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In this last paper in a series of four, we will enquire into key developments affecting economic growth in the near future, consider potential restructuring effects that current and future economic events could cause and survey suggestions from literature for long-term sustainability of growth trends. Discussing climate change, COVID-19 economic recovery, automation, and future growth with a view to global development, we explore where growth may take economies, and how we may foster growth in a rapidly changing international economic landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses an imminent physical risk to cultural heritage sites and their surrounding landscape through intensifying environmental processes such as damaging wetting and drying cycles that disrupt archaeological preservation conditions, and soil erosion which threatens to expose deposits and alter the archaeological context of sites. In the face of such threats, geospatial techniques such as GIS, remote sensing, and spatial modelling have proved invaluable tools for archaeological research and cultural heritage monitoring. This paper presents the application of secondary multi-source and multi-temporal geospatial data within a processing framework to provide a comprehensive assessment of geophysical risk to the Roman fort of Magna, Carvoran, UK. An investigation into the ancient hydraulic system at Magna was carried out with analysis of vegetation change over time, and spatio-temporal analysis of soil erosion risk at the site. Due to COVID-19 restrictions in place at the time of this study, these analyses were conducted using only secondary data with the aim to guide further archaeological research, and management and monitoring strategies for the stakeholders involved. Results guided inferences about the ancient hydraulic system, providing insights regarding how to better manage the site at Magna in the future. Analysis of soil erosion allowed the identification of hot spot areas, indicating a future increase in rates of erosion at Magna and suggesting a seasonal period of higher risk of degradation to the site. Results have proven that freely available multi-purpose national-scale datasets are sufficient to create meaningful insights into archaeological sites where physical access to the site is inhibited. This infers the potential to carry out preliminary risk assessment to inform future site management practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasingly, the potential short and long-term impacts of climate change on human health and wellbeing are being demonstrated. However, other environmental change factors, particularly relating to the natural environment, need to be taken into account to understand the totality of these interactions and impacts. This paper provides an overview of ongoing research in the Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) on Environmental Change and Health, particularly around the positive and negative effects of the natural environment on human health and well-being and primarily within a UK context. In addition to exploring the potential increasing risks to human health from water-borne and vector-borne diseases and from exposure to aeroallergens such as pollen, this paper also demonstrates the potential opportunities and co-benefits to human physical and mental health from interacting with the natural environment. The involvement of a Health and Environment Public Engagement (HEPE) group as a public forum of “critical friends” has proven useful for prioritising and exploring some of this research; such public involvement is essential to minimise public health risks and maximise the benefits which are identified from this research into environmental change and human health. Research gaps are identified and recommendations made for future research into the risks, benefits and potential opportunities of climate and other environmental change on human and planetary health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With evidence suggesting that climate change is resulting in changes within the hydrologic cycle, the ability to robustly model hydroclimatic response is critical. This paper assesses how extreme runoff—1:2- and 1:30-year return period (RP) events—may change at a regional level across the UK by the 2080s (2069–2098). Capturing uncertainty in the hydroclimatic modelling chain, flow projections were extracted from the EDgE (End-to-end Demonstrator for improved decision-making in the water sector in Europe) multi-model ensemble: five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) General Circulation Models and four hydrological models forced under emissions scenarios Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 (5 × 4 × 2 chains). Uncertainty in extreme value parameterisation was captured through consideration of two methods: generalised extreme value (GEV) and generalised logistic (GL). The method was applied across 192 catchments and aggregated to eight regions. The results suggest that, by the 2080s, many regions could experience large increases in extreme runoff, with a maximum mean change signal of +34% exhibited in East Scotland (1:2-year RP). Combined with increasing urbanisation, these estimates paint a concerning picture for the future UK flood landscape. Model chain uncertainty was found to increase by the 2080s, though extreme value (EV) parameter uncertainty becomes dominant at the 1:30-year RP (exceeding 60% in some regions), highlighting the importance of capturing both the associated EV parameter and ensemble uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been increasing recognition that climate change may lead to risk of summertime overheating in UK dwellings with potentially adverse consequences for human comfort and health. This paper investigates the magnitude of summertime overheating over one month in 2017, in four new flats built to identical thermal standards, with similar occupancy patterns and located in the same block in a development in Southeast England. Both static and adaptive methods were used to assess the overheating risk, while the variation in indoor temperatures across the flats was examined through key building characteristics including floor level, glazing orientation, exposed surface area to floor area ratio (SA/FA), glazing area to floor area ratio, and ventilation. Data collection included continuous monitoring of indoor and outdoor temperature, relative humidity, CO2 levels and opening/closing of windows. Summertime overheating was found to be prevalent in all four flats but was most pronounced in two top floor flats with high SA/FA ratio and east/west facing glazing. Due to limited window opening and locational limitations of one flat, some conclusions were derived from three flats. Though the study sample is small, it is clear that overheating in new housing is a current issue and designing for avoidance of summertime overheating should become mainstream. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy efficiency is one of the most prominent global challenges of our era. Heritage buildings usually have a poor energy performance, not necessarily because of their intrinsic constructive features but due to their mostly dilapidated condition owed to age and previous damage, exacerbated by other factors such as the limited maintenance allowed by the restrictive legal framework and/or residents not being able to afford retrofit. On both national and international levels, energy efficiency measures are considered the key to answering the global challenge of climate change. This article aims to provide a critical discussion of the policy framework for energy retrofitting targeting built heritage in the UK and in Turkey. To this end, the development of guidance and legislation on cultural heritage, energy efficiency and climate change in both countries were thoroughly reviewed, and the retrofit incentives and constraints were determined in order to identify existing policy gaps and potential problems with implementation in the realm of energy retrofitting and climate resiliency of heritage buildings. As a result of a critical comparative analysis, the paper is concluded with suggestions on policy frames for the retrofitting of heritage buildings for improved energy efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]