANN structure. From quantification of the relative importance of the input variables, the lagged climate indices of East Atlantic Pattern (EA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), East Pacific/North Pacific Oscillation (EP/NP), and Tropical Northern Atlantic Index (TNA) were identified as significant predictors and were used to construct a much simpler ANN model. The final best ANN model, with five input variables, showed acceptable performance with relative root mean square errors of 25.84%, 32.72%, and 34.75% for training, validation, and testing data sets, respectively. The hit score, which is the number of hit years divided by the total number of years, was more than 60%, which indicates that the ANN model successfully predicts rainfall in the study area. The developed ANN model, incorporated with lagged global climate indices, could allow for more timely and flexible management of water resources and better preparation against potential droughts in the study region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future predictions of rainfall patterns in water-scarce regions are highly important for effective water resource management. Global circulation models (GCMs) are commonly used to make such predictions, but these models are highly complex and expensive. Furthermore, their results are associated with uncertainties and variations for different GCMs for various greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Data-driven models including artificial neural networks (ANNs) and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference systems (ANFISs) can be used to predict long-term future changes in rainfall and temperature, which is a challenging task and has limitations including the impact of greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Therefore, in this research, results from various GCMs and data-driven models were investigated to study the changes in temperature and rainfall of the Qassim region in Saudi Arabia. Thirty years of monthly climatic data were used for trend analysis using Mann–Kendall test and simulating the changes in temperature and rainfall using three GCMs (namely, HADCM3, INCM3, and MPEH5) for the A1B, A2, and B1 emissions scenarios as well as two data-driven models (ANN: feed-forward-multilayer, perceptron and ANFIS) without the impact of any emissions scenario. The results of the GCM were downscaled for the Qassim region using the Long Ashton Research Station's Weather Generator 5.5. The coefficient of determination (R2) and Akaike's information criterion (AIC) were used to compare the performance of the models. Results showed that the ANNs could outperform the ANFIS for predicting long-term future temperature and rainfall with acceptable accuracy. All nine GCM predictions (three models with three emissions scenarios) differed significantly from one another. Overall, the future predictions showed that the temperatures of the Qassim region will increase with a specified pattern from 2011 to 2099, whereas the changes in rainfall will differ over various spans of the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]