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This paper discusses the relationship between morality and engagement focused on the narratives about climate change. The goal of our research is to understand whether moral grounds identified in individuals and in narratives can influence youth's engagement in environmental debate and news consumption on climate change. Recognizing that people's perceptions of climate change are related to several factors, such as ideas, cultures, and values, we sought to understand whether there is a "green morality" or a prevalence of more responsive moral attributes in individuals when they are exposed to thinking about the environment. We use the Moral Foundations Theory to analyze comments on the environmental news on Twitter and a questionnaire adapted to the environment on moral grounds. The data were collected from Brazil and Portugal between 2021 and 2022. The overall results showed a high incidence of responses with Care/Harm and Fairness/Cheating, and an average incidence of responses related to Loyalty/Betrayal and Authority/Subversion. The results indicate that youngsters show a more prominent moral to care and environmental harm, as well as justice and responsibility, which may influence their interest in the consumption of environmental news and future engagement. In addition, there are factors, such as political issues, that can influence moral values and engagement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Every country has objectives for climate change, and public policies are implemented to achieve those commitments. This paper aims to review the different public policies used to promote the integration of photovoltaic technology into smart grids, taking the case of Portugal as reference. An analysis of previous supporting policies is performed both in Portugal and some European countries; these policies consist of feed-in tariffs, feed-in premiums, green certificates, electricity compensation, direct capital subsidies, and tax credits. The policies currently in force in Portugal no longer aim to support the technology; instead, they intend to promote it. Energy communities, local markets, and solar auctions are examples of public policies that are currently being used, not only to promote PV power but also the development of microgrids. Finally, the Portuguese solar auctions of 2019 and 2020 are analyzed and compared. It is concluded that auctions are a very effective way of expanding the installed capacity of the PV technology in the country and have more weight on promoting the technology than other promoting policies currently being used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities are complex systems with a key role in economic development and in improving the environmental sustainability of nations. Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of urban systems is fundamental to designing relevant policies and initiatives. Urban metabolism characterization may provide a holistic framework for analyzing urban systems in the context of the broader national metabolism. This paper provides a methodology to characterize the metabolism of an urban area, such as the Lisbon metropolitan area, taking as a source of data the socioeconomic metabolism of the country. The national metabolism is established by computing physical input-output tables. The downscaling to the urban level is accomplished with a variety of sector-specific parameters, from which an urban mass balance is established for a set of economic activities. The results obtained for the case study of Portugal and the city of Lisbon suggest that the share of services and the type of manufacturing industries in the economic structure of Lisbon, together with the higher resource productivity in the most representative economic sectors, are key aspects of the metabolism that contribute to Lisbon having higher overall resource productivity. The representation of the metabolism flows revealed key differences between the supply chains of Lisbon and the national flows, as well as a strong dependence of the Lisbon economy on material flows from other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the cement industry continues to address its role in the climate crisis, Portugal's cement industry has started to calculate its net CO2 emissions to become an entirely carbon neutral sector. These emissions are calculated by simply subtracting the total CO2 uptake due to mortar and concrete carbonation from the total CO2 that is emitted during the calcination process (clinker production). However, the procedures given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventories to report GHG emissions do not contain any element that would grant this calculation method the status of an internationally recognized procedure. Therefore, some climate models are not accurate because they do not account for the carbon dioxide uptake due to concrete and mortar carbonation, as is evidenced in this paper. Climate models have improved since the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), but they can further improve by implementing carbon dioxide uptake by cement-based materials. In the present paper, a quick and easy method of evaluating net CO2 emissions is utilized (simplified method) along with an advanced method. Portuguese net CO2 emissions of the cement produced from 2005 to 2015 were calculated while taking carbon dioxide uptake during the service-life and end-of-life and secondary usage stages into account. Following the simplified method, 8.7 million tons of carbon dioxide were found to be uptake by mortars and concretes made with Portuguese cement over the ten-year period, in which 37.8 million tons were released due to the calcination process. In addition, an advanced method has been used to estimate the carbon dioxide uptake, which provided only slightly higher results than that of the simplified method (9.1 million tons). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the long-term grid-point rainfall trends in the context of climate change, recent regionalised rainfall decline and drought events for mainland Portugal, which is teleconnected, in most cases, to the trends of mathematical descriptions of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the century from October 1919 to September 2019. Grid-point rainfall dataset (1919–2019, from 126 centroids in a regular mesh over the country) have been constructed from high-quality ground-based data and as such, it provides a reliable source for the analysis of rainfall trends at different timescales: October–December, January–March, December–March, and the hydrological year. The Mann–Kendall (MK) coupled with Sen's slope estimator test are applied to quantify the trends. The Sequential Mann–Kendall (SQMK) analysis is implemented to obtain the fluctuation of the progressive trends along the studied 100-year period. Because of their pivotal role in linking and synchronising climate variability, teleconnections to the North Atlantic Ocean are also explored to explain the rainfall trends over the Portuguese continuum. The results provide a solid basis to explain the climate change effects on the Portuguese rainfall based on significant associations with strong negative correlations between changes in rainfall and in NAO indices. These strong opposing correlations are displayed in most of the winter seasons and in the year. After the late 1960s, a generalised rainfall decrease emerges against a background of significant upward trends of the NAO; such coupled behaviour has persisted for decades. Regionalised droughts at three identified climatic regions, based on factor analysis and Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), are also discussed, concluding that the frequency of severe droughts may increase again, accompanied by a stronger influence of the recently more positive and unusual winter season and annual NAO indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When climate change became a global concern in the 1980s, mitigation was considered the best strategy to address all challenges. For a long time, it was thought possible to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which, according to many experts, brought on an unfit adaptation. There