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Accurate quantification of evapotranspiration (ET) at the watershed scale remains an important research challenge for managing water resources in arid and semiarid areas. In this study, daily latent heat flux (LE) maps at the kilometer scale were derived from the two-source energy budget (TSEB) model fed by the MODIS leaf area index (LAI), land surface temperature (LST) products, and meteorological data from ERA-Interim reanalysis from 2001 to 2015 on the Tensift catchment (center of Morocco). As a preliminary step, both ERA-Interim and predicted LE at the time of the satellite overpass are evaluated in comparison to a large database of in situ meteorological measurements and eddy covariance (EC) observations, respectively. ERA-Interim compared reasonably well to in situ measurements, but a positive bias on air temperature was highlighted because meteorological stations used for the evaluation were mainly installed on irrigated fields while the grid point of ERA-Interim is representative of larger areas including bare (and hot) soil. Likewise, the predicted LE was in good agreement with the EC measurements gathered on the main crops of the region during 15 agricultural seasons with a correlation coefficient r = 0.70 and a reasonable bias of 30 W/m2. After extrapolating the instantaneous LE estimates to ET daily values, monthly ET was then assessed in comparison to monthly irrigation water amounts provided by the local agricultural office added to CRU precipitation dataset with a reasonable agreement; the relative error was more than 89% but the correlation coefficient r reached 0.80. Seasonal and interannual evapotranspiration was analyzed in relation to local climate and land use. Lastly, the potential use for improving the early prediction of grain yield, as well as detecting newly irrigated areas for arboriculture, is also discussed. The proposed method provides a relatively simple way for obtaining spatially distributed daily estimates of ET at the watershed scale, especially for not ungauged catchments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate seasonal forecasting of cereal yields is an important decision support tool for countries, such as Morocco, that are not self-sufficient in order to predict, as early as possible, importation needs. This study aims to develop an early forecasting model of cereal yields (soft wheat, barley and durum wheat) at the scale of the agricultural province considering the 15 most productive over 2000–2017 (i.e., 15 × 18 = 270 yields values). To this objective, we built on previous works that showed a tight linkage between cereal yields and various datasets including weather data (rainfall and air temperature), regional climate indices (North Atlantic Oscillation in particular), and drought indices derived from satellite observations in different wavelengths. The combination of the latter three data sets is assessed to predict cereal yields using linear (Multiple Linear Regression, MLR) and non-linear (Support Vector Machine, SVM; Random Forest, RF, and eXtreme Gradient Boost, XGBoost) machine learning algorithms. The calibration of the algorithmic parameters of the different approaches are carried out using a 5-fold cross validation technique and a leave-one-out method is implemented for model validation. The statistical metrics of the models are first analyzed as a function of the input datasets that are used, and as a function of the lead times, from 4 months to 2 months before harvest. The results show that combining data from multiple sources outperformed models based on one dataset only. In addition, the satellite drought indices are a major source of information for cereal prediction when the forecasting is carried out close to harvest (2 months before), while weather data and, to a lesser extent, climate indices, are key variables for earlier predictions. The best models can accurately predict yield in January (4 months before harvest) with an R2 = 0.88 and RMSE around 0.22 t. ha−1. The XGBoost method exhibited the best metrics. Finally, training a specific model separately for each group of provinces, instead of one global model, improved the prediction performance by reducing the RMSE by 10% to 35% depending on the provinces. In conclusion, the results of this study pointed out that combining remote sensing drought indices with climate and weather variables using a machine learning technique is a promising approach for cereal yield forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Morocco, cereal production shows high interannual variability due to uncertain rainfall and recurrent drought periods. Considering the socioeconomic importance of cereal for the country, there is a serious need to characterize the impact of drought on cereal yields. In this study, drought is assessed through (1) indices derived from remote sensing data (the vegetation condition index (VCI), temperature condition index (TCI), vegetation health ind ex (VHI), soil moisture condition index (SMCI) and soil water index for different soil layers (SWI)) and (2) key land surface variables (Land Area Index (LAI), soil moisture (SM) at different depths, soil evaporation and plant transpiration) from a Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) over 2000–2017. A lagged correlation analysis was conducted to assess the relationships between the drought indices and cereal yield at monthly time scales. The VCI and LAI around the heading stage (March-April) are highly linked to yield for all provinces (R = 0.94 for the Khemisset province), while a high link for TCI occurs during the development stage in January-February (R = 0.83 for the Beni Mellal province). Interestingly, indices related to soil moisture in the superficial soil layer are correlated with yield earlier in the season around the emergence stage (December). The results demonstrate the clear added value of using an LDAS compared with using a remote sensing product alone, particularly concerning the soil moisture in the root-zone, considered a key variable for yield production, that is not directly observable from space. The time scale of integration is also discussed. By integrating the indices on the main phenological stages of wheat using a dynamic threshold approach instead of the monthly time scale, the correlation between indices and yield increased by up to 14%. In addition, the contributions of VCI and TCI to VHI were optimized by using yield anomalies as proxies for drought. This study opens perspectives for the development of drought early warning systems in Morocco and over North Africa, as well as for seasonal crop yield forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]