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Climate disasters such as floods and droughts often bring heavy losses to human life, national economy, and public safety. El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important inter-annual climate signals in the tropics and has a global impact on atmospheric circulation and precipitation. To address the impact of climate change, accurate ENSO forecasts can help prevent related climate disasters. Traditional prediction methods mainly include statistical methods and dynamic methods. However, due to the variability and diversity of the temporal and spatial evolution of ENSO, traditional methods still have great uncertainty in predicting ENSO. In recent years, with the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, it has gradually penetrated into all aspects of people's lives, and the climate field has also benefited. For example, deep learning methods in artificial intelligence can automatically learn and train from a large amount of sample data, obtain excellent feature representation, and effectively improve the performance of various learning tasks. It is widely used in computer vision, natural language processing, and other fields. In 2019, Ham et al. used a convolutional neural network (CNN) model in ENSO forecasting 18 months in advance, and the winter ENSO forecasting skill could reach 0.64, far exceeding the dynamic model with a forecasting skill of 0.5. The research results were regarded as the pioneering work of deep learning in the field of weather forecasting. This paper introduces the traditional ENSO forecasting methods and focuses on summarizing the various latest artificial intelligence methods and their forecasting effects for ENSO forecasting, so as to provide useful reference for future research by researchers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to identify the trends of changes in atmospheric precipitation percolation under the changing climate conditions of Lithuania (the East Baltic region) based on long-term lysimeter studies. Data from 1987–2022 research (n = 1296) was used to determine trends in precipitation infiltration changes. Two 10-year periods, 1989–1998 and 2011–2020, were selected from the whole observation period (1987–2022) to assess changes in precipitation infiltration due to climate change. The air temperature has increased significantly in November (+3.4 °C) and December (+3.3 °C), with a +2.2 °C increase in the standard climate normal. The distribution of yearly precipitation has changed, with the annual amount decreasing from 686 to 652 mm. Precipitation increased the most in July and August (10.9 and 22.9 mm). In autumn, the amount of precipitation decreased by 7.9–31.1 mm. The number of rainy days did not change during the year, but the frequency of heavy precipitation increased significantly in August. The annual percolation increased by 14.2% over 2011–2020 compared to 1989–1998. Percolation increased by 19.0, 22.3, and 20.1% during the spring, autumn, and winter, respectively, and decreased by 35.0% in summer. The increase in annual percolation is mostly related to the increase in temperature during the cold season: November and December. During these months, the likelihood of early freeze formation, which interrupts gravitational water percolation in soil, is significantly reduced. In the spring, the increase in average air temperatures in March leads to faster melting of the winter snow in a shorter period, which significantly increases percolation processes. In Lithuania, higher percolation in autumn and winter, when part of the agricultural land is not covered by vegetation, may lead to higher leaching of chemical elements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Brazilian savannah-like Cerrado is classified as a fire-dependent biome. Human activities have altered the fire regimes in the region, and as a result, not all fires have ecological benefits. The indigenous lands (ILs) of the Brazilian Cerrado have registered the recurrence of forest fires. Thus, the diagnosis of these events is fundamental to understanding the burning regimes and their consequences. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the fire regimes in Cerrado's indigenous lands from 2008 to 2017. We used the Landsat time series, at 30 m spatial resolution, available in the Google Earth Engine platform to delineate the burned areas. We used precipitation data from a meteorological station to define the rainy season (RS), early dry season (EDS), middle dry season (MDS), and late dry season (LDS) periods. During 2008-2017, our results show that the total burned area in the indigenous lands and surrounding area was 2,289,562 hectares, distributed in 14,653 scars. Most fires took place between June and November, and the annual burned area was quite different in the years studied. It was also possible to identify areas with high fire recurrence. The fire regime patterns described here are the first step towards understanding the fire regimes in the region and establishing directions to improve management strategies and guide public policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A drop-freeze array (PeKing University Ice Nucleation Array, PKU-INA) was developed based on the cold-stage method to investigate heterogeneous ice nucleation properties of atmospheric particles in the immersion freezing mode from -30 to 0 °C. The instrumental details as well as characterization and performance evaluation are described in this paper. A careful temperature calibration protocol was developed in our work. The uncertainties in the reported temperatures were found to be less than 0.4 °C at various cooling rates after calibration. We also measured the ice nucleation activities of droplets containing different mass concentrations of illite NX, and the results obtained in our work show good agreement with those reported previously using other instruments with similar principles. Overall, we show that our newly developed PKU-INA is a robust and reliable instrument for investigation of heterogeneous ice nucleation in the immersion freezing mode. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep convection is a threat to many human activities, with a great impact on aviation safety. On 7 July 2017, a widespread torrential precipitation event (associated with a cut-off low at mid-levels) was registered in the vicinity of Madrid, causing serious flight disruptions. During this type of episode, accurate short-term forecasts are key to minimizing risks to aviation. The aim of this research is to improve early warning systems by obtaining the best WRF model setup. In this paper, the aforementioned event was simulated. Various model configurations were produced using four different physics parameterizations, 3-km and 1-km domain resolutions, and 0.25° and 1° initial condition resolutions. Simulations were validated using data from 17 rain gauge stations. Two validation indices are proposed, accounting for the temporal behaviour of the model. Results show significant differences between microphysics parameterizations. Validation of domain resolution shows that improvement from 3 to 1 km is negligible. Interestingly, the 0.25° resolution for initial conditions produced poor results compared with 1°. This may be linked to a timing error, because precipitation was simulated further east than observed. The use of ensembles generated by combining different WRF model configurations produced reliable precipitation estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anatural temporary imbalance ofwater availability, consisting of persistent lower-than-average or higher-than-average precipitation, can cause extreme dry and wet conditions that adversely impact agricultural yields, water resources, infrastructure, and human systems. In this study, dry and wet periods in New Zealand were expressed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). First, both the short term (3 and 6 months) and the long term (12 and 24 months) SPI were estimated, and then, possible trends in the SPI values were detected by means of a new graphical technique, the Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), which allows the trend identification of the low, medium, and high values of a series. Results show that, in every area currently subject to drought, an increase in this phenomenon can be expected. Specifically, the results of this paper highlight that agricultural regions on the eastern side of the South Island, as well as the north-eastern regions of the North Island, are the most consistently vulnerable areas. In fact, in these regions, the trend analysis mainly showed a general reduction in all the values of the SPI: that is, a tendency toward heavier droughts and weaker wet periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Robustness of water distribution networks is related to their connectivity and topological structure, which also affect their reliability. Flow entropy, based on Shannon's informational entropy, has been proposed as a measure of network redundancy and adopted as a proxy of reliability in optimal