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At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the entire world was waiting for a medical solution (for example, vaccines) in order to return to normality. Sanitary restrictions changed our consumption behaviors and feelings. Therefore, this paper analyzes the stochastic properties of consumer sentiment during the COVID-19 episode and the appearance of vaccines against the virus in December 2020 in the United States of America. This study adds a new dimension to the literature because it is the first research paper that uses advanced methodologies based on fractional integration and fractional cointegration analysis to understand the statistical properties of these time series and their behavior in the long term. The results using fractional integration methodologies exhibit a high degree of persistence, finding behavior of mean reversion during the pandemic episode. Therefore, the shock duration in consumer sentiment will be transitory, recovering to its previous trend in the short run. Focusing on the cointegrating part, we arrive at two main conclusions. First, an increase in total vaccination produces a positive reaction or impact on the behavior of consumers. On the other hand, an increase in new COVID-19 cases negatively affects the behavior of the consumer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the stochastic properties of consumer sentiment to understand how they affected the luxury sector in the United States before and after COVID-19. The results were derived using fractional integration methodologies and suggest that, before the pandemic episode, both variables were expected to be mean reverting and the shocks were transitory, having similar behavior. However, after the appearance of COVID-19, results suggest that consumer sentiment recovered before the luxury sector. Results from the use of cointegration methodologies show that the effects of COVID-19 disappeared in the short-run. Finally, the sentiment of consumers acts as a leading indicator of the behavior of the luxury sector according to wavelet analysis. Thus, an increase in consumer sentiment implies an increase of 3.6% in the luxury sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The number of COVID-19 fatalities fluctuated widely across United States (US) counties. The number of deaths is stochastic. When the average number of deaths is equal to the dispersion, the distribution is the usual Poisson. When the average number of deaths is higher than the dispersion, the distribution is an intervened Poisson. When the average number of deaths is lower than the dispersion, the distribution is an incidence-rate-restricted Poisson (IRRP) type. Because dispersion of COVID-19 fatalities in some counties is higher than the average number of fatalities, the underlying model for the chance-oriented mechanism might be IRRP. Understanding where this overdispersion or volatility exists and the implications of it is the topic of this research. In essence, this paper focuses on the number of COVID-19 fatalities that fluctuated widely across United States (US) counties and develops an incidence-rate-restricted Poisson (IRRP) to understand where this overdispersion or volatility exists and the implications of it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effects of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the performance of arbitrage trading in the energy market using daily data covering the period between 1 January 2015 and 5 December 2021. The investigation was achieved by utilizing a parametric pairs-trading model, where pairs of energy-related securities, including futures, stocks and ETFs traded in the United States, are formed. The empirical results suggest that the out-of-sample performances of pair trading declined sharply in the face of COVID-19. Dividing the whole data sample into two sub-samples, we found that the strategy performed well before COVID-19 but yielded poor results in the pandemic era. The analysis presented in this paper could serve as a benchmark for arbitrage-based trading models in the energy market during the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a devastating impact on the world at large with over 750 million cases and almost 7 million deaths reported thus far. Of those, over 100 million cases and 1 million deaths have occurred in the United States of America (USA). The mental health of the general population has been impacted by several aspects of the pandemic including lockdowns, media sensationalism, social isolation, and spread of the disease. In this paper, we examine the associations that social isolation and COVID-19 infection and related death had with the prevalence of anxiety and depression in the general population of the USA in a state-by-state multiple time-series analysis. Vector Error Correction Models are estimated and we subsequently evaluated the coefficients of the estimated models and calculated their impulse response functions for further interpretation. We found that COVID-19 incidence was positively associated with anxiety across the studied period for a majority of states. Variables related to social isolation had a varied effect depending on the state being considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: COVID-19-associated mucormycosis (CAM) is associated with high morbidity and mortality. MUNCO is an international database used to collect clinical data on cases of CAM in real time. Preliminary data from the Mycotic Infections in COVID-19 (MUNCO) online registry yielded 728 cases from May to September 2021 in four South Asian countries and the United States. A majority of the cases (694; 97.6%) consisted of a mucormycosis infection. The dataset allowed for the analysis of the risk factors for adverse outcomes from CAM and this analysis is presented in this paper. Methods: The submission of cases was aided by a direct solicitation and social media online. The primary endpoints were full recovery or death measured on day 42 of the diagnosis. All patients had histopathologically confirmed CAM. The groups were compared to determine the contribution of each patient characteristic to the outcome. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to model the probability of death after a CAM diagnosis. Results: The registry captured 694 cases of CAM. Within this, 341 could be analyzed as the study excluded patients with an unknown CAM recovery status due to either an interruption or a lack of follow up. The 341 viable cases consisted of 258 patients who survived after the completion of treatment and 83 patients who died during the period of observation. In a multivariable logistic regression model, the factors associated with an increased risk of mortality include old age (OR = 1.04, 95% CI 1.02–1.07, p = 0.001), history of diabetes mellitus (OR 3.5, 95% CI 1.01–11.9, p = 0.02) and a lower BMI (OR 0.9, 95% CI 0.82–0.98, p = 0.03). Mucor localized to sinus disease was associated with 77% reduced odds of death (OR = 0.23, 95% CI 0.09–0.57, p = 0.001), while cerebral mucor was associated with an increased odds of death (OR = 10.96, 95% CI 4.93–24.36, p = ≤0.0001). Conclusion: In patients with CAM, older age, a history of diabetes and a lower body mass index is associated with increased mortality. Disease limited to the sinuses without a cerebral extension is associated with a lower risk of mortality. Interestingly, the use of zinc and azithromycin were not associated with increased mortality in our study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to study the role of broadband in mitigating the economic losses resulting from COVID-19 in the United States by providing a necessary infrastructure to keep economic systems operating, albeit partially. The study is based on an empirical framework underlined by a Cobb–Douglas production function and estimated within a structural multi-equation model through the three-stage least squares approach. To consider the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, we rely on two main variables: an indicator of the quantity of deaths attributed to the disease for every 100,000 inhabitants; and the Stringency Index, a metric linked to the intensity of social restrictions imposed by national and local governments. The main contribution of this article is to provide robust evidence for how the heterogeneous effects of the pandemic across states are in part explained by differences in broadband adoption. Our results indicate that those states with higher broadband adoption were able to mitigate a larger portion of their economic losses derived from the pandemic-induced lockdowns. Addressing the digital divide and ensuring universal access to broadband represent critical goals for building economic resilience to face future emergencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Migrant Asian massage workers in North America first experienced the impacts of COVID-19 in the final weeks of January 2020, when business dropped drastically due to widespread xenophobic fears that the virus was concentrated in Chinese diasporic communities. The sustained economic devastation, which began at least 8 weeks prior to the first social distancing and shelter in place orders issued in the U.S. and Canada, has been further complicated by a history of aggressive policing of migrant massage workers in the wake of the war against human trafficking. Migrant Asian massage businesses are increasingly policed as locales of potential illicit sex work and human trafficking, as police and anti-trafficking initiatives target migrant Asian massage workers despite the fact that most do not provide sexual services. The scapegoating of migrant Asian massage workers and criminalization of sex work have led to devastating systemic and interpersonal violence, including numerous deportations, arrests, and deaths, most notably the recent murder of eight people at three Atlanta-based spas. The policing of sex workers has historically been mobilized along fears of sexually transmitted disease and infection, and more recently, within the past two decades, around a moral panic against sex trafficking. New racial anxieties around the coronavirus as an Asian disease have been mobilized by the state to further cement the justification of policing Asian migrant workers along the axes of health, migration, and sexual labor. These justifications also solidify discriminatory social welfare regimes that exclude Asian migrant massage workers from accessing services on the basis of the informality and illegality of their work mixed with their precarious citizenship status. This paper draws from ethnographic participant observation and survey data collected by two sex worker organizations that work primarily with massage workers in Toronto and New York City to examine the double-edged sword of policing during the pandemic in the name of anti-trafficking coupled with exclusionary policies regarding emergency relief and social welfare, and its effects on migrant Asian massage workers in North America. Although not all migrant Asian massage workers, including those surveyed in this paper, provide sexual services, they are conflated, targeted, and treated as such by the state and therefore face similar barriers of criminalization, discrimination, and exclusion. This paper recognizes that most migrant Asian massage workers do not identify as sex workers and does not intend to label them as such or reproduce the scapegoating rhetoric used by law enforcement. Rather, it seeks to analyze how exclusionary attitudes and policies towards sex workers are transferred onto migrant Asian massage workers as well whether or not they provide sexual services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID-19, known as Coronavirus disease 2019, is caused by a coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2. As coronavirus restrictions ease and cause changes to social and business activities around the world, and in the United States in particular, including social