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The Tarim Basin is a large inland arid basin in the arid region of northwest China and has been experiencing significant "warming and wetting" since 1987. As a result, the purpose of this paper is to determine whether the climate transition phenomenon occurred in the Tarim Basin as well as the role of atmospheric circulation in this process. We use meteorological data and atmospheric circulation indexes to study the seasonal trends of climate change in this region from 1987 to 2020 to understand how they are affected by atmospheric circulation. The findings show that, from 1987 to 2020, the Tarim Basin experienced significant warming and wetting; with the exception of the winter scale, all other seasonal scales exhibited a clear warming and wetting trend. From the perspective of spatial distribution, most of the areas showed a significant warming trend, and the warming amplitude around the basin is greater than that in the central area of the basin. However, there are significant regional differences in precipitation change rates. Meanwhile, wavelet analysis shows that there is a significant oscillation period of 17–20 years between climate change and the atmospheric circulation index during 1987–2020. The correlation analysis shows that the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are the main influencing factors of climate change in the Tarim Basin at different seasonal scales, while the teleconnection of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is low and the PDO dominates the summer and autumn temperature changes in the Tarim Basin. The research results of this paper show that, despite the warming and wetting trends since 1987 in the Tarim Basin, the climate type did not change. From 1987 to 2020, the main teleconnection factors of climate change in the Tarim Basin were PDO and ENSO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The net primary productivity (NPP) of vegetation is an important indicator reflecting the vegetation dynamics and carbon sequestration capacity in a region. In recent years, China has implemented policies to carry out ecological protection. To understand the changes in the distribution of vegetation NPP in China and the influence of climate factors, the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford approach (CASA) model was used to estimate the NPP from 2001 to 2020. In this paper, several sets of measurement datasets and products were collected to evaluate the effectiveness of the model and suggestions were provided for the modification of the CASA model based on the evaluation results. In addition to the correlation analysis, this paper presents a statistical method for analyzing the quantitative effects in individual climatic factors on NPP changes in large regions. The comparison found that the model has a better estimation effect on grassland and needleleaf forest. The estimation error for the evergreen needleleaf forest (ENF) and deciduous broadleaf forest (DBF) decreases with the warming of the climatic zone, while the evergreen broadleaf forest (EBF) and deciduous needleleaf forest (DNF) do the opposite. The changes in total CASA NPP were consistent with the trends of other products, showing a dynamic increasing trend. In terms of the degree of correlation between the NPP changes and climatic factors, the NPP changes were significantly correlated with temperature in about 10.39% of the vegetation cover area and with precipitation in about 26.92% of the vegetation cover area. It was found that the NPP variation had a negative response to the temperature variation in Inner Mongolia grasslands, while it had a positive but small effect (±10 g C) in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau grasslands. Precipitation had a facilitative effect on the grassland NPP variation, while an increase in the annual precipitation of more than 200 mm had an inhibitory effect in arid and semi-arid regions. This study can provide data and methodological reference for the ecological assessment of large-scale regional and climate anomalous environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of global warming, snow cover changes have an extremely important impact on the hydrological cycle and the redistribution of water resources in arid and semi-arid regions. In this paper, based on the daily cloud-free snow area remote sensing product data in the source region of Yangtze River (SRYR) from 2000 to 2019, the snow phenology variables such as the snow cover day (SCD), snow onset date (SOD), snow end date (SED), and snow duration day (SDD) were extracted separately for each hydrological year, and the vertical distribution of snow cover area (SCA) in the SRYR was analyzed by combining with the digital elevation model (DEM). In addition, we also combined climate factors and land cover types to further explore the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of snow phenology in response to different influencing factors, in order to reveal the spatiotemporal variation patterns of snow cover in the SRYR. The results showed that: (1) The SCA in the SRYR has a more obvious vertical distribution, with the maximum SCA reaching 61.58% at high elevation, while at low elevation, the SCA is mostly below 20%. The distribution of SCD in the study area showed a significant exponential correlation with DEM (R2 = 0.87). (2) The area of SOD in the SRYR showed an advanced trend of about 63.37%, while the area of SED showed a delayed trend of about 69.59%, and the area which showed significant trends is 4.29% and 4.36%, respectively. Therefore, the trends of both SOD and SED showed insignificant changes. (3) Temperature change is the main factor affecting the change of snow cover in the SRYR. Among them, 90.9% of the regions showed a significant positive correlation between temperature and SCD, while precipitation showed a significant negative correlation with SCD in about 75.3% of the total area of SRYR. Under the stable snow area (SCD > 60), the land cover type is glacial or permanent snow about 1.5 × 103 km2, which covers almost the entire glacial or permanent snow of the SRYR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lakes are sensitive indicators of climatic change and are important resources for regional economic development. In recent years, there have been many studies related to the changes in lake area and lake volume. However, further studies are still required to understand the responses of lakes to climatic change and human activities. This paper utilizes lakes in the Qaidam Basin, an inland arid region of China, as the object of study and investigates the characteristics of variability in lake changes and its driving forces by combining multi-source remote sensing, model simulations and historical data. We first analyzed the spatiotemporal pattern of climatic change in the basin under the background of global warming. The response of lake water volume to climatic change and human activities is then discussed. Finally, the main factors that affect the change in lake water volume in different regions of the basin are delineated. The water volume