network design procedures. In this paper, the scaling properties of flow entropy of water distribution networks with their size and other topological metrics are studied. To such aim, flow entropy, maximum flow entropy, link density and average path length have been evaluated for a set of 22 networks, both real and synthetic, with different size and topology. The obtained results led to identify suitable scaling laws of flow entropy and maximum flow entropy with water distribution network size, in the form of power-laws. The obtained relationships allow comparing the flow entropy of water distribution networks with different size, and provide an easy tool to define the maximum achievable entropy of a specific water distribution network. An example of application of the obtained relationships to the design of a water distribution network is provided, showing how, with a constrained multi-objective optimization procedure, a tradeoff between network cost and robustness is easily identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current neighborhood probability (NP) method mainly considers the spatial displacement error in high-resolution precipitation forecasts, but the problem of the forecast time exceeding or lagging behind the observed field has not been properly solved. Therefore, a temporal factor was introduced into the NP method in this paper, and precipitation forecasts were evaluated in different spatial-temporal neighborhoods based on the improved NP method and fractions skill score (FSS), combined with the relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The results indicated that the forecasting accuracy of the ensemble forecast was higher than the control forecast. The neighborhood ensemble probability (NEP) and probability matched mean (PMM) methods were superior to the traditional ensemble mean (EM) method in forecasting heavy rainfall, which compensated for the limitations of the heavy rainfall forecasting ability of EM. For such squall line processes, a spatial scale of 15-45 km neighborhood radius could effectively rectify the displacement error of precipitation. There was a corresponding relationship between temporal scale and rainfall intensity in convective-scale precipitation forecast, so the temporal uncertainty of different levels of precipitation could be captured by different temporal scales. The spatial and temporal scales had interdependent influences on precipitation forecast effects, which could be affected by the intrinsic spatial-temporal scale of convective-scale weather systems. The improved NP method could simultaneously reflect the spatial and temporal uncertainties of convective-scale precipitation forecasts in high-resolution models, achieving a comprehensive assessment of spatial-temporal scale and providing probabilistic forecast results that match different levels of precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation is a key aspect of the climate system. In this paper, the dependability of five satellite precipitation products (TRMM [Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission] 3BV42, PERSIANN [Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks] CDR, GSMaP [Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation] RENALYSIS, CMORPH [Climate Prediction Center's morphing technique] BLD and CMORPH_RAW) were compared with in situ measurements over China for the period of 2005 to 2013. To completely evaluate these precipitation products, the annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation averages were calculated. Overall, the Huaihe River and Qinlin mountains are shown to have heavy precipitation to the southeast and lighter precipitation to the northwest. The comparison results indicate that Gauge correction (CMORPH_BLD) improves the quality of the original satellite products (CMORPH_RAW), resulting in the higher correlation coefficient (CC), the low relative bias (BIAS) and root mean square error (RMSE). Over China, the GSMaP_RENALYSIS outperforms other products and shows the highest CC (0.91) and lowest RMSE (0.85 mm/day) and all products except for PERSIANN_CDR exhibit underestimation. GSMaP_RENALYSIS gives the highest of probability of detection (81%), critical success index (63%) and lowest false alarm ratio (36%) while TRMM3BV42 gives the highest of frequency bias index (1.00). Over Tibetan Plateau, CMORPH_RAW demonstrates the poorest performance with the biggest BIAS (4.2 mm/month) and lowest CC (0.22) in December 2013. GSMaP_RENALYSIS displays quite consistent with in situ measurements in summer. However, GSMaP_RENALYSIS and CMORPH_RAWunderestimate precipitation over South China. CMORPH_BLD and TRMM3BV42 show consistent with high CC (>0.8) but relatively large RMSE in summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mediterranean regions are prone to heavy rainfall, flash floods, and erosion issues. Drop size distribution (DSD) is a key element for studying these phenomena through the hydrological variables which can be derived from it (rainfall rates and totals, kinetic energy fluxes). This paper proposes a five-year (2012-2016) DSD climatology, summarized by scaling parameters for concentration, size, and shape. The DSD network is composed of two longitudinal transects of three OTT Parsivel optical disdrometers each, across the Mediterranean Cevennes-Vivarais region. The influence of several factors are analysed: location (distance from the sea, orographic environment), season, daily synoptic weather situation (derived from geopotential heights, at 700 and 1000 hPa), rainfall type (analysed from 5 min radar data), as well as some combinations of these factors. It was found and/or confirmed that the orographic environment, season, weather patterns associated with the exposure to low level atmospheric flows, and rainfall types influenced the microphysical processes, leading to rainfall, measured at the ground. Consequently, the DSD characteristics, as well as the relationships between the rainfall rate and reflectivity factor, are influenced by these factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copula functions have been extensively used to describe the joint behaviors of extreme hydrological events and to analyze hydrological risk. Advanced marginal distribution inference, for example, the maximum entropy theory, is particularly beneficial for improving the performance of the copulas. The goal of this paper, therefore, is twofold; first, to develop a coupled maximum entropy-copula method for hydrological risk analysis through deriving the bivariate return periods, risk, reliability and bivariate design events; and second, to reveal the impact of marginal distribution selection uncertainty and sampling uncertainty on bivariate design event identification. Particularly, the uncertainties involved in the second goal have not yet received significant consideration. The designed framework for hydrological risk analysis related to flood and extreme precipitation events is exemplarily applied in two catchments of the Loess plateau, China. Results show that (1) distribution derived by the maximum entropy principle outperforms the conventional distributions for the probabilistic modeling of flood and extreme precipitation events; (2) the bivariate return periods, risk, reliability and bivariate design events are able to be derived using the coupled entropy-copula method; (3) uncertainty analysis highlights the fact that appropriate performance of marginal distribution is closely related to bivariate design event identification. Most importantly, sampling uncertainty causes the confidence regions of bivariate design events with return periods of 30 years to be very large, overlapping with the values of flood and extreme precipitation, which have return periods of 10 and 50 years, respectively. The large confidence regions of bivariate design events greatly challenge its application in practical engineering design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a soil moisture dataset that has been collecting ground measurements of soil moisture, soil temperature and related parameters for west Wales, United Kingdom. Already acquired in situ data have been archived to the autonomous Wales Soil Moisture Network (WSMN) since its foundation in July 2011. The sites from which measurements are being collected represent a range of conditions typical of the Welsh environment, with climate ranging from oceanic to temperate and a range of the most typical land use/cover types found in Wales. At present, WSMN consists of a total of nine monitoring sites across the area with a concentration of sites in three sub-areas around the region of Aberystwyth located in Mid-Wales. The dataset of composed of 0-5 (or 0-10) cm soil moisture, soil temperature, precipitation, and other ancillary data. WSMN data are provided openly to the public via the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) platform. At present, WSMN is also rapidly expanding thanks to funding obtained recently which allows more monitoring sites to be added to the network to the wider community interested in using its