are international agreements designed to significantly reduce CO2 emissions and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, but the policy measures taken so far are insufficient to achieve this goal. In addition, the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the relevance of placing this issue at the core of international policies and the need for bottom-up measures and options. The purpose of this paper is to explore how collaborative planning can contribute to adapting the urban tourism sector to climate change in the Porto Metropolitan Area (PMA), located in the northern region of mainland Portugal. In this investigation, we used mixed methods based on the following: (1) the discussion of urban tourism's adaptation planning to climate change with undergraduate students; (2) the application of a modified Delphi questionnaire survey, to 47 international researchers and technicians in the first round and 35 international researchers and technicians in the second round, about the predictability of the adaptation measures; and (3) a theoretical-practical workshop aimed to discuss the main action intentions and ways of adaptation in the short and medium term. All empirical data were collected during the year of 2021. This research highlights the need for more detailed information, the weak interaction between stakeholders and the limitation of resources. Our research identifies the main impacts and local vulnerabilities and determines priorities for adaptation and implementation of actions, aimed at mitigating the effects of climate change and maintaining tourism attractiveness in urban areas. In addition, this investigation allowed the definition of a research agenda, which seeks to guide the area of tourism climatology regarding the new challenges imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In addition to the possible contributions of buildings to mitigating CO2 emissions, increased attention is being paid to the potential impacts of climate change on urban environments. According to the United Nations, about 54% of the planet's population currently lives in cities, but this percentage is expected to rise to 66% in 2050, which reveals the scale of this issue. This paper develops a reflection on the possible contributions of water-related building installations to mitigate emissions and increase urban area adaptation to the effects of climate change. One of the most promising solutions to facing climate change, which is analysed in detail in this paper, is combining rainwater harvesting systems with green roofs. However, in view of developing the necessary engineering projects, there are insufficient existing studies to estimate the parameters to be used in each location given their climate characteristics, particularly the monthly runoff coefficients, which constitute the key parameter for designing these installations in some regions. Some recent standards present generic theoretical values for designing these combined installations, but they are far from reality in some regions, such as the Mediterranean basin. Therefore, based on the data available in Portugal, this paper reports some of the results obtained from research on the values of the monthly runoff coefficients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A sustainable use of active heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems is crucial for minimum energy consumption. Currently, research studies are increasingly applying adaptive setpoint temperatures, thus reducing considerably the energy consumption without influencing comfort levels excessively. Most of them, however, are focused on the limit values of adaptive comfort standards without considering the tolerance in users' adaptation capacity. This research study analyzed various tolerance ranges in the recent adaptive thermal comfort model from EN 16798-1:2019 used in setpoint temperatures. The study focused on the south of Europe, considering 47 cities in Spain, 18 cities in Portugal, 13 cities in Greece, and 20 cities in Italy. In addition, such cities were analyzed in three climate scenarios: present time, 2050, and 2100. The results showed that values prefixed by EN 16798-1:2019 for new buildings (tolerance of 0.00 °C) produced significant savings with respect to the static model and that each progressive improvement in users' thermal expectations in 0.25 °C increased the energy consumption between 6.57 and 9.31% in all scenarios analyzed. Even applying a thermal tolerance of 1.50 °C, energy savings are currently produced with respect to the static model. This tendency increases in future scenarios until a thermal tolerance of 1.75 °C. The results of this paper provide greater knowledge about the possible energy increase that the improvement in users' expectations would produce. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes the temporal patterns of rainfed cereal phenology extracted from the GIMMS NDVI3g dataset in the main cereal-growing regions under a Mediterranean climate in Spain, Portugal, France and Italy during the period 1982–2022. The series before and after the beginning of the 21st century were analyzed separately. Phenological parameters were extracted using the modified dynamic threshold method, and their trends were analyzed. Correlation analyses were performed to study the relationships among these parameters and to analyze the influence of hydroclimatic variables on the start (SOS) and end (EOS) of the growing season. Results showed a temporal reversal in phenological trends between both study periods, coinciding with the global warming hiatus. In the first period (1982–2002), SOS and EOS advanced (−7.5 and −3.1 days, respectively), and the length of growing season (LOS) increased. However, during the second stage (2003–2022), SOS and EOS were delayed (7.5 and 1.7 days, respectively), and LOS decreased. Similar dynamics were observed for the influence of the hydroclimatic variables on SOS and EOS, stronger in the first period and weaker in the second. This study provides valuable information on the phenological dynamics of rainfed cereals that may be useful for their management and planning in climate change scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and human interventions can boost wildfires. Although naturally happening, massive events are becoming more frequent and severe. In Portugal's mainland, many rural settlements are populated mainly by older people, and uninhabited houses are frequently poorly conserved. This combination leaves the Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI) dangerously exposed to the fires. Pursuing the understanding of WUI areas, this study applies the Wildland–Urban Interface Index (WUIX) assessment methodology to an area severely affected by the massive 2017 wildfire of Pedrógão Grande, Leiria, Portugal. The primary objective of this study was to compare the results from WUIX with the areas burned during the fire event. As a result, maps of WUI effect were generated, visually pointing to villages with higher severity compared to the others. A statistical analysis was performed in three villages from the region to validate the results by comparing the accuracy of the results obtained to the actual damages. The results point out a high correlation between the WUIX and the real scenario despite the apparent challenges in determining the variations in different types of fire effect. Finally, the WUIX results align with the data from the Pedrógão Grande wildfire, showing that some are promising in conjunction with other wildfire indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind power has been increasing its participation in electricity markets in many countries around the world. Due to its economical and environmental benefits, wind power generation is one of the most powerful technologies to deal with global warming and climate change. However, as wind power grows, uncertainty in power supply increases due to wind intermittence. In this context, accurate wind power scenarios are needed to guide decision-making in power systems. In this paper, a novel methodology to generate realistic wind power scenarios for the long term is proposed. Unlike most of the literature that tackles this problem, this paper is focused on the generation of realistic wind power production scenarios in the long term. Moreover, spatial-temporal dependencies in multi-area markets have been considered. The results show that capturing the dependencies at the monthly level could improve the quality of scenarios at different time scales. In addition, an evaluation at different time scales is needed to select the best approach in terms of the distribution functions of the generated scenarios. To evaluate the proposed methodology, several tests have been made using real data of wind power generation for Spain, Portugal and France. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the long time horizon typically characterizing forest planning, uncertainty plays an important role when developing forest management plans. Especially important is the uncertainty related to recently human-induced global warming since it has a clear impact on forest capacity to contribute to biogenic and anthropogenic ecosystem services. If the forest manager ignores uncertainty, the resulting forest management plan may be sub-optimal, in the best case. This paper presents a methodology to incorporate uncertainty due to climate change into forest management planning. Specifically, this paper addresses the problem of harvest planning, i.e., defining which stands are to be cut in each planning period in order to maximize expected net revenues, considering several climate change scenarios. This study develops a solution approach for a planning problem for a eucalyptus forest with 1000 stands located in central Portugal where expected future conditions are anticipated by considering a set of climate scenarios. The model including all the constraints that link all the scenarios and spatial adjacency constraints leads to a very large problem that can only be solved by decomposing it into scenarios. For this purpose, we solve the problem using Progressive Hedging (PH) algorithm, which decomposes the problem into scenario sub-problems easier to solve. To analyze the performance of PH versus the use of the extensive form (EF), we solve several instances of the original problem using both approaches. Results show that PH outperforms the EF in both solving time and final optimality gap. In addition, the use of PH allows to solve the most difficult problems while the commercial solvers are not able to solve the EF. The approach presented allows the planner to develop more robust management plans that incorporate the uncertainty due to climate change in their plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, occurrences of heat waves and drought have become increasingly frequent, highlighting the undeniable impact of climate change. The rise in temperatures and decline in rainfall have had severe repercussions on olive trees' behavior and olive oil production. This study aims to evaluate the effects of two-year climate variations on olive oils from centenarian olive trees situated in the Côa Valley region of Northern Portugal. A selection of 25 centenarian plants was made, and the climate influence on fatty acid content, tocopherols, individual phenols, oxidative stability, and antioxidant activity was assessed over two consecutive years. During the second year of the study, a significant variation (p-value < 0.05) in the proportion of palmitic acid was observed, which increased from 12.9% to 13.6%. Conversely, stearic and arachidic acids exhibited a decrease from 2.7% to 2.3% and from 0.37% to 0.35%, respectively. Analysis of the oils revealed a noteworthy difference (p-value < 0.05) in the concentration of β-tocopherol. The concentration of oils derived from hydroxytyrosol and tyrosol significantly decreases (p-value < 0.005) during the second year. Additionally, significant differences (p-value < 0.005) were observed in the total phenol content and the percentage of ABTS inhibition, both of which decreased in the second year. These findings reinforce the notion that climatic conditions play a key role in shaping the composition of olive oils. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to affect the agricultural sector in ways that are often unclear to predict. If in the short- and medium-terms farmers may adapt to climate change by adjusting their agricultural practices, in the long-term, these adjustments may become insufficient, forcing farmers to change their farming systems. The extent and direction in which these farming system transitions will occur is still a subject that is underexplored in the literature. We propose a new framework to explore the effect of climate change on the choice of farming system while controlling the effect of other drivers that are also known to influence the farming system choice. Using a spatially explicit farming system choice model developed by a previous study in an extensive agricultural region of southern Portugal, we applied a space-for-time approach to simulate the effect of climate change on the future dynamics of the farming systems in the study area. The results suggest that climate change will force many farmers to change the farming system in a foreseeable future. The extent of the projected changes in farming systems is likely to trigger significant social, economic, and environmental impacts, which should require early attention from policy makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Future Museums Project Group was created under the Portuguese Ministry of Culture with the mission of proposing recommendations for a 10-year public policy for museums, palaces, and monuments, considering sustainability, accessibility, and innovation issues and their relevance in society. Against this background, museums were understood as agents of change with a role to play in achieving a more sustainable future, and culture as a fundamental pillar for democracy and sustainable development. This study discusses the findings of the project, focusing on three features that highlight the approach adopted to sustainability, which included collections management, participation, and mediation. Drawn from empirical research, a series of concrete recommendations, both for policy makers and museums, are discussed. The study concludes by arguing that cultural policies must place sustainability at the core of their strategy in order to function as a framework to drive and implement sustainable development practices in museums and heritage. Furthermore, within the scope of post-pandemic recovery plans, climate emergency, and the energy crisis, it is even more pressing that cultural policies provide support for museums and heritage and ensure that they have the conditions and resources to be able to move forward in a more integrated manner, thus contributing to a sustainable future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper summarizes the results from microclimatic monitoring of the impacts related to the construction and exploration phase of a hydroelectric powerplant in the upper Douro River (Portugal). Reference climatic elements for both periods were obtained and the impacts of the reservoir water mass on the region's microclimate were evaluated. For this purpose, Sen's slope estimate non-parametric test was used to detect the meteorological variables' trends over 10 years, considering the division into the construction (2011–2015) and exploration (2016–2020) phases. A network of meteorological stations located close to the dam, in addition to a control station relatively distant from the dam, was used to collect the meteorological data. The control station is still integrated into the same regional climatic context but not exposed to the direct influence of the resulting reservoirs. As a result, temporal differences were determined for temperature and relative humidity. The results show a statistically significant increase in the minimum relative humidity, accompanied by a statistically significant decrease in the daily and seasonal temperature amplitudes between the construction and the exploration phase periods. These outcomes thereby suggest that large reservoirs affect the local climate and may create new microclimates, in the surrounding area, with both positive and negative potential effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grasslands are key elements