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In a competitive electricity market, generation capacities can exactly cover their full costs. However, the real market deviates from this ideal in some aspects. One is the concern of non-existent or insufficient scarcity prices. We present an iterative method in a linear optimization model to investigate the profitability of assets in the absence of scarcity prices and how the system changes when this risk is incorporated into investors' expectations. Therefore, we use a two-step optimization of capacity planning and unit commitment. Iteratively, mark-ups at the height of uncovered costs are added to investment costs. This typically leads to a system with better investment profitability while keeping the system cost increase low. The methodology is applied to a simplified brownfield generation system, targeting CO2-free power generation within 25 years. In a model with annual foresight of actors, iterations result in a generation system with significantly lower (or even no) uncovered costs for new investments within ten or fewer iterations. Our example case with full foresight shows that early-added gas (combined cycle) and wind onshore capacities are able to recover their full costs over a lifetime, even without scarcity prices. However, the contribution margin gap remains high, especially for storage and biomass. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reduction in the operational cost of a biofuel refinery is vitally important to make biofuel competitive with fossil fuels. The aim of this paper is to find a cost-efficient and sustainable refinery capacity for grain-based ethanol (i.e., corn-based ethanol) production, which will play an important role in promoting the widespread adoption and sustainable use of ethanol, by improving the productivity of the overall refining process. Continuous-event simulation was utilized in this study to model complex operations of a refinery such as the loading, unloading and treatment of feedstock over nine major phases (e.g., feedstock storage and handling, pretreatment and conditioning, fermentation and hydrolysis, and enzyme production) to produce ethanol. To improve the model prediction, the real data of corn yield produced in Tazewell County, Illinois, U.S. were used. The proposed simulation model is implemented in AnyLogic® University 8.6.0 simulation software, Chicago, IL, USA, and the (near) optimal number of reactors for the hydrolysis and fermentation is found via optimization software known as OptQuest®, Boulder, CO, USA, As a result, the proposed approach found that six reactors showed the optimal daily profit from USD 67,500 to 82,217. This information will help engineers and policy makers to modify the capacity of a biofuel refinery for enhancement of the system efficiency and ethanol production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Distributed wind power (DWP) needs to be consumed locally under a 110 kV network without reverse power flow in China. To maximize the use of DWP, this paper proposes a novel method for capacity planning of DWP with participation of the energy storage system (ESS) in multiple scenarios by means of a variable-structure copula and optimization theory. First, wind power and local load are predicted at the planning stage by an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, then, variable-structure copula models are established based on different time segment strategies to depict the correlation of DWP and load, and the joint typical scenarios of DWP and load are generated by clustering, and a capacity planning model of DWP is proposed considering investment and operation cost, and environmental benefit and line loss cost under typical scenario conditions. Moreover, a collaborative capacity planning model for DWP and ESS is prospectively proposed. Based on the modified IEEE-33 bus system, the results of the case study show that the DWP capacity result is more reasonable after considering the correlation of wind and load by using a variable-structure copula. With consideration of the collaborative planning of DWP and load, the consumption of DWP is further improved, the annual cost of the system is more economical, and the quality of voltage is effectively improved. The study results validate the proposed method and provide effective reference for the planning strategy of DWP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we investigated the time-varying capacitated lot-sizing problem under a fast-changing production environment, where production factors such as the setup costs, inventory-holding costs, production capacities, or even material prices may be subject to continuous changes during the entire planning horizon. Traditional lot-sizing theorems and algorithms, which often assume a constant production environment, are no longer fit for this situation. We analyzed the time-varying environment of today's agile enterprises and modeled the time-varying setup costs and the time-varying production capacities. Based on these, we presented two mixed-integer linear programming models for the time-varying capacitated single-level lot-sizing problem and the time-varying capacitated multi-level lot-sizing problem, respectively, with considerations on the impact of time-varying environments and dynamic capacity constraints. New properties of these models were analyzed on the solution's feasibility and optimality. The solution quality was evaluated in terms of the entropy which indicated that the optimized production system had a lower value than that of the unoptimized one. A number of computational experiments were conducted on well-known benchmark problem instances using the AMPL/CPLEX to verify the proposed models and to test the computational effectiveness and efficiency, which showed that the new models are applicable to the time-varying environment. Two of the benchmark problems were updated with new best-known solutions in the experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]