data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mountainous regions experience complex phenological behavior along climatic, vegetational and topographic gradients. In this paper, we use a MODIS time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to understand the causes of variations in spring and autumn timing from 2000 to 2015, for a landscape renowned for its biological diversity. By filtering for cover type, topography and disturbance history, we achieved an improved understanding of the effects of seasonal weather variation on land surface phenology (LSP). Elevational effects were greatest in spring and were more important than site moisture effects. The spring and autumn NDVI of deciduous forests were found to increase in response to antecedent warm temperatures, with evidence of possible cross-seasonal lag effects, including possible accelerated green-up after cold Januarys and early brown-down following warm springs. Areas that were disturbed by the hemlock woolly adelgid and a severe tornado showed a weaker sensitivity to cross-year temperature and precipitation variation, while low severity wildland fire had no discernable effect. Use of ancillary datasets to filter for disturbance and vegetation type improves our understanding of vegetation’s phenological responsiveness to climate dynamics across complex environmental gradients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2015 release of the precipitation climatology from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) for 1951-2000, based on climatological normals of about 75,100 rain gauges, allows for quantification of mean land surface precipitation as part of the global water cycle. In GPCC's 2011-release, a bulk climatological correction was applied to compensate for gauge undercatch. In this paper we derive an improved correction approach based on the synoptic weather reports for the period 1982-2015. The compared results show that the climatological approach tends to overestimate the correction for Central and Eastern Europe, especially in the northern winter, and in other regions throughout the year. Applying the mean weather-dependent correction to the GPCC's uncorrected precipitation climatology for 1951-2000 gives a value of 854.7 mm of precipitation per year (excluding Antarctica) or 790 mm for the global land surface. The warming of nearly 1 K relative to pre-industrial temperatures is expected to be accompanied by a 2%-3% increase in global (land and ocean) precipitation. However, a comparison of climatology for 30-year reference periods from 1931-1960 up to 1981-2010 reveals no significant trend for land surface precipitation. This may be caused by the large variability of precipitation, the varying data coverage over time and other issues related to the sampling of rain-gauge networks. The GPCC continues to enlarge and further improve the quality of its database, and will generate precipitation analyses with homogeneous data coverage over time. Another way to reduce the sampling issues is the combination of rain gauge-based analyses with remote sensing (i.e., satellite or radar) datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the benefits of integrating coarse resolution satellite-derived precipitation estimates with quasi-point rain gauge data for generating a fine spatial resolution precipitation map product. To integrate the two precipitation data sources, a geostatistical downscaling and integration approach is presented that can account for the differences in spatial resolution between data from different supports and adjusts inherent errors in the coarse resolution precipitation estimates. First, coarse resolution precipitation estimates are downscaled at a fine spatial resolution via area-to-point kriging to allow direct comparison with rain gauge data. Second, the downscaled precipitation estimates are integrated with the rain gauge data by multivariate kriging. In particular, errors in the coarse resolution precipitation estimates are adjusted against rain gauge data during this second stage. In this study, simple kriging with local means (SKLM) and kriging with an external drift (KED) are used as multivariate kriging algorithms. For comparative purposes, conditional merging (CM), a frequently-applied method for integrating rain gauge data and radar precipitation, is also employed. From a case study with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B43 monthly precipitation products acquired in South Korea from May–October in 2013, we found that the incorporation of TRMM data with rain gauge data did not improve prediction performance when the number of rain gauge data was relatively large. However, the benefit of integrating TRMM and rain gauge data was most striking, regardless of multivariate kriging algorithms, when a small number of rain gauge data was used. These results indicate that the coarse resolution satellite-derived precipitation product would be a useful source for mapping precipitation at a fine spatial resolution if the geostatistical integration approach is applied to areas with sparse rain gauges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last few years, the number of worldwide operational X-band weather radars has rapidly been growing, thanks to an established technology that offers reliability, high performance, and reduced efforts and costs for installation and maintenance, with respect to the more widespread C- and S-band systems. X-band radars are particularly suitable for nowcasting activities, as those operated by the LaMMA (Laboratory of Monitoring and Environmental Modelling for the sustainable development) Consortium in the framework of its institutional duties of operational meteorological surveillance. In fact, they have the capability to monitor precipitation, resolving very local scales, with good spatial and temporal details, although with a reduced scanning range. The Consortium has recently installed a small network of X-band weather radars that partially overlaps and completes the existing national radar network over the north Tyrrhenian area. This paper describes the implementation of this regional network, detailing the aspects related with the radar signal processing chain that provides the final reflectivity composite, starting from the acquisition of the signal power data. The network performances are then qualitatively assessed for three case studies characterised by different precipitation regimes and different seasons. Results are satisfactory especially during intense precipitations, particularly regarding what concerns their spatial and temporal characterisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several types of non-precipitation echoes appear in radar images and disrupt the weather forecasting process. An anomalous propagation echo is an unwanted observation result similar to a precipitation echo. It occurs through radar-beam ducting because of the temperature, humidity distribution, and other complicated atmospheric conditions. Anomalous propagation echoes should be removed because they make weather forecasting difficult. In this paper, we suggest an ensemble classification method based on an artificial neural network and a clustering-based subset-selection method. This method allows us to implement an efficient classification method when a feature space has complicated distributions. By separating the input data into atomic and non-atomic clusters, each derived cluster will receive its own base classifier. In the experiments, we compared our method with a standalone artificial neural network classifier. The suggested ensemble classifier showed 84.14% performance, which was about 2% higher than that of the k-means clustering-based ensemble classifier and about 4% higher than the standalone artificial neural network classifier. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatial distribution of automatic weather stations in regions of western China (e.g., Tibet and southern Xingjiang) is relatively sparse. Due to the considerable spatial variability of precipitation, estimations of rainfall that are interpolated in these areas exhibit considerable uncertainty based on the current observational networks. In this paper, a new statistical method for estimating precipitation is introduced that integrates satellite products and in situ observation data. This method calculates the differences between raster data and point data based on the theory of data assimilation. In regions in which the spatial distribution of automatic weather stations is sparse, a nonparametric kernel-smoothing method is adopted to process the discontinuous data through correction and spatial interpolation. A comparative analysis of the fusion method based on the double-smoothing algorithm proposed here indicated that the method performed better than those used in previous studies based on the average deviation, root mean square error, and correlation coefficient values. Our results indicate that the proposed method is more rational and effective in terms of both the efficiency coefficient and the spatial distribution of the deviations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Remote sensing has long been a useful tool in global applications, since it provides physically-based, worldwide, and consistent spatial information. This paper discusses the potential of using these techniques in the research field of water management, particularly for 'Water Footprint' (WF) studies. The WF of a crop is defined as the volume of water consumed for its production, where green and blue WF stand for rain and irrigation water usage, respectively. In this paper evapotranspiration, precipitation, water storage, runoff and land use are identified as key variables to potentially be estimated by remote sensing and used for WF assessment. A mass water balance is proposed to calculate the volume of irrigation applied, and green and blue WF are obtained from the green and blue evapotranspiration components. The source of remote sensing data is described and a simplified example is included, which uses evapotranspiration estimates from the geostationary satellite Meteosat 9 and precipitation estimates obtained with the Climatic Prediction Center Morphing Technique (CMORPH). The combination of data in this approach brings several limitations with respect to discrepancies in spatial and temporal resolution and data availability, which are discussed in detail. This work provides new tools for global WF assessment and represents an innovative approach to global irrigation mapping, enabling the estimation of green and blue water use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) is analyzed for the assessment of meteorological drought. The evaluation is conducted over China at 0.5° spatial resolution against a ground-based gridded China monthly Precipitation Analysis Product (CPAP) from 1983 to 2014 (32 years). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at various time scales (1 month to 12 months) is calculated for detecting drought events. The results show that PERSIANN-CDR depicts similar drought behavior as the ground-based CPAP in terms of capturing the spatial and temporal patterns of drought events over eastern China, where the intensity of gauge networks and the frequency of droughts are high. 6-month SPI shows the best agreement with CPAP in identifying drought months. However, large differences between PERSIANN-CDR and CPAP in depicting drought patterns and identifying specific drought events are found over northwestern China, particularly in Xinjiang and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. Factors behind this may be due to the relatively sparse gauge networks, the complicated terrain and the performance of PERSIANN algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global positioning system (GPS) detection technology has several advantageous characteristics (i.e., all-weather applications, high accuracy, high spatial and temporal resolution, and low cost), and GPS tracking and monitoring techniques for water vapor have developed rapidly in recent years. The GPS-precipitable water vapor (GPS-PWV), obtained through inversion using this technology can reflect the water vapor inflow and outflow in a vertical air column above a certain area in nearly real-time, which is especially important for areas of severe water vapor variation. In this paper, we studied the relationship between GPS-PWV variation and actual precipitation. The specific aim was to identify the underlying physical mechanisms driving the variation and to further strengthen the utility of GPS-PWV in forecasts and warnings of severe convection weather. We concluded that (1) rapid rise in the GPS-PWV in the long-term low-level data predicted the arrival of precipitation and was therefore useful in weather forecasts; (2) the GPS-PWV variation was closely related with the movement of the water vapor transfer belt; (3) the atmosphere showed an unstable energy structure before the GPS-PWV increase; and (4) local motion was strongly related with the development and maintenance of precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in vegetation activity are driven by multiple natural and anthropogenic factors, which can be reflected by Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from satellites. In this paper, NDVI trends from 1982 to 2012 are first estimated by the Theil-Sen median slope method to explore their spatial and temporal patterns. Then, the impact of climate variables and human activity on the observed NDVI trends is analyzed. Our results show that on average, NDVI increased by 0.46 × 10-3 per year from 1982 to 2012 globally with decadal variations. For most regions of the world, a greening (increasing)-browning (decreasing)-greening (G-B-G) trend is observed over the periods 1982-2004, 1995-2004, and 2005-2012, respectively. A positive partial correlation of NDVI and temperature is observed in the first period but it decreases and occasionally becomes negative in the following periods, especially in the Humid Temperate and Dry Domain Regions. This suggests a weakened effect of temperature on vegetation growth. Precipitation, on the other hand, is found to have a positive impact on the NDVI trend. This effect becomes stronger in the third period of 1995-2004, especially in the Dry Domain Region. Anthropogenic effects and human activities, derived here from the Human Footprint Dataset and the associated Human Influence Index (HII), have varied impacts on the magnitude (absolute value) of the NDVI trends across continents. Significant positive effects are found in Asia, Africa, and Europe, suggesting that intensive human activity could accelerate the change in NDVI and vegetation. A more accurate attribution of vegetation change to specific climatic and anthropogenic factors is instrumental to understand vegetation dynamics and requires further research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the spatial error structures of eight precipitation estimates derived from four different satellite retrieval algorithms including TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH), Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN). All the original satellite and bias-corrected products of each algorithm (3B42RTV7 and 3B42V7, CMORPH_RAW and CMORPH_CRT, GSMaP_MVK and GSMaP_Gauge, PERSIANN_RAW and PERSIANN_CDR) are evaluated against ground-based Asian Precipitation-Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) over Central Asia for the period of 2004 to 2006. The analyses show that all products except PERSIANN exhibit overestimation over Aral Sea and its surrounding areas. The bias-correction improves the quality of the original satellite TMPA products and GSMaP significantly but slightly in CMORPH and PERSIANN over Central Asia. 3B42RTV7 overestimates precipitation significantly with large Relative Bias (RB) (128.17%) while GSMaP_Gauge shows consistent high correlation coefficient (CC) (>0.8) but RB fluctuates between -57.95% and 112.63%. The PERSIANN_CDR outperforms other products in winter with the highest CC (0.67). Both the satellite-only and gauge adjusted products have particularly poor performance in detecting rainfall events in terms of lower POD (less than 65%), CSI (less than 45%) and relatively high FAR (more than 35%). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, bivariate statistical analysis modeling was applied and validated to derive a landslide susceptibility map of Peloponnese (Greece) at a regional scale. For this purpose, landslide-conditioning factors such as elevation, slope, aspect, lithology, land cover, mean annual precipitation (MAP) and peak ground acceleration (PGA), and a landslide inventory were analyzed within a GIS environment. A landslide dataset was realized using two main landslide inventories. The landslide statistical index method (LSI) produced a susceptibility map of the study area and the probability level of landslide occurrence was classified in five categories according to the best classification method from three different methods tested. Model performance was checked by an independent validation set of landslide events. The accuracy of the final result was evaluated by receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis. The prediction ability was found to be 75.2% indicating an acceptable susceptibility map obtained from the GIS-based bivariate statistical model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The results of modeling the conversion factor from rainfall-deposited unit activity of gamma-emitting radon and thoron daughter decay products to their created gamma-radiation dose rate as a function of height above the Earth's surface using the Geant4 toolkit are presented in this paper. Thin layers of water, soil, and air, with the height of 0.1–10 mm, are considered as the source in order to examine whether the composition of the radiation source environment affects the simulation result. Cases with different absorber-atmosphere densities are simulated. The contribution of each radionuclide 212 Bi, 214 Bi, 212 Pb, 214 Pb and 208 Tl to the total gamma background was determined. The dependence of dose rate growth during the precipitation period on the detector position in relation to the