of the global agricultural system, covering around two-thirds of all agricultural areas and playing an important role in biodiversity conservation, food security, and balancing the carbon cycle. Climate change is a growing challenge for the agricultural sector and may threaten grasslands. To address these challenges, it is vital to conduct in-depth climate studies to understand the vulnerability of grasslands. In this study, machine learning was used to build an advanced model able to evaluate the future impact of climate change on grassland vigour. The objective was to identify the most vulnerable grassland areas, analyse the interaction between climate and grassland performance, and outline management strategies against the detrimental implications of climate change. A Random Forest (RF) regression was used to model the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) using the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The model explained 76% of the NDVI variability. The foremost significant predictors of grassland vigour are the SPEI with temporal lags of 1, 4, and 12 months. These findings suggest that the vegetative status of grasslands exhibits high sensitivity to short-term drought while also being influenced by the memory of past climatic events over longer periods. Future projections indicate an overall reduction in grassland vigour, mostly in RCP8.5. The results indicate that negative effects will be more pronounced in mountainous regions, which currently host the most vigorous grasslands. Dry lowlands in the north should continue to have the lowest vigour in the future. A substantial reduction in vigour is expected in autumn, with an effect on grassland phenology. The development of grasslands in winter, favoured by increasing temperatures and precipitation, can advance the harvesting of grassland (cutting) and the grazing of livestock. To ensure that vigour is maintained in less favourable zones, adaptation measures will be needed, as well as more efficient management of highlands to provide an adequate level of production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate and land-use changes have been contributing to the increase in the occurrence of extreme wildfires, shifting fire regimes and driving desertification, particularly in Mediterranean-climate regions. However, few studies have researched the influence of land use/cover on fire regimes and carbon storage at the broad national scale. To address this gap, we used spatially explicit data from annual burned areas in mainland Portugal to build a typology of fire regimes based on the accumulated burned area and its temporal concentration (Gini Index) between 1984 and 2019. This typology was then combined with carbon stock data and different landscapes to explore relationships between landscape types and two important ecosystem services: wildfire reduction and carbon stock. Multivariate analyses were performed on these data and the results revealed a strong relationship between landscapes dominated by maritime pine and eucalypt plantations and highly hazardous fire regimes, which in turn hold the highest carbon stocks. Shrubland and mixed landscapes were associated with low carbon stocks and less hazardous fire regimes. Specialized agricultural landscapes, as well as mixed native forests and mixed agroforestry landscapes, were the least associated with wildfires. In the case of agricultural landscapes, however, this good wildfire performance is achieved at the cost of the poorest carbon stock, whereas native forests and agroforestry landscapes strike the best trade-off between carbon stock and fire regime. Our findings support how nature-based solutions promoting wildfire mitigation and carbon stock ecosystem services may prevent and revert land degradation harming Mediterranean regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire is the origin of serious environmental and social impacts in Mediterranean-like landscapes, such as those in California, Australia, and southern Europe. Portugal is one of the southern European countries most affected by fire, which has increased in intensity and extent in the recent decades in response to variations in climate, but mostly due to changes in land systems (LSs), characterized by land use and land cover and also by factors such as management intensity, livestock composition, land ownership structure, and demography. Agricultural activities, which contributed to the management of fuel in the overall landscape, were allocated to the most productive areas, while the steepest areas were occupied by extensive areas of shrubland and monospecific forests, creating landscapes of high fire-proneness. These challenging circumstances call for landscape transformation actions focusing on reducing the burned area, but the spatial distribution of LS is highly conditioned by land morphology (LM), which limits the actions (e.g., farming operations) that can be taken. Considering the constraints posed by the LM, this study investigates whether there is a possibility of transforming the landscape by single modifying the LS from more to less fire prone. To better understand landscape–fire relationships, the individual and interactive effects of the LS and LM on burned areas were also analyzed. Even in the more fire-prone LM types, a 40% proportion of agricultural uses in the landscape results in an effective reduction in the burned area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Community Intervention and Empowerment Assessment Model (MAIEC) offers a framework for community empowerment in several fields such as Climate Change (CC), the largest health emergency crisis globally, through diagnosis and interventions in Community Health Nursing. This study aims to assess the level of community empowerment in climate change mitigation and adaptation, and to identify nursing diagnosis through the MAIEC clinical decision matrix, within a local intermunicipal association in the northern region of the Portuguese Atlantic Coast. A convergent mixed-methods design was used, applying a focus group technique to a purposive sampling of ten key stakeholders of this community. A Portuguese version of the Empowerment Assessment Rating Scale and a questionnaire were both applied to the same participants, and qualitative and quantitative data generated were analysed using a content analysis technique and an Excel database sheet created using Microsoft Office 365. The analysis of the Portuguese northern community exposed: a low level of community empowerment for mitigation and adaptation to climate change; a nursing diagnosis of community management impairments in several dimensions, such as community process, community participation and community leadership. However, the study confirmed that MAIEC contributed to future community-based solutions, responding to the challenges of climate change, and enabling the planning of interventions to address MAIEC diagnoses in the form of CC-specific training and recommendations for new cooperation approaches from all stakeholders. This study was not registered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Almond production plays a very significant role in the Portuguese socio-economic context, especially with regard to dried fruit production. Indeed, Portugal is the third largest almond producer in Europe, producing 41,450 t of almonds in shells in 2021. This is due to its edaphoclimatic conditions that are favorable for its production. Traditionally, the north region of "Trás-os-Montes" has stood out as one of the most relevant for Portuguese almond production and bioeconomy. However, production in "Alentejo" and "Beira Interior" will surpass the northern region in a short time as a result of the installation of new orchards. Despite its importance, there is a need to uncover genetic traits underlying phenotypic desirable traits needed to improve yield and quality but also cope and mitigate the impacts of climate change on their production. To address this, it is important to characterize the genetic resources available and the germplasm collection since they are crucial players for conservation and breeding initiatives. In this review, we describe the main cultivars of almonds cultivated in Portugal and their