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High-speed railway (HSR) promote the efficient flow of the population and materials between cities and have profoundly affected urban economic development in China. However, there is currently limited research about how HSR influences urban expansion, especially related to the variable impacts on different urban agglomerations, different size cities, and the conversion of non-urban land to urban land. In this study, from two levels of regional heterogeneity and type heterogeneity, a multi-stage difference-in-differences (multi-stage DID) model and land use remote sensing data are used to investigate these research areas. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The first opening of HSR had a more significant role in promoting urban expansion than HSR frequency, but several years after opening, HSR no longer promotes urban expansion. (2) The opening of HSR only played a significant role in promoting urban expansion in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei. HSR frequency had a significant role in promoting urban expansion in the Yangtze River Delta. (3) The opening of HSR had no significant impact on urban expansion for different size cities, and HSR frequency only had a significant negative impact on urban expansion of small cities. (4) The first opening of HSR led to urban expansion dominated by the occupation of cultivated land. Cities in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia mainly converted barren land and vegetation cover to urban land after the first opening of HSR. In northeast China, the first opening of HSR made the conversion of vegetation cover and cultivated land to urban land roughly equivalent in size. The results of this study are helpful to understand the impact of the first opening of HSR and the scale of conversion of different types of non-urban land into urban land on urban expansion. In the era of HSR, these findings provide a valuable reference for regional planning and preventing the disorderly expansion of cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use change is an important way for human activities to affect ecosystems. Based on the land use demands and policies, the simulation of future land use changes under different scenarios can test the rationality of socio-economic and policy-oriented land use changes. In this study, we set three scenarios of regular growth, ecological protection, and ecotourism development in 2030 for the Beibu Gulf area, China. We simulated the spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of the future landscape pattern using the Scenario Generator Rule Based Module of InVEST. Meanwhile, the ecosystem service value (ESV) was estimated by the improved unit area value equivalent method to reveal the trend of ESVs under different regional development models. The results indicated that the land use changes in the Beibu Gulf during 1999–2014 showed significant spatial heterogeneity. The farmland was mainly distributed in Beihai, the forestland was located in Fangchenggang, while the orchard was concentrated on Qinzhou. Due to economic construction and urban expansion, construction land and aquaculture land were gradually growing, while farmland and mud flat continued to decrease. Between 2014 and 2030, the total ESV decreased in the regular growth scenario and gradually increased in the ecological protection scenario and ecotourism development scenario. In addition, by comparing the three scenarios, the ecotourism development scenario is a more reasonable model for Guangxi Beibu Gulf area, which realized the trade-off between tourism development and resource conservation. Therefore, regional planners should not only consider maximizing ESVs when planning for ecosystem services, but also strive to maintain a reasonable structure of ecosystem services. Some suggestions were provided in this paper at the macro level and the local development model level respectively, which offered some references for the rational allocation of land resources, ecological environmental protection and ecotourism development in the coastal area of Beibu Gulf. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]