distancing, reopening states, reopening schools, and the face mask mandates, COVID-19 outbreaks are on the rise in many states across the United States and several other countries around the world. The United States recorded more than 1.9 million new infections in July, which is nearly 36 percent of the more than 5.4 million cases reported nationwide since the pandemic began, including more than 170,000 deaths from the disease, according to data from Johns Hopkins University as of 16 August 2020. In April 2020, the author of this paper presented a model to estimate the number of deaths related to COVID-19, which assumed that there would be no significant change in the COVID-19 restrictions and guidelines in the coming days. This paper, which presents the evolved version of the previous model published in April, discusses a new explicit mathematical model that considers the time-dependent effects of various pandemic restrictions and changes related to COVID-19, such as reopening states, social distancing, reopening schools, and face mask mandates in communities, along with a set of selected indicators, including the COVID-19 recovered cases and daily new cases. We analyzed and compared the modeling results to two recent models based on several model selection criteria. The model could predict the death toll related to the COVID-19 virus in the United States and worldwide based on the data available from Worldometer. The results show the proposed model fit the data significantly better for the United States and worldwide COVID-19 data that were available on 16 August 2020. The results show very encouraging predictability that reflected the time-dependent effects of various pandemic restrictions for the proposed model. The proposed model predicted that the total number of U.S. deaths could reach 208,375 by 1 October 2020, with a possible range of approximately 199,265 to 217,480 deaths based on data available on 16 August 2020. The model also projected that the death toll could reach 233,840 by 1 November 2020, with a possible range of 220,170 to 247,500 American deaths. The modeling result could serve as a baseline to help decision-makers to create a scientific framework to quantify their guidelines related to COVID-19 affairs. The model predicted that the death toll worldwide related to COVID-19 virus could reach 977,625 by 1 October 2020, with a possible range of approximately 910,820 to 1,044,430 deaths worldwide based on data available on 16 August 2020. It also predicted that the global death toll would reach nearly 1,131,000 by 1 November 2020, with a possible range of 1,030,765 to 1,231,175 deaths. The proposed model also predicted that the global death toll could reach 1.47 million deaths worldwide as a result of the SARS CoV-2 coronavirus that causes COVID-19. We plan to apply or refine the proposed model in the near future to further study the COVID-19 death tolls for India and Brazil, where the two countries currently have the second and third highest total COVID-19 cases after the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in stay-at-home policies and other social distancing behaviors in the United States in spring of 2020. This paper examines the impact that these actions had on emissions and expected health effects through reduced personal vehicle travel and electricity consumption. Using daily cell phone mobility data for each U.S. county, we find that vehicle travel dropped about 40% by mid-April across the nation. States that imposed stay-at-home policies before March 28 decreased travel slightly more than other states, but travel in all states decreased significantly. Using data on hourly electricity consumption by electricity region (e.g., balancing authority), we find that electricity consumption fell about 6% on average by mid-April with substantial heterogeneity. Given these decreases in travel and electricity use, we estimate the county-level expected improvements in air quality, and, therefore, expected declines in mortality. Overall, we estimate that, for a month of social distancing, the expected premature deaths due to air pollution from personal vehicle travel and electricity consumption declined by approximately 360 deaths, or about 25% of the baseline 1500 deaths. In addition, we estimate that CO2 emissions from these sources fell by 46 million metric tons (a reduction of approximately 19%) over the same time frame. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we discuss an explicit model function that can estimate the total number of deaths in the population, and particularly, estimate the cumulative number of deaths in the United States due to the current Covid-19 virus. We compare the modeling results to two related existing models based on a new criteria and several existing criteria for model selection. The results show the proposed model fits significantly better than the other two related models based on the U.S. Covid-19 death data. We observe that the errors of the fitted data and the predicted data points on the total number of deaths in the U.S. on the last available data point and the next coming day are less than 0.5% and 2.0%, respectively. The results show very encouraging predictability for the model. The new model predicts that the maximum total number of deaths will be approximately 62,100 across the United States due to the Covid-19 virus, and with a 95% confidence that the expected total death toll will be between 60,951 and 63,249 deaths based on the data until 22 April, 2020. If there is a significant change in the coming days due to various testing strategies, social-distancing policies, the reopening of community strategies, or a stay-home policy, the predicted death tolls will definitely change. Future work can be explored further to apply the proposed model to global Covid-19 death data and to other applications, including human population mortality, the spread of disease, and different topics such as movie reviews in recommender systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]