area covered by precipitation was investigated numerically. The obtained conversion factors are universal values, because do not depend on soil type (material) on which radionuclides are deposited by precipitation. These coefficients can be used for solving both direct tasks of radiation background recovery during precipitation and inverse tasks of determining the intensity and amount of precipitation by the known gamma background, as well as tasks to decipher the gamma background by the shape of the response to various phenomena. Also in this work, it is shown how thoron decay products can affect the response shape of gamma background on atmospheric precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relation between the atmospheric entropy flow field and local rainfall is examined in terms of the theory of dissipative structures. In this paper, the entropy balance equation in a form suitable for describing the entropy budget of the Earth's atmosphere is derived starting from the Gibbs relation, and, as examples, the entropy flows of the two severe weather events associated with the development of an extratropical cyclone and a tropical storm are calculated, respectively. The results show that negative entropy flow (NEF) has a significant effect on the precipitation intensity and scope with an apparent matching of the NEF's pattern with the rainfall distribution revealed and, that the diagnosis of NEF is able to provide a good indicator for precipitation forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we estimate the trends and variability in Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-derived terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) over India for the period 1982-2006. We find an increasing trend of 3.9% per decade (r = 0.78, R2 = 0.61) during the analysis period. A multivariate linear regression of NPP with temperature, precipitation, atmospheric CO2 concentration, soil water and surface solar radiation (r = 0.80, R2 = 0.65) indicates that the increasing trend is partly driven by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and the consequent CO2 fertilization of the ecosystems. However, human interventions may have also played a key role in the NPP increase: non-forest NPP growth is largely driven by increases in irrigated area and fertilizer use, while forest NPP is influenced by plantation and forest conservation programs. A similar multivariate regression of interannual NPP anomalies with temperature, precipitation, soil water, solar radiation and CO2 anomalies suggests that the interannual variability in NPP is primarily driven by precipitation and temperature variability. Mean seasonal NPP is largest during post-monsoon and lowest during the pre-monsoon period, thereby indicating the importance of soil moisture for vegetation productivity [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When assessing the magnitude of climate signals in a regional scale, a host of optional approaches is feasible. This encompasses the use of regional climate models (RCM), nested into global climate models (GCM) for an area of interest as well as employing empirical statistical downscaling methods (ESD). In this context the question is addressed: Is an empirical statistical downscaling method capable of yielding results that are comparable to those by dynamical RCMs? Based on the presented ESD method, the comparison of RCM and ESD results show a high amount of agreement. In addition the empirical statistical downscaling can be applied directly to a GCM or a GCM-RCM cascade. The paper aims at comparing the consequences of employing various CGM-RCM-ESD combinations on the derived future changes of temperature and precipitation. This adds to the insight on the scale dependency of downscaling strategies. Results for one GCM with several scenario runs driving several RCMs with and without subsequent empirical statistical downscaling are presented. It is shown that there are only small differences between using the GCM results directly or as a GCM-RCM-ESD cascade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a novel framework to determine the number of resolution levels in the application of a wavelet transformation to a rainfall time series. The rainfall time series are decomposed using the à trous wavelet transform. Then, multi-scale entropy (MSE) analysis that helps to elucidate some hidden characteristics of the original rainfall time series is applied to the decomposed rainfall time series. The analysis shows that the Mann-Kendall (MK) rank correlation test of MSE curves of residuals at various resolution levels could determine the number of resolution levels in the wavelet decomposition. The complexity of rainfall time series at four stations on a multi-scale is compared. The results reveal that the suggested number of resolution levels can be obtained using MSE analysis and MK test. The complexity of rainfall time series at various locations can also be analyzed to provide a reference for water resource planning and application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determining the distributions of size and velocity of droplets formed at the end of primary breakup region is followed in this paper. The droplet formation stage at the end of primary breakup is random and stochastic and it can be modeled by statistical means based on the maximum entropy principle (MEP). The MEP formulation predicts the atomization process while satisfying constraint equations based on conservations of mass, momentum and energy. This model is capable of considering drag force on produced droplets through gas-liquid interaction using new approach. The model prediction is compared favorably with the experimentally measured size and velocity distributions of droplets for sprays produced by the two nozzles of considerably different geometries and shows satisfactory agreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With regard to reconstructing the gamma background dose rate, existing models are either empirical with limited applicability or have many unknown input parameters, which complicates their application in practice. Due to this, there is a need to search for a new approach and build a convenient, easily applicable and universal model. The paper proposes a mathematical model for reconstructing the temporal evolution of the ambient equivalent γ -radiation dose rate during rain episodes, depending on the density of radon flux from the soil surface, as well as the duration and intensity of rain. The efficiency of the model is confirmed by the high coefficient of determination ( R 2 = 0.81–0.99) between the measured and reconstructed ambient equivalent dose rate during periods of rain, the simulation of which was performed using Wolfram Mathematica. An algorithm was developed for restoring the dynamics of the ambient equivalent γ -radiation dose rate during rainfall. Based on the results obtained, assumptions were made where the washout of radionuclides originates. The influence of the radionuclides ratio on the increase in the total γ -radiation dose rate was investigated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The plum rain season, caused by precipitation along a persistent stationary Mei-Yu front in East Asia, creates favorable temperatures and relative humidity (RH) for mold growth indoors. This paper investigates the effects of human occupancy on indoor humidity and investigates the efficient RH reduction methods to prevent mold growth in moist climates. The research is carried out based on a case study which compares a family-occupied home and another unoccupied one during typical plum rain season in Nanjing. Firstly, by analyzing the factors that can influence the indoor air RH, this paper develops a comprehensive model to evaluate the efficiency of various RH intervention methods. Secondly, this paper collects the meteorological data in Nanjing at different time scales, from days to hours. Thirdly, a specific case study is carried out based on the model and data. The results show that dehumidification and heating can always reduce RH below the critical value under which the mold growth could be inhibited. However, the effects of ventilation are more sophisticated and depend upon the human occupancy, outdoor air temperature, and air change per hour (ACH). In certain unoccupied cases, the ventilation may be inappropriate and may continuously bring moisture outside into the indoor environment, which has adverse effects on mold suppression. In the occupied cases, the condition changes significantly because the human is deemed as an internal source of heat and moist. Special care should be exercised for occupied ventilation in order to determine the optimal ACH and appropriate outdoor temperatures. Finally, some guidance is given to prevent mold growth in the general area that suffers from the plum rain season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To improve how extreme events and climate variations are managed, there is a need to foster a deeper understanding of their interconnections. Consistent with this objective, this paper describes how