productive challenges. We also provide an overview of the main genetic resources available, breeding goals, and accomplishments regarding their improvement towards biotic and abiotic constraints in both Portugal and the rest of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, the climate is undoubtedly one of the main threats to the sustainability of olive orchards, especially in the case of rainfed traditional production systems. Local warming, droughts, and extreme weather events are some of the climatological factors responsible for environmental thresholds in relation to crops being exceeded. The main objective of this study was to investigate the influence of microclimatic variability on the productivity of traditional olive orchards in a municipality located in northeastern Portugal. For this purpose, official data on climate, expressed through agro-bioclimatic indicators, and olive productivity for a 21-year historical period (2000–2020) were used to evaluate potential correlations. In addition, a comprehensive regression analysis involving the dataset and the following modeling scenarios was carried out to develop regression models and assess the resulting predictions: (a) Random Forest (RF) with selected features; (b) Ordinary Least-Squares (OLS) with selected features; (c) OLS with correlation features; and (d) OLS with all features. For the a and b scenarios, features were selected applying the Recursive Feature Elimination with Cross-Validation (RFECV) technique. The best statistical performance was achieved considering nonlinearity among variables (a scenario, R2 = 0.95); however, it was not possible to derive any model given the underlying methodology to this scenario. In linear regression applications, the best fit between model predictions and the real olive productivity was obtained when all the analyzed agro-bioclimatic indicators were included in the regression (d scenario, R2 = 0.85). When selecting only the most relevant indicators using RFECV and correlation techniques, moderate correlations for the b and c regression scenarios were obtained (R2 of 0.54 and 0.49, respectively). Based on the research findings, especially the regression models, their adaptability to other olive territories with similar agronomic and environmental characteristics is suggested for crop management and regulatory purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and related events, such as rising temperatures and extreme weather, threaten population health and well-being. This study quantified the impact of climate change on temperature-related, cause-specific mortality while considering adaptations and future demographic changes in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal. A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was applied to quantify the burden of temperature-related mortality during the present (or reference, 1986–2005) scenario and a future scenario (2046–2065). There was an increase of 0.33% in temperature-related excess mortality (95% CI: 0.02 to 0.59) and significantly lower all-cause deaths in the future. These measurements were attributable to extreme cold and considered an adaptation threshold of 1 °C with no population changes, resulting in an estimated net difference of −0.15% (95% CI: −0.26 to −0.02), a threshold of 1 °C with a high population scenario of −0.15% (95% CI: −0.26 to −0.01), and a threshold of 1 °C with a low population scenario of −0.15% (95% CI: −0.26 to −0.01). Moderate cold exposure under a threshold of 1 °C and a high population scenario reduced future temperature-related deaths and diabetes mellitus (−1.32, 95% CI: −2.65 to 0.23). Similarly, moderate heat exposure under a threshold of 4 °C and a high population scenario had the highest increase in net changes (6.75, 95% CI: −5.06 to 15.32). The net difference in AF% was due to ischemic heart disease, which was the highest for moderate heat exposure with an adaptation threshold of 4 °C only. It decreased slightly with increasing adaptation levels. The most significant increase in net differences for temperature-related excess deaths occurred in respiratory diseases and was associated with heat. A significant decline in net differences was also observed in excess cold-related deaths due to respiratory disease. These findings contribute to the discussion of how climate change impacts human health. Furthermore, they can help guide and monitor adaptation policies in response to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The correct calculation of forces and moments caused by wave action over crown wall structures is critical for their design. There are several existing equations for this, some of which are sanctioned in practice as it is the case for Jensen (1984) and Bradbury et al. (1998), Günback and Gökce (1984), Martin et al. (1999), Berenguer and Baonza (2006), and Pedersen (1996) and Nørgaard et al. (2013). These equations are the main tool for the design of breakwater crown walls and their accuracy is crucial to ensure the stability of the crown wall, especially when considering the sea level rise due to climate change and the possible damage of the armor, since both aspects are not usually considered in most original design studies. In a scenario of climate change, it is very important to estimate the possible changes in security factors due to both these aspects, comparing the results with the original design ones. This paper has as main objective to analyze it for the case study of Ericeira rubble mound breakwater in Portugal. For this, a comparison of the results using those equations and different scenarios including the current, considering sea level rise and armor damage, were performed to extract some conclusions: the increase in the sea level in the case study was not significant and therefore its incidence is very small; and the damage to the main armor by losing pieces at the berm is much more important in this case study, so it is essential to carry out the proper maintenance of the design section. On the other hand, horizontal forces are more conservative using Pedersen and Nørgaard equations, obtaining the lowest value with Martin. Regarding uplift pressures, Martin gives the lowest value, while the most conservative values are given by Günbak and Gökce's for two scenarios, and Pedersen and Nørgaard for the other two scenarios. Furthermore, the sliding safety coefficient is more conditioning than overturning the safety coefficient in all the scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to increase water productivity at the Collective Irrigation System (CIS) level it is crucial to adapt the existing irrigation infrastructure, enhancing water intake at the source, as well as its transport and delivery efficiency. Rehabilitation may involve structural changes and thus, a large capital investment. This investment should be proportionate to the increase in climate resilience associated to different rehabilitation alternatives. A methodology framework was developed to evaluate CIS resilience to climate change considering different rehabilitation alternatives. The assessed components were: (i) crop production systems; (ii) on-farm irrigation systems; and (iii) project rehabilitation alternatives for the conveyance and distribution of the irrigation water from the source to the farmer fields. This framework was applied to the Maiorga CIS, in central Portugal, to test the methodology performance in assessing the impacts of climate change on the supply-demand balance of the proposed rehabilitation alternatives and to evaluate their climate resilience, for the representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and two time periods, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. For each scenario, period, and rehabilitation alternative, irrigation requirements at the source (demand) and stream flows (supply) were computed and the supply-demand balance was performed. Projected increases in irrigation water demand varied between 5.5% for RCP4.5/2071–2100 and 35.7% for RCP8.5/2071–2100. For RCP4.5, 11% (2050) and 9% (2080) reductions in irrigation water supply were projected, while for RCP8.5 the reduction ranges between 13% (2050) and 30% (2080). The proposed framework determined that the rehabilitation alternatives