Search

This document discusses the impact of climate change on salmonid fishes in rivers. Climate warming poses a serious threat to these cold-adapted ectotherms, leading to population declines, genetic and phenotypic changes, and alterations in behavior, physiology, and distribution. Climate change also affects habitats, including flow regimes, vegetation, oxygen concentration, and water turbidity. The document highlights the importance of understanding these alterations to improve habitat and population management. It also provides insights into the effects of temperature on metabolic rates, genetic diversity, transcriptome, migration patterns, river flow, growth, and predator-prey interactions. The document concludes with a literature review on climate impacts on Pacific and Atlantic salmon, offering guidance for stakeholders, managers, and researchers. [Extracted from the article]

Simple Summary: When species from one place invade and settle in another, it can cause serious problems for the local environment. These invasions, known as bio-invasions, disrupt natural ecosystems and can lead to major changes. The Mediterranean Sea is especially at risk because the water conditions are changing rapidly due to climate change, which, coupled with the opening of the Suez Canal, creates an appropriate environment for species from the Red Sea to move in. In May 2023, divers found a type of soft coral called Dendronephthya, that is new to the Mediterranean Sea near Israel. This coral is normally found in the Indo-Pacific region and is common in the Red Sea. Using molecular and morphological analysis, we confirmed the identity of the coral. Because this coral can attach swiftly to surfaces and grow quickly, it is expected to spread rapidly and become more common throughout the Mediterranean Sea. Bio-invasions have the potential to provoke cascade effects that can disrupt natural ecosystems and cause ecological regime shifts. The Mediterranean Sea is particularly prone to bio-invasions as the changing water conditions, evoked by climate change, are creating advantageous conditions for Lessepsian migrants from the Red Sea. Recently, in May 2023, a new alien species was documented in the Mediterranean Sea—a soft coral of the genus Dendronephthya. This discovery was made by divers conducting 'Long-Term Ecological Research' surveys, along the coast of Israel, at a depth of 42 m. Genetic and morphological testing suggest that the species identity may be Dendronepthya hemprichi, an Indo-Pacific coral, common in the Red Sea. According to life history traits of this species, such as accelerated attachment to available surfaces and fast growth, we expect it to rapidly expand its distribution and abundance across the Mediterranean Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Long-term research tends to fall short in the fast-track "publish or perish" research era, even in ecology where it is proven time and time again that natural community variability is sometimes hard to distinguish from the community's response to environmental stressors. In this research, we present how unimpacted freshwater habitats and the dipteran communities therein deal with changing climate and discharge conditions with regard to community structure. Distinguishing "normal" from "extreme" events and taxa indicative of these periods was made possible only after analyzing long-term data. This research presents how freshwater indicator taxa and local dipteran diversity change significantly with regard to extremes in discharge regimes. Most ecologists have used climate change, as an omnipresent pressure, to support their findings in researching the vulnerability of specific taxa, communities, or ecosystems. However, there is a widespread lack of long-term biological, biocoenological, or community data of periods longer than several years to ascertain patterns as to how climate change affects communities. Since the 1950s, southern Europe has faced an ongoing trend of drying and loss of precipitation. A 13-year research program in the Dinaric karst ecoregion of Croatia aimed to comprehensively track emergence patterns of freshwater insects (true flies: Diptera) in a pristine aquatic environment. Three sites, spring, upper, and lower tufa barriers (calcium carbonate barriers on a barrage lake system that act as natural damns), were sampled monthly over 154 months. This coincided with a severe drought event in 2011/2012. This was the most significant drought (very low precipitation rates for an extended period of time) in the Croatian Dinaric ecoregion since the start of detailed records in the early 20th century. Significant shifts in dipteran taxa occurrence were determined using indicator species analysis. Patterns of seasonal and yearly dynamics were presented as Euclidian distance metrics of similarity in true fly community composition compared at increasing time intervals, to ascertain the degree of temporal variability of similarity within the community of a specific site and to define patterns of similarity change over time. Analyses detected significant shifts in community structure linked to changes in discharge regimes, especially to the drought period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has greatly altered plant habitats, resulting in greater biodiversity loss at different scales. Therefore, it is important to quantify such changes for better monitoring and conservation. In this study, we adapt the EUROMOVE model and its mean stable area indicator (MSAi) to the conditions in the Czech Republic. Our