of lakes in the Qaidam Basin increased by 3.81 km3 from 1990 to 2020. Particularly since the 21st century, the water volume of lakes has increased rapidly, and an increasingly abrupt change appeared around 2015. The increases in precipitation and vegetation area are the main and secondary factors that led to the increase in total lake water volume in the basin, respectively. However, the main influencing factors still vary in different regions. The impact of air temperature, evaporation, and changes in the cropland area on the change in lake water volume is generally not obvious. Human activities, such as the development of salt lakes and damming, have led to substantial changes in the spatial pattern of lakes in the middle of the basin and are associated with the replacement, genesis, and disappearance of Yiliping Lake, Yahu Lake and West Taijinar Lake, respectively. This study reveals the changing characteristics of climate and lake water volume in inland arid basins in China, which are highly important to understand the responses of lakes to climatic change and human activities, and provides a scientific basis for the rational development and utilization of lake resources in arid basins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is an important factor that needs to be considered in regional water management and allocation; thus, the reasonable estimation of PET is an important topic in hydrometeorology and other related fields. There is evidence that increased CO2 concentration alters the physiological properties of vegetation and thus affects PET. In this study, changes in PET with and without the CO2 effect over China is investigated using seven CMIP6-GCMs outputs under seven shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) based scenarios (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5), as well as the contribution rate of CO2 on PET in different climatic regions. Changes in estimated PET based on modified Penman–Monteith (PM) method that considers the CO2 effect is compared with the traditional PM method to examine how PET quantity varies (differences) between these two approaches. The results show that the PET values estimated by the two methods explored opposite trends in 1961–2014 over entire China; it decreases with consideration of CO2 but increases without consideration of CO2. In the future, overall PET is projected to increase under all scenarios during 2015–2100 for China and its three sub-regions. PET generally tends to grow slower when CO2 is taken into account (modified PM approach), than when it is not (traditional PM method). In terms of differences in the estimated PET by the two methods, the difference between the two adopted methods increased in China and its sub-regions for the 1961–2014 period. In the future, the difference in estimated PET is anticipated to continuously increase under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. Spatially, a much greater extent of difference is found in the arid region. Across the arid region, the PET difference is projected to be the highest at 138% in the mid-term (2041–2060) with respect to the 1995–2014 period, whereas it tends to increase slower in the long-term period (2081–2100). Importantly, CO2 is found to be the most dominant factor (−154.2% contribution) to have a great effect on PET changes across the arid region. Our findings suggest that ignorance of CO2 concentration in PET estimation will result in significant overestimation of PET in the arid region. However, consideration of CO2 in PET estimation will be beneficial for formulating strategies on future water resource management and sustainable development at the local scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wetlands within dryland regions are highly sensitive to climate change and human activities. Based on three types of land use data sources from satellite images and a spatial data analysis, the spatiotemporal characteristics of wetland evolution in China's drylands and their relationship with human interference and climate change from 1990 to 2020 were analyzed. The results were as follows: (1) The wetlands within China's drylands expanded, including rivers, lakes, and artificial wetlands, apart from marshes, which shrunk. Meanwhile, wetland fragmentation increased, with rivers being particularly severely fragmented. (2) Temperature and precipitation showed an increasing trend from 1990 to 2020 in China's drylands. Lakes and rivers expanded with regional differences due to the uneven distribution of precipitation and rising temperature. (3) Human activities, more than climate change, became the key driving factor for the changes in wetland patterns in China's drylands. The increased areas of farmland and grassland along with increased levels of drainage and irrigation activities led to the shrinkage of marshes and the fragmentation of rivers. The increase in the number of artificial reservoirs was the main reason for the expansion of artificial wetlands. This study clarifies the specific driving factors of different types of wetlands within China's drylands, which is of great use for better protecting wetlands and the gradual restoration of degraded wetlands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies on China's arid and semi-arid regions, particularly the Tarim River Basin (TRB), have shown an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. This research examines the link between meteorological droughts, as measured by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and hydrological droughts, as indicated by the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) and the Standardized Terrestrial Water Storage Index (STI), over various time scales. Historical data indicate that SPEI drought frequency (DF) was 14.3–21.9%, with prevalent events in the northern oases. SRI DF ranged from 9.0% to 35.8%, concentrated around the Taklamakan and Kumtag Deserts, while STI DF varied between 4.4% and 32.7%, averaging 15% basin-wide. Future projections show an increased DF of SPEI in deserts and a decrease in oases; SRI DF decreased in deserts but increased in oases. STI changes were more moderate. The study also found a higher risk of drought progression from SPEI to SRI in the southwestern and northeastern oases, exceeding 50% probability, while central and eastern TRB had lower risks. The western TRB and inner Taklamakan Desert faced higher risks of SPEI to STI progression, with probabilities over 45%, in contrast to the lower risks in the eastern and central oases. The concurrence of SRI/STI with moderate to extreme SPEI droughts led to a higher probability and area of SRI/STI droughts, whereas consistent SPEI types showed a reduced induced probability and extent of SRI/STI droughts. This study enhances the understanding of drought propagation from meteorological to hydrological droughts in the TRB and contributes to the prevention of hydrological drought to a certain extent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A better understanding of the effects of climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC) on streamflow promotes the long-term water planning