considering just one type of water source, without flow regularization and with open channel distribution to the farmer's field, have proved to be unviable due to low resilience to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change could have a significant impact on buildings if its effects are not properly recognized. The consequences of climate action should be considered at the design and maintenance planning stage, with the objective of promoting the overall durability of constructions. Portugal, being part of the Mediterranean region, Southern Europe, and the Iberian Peninsula, and sometimes highlighted in projections as a critical area, is an example of a country considerably vulnerable to climate change impacts. The climate is expected to become warmer and drier, with a substantial rise in temperature and fall in precipitation by the end of the century. What implications will these changes have on the degradation of façades? Climate agents, such as temperature, solar radiation, humidity, precipitation, and wind, directly influence the performance of external claddings that protect internal building components. Cement render is the prevalent façade cladding in Portugal and Europe. Research to assess the risks of future climate-induced degradation on rendered façades is relevant in the context of buildings' durability and adaptation to climate change. The objective of the present research was to define expectations about the impact of a progressively warmer and drier climate on the degradation of exterior cement renders, based on an analysis of related literature. Generally, less staining and more cracking are expected. Expectations about salt weathering and loss of adhesion are more uncertain and need further research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the impact that climate change is having on our planet and considering its consequences for future generations, much of the academic literature focuses on adolescent and adult perceptions, giving little relevance to children's perceptions. Children's voices have the potential to influence public opinion, which may in turn determine the direction of a new policy on the climate crisis. In this context, it is urgent that we understand how children perceive this problem. This quantitative study was based on the application of 245 questionnaires to children aged between 9 and 13 years old from five schools in north-eastern Portugal, more specifically in the region of Trás-os-Montes. We can say that this study was a convenience study because we delivered the surveys in the schools closest to the working area of the researchers. We used a questionnaire with 26 questions, 24 of which had closed responses (like the Likert type), one open response, and one with multiple choices. In this work, we conducted a descriptive and inferential statistical analysis, and prepared a database, using the statistical software IBM SPSS, which allowed us to conduct some statistical tests, selected according to variables. For the descriptive analysis, several parameters were used for the distribution of variables, namely, frequency, percentage, mean, and standard deviation. We rejected the null hypothesis (H0) and assumed for the inferential analysis that the sample does not follow a normal distribution, considering the fulfillment of the necessary criteria for parametric tests and after performing the Kolmogorov–Smirnov normality test, whose null hypothesis (H0) is that data are normally distributed, and given that the p-value for the variables under study was p < 0.05. In this regard, non-parametric tests were used. The Mann–Whitney test was used to compare the degree of agreement with climate change statements as a function of the student's gender and year of schooling, which is a non-parametric test suitable for comparing the distribution functions of an ordinal variable measured in two independent samples. The results show that most of the children expressed concern about the study's potential problem, and (42%) said they are concerned about climate change. However, they show some doubts and a lack of knowledge about some of the themes, like (33.5%) cannot name only one consequence of climate change. We also found differences between the two study cycles, with children in the 6th grade having a higher average in their understanding of the phenomenon (p = 0.049), as well as the level of education of the parents being positively correlated with a more ecocentric posture, we can see this when we considering the variable parents. We also found that 46.6% of the students say that television is where they learn more about climate change. From the results obtained, we can open new paths for future research and contribute to the definition of policies and educational practices since the school has the responsibility to cooperate in the production of values, attitudes, and pro-environmental behaviors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

European countries recently prepared recovery and resilience plans (RRPs) to recover from the pandemic crisis and reach climate neutrality. Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) are recognized as crucial drivers to fostering climate transition while addressing other challenges. Accordingly, RRPs offer the opportunity to promote the adoption of NBS. This article assesses the NBS embeddedness in the policy discourse of Italian and Portuguese RRPs and how they are considered to meet climate–and related environmental–targets. We conducted a discourse analysis based on two steps, (i) a quantitative analysis to classify different nature-related terms into four categories—biophysical elements, general environmental concepts, threats and challenges, and NBS—and estimate their frequency in the text; (ii) a qualitative analysis to understand the relationship between the categories of challenges and NBS as well as the dedicated investments. The results show that NBS are barely mentioned, with a frequency in the texts for the NBS category of 0.04% and 0.01%, respectively, in Italian and Portuguese RRPs. Narratives are mainly built around general concepts such as resilience and sustainability with nature scarcely considered as an ex novo solution to meet challenges. Notwithstanding, Italy invests 330 M in the implementation of urban forests, while in Portugal, no specific NBS interventions have been considered so far. To date, both countries are primarily orienting the climate transition toward reducing emissions instead of combining these measures with multifunctional NBS to address environmental and socio-economic challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy sustainability represents an important research topic for aiding decreasing energy dependence and slowing down climate changes. In this context, solutions using thermal energy storage through rock start to emerge, due to its natural benefits, when compared to more polluting alternatives. To understand whether a rock material can be considered a good thermal energy storage material for such solutions, it is necessary to evaluate the physical, chemical and thermal properties of such materials. Therefore, it becomes essential to understand how heat propagates in the rock and how voids influence the thermal properties. To achieve these goals, hematite ore from Moncorvo, Northeastern Portugal was used, in particular, to study the effect of grain size on thermal properties for three different sized lots. Chemical and physical changes between heated and unheated lots were detected using X-ray diffraction and particle size, as well as X-ray fluorescence analysis. Regarding thermal properties, a hot wire method approach was used with seven thermocouples. Additionally, a thermal inversion model to simulate the heat exchanges was also proposed, allowing changing the properties of the constituents, to fit the theoretical and experimental temperature curve. Furthermore, the model reveals how heat propagates inside the reservoir filled with hematite ore. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The chestnut tree is an important forestry species worldwide, as well as a valuable food resource. Over recent years, Portugal has shown an increasing trend in chestnut tree area, as well as increases in production, hinting at the socioeconomic relevance of this agro-forestry species. In this study, bioclimatic indices are applied to analyse the spatial distribution of chestnut trees in mainland Portugal, namely growing degree days (GDD; 1900–2400 °C), annual mean temperature (AMT; 8–15 °C), summer days with maximum temperature below 32 °C (NTX), and annual precipitation (PRE; 600–1600 mm). These indices are assessed for the baseline (IBERIA01, 1989–2005) and future climates (EURO-CORDEX: 2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2061–2080) under two forcing pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), also taking into account the chestnut tree land cover. For the baseline, the GDD showed only 10% suitability for chestnut tree cultivation in southern Portugal, whereas much higher values are found in the north of the country, and at higher altitudes (50–90%). For the AMT, higher elevation areas in northern Portugal show almost 100% suitability. Concerning NTX, the suitability reduces from the west (100–90%) to the east (40%). Regarding PRE, the suitability is heterogeneous throughout the territory, with areas under 50%. A new Chestnut Suitability Index (CSI) was then computed, which incorporates information from the four previous indices. The CSI reveals a suitability ranging from 100 to 75% in the north, while central and southern Portugal show values from 25 to 50%. For future climates, a progressive reduction in CSI was found, particularly for RCP8.5 and in the long-term period. Changes in bioclimatic conditions may restrict the 100% suitability to a narrow area in the north of the country. These reductions in chestnut bioclimatic suitability may have socio-economic and ecological implications for the management of the important agro-forestry species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main objective of the present work was to review the current knowledge about the factors that influence the different phases of the natural regeneration of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton) and propose scientifically based management schedules. The review focused on the natural regeneration of maritime pine within its most representative areas (Portugal, Spain, and France). First, a brief characterisation of the main phases of the natural regeneration of maritime pine is described. Next, information on the factors affecting the natural regeneration of the species is provided, highlighting its positive and negative effects. Finally, management proposals are presented to promote the natural regeneration of maritime pine species. Numerous factors influencing the natural regeneration of maritime pine were identified. Fires and climatic factors can intervene in all three regeneration phases (seeding, germination, and seedling survival and development). The natural regeneration failure of maritime pine species can be aggravated in drier scenarios. Forest management plays an important role as it can promote the natural regeneration of the species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The south of Portugal is one of the regions that will be most affected by the impacts of climate change (CC), with an expected increase in water scarcity. Irrigated super-intensive olive orchards occupy a large area of the used agricultural surface in the Alentejo region, south of Portugal, making it necessary to adapt this crop to the effects of CC. This study assessed the impacts of CC and defined adaptation measures concerning irrigation management of the super-intensive olive orchard. To compute the crop irrigation requirement (CIR), the soil water balance model ISAREG was combined with climate data relative to the reference period 1971–2000 and to the representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100. The growing degree-days (GDD) approach was used to estimate olive phenology for these CC scenarios. Unchanged irrigation management with an average CIR increase up to 16% in RCP4.5 and 31% in RCP8.5 is expected. By adopting higher levels of water deficit, water savings of up to 22% can be realized. The results showed that the anticipated CIR increase for the CC scenarios can be mitigated through regulated deficit irrigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Corruption reflects a set of illegal activities that jeopardize the smooth functioning of economies, society, and climate and environmental issues. This article tests the relationships between economic growth, corruption, renewable energies, international trade, and carbon dioxide emissions using panel data for European countries, namely Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland, and Greece, from 1995–2015. As an econometric strategy, this research uses the panel fully modified least squares (FMOLS), panel dynamic least squares (DOLS), and panel two-stage least squares estimator (TSLS). Considering the variables utilized in the research and the panel unit root test, we observed that the variables are integrated I (1) in the first difference. The variables of corruption, economic growth, renewable energies, international trade, and carbon dioxide emissions are cointegrated in the long run, using the Pedroni and Kao residual cointegration test arguments. The methodology of Dumitrescu–Hurlin to test the causality between carbon dioxide emissions, corruption, economic growth, and renewable energy shows that there is unidirectional causality between carbon dioxide emissions and corruption and economic growth and corruption. The results suggest that the corruption index and economic growth have a statistically significant positive impact on carbon dioxide emissions. However, renewable energies and international trade reduce climate change and improve the environmental quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative Soil Moisture (ESA CCI SM) product provides soil moisture estimates from radar satellite data with a daily temporal resolution. Despite validation exercises with ground data that have been performed since the product's launch, SM has not yet been consistently related to soil water storage, which is a key step for its application for prediction purposes. This study aimed to analyse the relationship between soil water storage (S), which was obtained from soil water balance computations with ground meteorological data, and soil moisture, which was obtained from radar data, as affected by soil water storage capacity (Smax). As a case study, a 14-year monthly series of soil water storage, produced via soil water balance computations using ground meteorological data from northeast Portugal and Smax from 25 mm to 150 mm, were matched with the corresponding monthly averaged SM product. Linear (I) and logistic (II) regression models relating S with SM were compared. Model performance (r2 in the 0.8–0.9 range) varied non-monotonically with Smax, with it being the highest at an Smax of 50 mm. The logistic model (II) performed better than the linear model (I) in the lower range of Smax. Improvements in model performance obtained with segregation of the data series in two subsets, representing soil water recharge and depletion phases throughout the year, outlined the hysteresis in the relationship between S and SM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pasture and forage production occupies a large part of the utilized agricultural area in Portugal, a country prone to the effects of climate change. This study aims at evaluating the impacts of climate change on forage irrigation requirements and at defining and assessing different adaptation measures. A second objective focuses on evaluating the impacts on water deficit of rainfed forages. This study was performed in a Lusitano horse stud farm located in Azambuja Municipality, Portugal. The climate change impacts on the crop irrigation requirements and crop water deficit were simulated using the soil water balance model, ISAREG. The reference period considered was 1971–2000 and the climate scenarios were the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 (2071–2100). The results show that the adaptation measure aiming at maximum production (several cuts) will increase the irrigation requirements in the different climate change scenarios between 38.4% and 67.1%. The