objective was to predict change in species richness from a representative pool of 687 species from 1990 to 2100 under the RCP 8.5 climate scenario, focusing on the current period (2018). Another objective was to assess the effectiveness of the MSAi as a tool for quantifying landscape vulnerability. Our result shows that species habitat expanded between 1990 and 2018, although about 2 per cent of species were lost. The average MSAi of the most favourable highland habitats may decrease from 0.85 to 0.65 by 2100 as >20% of baseline species may be lost. Indicator species of Alnus (alder) and Festuca (fescue), typical of lowland habitats, are among the most vulnerable, already showing a net loss of their current habitat extent. The MSAi can be applied as a comprehensive tool to quantify the impact of climate change on landscape vulnerability as more survey data becomes available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exogenous drivers may cause a gradual and reversible change in a lake equilibrium, or they may force it over a threshold to a persistent alternative stable state, described as a regime shift in the ecosystem. In the mid-and-lower Yangtze River Basin (MLYB), major environmental problems in shallow lakes have been eutrophication and abrupt algal blooms under anthropogenic disturbances for the recent century. Much value is therefore placed on understanding the changes in shallow-lake ecosystems that characteristically precede changes in the state of the lake. Here, we describe a case study of the paleolimnological signature in diatom assemblages of various types of regime shifts caused by historically documented anthropogenic drivers in a temperate shallow lake: Taibai Lake. We evaluate the effectiveness of paleolimnological data as a surrogate for long-term monitoring. Algorithms using sequential t and F statistics detected breakpoints in the time series of diatom assemblages, in 1994–1996, 1974–1977, 1952–1956, and 1931–1934, respectively. The regression statistics suggest that the hydrodynamic–ecosystem and aquacultural–ecosystem relationships fit better in the breakpoint regression model, and the relationship between nutrient loading and ecosystem state suits the linear model. Feedback loops help reconstruct dynamic changes in Taibai influenced by major stressors. Our study exemplifies the value of system approaches to identifying regime shifts and their possible causes in shallow lakes from paleolimnological records. The case study of Taibai set an example of reconstructing the ecological regime shifts in shallow lakes in the MLYB and understanding the state changes in lake ecosystems, which will benefit effective lake management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of an ecosystem to external drivers may not always be gradual and reversible. Discontinuous and sometimes irreversible changes, called 'regime shifts' or 'critical transitions', can occur. The likelihood of such shifts is expected to increase for a variety of ecosystems, and it is difficult to predict how close an ecosystem is to a critical transition. Recent modelling studies identified indicators of impending regime shifts that can be used to provide early warning signals of a critical transition. The identification of such transitions crucially depends on the ability to monitor key ecosystem variables, and their success may be limited by lack of appropriate data. Moreover, empirical demonstrations of the actual functioning of these indicators in real-world ecosystems are rare. This paper presents the first study which uses remote sensing data to identify a critical transition in a wetland ecosystem. In this study, we argue that a time series of remote sensing data can help to characterize and determine the timing of a critical transition. This can enhance our abilities to detect and anticipate them. We explored the potentials of remotely sensed vegetation (NDVI), water (MNDWI), and vegetation-water (VWR) indices, obtained from time series of MODIS satellite images to characterize the stability of a wetland ecosystem, Dorge Sangi, near the lake Urmia, Iran, that experienced a regime shift recently. In addition, as a control case, we applied the same methods to another wetland ecosystem in Lake Arpi, Armenia which did not experience a regime shift. We propose a new composite index (MVWR) based on combining vegetation and water indices, which can improve the ability to anticipate a critical transition in a wetland ecosystem. Our results revealed that MVWR in combination with autocorrelation at-lag-1 could successfully provide early warning signals for a critical transition in a wetland ecosystem, and showed a significantly improved performance compared to either vegetation (NDVI) or water (MNDWI) indices alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urbanization and related land consumption are one of the main causes of ecosystem services loss. This is especially the case for soil-related services affecting ecosystem functions and limiting accessibility to natural resources. Satellite remote sensing and environmental databases enable in-depth analysis of urban expansion and land changes, which can be used to monitor trends in the provision of ecosystem services. This work aims to describe a multilayered approach to the assessment of biophysical loss of ecosystem services flows in Italy caused by an increase in land consumption in the period 2012–2020. The results show higher losses in wood production, carbon storage, hydrological regime regulation, and pollination in the northern regions of Italy, as well as in some southern regions, such as Campania and Apulia. Habitat quality loss is widespread throughout Italy, whereas crop production loss varies on the basis of the locations in which it occurs and the crop types involved. Loss of arable land and fodder production mainly occurs in northern regions, whereas southern regions have experienced a drop in permanent crop production. This study highlights the importance of using integrated data and methodologies for well-founded approaches, with a view to gaining a thorough understanding of ecosystem services-related processes and the changes connected therewith. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is one of the biggest challenges of our times. Its impact on human populations is not yet completely understood. Many studies have focused on single aspects with contradictory observations. However, climate change is a complex phenomenon that cannot be adequately addressed from a single discipline's perspective. Hence, we propose a comprehensive conceptual framework on the relationships between climate change and human responses. This framework includes biological, psychological, and behavioural aspects and provides a multidisciplinary overview and critical information for focused interventions. The role of tipping points and regime shifts is explored, and a historical perspective is presented to describe the relationship between climate evolution and socio-cultural crisis. Vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation are analysed from an individual and a community point of view. Finally, emergent behaviours and mass effect phenomena are examined that account for mental maladjustment and conflicts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate extremes are becoming more frequent with global climate change and have the potential to cause major ecological regime shifts. Along the northern Gulf of Mexico, a coastal wetland in Texas suffered sudden vegetation dieback following an extreme precipitation and flooding event associated with Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Historical salt marsh dieback events have been linked to climate extremes, such as extreme drought. However, to our knowledge, this is the first example of extreme precipitation and flooding leading to mass mortality of the salt marsh foundation species, Spartina alterniflora. Here, we investigated the relationships between baseline climate conditions, extreme climate conditions, and large-scale plant mortality to provide an indicator of ecosystem vulnerability to extreme precipitation events. We identified plant zonal boundaries along an elevation gradient with plant species tolerant of hypersaline conditions, including succulents and graminoids, at higher elevations, and flood-tolerant species, including S. alterniflora, at lower elevations. We quantified a flooding threshold for wetland collapse under baseline conditions characterized by incremental increases in flooding (i.e., sea level rise). We proposed that the sudden widespread dieback of S. alterniflora following Hurricane Harvey was the result of extreme precipitation and flooding that exceeded this threshold for S. alterniflora survival. Indeed, S. alterniflora dieback occurred at elevations above the wetland collapse threshold, illustrating a heightened vulnerability to flooding that could not be predicted from baseline climate conditions. Moreover, the spatial pattern of vegetation dieback indicated that underlying stressors may have also increased susceptibility to dieback in some S. alterniflora marshes.Collectively, our results highlight a new mechanism of sudden vegetation dieback in S. alterniflora marshes that is triggered by extreme precipitation and flooding. Furthermore, this work emphasizes the importance of considering interactions between multiple abiotic and biotic stressors that can lead to shifts in tolerance thresholds and incorporating climate extremes into climate vulnerability assessments to accurately characterize future climate threats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Replacement of coral by macroalgae in post-disturbance reefs, also called a "coral-macroalgal regime shift", is increasing in response to climate-driven ocean warming. Such ecosystem change is known to impact planktonic and benthic reef microbial communities but few studies have examined the effect on animal microbiota. In order to understand the consequence of coral-macroalgal shifts on the coral reef fish enteric bacteriome, we used a metabarcoding approach to examine the gut bacteriomes of 99 individual fish representing 36 species collected on reefs of the Inner Seychelles islands that, following bleaching, had either recovered to coral domination, or shifted to macroalgae. While the coral-macroalgal shift did not influence the diversity, richness or variability of fish gut bacteriomes, we observed a significant effect on the composition (R2 = 0.02; p = 0.001), especially in herbivorous fishes (R2 = 0.07; p = 0.001). This change is accompanied by a significant increase in the proportion of fermentative bacteria (Rikenella, Akkermensia, Desulfovibrio, Brachyspira) and associated metabolisms (carbohydrates metabolism, DNA replication, and nitrogen metabolism) in relation to the strong turnover of Scarinae and Siganidae fishes. Predominance of fermentative metabolisms in fish found on macroalgal dominated reefs indicates that regime shifts not only affect the taxonomic composition of fish bacteriomes, but also have the