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Frequent forest fires cause air pollution, threaten biodiversity and spoil forest ecosystems. Forest fire vulnerability assessment is a potential way to improve the ability of forests to resist climate disasters and help formulate appropriate forest management countermeasures. Here, we developed an automated hybrid machine learning algorithm by selecting the optimal model from 24 models to map potential forest fire vulnerability over China during the period 2001–2020. The results showed forest aboveground biomass (AGB) had a vulnerability of 26%, indicating that approximately 2.32 Gt C/year of forest AGB could be affected by fire disturbances. The spatiotemporal patterns of forest fire vulnerability were dominated by both forest characteristics and climate conditions. Hotspot regions for vulnerability were mainly located in arid areas in western China, mountainous areas in southwestern China, and edges of vegetation zones. The overall forest fire vulnerability across China was insignificant. The forest fire vulnerability of boreal and temperate coniferous forests and mixed forests showed obviously decreasing trends, and cultivated forests showed an increasing trend. The results of this study are expected to provide important support for the forest ecosystem management in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliable data on CO2 quantification is increasingly important to quantify the climate benefits of forest landscape restoration and international commitments, such as the Warsaw REDD+ Framework and Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement. Calophyllum inophyllum L. (nyamplung as a local name or tamanu tree for the commercial name) is an increasingly popular tree species in forest landscape restoration and bioenergy production for a variety of reasons. In this paper, we present allometric equations for aboveground biomass (AGB), belowground biomass (BGB), and total above- and belowground biomass (TABGB) predictions of C. inophyllum L. Data collection was carried out twice (2017 and 2021) from 40 trees in Java, Indonesia. Allometric equations using the natural logarithm of diameter at breast height (lnDBH) and ln height (lnH) for biomass prediction qualified the model's fit with statistical significance at 95% of the confidence interval for AGB, BGB, and TABGB predictions. The results showed that the linear models using both lnDBH and lnH were well fit and accurate. However, the model with lnDBH is more precise than the model using lnH. Using lnDBH as a predictor, the R2 values were 0.923, 0.945, and 0.932, and MAPE were 24.7, 37.0, and 25.8 for AGB, BGB, and TABGB, respectively. Using lnH as a predictor, the R2 values were 0.887, 0.918, and 0.898 and MAPE were 37.4, 49.0, and 39.8 for AGB, BGB, and TABGB, respectively. Consequently, the driven allometric equations can help accurate biomass quantification for carbon-trading schemes of C. inophyllum L. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest is the largest vegetation carbon pool in the global terrestrial ecosystem. The spatial distribution and change of forest biomass are of importance to reveal the surface spatial variation and driving factors, to analyze and evaluate forest productivity, and to evaluate ecological function of forest. In this study, broad-leaved forests located in a typical state nature reserve in northern subtropics were selected as the study area. Based on ground survey data and high-resolution remote sensing images, three machine learning models were used to identify the best remote sensing quantitative inversion model of forest biomass. The biomass of broad-leaved forest with 30-m resolution in the study area from 1998 to 2016 was estimated by using the best model about every two years. With the estimated biomass, multiple leading factors to cause biomass temporal change were then identified from dozens of remote sensing factors by investigating their nonlinear correlations. Our results showed that the artificial neural network (ANN) model was the best (R2 = 0.8742) among the three, and its accuracy was also much higher than that of the traditional linear or nonlinear models. The mean biomass of the broad-leaved forest in the study area from 1998 to 2016 ranged from 90 to 145 Mg ha−1, showing an obvious temporal variation. Instead of biomass, biomass change (BC) was studied further in this research. Significant correlations were found between BC in broad-leaved forest and three climate factors, including average daily maximum surface temperature, maximum precipitation, and maximum mean temperature. It was also found that BC has a strong correlation with the biomass at the previous time (i.e., two years ago). Those quantitative correlations were used to construct a linear model of BC with high accuracy (R2 = 0.8873), providing a new way to estimate the biomass change of two years later based on the observations of current biomass and the three climate factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forests play a prominent role in the battle against climate change, as they absorb a relevant part of human carbon emissions. However, precisely because of climate change, forest disturbances are expected to increase and alter forests' capacity to absorb carbon. In this context, forest monitoring using all available sources of information is crucial. We combined optical (Landsat) and photonic (GEDI) data to monitor four decades (1985–2019) of disturbances in Italian