and management in the arid regions of northwestern China. In this paper, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and a separation approach were used to evaluate and separate the effects of climate change and LUCC on streamflow in the Xiying River basin. The SWAT model was calibrated by the hydro-meteorological data from 1980-1989 to obtain the optimum parameters, which were validated by the subsequent application to the period between 1990-2008. Moreover, streamflow under several scenarios with different climate change and land use conditions in 1990-2008 and 2010-2069 were further investigated. Results indicate that, in the period of 1990-2008, the streamflow was dominated by climate change (i.e., changes in precipitation and temperature), which led to a 102.8% increase in the mean annual streamflow, whereas LUCC produced a decrease of 2.8%. Furthermore, in the future period of 2010-2039, the mean annual streamflow will decrease by 5.4% and 4.5% compared with the data of 1961-1990 under scenarios A2 and B2, respectively, while it will decrease by 21.2% and 16.9% in the period of 2040-2069, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accurate monitoring of vegetation phenology is critical for carbon sequestration and sink enhancement. Vegetation phenology in arid zones is more sensitive to climate responses; therefore, it is important to conduct research on phenology in arid zones in response to global climate change. This study compared the applicability of the enhanced vegetation index (EVI), which is superior in arid zones, and global solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (GOSIF), which has a high spatial resolution, in extracting vegetation phenology in arid zones, and explored the mechanism of the differences in the effects of environmental factors on the phenology of different vegetation types. Therefore, this study employed a global solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (GOSIF) dataset to determine the start and end of the vegetation growth season (SOSSIF and EOSSIF, respectively) in the arid zone of Northwest China from 2001 to 2019. The results were compared with those from the EVI-based MODIS climate product MCD12Q2 (SOSEVI and EOSEVI). Variations in the sensitivity of these climatic datasets concerning temperature, precipitation, and standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were assessed through partial correlation analysis. Results: Compared to the MCD12Q2 climatic products, SOSSIF and EOSSIF closely matched the observed climate data in the study area. Spring onset was delayed at higher altitudes and latitudes, and the end of the growing season occurred earlier in these areas. Both SOSSIF and EOSSIF significantly advanced from 2001 to 2019 (trend degrees −0.22 and −0.48, respectively). Spring vegetation phenology was chiefly influenced by precipitation while autumn vegetation phenology was driven by both precipitation and SPEI. GOSIF-based climate data provides a more accurate representation of vegetation phenology compared to traditional vegetation indices. The findings of this study contribute to a deeper understanding of the potential ability of EVI and SIF to reveal the influence of vegetation phenology on the carbon cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How to distinguish the relative role of climate change and human activities in vegetation dynamics has attracted increasing attention. However, most of the current studies concentrate on arid and semiarid regions, while the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to vegetation changes remain unclear in warm-humid regions. Based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and climatic variables (temperature, precipitation, radiation) during 2001–2020, this study used the Theil–Sen median trend analysis, partial correlation analysis, and residual trend analysis to analyze the spatiotemporal pattern of vegetation trends, the response of vegetation to climate variations, and the climatic and anthropogenic contributions to vegetation dynamics in the warm and humid Guangdong Province of south China. Results showed that the NDVI in most areas exhibited an increasing trend. Changes in climatic variables displayed different spatial variations which, however, were not significant in most areas. Vegetation responded diversely to climate change with temperature as the most important climatic factor for vegetation improvement in most areas, while precipitation was the dominant climatic factor in the southern edge region and radiation was the dominant climatic factor in the central and western regions. Vegetation in most areas was influenced by both climate change and human activities, but the contribution rate of human activities was commonly much higher than climate change. The findings of this study are expected to enhance our understanding of the relative climatic and anthropogenic contributions to vegetation changes in warm-humid regions and provide a scientific basis for future ecological policies and ecosystem management in highly urbanized regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whether or not large-scale vegetation restoration will lead to a decrease in regional terrestrial water storage is a controversial topic. This study employed the Geodetector model, in conjunction with observed and satellite hydro-meteorological data, to detect the changes in terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) and to identify the contributions of climate change and vegetation greening across China during the years 1982–2019. The results revealed that: (1) during the period of 1982–2019, TWSA showed a downward trend in about two thirds of the country, with significant declines in North China, southeast Tibet, and northwest Xinjiang, and an upward trend in the remaining third of the country, with significant increases mainly in the Qaidam Basin, the Yangtze River, and the Songhua River; (2) the positive correlation between normalized vegetation index (NDVI) and TWSA accounts for 48.64% of the total vegetation area across China. In addition, the response of vegetation greenness lags behind the TWSA and precipitation, and the lag time was shorter in arid and semi-arid regions dominated by grasslands, and longer in relatively humid regions dominated by forests and savannas; (3) furthermore, TWSAs decreased with the increase in NDVI and evapotranspiration (ET) in arid and semi-arid areas, and increased with the rise in NDVI and ET in the humid regions. The Geodetector model was used to detect the effects of climate, vegetation, and human factors on TWSA. It is worth mentioning that NDVI, precipitation, and ET were some of the main factors affecting TWSA. Therefore, it is essential to implement rational ecological engineering to mitigate climate change's negative effects and maintain water resources' sustainability in arid and semi-arid regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Wuwei area in the arid region of northwestern China is impacted by the harsh natural environment and human activities, and the problem of ecological degradation is severe there. In order to ensure the sustainable