adaptation measure aiming at reducing the water consumption (only one cut) will lead to a reduction in irrigation requirements in the different climate change scenarios, ranging between −31.1% and −64.0%. In rainfed conditions, the water deficit is substantially aggravated in the climate change scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extremal dependence or independence may occur among the components of univariate or bivariate random vectors. Assessing which asymptotic regime occurs and also its extent are crucial tasks when such vectors are used as statistical models for risk assessment in the field of Climatology under climate change conditions. Motivated by the poor resolution of current global climate models in North Atlantic Small Islands, the extremal dependence between a North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAOI) and rainfall was considered at multi-year dominance of negative and positive NAOI, i.e., −NAOI and +NAOI dominance subperiods, respectively. The datasets used (from 1948–2017) were daily NAOI, and three daily weighted regionalised rainfall series computed based on factor analysis and the Voronoi polygons method from 40 rain gauges in the small island of Madeira (∼740 km 2 ), Portugal. The extremogram technique was applied for measuring the extremal dependence within the NAOI univariate series. The cross-extremogram determined the dependence between the upper tail of the weighted regionalised rainfalls, and the upper and lower tails of daily NAOI. Throughout the 70-year period, the results suggest systematic evidence of statistical dependence over Madeira between exceptionally −NAOI records and extreme rainfalls, which is stronger in the −NAOI dominance subperiods. The extremal dependence for +NAOI records is only significant in recent years, however, with a still unclear +NAOI dominance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Paiva River catchment, located in Portugal, integrates the Natura 2000 network of European Union nature protection areas. Resorting to topography, climate and land-use data, a semi-distributed hydrological model (Hydrological Simulation Program–FORTRAN) was run in order to simulate the hydrological cycle of the river and its tributaries. The model was calibrated over a 25-year period and validated within a 31-year period. Its performance was verified by comparing the recorded and simulated daily flows. The values of the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency of 0.95 and 0.76, and coefficient of determination of 0.95 and 0.82, were achieved for calibration and validation, respectively, thus showing a quite satisfactory model performance. Subsequently, the climate change impacts on temperature and precipitation, as well as their extremes, and on the flowrates were also assessed for a future period (2041–2070) under two anthropogenic forcing scenarios (representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5). A procedure for selecting the most relevant metrics for assessing the ecological condition of the Paiva River was developed based upon a set of 52 invertebrate families sampled. Correspondence analyses were carried out for biological datasets (traits/metrics) with physicochemical and land use/land cover matrices separately. Out of all variables, water quality and flow and agriculture land use explained most of the variance observed. The integrated analysis undertaken in the present study is an important advance when compared to previous studies and it provides key information to stakeholders and decision-makers, particularly when planning suitable adaptation measures to cope with changing climates in the forthcoming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Iberian coastal cities are subject to significant risks in the next decades due to climate change-induced sea-level rise. These risks are quite uncertain depending on several factors. In this article, we estimate potential economic damage in 62 Iberian coastal cities from 2020 to 2100 using regional relative sea-level rise data under three representative concentration pathways (RCP 8.5, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6). We analyze the expected accumulated damage costs if no adaptation actions take place and compare this scenario to the investment cost of some adaptation strategies being implemented. The results show that some adaptation strategies are less costly than the potential damage under inaction. In other words, it is economically rational to invest in adaptation even in a context of high uncertainty. These calculations are very relevant to inform climate change adaptation decisions and to better manage the risk posed by sea-level rise. Moreover, our findings show the importance of a good understanding of the shape of the sea-level rise and damage cost distributions to calculate the expected damage. We show that using the 50th percentile for these calculations is not adequate as it leads to a serious underestimation of expected damage and coastal risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current linear economic system has led Europe to unsustainable development, aggravating several issues, such as climate change, limitation of resources, and pollution. As a sustainable alternative, circular economy (CE) has been promoted around the world. This economic system allows for the maximization of a product's life, thus decreasing its environmental impact and increasing its value. The main goal of this work is to scrutinise the concepts of CE over time, from the beginning of the concept, to its implementation in Europe and its application in Portugal. In addition, the requirement for strategies that led to studies on regional urban metabolism are addressed. Another goal is to examine Portugal and see how the country is dealing with the implementation of strategies for CE, moving from concept to practice. This part of the work resulted in the creation of the REMET-UA model, a tool to assess the regional economic metabolism, which also has the potential to evaluate synergies of materials in terms of fluxes between regions, maximizing the amount of information available at this scale for municipalities and enterprises to be used, having taken into account the purpose of circular economy. The results showed that REMET-UA is fully operational and corresponds to the goal for which the model was made. Future developments have been identified and are underway to improve the model and bring it as close to reality as possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water resources are impacted by several stressors like over-population and over consumption that compromises their availability. These stressors are expected to progressively intensify due to climate change in most regions of the world, with direct impact on watersheds and river systems. This study investigates the effect of different watershed pressure scenarios due to climate change in the hydrological regime of the Sorraia River basin, Portugal. This catchment includes one of the largest irrigated areas in the country, thus being strongly influenced by anthropogenic activities, associated to hydrological (irrigation, flow regulation, damming) and nutrient stressors. The Soil Water Assessment Tool has been used to simulate water flow and nutrient dynamics in the watershed while considering inputs from two climate models and three societal scenarios. Results have shown that the predicted rainfall reductions will have a significant impact on river flow and nutrient concentrations when compared to baseline conditions. River flow will expectably decrease by 75%, while nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations in river water will expectably increase by 500% and 200%, respectively. These differences are more evident for storylines that consider increasing pressures such as population growth and agricultural expansion marked with unsustainable practices and increased reliance on technology. The results of this study indicate a possible future outcome and provide effective guidelines for the formulation of water management policies to counter the impacts of climate change and corresponding environmental pressures in the Sorraia River basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]