precipitation extremes change both temporally and spatially in the Inner Mongolian Plateau (IMP), China and explains their causal factors. The paper refers to data collected from 43 meteorological stations in IMP and describes how precipitation extremes formed and how they influence agriculture. Data gathered and presented in this paper may be useful in understanding the extent to which the IMP is being influenced by global environmental change. This study reveals that the eleven precipitation extremes indices, except the number of precipitation days with over 0.5 mm (R0.5), number of heavy precipitation days (R10), and total precipitation in wet days (PRCPTOT), decreased in the IMP between 1959 and 2014, and most of them were non-significant in temporal. But the dry index has a larger magnitude decreasing trend than that of the wet indices, which can indicate that the dry situation was alleviated in IMP during the study interval. This study also indicated that precipitation extremes have strong relationships with elevation, latitude, and longitude. Atmospheric circulation and topography may be further primary reasons which result in the spatial variation characteristics in precipitation extremes over the IMP. Decreases in precipitation extremes, together with human activities such as livestock improvement and ecological restoration programs, has a positive effect in gross output value of agriculture and animal husbandry in the IMP. The results contribute to a deeper insight on the possible impacts of precipitation extremes and support the development of appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with climate extremes. This paper further proposes science-based policies for grassland protection, agriculture, and animal husbandry on the national or regional and herdsman scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flash drought is the result of strong precipitation deficits and/or anomalous increases in atmospheric evaporative demand (AED), which triggers a rapid decline in soil moisture and stresses vegetation over short periods of time. However, little is known about the role of precipitation and AED in the development of flash droughts. For this paper, we compared the standardized precipitation index (SPI) based on precipitation, the evaporative demand drought index (EDDI) based on AED, and the standardized evaporation precipitation index (SPEI) based on the differences between precipitation and AED as flash drought indicators for mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands for 1961–2018. The results show large differences in the spatial and temporal patterns of flash droughts between indices. In general, there was a high degree of consistency between the flash drought patterns identified by the SPI and SPEI, with the exception of southern Spain in the summer. The EDDI showed notable spatial and temporal differences from the SPI in winter and summer, while it exhibited great coherence with the SPEI in summer. We also examined the sensitivity of the SPEI to AED in each month of the year to explain its contribution to the possible development of flash droughts. Our findings showed that precipitation is the main driver of flash droughts in Spain, although AED can play a key role in the development of these during periods of low precipitation, especially in the driest areas and in summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The electrical state of the surface atmosphere changes significantly under the influence of cloudiness and atmospheric phenomena, including atmospheric precipitation. These features can be used for possible diagnostics of precipitation and improvement of their characteristics based on variations of atmospheric-electrical quantities in the surface layer. Studies of variations of meteorological and atmospheric-electrical quantities in the surface layer were carried out during the heavy rainfall associated with the cumulonimbus (Cb) clouds passage. Meteorological and atmospheric-electrical observations in the Geophysical Observatory of the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems are presented in this paper. Precipitation data are used to identify periods of heavy rainfall ≥ 5 mm/h. Information of weather stations and satellites is used to separate the heavy rainfall events by synoptic conditions like thunderstorms and showers of frontal or internal air masses. We find that rains associated with the frontal Cb clouds produce more abrupt changes in negative electrical conductivity in comparison with the Cb clouds in internal air masses. The significant increase in negative electrical conductivity (more than two times vs. normal values) occurs typically during the passage of frontal Cb and heavy rain with droplet size greater than 4 mm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study mainly examined the relationships among primary productivity, precipitation and temperature by identifying trends of change embedded in time-series data. The paper also explores spatial variations of the relationship over four types of vegetation and across two precipitation zones in Inner Mongolia, China. Traditional analysis of vegetation response to climate change uses minimum, maximum, average or cumulative measurements; focuses on a whole region instead of fine-scale regional or ecological variations; or adopts generic analysis techniques. We innovatively integrate Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Redundancy Analysis (RDA) to overcome the weakness of traditional approaches. The EMD filtered trend surfaces reveal clear patterns of Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), precipitation, and temperature changes in both time and space. The filtered data decrease noises and cyclic fluctuations in the original data and are more suitable for examining linear relationship than the original data. RDA is further applied to reveal partial effect of precipitation and temperature, and their joint effect on primary productivity. The main findings are as follows: (1) We need to examine relationships between the trends of change of the variables of interest when investigating long-term relationships among them. (2) Long-term trend of change of precipitation or temperature can become a critical factor influencing primary productivity depending on local environments. (3) Synchronization (joint effect) of precipitation and temperature in growing season is critically important to primary productivity in the study area. (4) Partial and joint effects of precipitation and temperature on primary productivity vary over different precipitation zones and different types of vegetation. The method developed in this paper is applicable to ecosystem research in other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the mitochondrial matrix, there are insoluble, osmotically inactive complexes that maintain a constant pH and calcium concentration. In the present paper, we examine the properties of insoluble calcium and magnesium salts, such as phosphates, carbonates and polyphosphates, which might play this role. We find that non-stoichiometric, magnesium-rich carbonated apatite, with very low crystallinity, precipitates in the matrix under physiological conditions. Precipitated salt acts as pH buffer, and, hence, can contribute in maintaining ATP production in ischemic conditions, which delays irreversible damage to heart and brain cells after stroke. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Marshall-Olkin extended family of distributions is an alternative for modeling lifetimes, and considers more or less asymmetry than its parent model, achieved by incorporating just one extra parameter. We investigate the bias of maximum likelihood estimators and use it to develop an estimator with less bias than traditional estimators, by a modification of the score function. Unlike other proposals, in this paper, we consider a bias reduction methodology that can be applied to any member of the family and not necessarily to any particular distribution. We conduct a Monte Carlo simulation in order to study the performance of the corrected estimators in finite samples. This simulation shows that the maximum likelihood estimator is quite biased and the proposed estimator is much less biased; in small sample sizes, the bias is reduced by around 50 percent. Two applications, related to the air conditioning system of an airplane and precipitations, are presented to illustrate the results. In those applications, the bias reduction for the shape parameters is close to 25% and the bias reduction also reduces, among others things, the width of the 95% confidence intervals for quantiles lower than 0.594. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents an experimental study on microstructure changes in duplex steel after hot deformation. Duplex steels and cast steels are characterized by a multiphase microstructure. They are relatively new materials with great contributions to the many fields of industries. Due to the fact of deforming two different phase austenite and ferrite those materials have a complex plasticity. This work is a continuation and complementation of previous works and is a significant supplement to information presented in them. The article concerns precipitation phenomena and changes in the microstructure of two grades of ferritic-austenitic steels: X2CrNiMoN25-7-4 and X2CrNiMoCuN25-6-3. Those steels have a very similar chemical composition, differing by only 2.5% copper content. An important aspect presented in the work is we observed that adding 2.5% copper prevented precipitation of the destructive sigma phase during the hot deformation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The results of metrological, hydrological, and environmental data analyses are mainly dependent on the reliable estimation of missing data. In this study, 21 classical methods were evaluated to determine the best method for infilling the missing precipitation data in Ethiopia. The monthly data collected from 15 different stations over 34 years from 1980 to 2013 were considered. Homogeneity and trend tests were performed to check the data. The results of the different methods were compared using the mean absolute error (MAE), root-mean-square error (RMSE), coefficient of efficiency (CE), similarity index (S-index), skill score (SS), and Pearson correlation coefficient (rPearson). The results of this paper confirmed that the normal ratio (NR), multiple linear regression (MLR), inverse distance weighting (IDW), correlation coefficient weighting (CCW), and arithmetic average (AA) methods are the most reliable methods of those studied. The NR method provides the most accurate estimations with rPearson of 0.945, mean absolute error of 22.90 mm, RMSE of 33.695 mm, similarity index of 0.999, CE index of 0.998, and skill score of 0.998. When comparing the observed results and the estimated results from the NR, MLR, IDW, CCW, and AA methods, the MAE and RMSE were found to be low, and high values of CE, S-index, SS, and rPearson were achieved. On the other hand, using the closet station (CS), UK traditional, linear regression (LR), expectation maximization (EM), and multiple imputations (MI) methods gave the lowest accuracy, with MAE and RMSE values varying from 30.424 to 47.641 mm and from 49.564 to 58.765 mm, respectively. The results of this study suggest that the recommended methods are applicable for different types of climatic data in Ethiopia and arid regions in other countries around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study utilizes three high-resolution simulations from the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) to examine the late 21st century changes (2080–2099) in the West African Monsoon (WAM) features. A set of three Earth System Models are utilized to provide initial and lateral boundary conditions to the RegCM4 experiments. Our analysis focuses on seasonal mean changes in WAM large-scale dynamical features, along with their connections with the summer monsoon precipitation. In the historical period, the simulation ensemble means mimic reasonably well the intensity and spatial distribution of the WAM rainfall as well as the WAM circulation patterns at different scales. The future projection of the WAM climate exhibits warming over the whole West Africa leading to precipitation reduction over the Sahel region, and a slight increase over some areas of the Guinea Coast. The position of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) is shifted southward and the African Easterly Waves (AEWs) activities are reduced, which affect in turn the WAM rainbelt characteristics in terms of position and strength. Overall the changes in simulated AEJ and AEWs contribute substantially to reduce the seasonal summer mean precipitation in West Africa by the late 21st century, with prevailing negative changes in the Savanna-Sahel region. To further explore the robustness of the relationships revealed in this paper, future studies using different high-resolution regional climate models with large ensemble are recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling the relationship between precipitation and water level is of great significance in the prevention of flood disaster. In recent years, the use of machine learning algorithms for precipitation–water level prediction has attracted wide attention in flood forecasting and other fields; however, a clear method to model the relationship of precipitation and water level using grid precipitation products with a neural network model is lacking. The issues of the method include how to select a neural network model, as well as how to influence the modeling results with different types and resolutions of remote sensing data. The purpose of this paper is to provide some findings for the issues. We used the back-propagation (BP) neural network and a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) time series network to model the relationship between precipitation and water level, respectively. The water level of Pingshan hydrographic station at a catchment area in the Jinsha River Basin was simulated by the two network models using three different grid precipitation products. The results showed that when the ground station data are missing, the grid precipitation product is a good alternative to construct the precipitation–water level relationship. In addition, using the NARX network as a model fitting network using extra inputs was better than using the BP neural network; the Nash efficiency coefficients of the former were all higher than 97%, while the latter were all lower than 94%. Furthermore, the input of grid products with different spatial resolutions has little significant effect on the modeling results of the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study addressed yam production in response to climate change in Cross River State using a co-integration model approach. The specific objectives of this paper are to analyze the trend in yam production, annual precipitation, and annual temperature, and to analyze the impact of climate variables on yam production. Time-series data from 1996 to 2017 was used. Based on the analysis, which constituted a linear trend analysis, co-integration test, and error correction model, the study came up with robust findings. The linear trend analysis for yam production revealed a steady increase in output between the years 2005 and 2016. The result of the rainfall trend analysis showed the presence of rainfall variability and irregularity. The trend line for temperature showed an overall downward trend for the period under study. However, the Error Correction Model result showed that temperature was statistically significant and negatively impacted yam production. The study recommends that policymakers should take appropriate steps to encourage the development of pest- and disease-tolerant yam varieties because an increase in temperature leads to the proliferation of insects, pests, and diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal changes control the development of salt crust over the Salar de Aguas Calientes Sur located in Andes Highlands, Chile. Precipitations throughout the Altiplanic winter (December to March) and austral winter (June to September) caused ponds to enlarge and surface salt crusts to dissolve driving roughness and dielectric features of the salar surface change over time. A four-year time series backscattering coefficient analysis, obtained by Sentinel 1 and ALOS-2/PALSAR-2 with 10 m of spatial resolution, demonstrated the capability of microwaves to discriminate seasonal patterns illustrated in this paper. Both sensors showed to be sensitive to changes in the surface crust due to weather conditions. Backscattered power gradually increased during the driest months as the rough salt crusts develop and decreased rapidly due to precipitations or flooding events, which lead to a smoothing appearance to radar. The high temporal frequency of acquisition in Sentinel 1 (5–13 scenes/month) allowed the discrimination among climate and annual seasonality and episodic events in the C-band backscatter coefficient. On the other hand, ALOS-2/PALSAR-2 showed subsurface changes at L-band since the salinity of the brine in the soil reduces the penetration depth of backscattered power for shorter wavelengths. Results might be useful to monitor salars with geographic and weather conditions similar to Salar de Aguas Calientes Sur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the centennial-scale observations and CMIP6 historical simulations, this paper employs the ensemble empirical mode decomposition to extract the decadal-to-multidecadal variability of land precipitation (DMVLP) in the northern hemisphere. The spatial distributions of the dominant mode from the empirical orthogonal function are different in four seasons. Regions with the same sign of precipitation anomalies are likely to be teleconnected through oceanic forcing. The temporal evolutions of the leading modes are similar in winter and spring, with an amplitude increasing after the late 1970s, probably related to the overlap of oceanic multidecadal signals. In winter and spring, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) play a joint role. They were