development of the regional social economy, it is necessary to monitor the changes in vegetation in Wuwei and its corresponding nonlinear relationships with climate change and human activities. In this study, the inter-annual and spatial–temporal evolution characteristics of vegetation in Wuwei from 1982 to 2015 have been analyzed based on non-parametric statistical methods. The analysis revealed that the areas of vegetation restoration and degradation accounted for 77 and 23% of the total area of the research area, respectively. From 1982 to 1999, vegetation degradation became extremely serious (14.4%) and was primarily concentrated in Gulang County and the high-altitude areas in the southwest. Since the ecological restoration project was implemented in 2000, there have been prominent results in vegetation restoration. The geographically and temporally weighted regression model shows that each climate factor has contributed to the vegetation restoration in the Wuwei area during the last 34 years, with their contributions ranked as precipitation (71.2%), PET (43.9%), solar radiation (34.8%), temperature (33.1%), and wind speed (31%). An analysis of the land-use data with 30 m resolution performed in this study revealed that the conversion area among land cover from 1985 to 2015 accounts for 14.9% of the total area. In it, the conversion area from non-ecological land to ecological land accounts for 5.7% of the total area. The farmland, grassland, and woodland areas have increased by 20.1, 20.6, and 8.5%, respectively, indicating that human activities such as agricultural intensification and ecological restoration projects have played a crucial role in vegetation restoration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the fact that gross primary productivity (GPP) and water use efficiency (WUE) have been widely used as indicators to evaluate the water-carbon cycle, uncertainties exist in the patterns of GPP and WUE responses to climate variability along different aridity gradients. In this study, the aridity index was used to divide China into four arid-humid zones. The spatiotemporal variability of multiple vegetation types GPP and WUE in response to climate change under different arid-humid zones were investigated based on remote sensing data. The results indicated that the increasing trend of WUE in the four arid-humid zones of China was less pronounced than GPP from 2001 to 2021. The GPP value decreased gradually from the humid to the arid zone, and the WUE value in the arid zone was slightly higher than in the semi-arid zone. The GPP of all vegetation types in China showed a tendency to increase, while shrubland and wetland WUE tended to decrease. The major vegetation types (e.g., forest, cropland and grassland) in each aridity gradient contributed to the changes in local GPP and WUE. However, in individual arid-humid zones, wetland and shrubland also exhibited high GPP and WUE values that were not inferior to forest and cropland. Temperature and precipitation were the main climatic factors responsible for the increase in vegetation GPP in different aridity gradients, with a higher positive correlation for temperature than precipitation. WUE showed a distinct positive and negative correlation with the thermal factors (temperature and net radiation) and the moisture factors (precipitation and relative humidity); this pattern was more pronounced in the humid and semi-humid zones. Net radiation and precipitation may be the main climatic factors causing a slight upward trend in WUE across the arid-humid zones, while the decrease in shrubland and wetland WUE may be related to relative humidity and precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyzing trends in flood magnitude changes, and their underlying causes, under climate change, is a key challenge for the effective management of water resources in arid and semi-arid regions, particularly for inland rivers originating in the Qilian Mountains (QMs). Sen's slope estimator and the Mann–Kendall test were used to investigate the spatial and temporal trends in flood magnitude, based on the annual maximum peak discharge (AMPD) and Peaks Over Threshold magnitude (POT3M) flood series, of twelve typical rivers, from 1970 to 2021. The results showed that, in the AMPD series, 42% of the rivers had significantly decreasing trends, while 8% had significantly increasing trends; in the POT3M series, 25% of the rivers had significantly decreasing trends, while 8% had significantly increasing trends. The regional differences in the QMs from east to west were that, rivers in the eastern region (e.g., Gulang, Zamu, and Xiying rivers) showed significantly decreasing trends in the AMPD and POT3M series; most rivers in the central region had non-significant trends, while the Shule river in the western region showed a significantly increasing trend. Temperatures and precipitation showed a fluctuating increasing trend after 1987, which were the main factors contributing to the change in flood magnitude trends of the AMPD and POT3M flood series in the QMs. Regional differences in precipitation, precipitation intensity, and the ratio of glacial meltwater in the eastern, central and western regions, resulted in the differences in flood magnitude trends between the east and west. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The change in natural runoff is highly relevant to total river flow dispatch and water resource utilization in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). Based on the annual mean temperature and total precipitation records from 70 meteorological stations from 1961–2020, the impact of climate change on the natural runoff of the YRB is investigated using the Mann-Kendall (M-K) test and Bivariate Wavelet analysis methods. Results show that the annual mean temperature over the YRB increased by 0.33 °C decade−1 during 1961–2020, with a warming rate of more than 0.40 °C decade−1 observed in its northern part. The annual total precipitation increases by 10–20 mm decade−1 in the northwest YRB, while it decreases by 20–30 mm decade−1 in the southeast YRB. The result of the M-K test shows abrupt variations in temperature and natural runoff, especially in the 1980s and 1990s. The decrease in natural runoff is closely tied to the increase (decrease) in temperature (precipitation), especially for the period 1993–2020. The bivariate wavelet coherence analysis further suggests that the decrease in the natural runoff, which has persisted over the past 60 years, is primarily driven by precipitation reduction rather than regional warming. In the stage of rapid warming, the inter-decadal influence of precipitation on natural runoff gradually changes to the influence of inter-annual fluctuation. The finding contributes to providing an important scientific basis for evaluating the optimal allocation of water resources in arid and semi-arid areas against the background of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over-fertilization has a significant impact on soil microbial properties and its ecological environment. However, the effects of long-term fertilization on microbial properties on a large scale