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Mastering the lodging risk of planting environment is of great significance to the optimal layout of maize varieties and the breeding of lodging resistant varieties. However, the existing lodging risk models are still at the stage of single or multi-factors independent analysis, and lack of assessment for different lodging types. To address this issue, based on the mechanism of different lodging types, the Archimedean copula function was used to describe the joint probability distribution of wind speed and precipitation, and the lodging risk assessment model of maize was established. By comparing the goodness of fit, when the rank correlation coefficient of these two is positive and negative, the corresponding optimal joint probability distribution functions are the Gumbel copula and Frank copula. According to the spatial distribution of lodging risk, the area from Liaodong Bay northward to Tongyu, Jilin province in the Northeast and the North China Plain has a high frequency of lodging, in which the probability of stalk lodging is two to four times that of root lodging. Finally, we discussed how to apply the lodging risk distribution results to optimize the maize variety test sites to improve the efficiency and reliability of the existing test system. The method proposed in this paper comprehensively considers the synergistic effect of multiple factors and can provide technical support for other risk assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examining the effects of climate change on spring maize, and its suitability under dynamic cultivation patterns, will aid strategic decision-making for future agricultural adaptation. This paper investigates the climate suitability of spring maize, based on daily data from 50 meteorological stations, and statistics on maize yield and area at the county level in Jilin Province, China, between 1986 and 2015. Based on a significant correlation between the cultivation patterns indicator ≥10 °C accumulated temperature (AAT10) and the average yield (R2 = 0.503), the yield data are used to determine suitable thresholds for meteorological factors under the dynamic cultivation pattern, and a fuzzy fitness approach is used to evaluate the climate suitability. The results showed a good agreement between suitability estimates and scaled observed yields (average d = 0.705). Moreover, good consistency between cultivation patterns, climate suitability and yield show that the late-maturing varieties of maize have gradually moved northward and eastward, and the areas of high suitability and high yield have gradually expanded eastward. In addition, drought and chilling hazard factors limit the suitability of climate resources, especially in the eastern and western regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]