in phase before late 1970s and out of phase after then, weakening/strengthening the impacts of the North Pacific and North Atlantic on the DMVLP before/after late 1970s. In summer and autumn, AMO alone plays a part and the amplitude of time series does not vary as in winter and spring. The ability of the coupled models from CMIP6 historical simulations is also evaluated. The good-models average largely captures the spatial structure in four seasons and the associated oceanic signals. The poor-models average is hardly or weakly correlated with observation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Near real-time precipitation is essential to many applications. In Africa, the lack of dense rain-gauge networks and ground weather radars makes the use of satellite precipitation products unavoidable. Despite major progresses in estimating precipitation rate from remote sensing measurements over the past decades, satellite precipitation products still suffer from quantitative uncertainties and biases compared to ground data. Consequently, almost all precipitation products are provided in two modes: a real-time mode (also called early-run or raw product) and a corrected mode (also called final-run, adjusted or post-processed product) in which ground precipitation measurements are integrated in algorithms to correct for bias, generally at a monthly timescale. This paper describes a new methodology to provide a near-real-time precipitation product based on satellite precipitation and soil moisture measurements. Recent studies have shown that soil moisture intrinsically contains information on past precipitation and can be used to correct precipitation uncertainties. The PrISM (Precipitation inferred from Soil Moisture) methodology is presented and its performance is assessed for five in situ rainfall measurement networks located in Africa in semi-arid to wet areas: Niger, Benin, Burkina Faso, Central Africa, and East Africa. Results show that the use of SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) satellite soil moisture measurements in the PrISM algorithm most often improves the real-time satellite precipitation products, and provides results comparable to existing adjusted products, such as TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission), GPCC (Global Precipitation Climatology Centre) and IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM), which are available a few weeks or months after their detection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are currently different types of commercial optical disdrometers to measure the rainfall intensity, of which many are commonly used for monitoring road conditions. Having information about the amount of rain, the composition of the precipitation particles and visibility are essential to avoid accidents, which requires intelligent systems that warn drivers and redirect traffic. However, few studies related to Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) have been performed regarding why these devices are not optimized for this type of applications. Therefore, this paper analyzes and evaluates the operating mode of these equipment through their theoretical model, which will allow the design of prototypes of disdrometers with different characteristics. In addition, this model will be implemented in a simulation program, through which an exhaustive study analyzing how the type of precipitation and its intensity affect the measures provided by the model will be conducted. In this way, the results will help optimize its operation to be thus used in urban settings, which will allow obtaining more accurate real-time information, better traffic management, and a reduction in the number of accidents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thunderstorms in southeastern South America (SESA) stand out in satellite observations as being among the strongest on Earth in terms of satellite-based convective proxies, such as lightning flash rate per storm, the prevalence for extremely tall, wide convective cores and broad stratiform regions. Accurately quantifying when and where strong convection is initiated presents great interest in operational forecasting and convective system process studies due to the relationship between convective storms and severe weather phenomena. This paper generates a novel methodology to determine convective initiation (CI) signatures associated with extreme convective systems, including extreme events. Based on the well-established area-overlapping technique, an adaptive brightness temperature threshold for identification and backward tracking with infrared data is introduced in order to better identify areas of deep convection associated with and embedded within larger cloud clusters. This is particularly important over SESA because ground-based weather radar observations are currently limited to particular areas. Extreme rain precipitation features (ERPFs) from Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission are examined to quantify the full satellite-observed life cycle of extreme convective events, although this technique allows examination of other intense convection proxies such as the identification of overshooting tops. CI annual and diurnal cycles are analyzed and distinctive behaviors are observed for different regions over SESA. It is found that near principal mountain barriers, a bimodal diurnal CI distribution is observed denoting the existence of multiple CI triggers, while convective initiation over flat terrain has a maximum frequency in the afternoon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of urbanization on regional precipitation is one of the most important issues in hydrology. This paper selected the North Haihe Basin as the study area and explored the connection between summer precipitation and urbanization index (URBI) based on satellite precipitation and nighttime lights datasets. A moving spatial percentage anomaly method (MSP) was used to signify the local induced enhancement of precipitation (LIEP). Local indicators of spatial association (LISA) clustering for LIEP and URBI based on Bivariate Moran's I coupled with digital elevation model (DEM) segmentation was used to separate the impacts caused by urbanization and terrain uplifting, and thus, the regions of interest (ROI) where the urban induced enhancement of precipitation (UIEP) plays a dominant role were located. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was used to reveal the spatial variation of the sensitivity of UIEP to URBI within the ROI. Pearson correlation and cross-wavelet analyses (XWT) were adopted to investigate the teleconnection between UIEP and climate anomalies, using Niño3.4 and SOI as indices. The results indicated that: (1) Urbanization effects on precipitation spatial variation in the upstream mountainous area would be hidden away by topographic factors. (2) From the perspective of the basin, the highest urbanization level areas have the Lowest LIEP, while the suburban areas have the highest LIEP, and the rural areas are in the middle. (3) The UIEP and the URBI are generally negatively correlated within ROI. (4) UIEP versus Niño3.4 and SOI both show a significant common high-power period at a time scale of 2 years. This work can help comprehensively understand the hydrological response to urbanization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate estimation of precipitation is crucial for fundamental input to various hydrometeorological applications. Ground-based precipitation data suffer limitations associated with spatial resolution and coverage; hence, satellite precipitation products can be used to complement traditional rain gauge systems. However, the satellite precipitation data need to be validated before extensive use in the applications. Hence, we conducted a thorough validation of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals (IMERG) product for all of Iran. The study focused on investigating the performance of daily and monthly GPM IMERG (early, late, final, and monthly) products by comparing them with ground-based precipitation data at synoptic stations throughout the country (2014–2017). The spatial and temporal performance of the GPM IMERG was evaluated using eight statistical criteria considering the rainfall index at the country level. The rainfall detection ability index (POD) showed that the best IMERG product's performance is for the spring season while the false alarm ratio (FAR) index indicated the inferior performance of the IMERG products for the summer season. The performance of the products generally increased from IMERG-Early to –Final according to the relative bias (rBIAS) results while, based on the quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plots, the IMERG-Final could not be suggested for the applications relying on extreme rainfall estimates compared to IMERG-Early and -Late. The results in this paper improve the understanding of IMERG product's performance and open a door to future studies regarding hydrometeorological applications of these products in Iran. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]