are still vague. This meta-analysis collected 6211 data points from 109 long-term experimental sites in China to evaluate the effects of fertilizer type and fertilization duration, as well as soil and climate conditions, on the effect sizes on various microbial properties and indices. The organic fertilizers combined with straw (NPKS) and manure (NPKM) had the highest effect sizes, while the chemical fertilizers N (sole N fertilizer) and NPK (NPK fertilizer) had the lowest. When compared with the control, NPKM treatment had the highest effect size, while N treatment had the lowest effect size on MBN (111% vs. 19%), PLFA (110% vs. −7%), fungi (88% vs. 43%), Actinomycetes (97% vs. 44%), urease (77% vs. 25%), catalase (15% vs. −11%), and phosphatase (58% vs. 4%). NPKM treatment had the highest while NPK treatment had the lowest effect size on bacteria (123% vs. 33%). NPKS treatment had the highest while N treatment had the lowest effect sizes on MBC (77% vs. 8%) and invertase (59% vs. 0.2%). NPKS treatment had the highest while NPK treatment had the lowest effect size on the Shannon index (5% vs. 1%). The effect sizes of NPKM treatment were the highest predominantly in arid regions because of the naturally low organic carbon in soils of these regions. The effect sizes on various microbial properties were also highly dependent on soil texture. In coarse-textured soils the effect sizes on MBC and MBN peaked sooner compared with those of clayey or silty soils, although various enzymes were most active in silty soils during the first 10 years of fertilization. Effect sizes on microbial properties were generally higher under NPKM and NPKS treatments than under NPK or N treatments, with considerable effects due to climate conditions. The optimal field fertilizer regime could be determined based on the effects of fertilizer type on soil microorganisms under various climate conditions and soil textures. This will contribute to the microbial biodiversity and soil health of agricultural land. Such controls should be used for adaptation of fertilization strategies to global changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Better understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation is essential in developing the best management practices for ecological restoration and soil erosion control on China's Loess Plateau, an arid and semiarid region with severe soil erosion. This study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal trends of precipitation using long-term precipitation data from 1957 to 2018 from the 100 national standard meteorological stations across the Loess Plateau. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall statistical test and geospatial interpolation were used to detect the trends and to analyze spatial patterns of annual and seasonal precipitation. Wavelet analysis was applied to examine periodical variation across the plateau. The results reveal that regional annual precipitation over the Loess Plateau decreased during the 62 years of the study at a mean rate of −1.05 mm/10 years (p > 0.1). The changes in annual precipitation showed a periodical fluctuation with an increasing trend from 1957 to 1969, a decreasing trend from 1970 to 1999, and an increasing trend again in the first 18 years of the 21st century. The annual precipitation decreased in all eight sub-annual periods except for winter. Spatially, a decreasing trend occurred in the southern and eastern parts of the Loess Plateau, whereas a slight increase existed in the northwest in all periods. The decrease in six stations was statistically significant (p < 0.05), and a significant increase occurred in four stations (p < 0.1). These changes can be explained by an evident southward shift of the precipitation isohyets especially for 350 mm, 450 mm and 550 mm from the 1960s to the 1990s, and a clearly northward shift after the 1990s. Findings from this study facilitate an understanding of the spatial temporal trends of precipitation so appropriate countermeasures can be developed for effective vegetation restoration and soil erosion control across the Loess Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and human activities significantly affected environmental changes in drylands. However, the relative roles remain unclear regarding these factors' effects on environment changes in drylands. Herein, we analyzed vegetation change trends using remote-sensing datasets to determine the interactions of vegetation, climate, and anthropogenic activities in an arid region of China, Kubuqi Desert. Our study showed that 67.64% of the pixels of fractional vegetation coverage (FVC) increased in 2020 in comparison with those of 1986. The FVC exhibited a significant greening trend (0.0011/yr, p < 0.05) in 1986–2020 as a whole. This greening trend revealed two distinct periods separated by a turning point in 2001. There was no clear trend of FVC before 2001, and then there was a dramatically greening trend since 2001 in most regions of the study area. The increasing rate (0.0036/yr) in the later period was three times higher than the entire period. The accelerated increasing trend was due to the variable compound effects of climate and human activities. The correlation between FVC and precipitation was mainly positive, which outweighs the significantly negative correlation between vegetation and temperature. However, both climatic factors cannot well explain the trends of vegetation dynamics, implying a possible role for human activities. Generally, climate change and anthropogenic activities contributed 42.15% and 57.85% to the overall vegetation variations in 1986–2020. Specifically, the relative role of the two factors was vastly different in two distinct periods. Climate change led the dominant roles (58.68%) in the vegetation variations in 1986–2001, while anthropogenic activities dominated (86.79%) in driving vegetation recovery in the period after 2001. Due to the massive ecological conservation programs such as the Grain for Green Project launched in 2001, substantial deserts have been transformed into grasslands and forests. This analysis highlights the ecological policies largely responsible for vegetation restoration and provides references for ecological protection and sustainable development in eco-fragile ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an important part of the global ecosystem, wetlands and their dynamics greatly influence regional eco-environment systems. To understand the distributions, change processes and temporal-spatial characteristics of the wetlands of the inland river basin in an arid region (Heihe River Basin, HRB), this paper employed multi-source remote sensing data to facilitate multi-temporal monitoring of the HRB wetland using a wetland information extraction method. First, we performed monitoring of these wetlands for the years 2000, 2007, 2011 and 2014; then, we analyzed the variation characteristics of the spatial-temporal dynamics of the wetlands in the HRB over the last 15 years via the landscape dynamic change model and the transformation matrix. In addition, we studied the possible driving mechanisms of these changes. The research