forests (11 Mha). Landsat data were confirmed as a relevant source of information for forest disturbance mapping, as forest harvestings in Tuscany were predicted with omission errors estimated between 29% (in 2012) and 65% (in 2001). GEDI was assessed using Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS) data available for about 6 Mha of Italian forests. A good correlation (r2 = 0.75) between Above Ground Biomass Density GEDI estimates (AGBD) and canopy height ALS estimates was reported. GEDI data provided complementary information to Landsat. The Landsat mission is capable of mapping disturbances, but not retrieving the three-dimensional structure of forests, while our results indicate that GEDI is capable of capturing forest biomass changes due to disturbances. GEDI acquires useful information not only for biomass trend quantification in disturbance regimes but also for forest disturbance discrimination and characterization, which is crucial to further understanding the effect of climate change on forest ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The characterization of carbon stocks and dynamics at the national level is critical for countries engaging in climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. However, several tropical countries, including Kenya, lack the essential information typically provided by a complete national forest inventory. Here we present the most detailed and rigorous national-scale assessment of aboveground woody biomass carbon stocks and dynamics for Kenya to date. A non-parametric random forest algorithm was trained to retrieve aboveground woody biomass carbon (AGBC) for the year 2014 ± 1 and forest disturbances for the 2014–2017 period using in situ forest inventory plot data and satellite Earth Observation (EO) data. The ecosystem carbon cycling of Kenya's forests and wooded grassland were assessed using a model-data fusion framework, CARDAMOM, constrained by the woody biomass datasets from this study as well as time series information on leaf area, fire events and soil organic carbon. Our EO-derived AGBC stocks were estimated as 140 Mt C for forests and 199 Mt C for wooded grasslands. The total AGBC loss during the study period was estimated as 1.89 Mt C with a dispersion below 1%. The CARDAMOM analysis estimated woody productivity to be three times larger in forests (mean = 1.9 t C ha−1 yr−1) than wooded grasslands (0.6 t C ha−1 yr−1), and the mean residence time of woody C in forests (16 years) to be greater than in wooded grasslands (10 years). This study stresses the importance of carbon sequestration by forests in the international climate mitigation efforts under the Paris Agreement, but emphasizes the need to include non-forest ecosystems such as wooded grasslands in international greenhouse gas accounting frameworks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water resources from rivers are essential to humans. The discharge of rivers is demonstrated to be significantly affected by climate change in the literature, particularly in the boreal and subboreal climate zones. The Da Hinggan Mountains in subboreal northeast China form the headwaters of the Heilongjiang River and the Nenjiang River, which are important water resources for irrigation of downstream agriculture and wetlands. In this study, long-term (44 years) hydrologic, climate and forest dynamics data from the Tahe were analyzed using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model to quantify the effects of climate and forest change on runoff depth. Meanwhile, downscaled precipitation and temperature predictions that arose from global climate models (GCMs) under four representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5) were forced using the SWAT model to investigate the climate change impacts on the Tahe River flows in the future. The results indicated that compared with the 1972–1982 period, the forest biomass in the 1984–1994 period was reduced by 17.6%, resulting in an increase of 16.6% in mean annual runoff depth. On the contrary, with reforestation from the 1995–2005 period to the 2006–2016 period, the mean forest biomass was increased by 9.8%, resulting in the mean runoff depth reduction of 11.9%. The tree species composition shift reduced mean annual runoff depth of 13.3% between the 1984–1994 period and the 2006–2016 period. Compared with base years (2006–2016), projections of GCM in the middle of the 21st century indicated that both mean annual temperature and precipitation were expected to increase by −0.50 °C and 43 mm under RCP 2.6, 0.38 °C and 23 mm under RCP 4.5, 0.67 °C and 36 mm under RCP 6.0 and 1.00 °C and 10 mm under RCP 8.5. Simulated results of the SWAT model showed that annual runoff depth would increase by 18.1% (RCP 2.6), 11.8% (RCP 4.5), 23.6% (RCP 6.0), and 11.5% (RCP 8.5), compared to the base years. Such increased runoff was mainly attributed to the increase in April, July, August, September and October, which were consistent with the precipitation prediction. We concluded that the future climate change will increase the water resources from the river, thereby offsetting the possible decline in runoff caused by the forest recovery. The findings of this study might be useful for understanding the impacts of climate and forest change on runoff and provide a reasonable strategy for managers and planners to mitigate the impact of future climate change on water resources in the subboreal forested watersheds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]