results showed that the total area of the HRB wetlands had decreased by 2959.13 hectares in the last 15 years (Since 2000), and the annual average loss was 1.09%. The dynamics characterizing the HRB wetlands generally presented a trend of slow increase after an initial decrease, which can be classified into three stages. From 2000 to 2007, the total wetland area rapidly decreased; from 2007 to 2011, the area slowly decreased; and from 2011 to 2014, the area gradually increased. The dynamic changing processes characterizing the wetland resources were ascribed to a combination of natural processes and human activities. The main driving mechanisms of wetland dynamic changes include climatic conditions, upper reach water inflows, population, water resources, cultivated area, and policy. The findings of this study can served as reference and support for the conservation and management of wetland resources in the HRB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the impacts and extent of both climate change and human activities on ecosystems is crucial to sustainable development. With low anti-interference ability, arid and semi-arid ecosystems are particularly sensitive to disturbances from both climate change and human activities. We investigated how and to what extent climate variation and human activities influenced major indicators that are related to ecosystem functions and conditions in the past decades in Xinjiang, a typical arid and semi-arid region in China. We analyzed the changing trends of evapotranspiration (ET), gross primary productivity (GPP) and leaf area index (LAI) derived from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite product and the Breathing Earth System Simulator (BESS) model in Xinjiang for different climate zones. We separated and quantified the contributions of climate forcing and human activities on the trends of the studied ecosystem indicators using the residual analysis method for different climate zones in Xinjiang. The results show that GPP and LAI increased and ET decreased from 2001 to 2015 in Xinjiang. Factors that dominate the changes in ecosystem indicators vary considerably across different climate zones. Precipitation plays a positive role in impacting vegetation indicators in arid and hyper-arid zones and temperature has a negative correlation with both GPP and LAI in hyper-arid zones in Xinjiang. Results based on residual analysis indicate that human activities could account for over 72% of variation in the changes in each ecosystem indicator. Human activities have large impacts on each vegetation indicator change in hyper-arid and arid zones and their relative contribution has a mean value of 79%. This study quantifies the roles of climate forcing and human activities in the changes in ecosystem indicators across different climate zones, suggesting that human activities largely influence ecosystem processes in the arid and semi-arid regions of Xinjiang in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has a significant impact on water resources. Forecasts and simulations of climate runoff processes are essential for assessing the impact of global climate change on runoff variations. This study focuses on the upper Taohe River Basin, which is an important watershed in the semi-arid regions of northwest China. To assess the runoff in the upper Taohe River Basin and the responses to climate change, the SWAT hydrological model was used to analyze future climate change scenarios and their effects on water resources. The results indicate that the minimum temperature would increase gradually in the 21st century and that the minimum temperature change would be more significant than the maximum temperature change, which indicates that minimum temperature changes would make an obvious contribution to future regional warming. Under RCP2.6, the average precipitation would decrease; at the same time, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the average precipitation would increase. In the future, under different climate scenarios, the runoff will exhibit droughts and flood disasters. These research results provide scientific support for water resource utilization and management in the Taohe River Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of climate change on ecosystem productivity and water resources over a long term in China are not well quantified. Precipitation-use efficiency (PUE) is a key parameter that describes carbon and water exchange in terrestrial ecosystems. Research on the response of regional PUE to climate change and its driving forces is of great significance to climate-change mitigation and the sustainable development of regional ecology. Based on an improved actual evapotranspiration (ETa) model, the responses of ETa, net primary productivity (NPP), and PUE to climate change in different climatic regions of China were analyzed; the contributions of various environmental factors to PUE changes were quantified; and the conversion characteristics and regulatory mechanisms of the PUE regime in different climatic regions were identified. The results indicate that the improved ETa model, after considering the limiting effect of energy on ETa in humid regions, can simulate the ETa distribution in China well. Over the past 58 years (1960–2017), ETa and NPP have increased in the western regions and decreased in the eastern regions, with the boundary at 103° E. PUE presents a "low-high-low" spatial distribution from northwest to southeast in China. It is noteworthy that there was a zonal distribution for a high value area of PUE, which coincided with the summer monsoon transition zone. The soil moisture (SM) increase in arid regions is the main driving force of the PUE increase, whereas the annual net radiation (Rn) change in humid regions is the main driving force of the PUE change. The transition zone is the conversion zone, where the prevailing factor limiting vegetation growth transitions from water to energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has been thought to drive the accelerated expansion of global drylands. However, many studies reveal that Arid Central Asia (ACA) has been warming and wetting in recent decades, representing an anomalous response to global climate change. Given that ACA is composed of complex ecosystems and landforms, it is not clear whether or not this trend is uniform in this topographically heterogenous region. Here, we integrate the Google Earth Engine and ERA5-Land reanalysis data to study the trend of changes, since the 1980s, in temperature and precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains and the surrounding deserts, collectively referred to as the Tianshan and Desert Ecozone, which is in Northwest China. Our results show that only 20.4% of this area is becoming both warmer and wetter, which occurs mainly in the altitudes above 2800 m (Tianshan Ecozone). All three alpine ecosystems (coniferous forests, alpine meadow, and nival zone) in the Tianshan Ecozone exhibit similar warming and wetting trends, including of elevation-dependent wetting on the specific altitude range. In contrast, the low-lying oasis where human activities are mostly concentrated is undergoing warming and drying, which will face a greater threat of drought projected under three emissions scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). These results highlight the importance of considering the differences of climate change in different altitude gradients and different ecosystems when studying climate change in drylands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lake evaporation is a critical component of the hydrological cycle. Quantifying lake evaporation in hyper-arid regions by measurement and estimation can both provide reliable potential evaporation (ET0) reference and promote a deeper understanding of the regional hydrological process and its response towards changing climate. We placed a floating E601 evaporation pan on East Juyan Lake, which is representative of arid regions' terminal lakes, to measure daily evaporation and conducted simultaneous bankside synoptic observation during the growing season of 2013-2015. A semi-empirical evaporation model derived from Dalton model was parameterized and validated with measured data. The model was then used to estimate lake evaporation during 2002-2015. According to in situ measurements, maximum, minimum and mean lake evaporation were 8.1, 3.7 and 6.5 mm/day, and growing season evaporation was 1183.3 mm (~80% of the annual amount). Adding up non-growing season evaporation that we converted from Φ20 pan evaporation at Ejina weather station, the annual mean lake evaporation, 1471.3 mm, was representative of lower Heihe River's ET0. Model inter-comparison implied our model performed well both in simplicity and accuracy and has potential utilization in a data-sparse area. In 2002-2015, estimated mean daily evaporation was 6.5 mm/day and growing season evaporation was 1233.7 mm. Trend analysis of estimated evaporation proved the evaporation paradox's existence in this hyper-arid region and validated complementary relationship theory's adaptability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigating the attributions of evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP) changes is of great importance for regional, sustainable water resources and ecological management in semi-arid regions. Based on the simulation conducted during 2000–2019 by improving water-carbon coupling Distributed Time Variant Gain Model, the trends of ET and GPP were estimated and the driving factors were identified via 10 experimental scenarios in the water source area of the Xiong'an New Area in North China. The results show significant increases both in ET and GPP by 2.4 mm/a and 6.0 gC/m2/a in the region, respectively. At the annual scale, increasing precipitation dominates the ET uptrend. Air temperature, humidity and the interactive effects also contribute to the ET uptrend, and the contributions are 12.8%, 2.0% and 2.3%, respectively, while elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2) and solar dimming lead to ET changes of about −7.2% and −12.4%, respectively. For the GPP changes, the increase in GPP is mainly caused by eCO2, increasing precipitation and rising temperature with the contributions of 56.7%, 34.8% and 27.8%, respectively. Solar dimming, humidity and windspeed contribute −6.8%, −4.8% and −3.5% of the GPP changes. Compared to climate change, land use and cover change has smaller effects on both ET and GPP for the few changes in land coverage. At the seasonal scale, ET and GPP increase to a greater extent during the growing season in spring and summer than in autumn and winter. Precipitation, temperature and eCO2 are generally the main causes for ET and GPP changes. Meanwhile, the decreasing humidity and rising temperature are dominant factors for ET and GPP increases, respectively, in winter. Furthermore, solar dimming has strong effects on ET reduction in autumn. The contribution of the interactive effects is much higher on a seasonal scale than annual scale, contributing to considerable decreases in ET and GPP in spring, increases in ET in autumn and winter, and an increase in GPP in winter. This study highlights the importance of considering water-carbon coupling on the attributions of ET and GPP changes and the differentiation of the effects by the abovementioned influential factors at annual and seasonal scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transitional climate zones (TCZ) are characterized by instability due to rapid changes in climate and biological variables, and trees growing there are particularly sensitive to climate change. Therefore, knowledge about the shifted relationships of tree growth in response to climate warming will shape regional forest conservation and management strategies. China has experienced rapid warming in recent decades. However, how tree growth in semihumid to semiarid regions, such as the Guandi Mountains, responds to more sophisticated changes in the hydrothermal combination is not yet clear. In this study, we used tree-ring width data from three sites along an elevational gradient in the Guandi Mountains to present the response of Picea wilsonii Mast. radial growth to increasing temperature and elevational differences in the relationship between tree growth and climate. The results indicated that the Guandi Mountains have experienced rapid warming with a clear trend toward aridity. From 1959 to 1995, the radial growth of P. wilsonii was mainly influenced by temperature, while it was controlled by both temperature and precipitation after rapid warming in 1996. From 1959 to 2017, this species showed a generally consistent growth–climate relationship at different elevations in the Guandi Mountains. However, the radial growth of trees at higher elevations had a higher climatic correlation than at lower elevations, and it was more conditioned by higher summer temperatures and precipitation in December of the previous year. These results suggested that P. wilsonii was more susceptible to drought and high temperatures due to a warming climate and that more attention should be devoted to forest management, especially the adverse consequences of summer drought on P. wilsonii. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water is the most critical factor that restricts the economic and social development of arid regions. It is urgent to understand the impact on cryospheric changes of water resources in arid regions in western China under the background of global warming. A cryospheric basin hydrological model (CBHM) was used to simulate the runoff, especially for glaciers and snowmelt water supply, in the Shiyang River Basin (SRB). A cryosphere water resources service function model was proposed to evaluate the value of cryosphere water resources. The annual average temperature increased significantly (p > 0.05) from 1961 to 2016. The runoff of glacier and snowmelt water in the SRB decreased significantly. This reduction undoubtedly greatly weakens the runoff regulation function. The calculation and value evaluation of the amount of water resources in the cryosphere of Shiyang River Basin is helpful to the government for adjusting water structure to realize sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response mechanism of groundwater to climate change and human activities in cities within arid and semi-arid regions, such as the Urban Planning Area of Baotou City (UPABC), northern China, is a complicated problem to understand. We analyzed the climate change relationships, including precipitation and temperature, and analyzed changes in human activities, such as groundwater consumption, and then statistically analyzed the main factors affecting groundwater depth. Furthermore, cross-wavelet and wavelet coherence methods were used to analyze the response relationship and hysteresis of groundwater depth to precipitation to better understand the groundwater depth response law. The results showed that the annual precipitation in the UPABC reduction rate was 3.3 mm/10 yr, and the annual average temperature increase rate was 0.43 °C/10 yr, from 1981 to 2017. The unconfined water decrease rate was 0.50 m/yr, and the confined water decrease rate was 0.7 m/yr. The unconfined and confined water depths were affected by precipitation and groundwater exploitation, respectively, with correlation coefficients of 0.58 and 0.57, respectively. The hysteresis of groundwater depth to precipitation was about 9–14 months. However, changes in groundwater depth, especially confined water depth, were greatly affected by groundwater exploitation. This reflected the imbalance in consumption and recharges in the UPABC, highlighting the long-term risk in areas relying on access to this resource. Therefore, arid inland zones of northern China, such as the UPABC, should pay more attention to the rational development of groundwater and strengthen the management and protection of groundwater resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change not only affects the processes within the water cycle but also leads to the frequent occurrences of local and regional extreme drought events. In China, spatial and temporal characterizations of drought events and their future changing trends are of great importance in water resources planning and management. In this study, we employed self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (SC-PDSI), cluster algorithm, and severity-area-duration (SAD) methods to identify drought events and analyze the spatial and temporal distributions of various drought characteristics in China using observed data and CMIP5 model outputs. Results showed that during the historical period (1961–2000), the drought event of September 1965 was the most severe, affecting 47.07% of the entire land area of China, and shorter duration drought centers (lasting less than 6 months) were distributed all over the country. In the future (2021–2060), under both representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, drought is projected to occur less frequently, but the duration of the most severe drought event is expected to be longer than that in the historical period. Furthermore, drought centers with shorter duration are expected to occur throughout China, but the long-duration drought centers (lasting more than 24 months) are expected to mostly occur in the west of the arid region and in the northeast of the semi-arid region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding historical trends in temperature, precipitation, and runoff is important but incomplete for developing adaptive measures to climate change to sustain fragile ecosystems in cold and arid regions, including the Balagaer River watershed on the Mongolian Plateau of northeast China. The objective of this study was to detect such trends in this watershed from 1959 to 2017. The detection was accomplished using a Mann-Kendall sudden change approach at annual and seasonal time scales. The results indicated that the abrupt changes in temperature preceded that in either runoff or precipitation; these abrupt changes occurred between 1970 and 2004. Significant (α = 0.05) warming trends were found at the minimum temperatures in spring (0.041 °C a−1), summer (0.037 °C a−1), fall (0.027 °C a−1), and winter (0.031 °C a−1). In contrast, significant decreasing trends were found in the precipitation (−1.27 mm a−1) and runoff (−0.069 mm a−1) in the summer. Marginally increasing trends were found in the precipitation in spring (0.18 mm a−1) and fall (0.032 mm a−1), whereas an insignificant decreasing trend was found in the runoffs in these two seasons. Both precipitation and runoff in the wet season exhibited a significant decreasing trend, whereas in the dry season, they exhibited a marginally increasing trend. Sudden changes in spring runoff and sudden rises in temperature are the main causes of sudden changes in basin rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conducting water resource assessment and forecasting at a basin scale requires effective and accurate simulation of the hydrological process. However, intensive, complex human activities and environmental changes are constraining and challenging the hydrological modeling development and application by complicating the hydrological cycle within its local contexts. Six sub-catchments of the Yellow River basin, the second-largest river in China, situated in a semi-arid climate zone, have been selected for this study, considering hydrological processes under a natural period (before 1970) and under intensive human disturbance (2000–2013). The study aims to assess the capacity and performance of the hydrological models in simulating the discharge under a changing environment. Four well-documented and applied hydrological models, i.e., the Xin'anjiang (XAJ) model, GR4J model, SIMHYD model, and RCCC-WBM (Water Balance Model developed by Research Center for Climate Change) model, were selected for this assessment. The results show that (1) the annual areal temperature of all sub-catchments presented a significant rising trend, and annual precipitation exhibited insignificant decline trend; (2) as a result of climate change and intensive human activities, the annual runoff series showed a declining trend with abrupt changes mostly occurring in the 1980s with the exception of the Tangnaihai station; (3) the four hydrological models generally performed well for runoff simulation for all sub-catchments under the natural period. In terms of Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, the XAJ model worked better in comparison to other hydrological models due to its detailed representations and complicated mechanism in runoff generation and flow-routing scheme; (4) environmental changes have impacted the performance of the four hydrological models under all sub-catchments, in particularly the Pianguan River catchment, which is could be attributed to the various human activities that in turn represent more complexity for the regional hydrological cycle to some extent, and reduce the ability to predict the runoff series; (5) the RCCC-WBM model, well known for its simple structure and principles, is considered to be acceptable for runoff simulation for both natural and human disturbance periods, and is recommended for water resource assessment under changing environments for semi-arid regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]