potential to affect ecosystem functioning through microbial functions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research highlights: shifts in the composition and functional diversity of lichen biota reflect changes in the environment caused by climate warming and eutrophication. Background and objectives: studies on lichen functional diversity and refinement in the functional traits of lichen biota under the pressure of changing environmental factors are currently of great scientific interest. The obtained results are interpreted in relation to specific habitat properties and their modifications due to the potential effects of climate change and atmospheric pollution. The aim of the work was to investigate changes in lichen species composition and functional diversity, as well as to identify factors responsible for them at different forest ecosystem scales. Materials and Methods: we identified factors responsible for changes in lichen biota in a unique Białowieża Forest ecosystem by analyzing shifts in species optima and functional diversity at the forest community, tree phorophyte, and substrate levels. We examined individual lichen species' responses and temporal shifts in the species composition for each historical and resampled dataset using a community-weighted means of functional lichen traits and Wirth ecological indicator values. Results: the most evident change took place at the level of individual species, which shifted their realized optima: 25 species demonstrated a shift to co-occur with lichens of higher nitrogen demands, 15 demonstrated higher light demands, 14 demonstrated higher temperature preferences, and six demonstrated lower moisture preferences. At the level of forest communities, biota shifted towards the higher proportion of nitrogen-demanding and the lower proportion of moisture-demanding species. At the level of phorophyte species, biota changed towards an increased proportion of lichens of higher temperature preferences. For the substrate level, no directional shifts in lichen species composition were found. Conclusions: climate change has influenced lichen biota in Białowieża Forest, but the main driver of lichen species composition was found to be eutrophication. We suppose that other overlapping factors may contribute to biota shifts, e.g., the extinction and expansion of phorophyte tree species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study reviews the monsoonal Yangtze and the arid Nile deltas with the objective of understanding how the process–response between river-basin modifications and delta-estuary ecological degradation are interrelated under contrasting hydroclimate dynamics. Our analysis shows that the Yangtze River had a long-term stepwise reduction in sediment and silicate fluxes to estuary due to dam construction since the 1960s, especially after the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) closed in 2003. By contrast, the Nile had a drastic reduction of sediment, freshwater, and silicate fluxes immediately after the construction of the Aswan High Dam (AHD) in 1964. Seasonal rainfall in the mid-lower Yangtze basin (below TGD) complemented riverine materials to its estuary, but little was available to the Nile coast below the AHD in the hyper-arid climate setting. Nitrogen (N) and phosphate (P) fluxes in both river basins have increased because of the overuse of N- and P-fertilizer, land-use changes, urbanization, and industrialization. Nutrient ratios (N:P:Si) in both delta-estuaries was greatly altered, i.e., Yangtze case: 75:1:946 (1960s–1970s), 86:1:272 (1980s–1990s) and 102:1:75 (2000s–2010s); and Nile case: 6:1:32 (1960s–1970s), 8:1:9 (1980s–1990s), and 45:1:22 (2013), in the context of the optimum of Redfield ratio (N:P:Si = 16:1:16). This led to an ecological regime shift evidenced by a long-term change in phytoplankton communities in the Yangtze estuary, where silicious algae tended to lose dominance since the end of the 1990s, when more toxic dinoflagellates began to emerge. In the Nile estuary, such a regime shift was indicated by the post-dam dramatic reduction in zooplankton standing crop and fish landings until the early 2000s when biological recovery occurred due to nutrient inputs from anthropogenic sources. Although the Yangtze had higher human impacts than the Nile in terms of population, industrialization, and fertilizer application, N concentrations in the Nile estuarine waters surpassed the Yangtze in recent decades. However, eutrophication in the Yangtze estuary is much more intensive than in the Nile, leading to the likelihood of its estuarine water becoming more acidic than ever before. Therefore, ecological degradation in both delta-estuaries does not follow a linear trajectory, due not only to different climate dynamics but also to human forcings. The comparative insights of this study should be incorporated into future integrated coastal management of these two important systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current warming in the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) has multiple effects on the marine ecosystem, modifying the trophic web and the nutrient regime. In this study, the effect of decreased surface salinity on the marine microbial community as a consequence of freshening from nearby glaciers was investigated in Chile Bay, Greenwich Island, WAP. In the summer of 2016, samples were collected from glacier ice and transects along the bay for 16S rRNA gene sequencing, while in situ dilution experiments were conducted and analyzed using 16S rRNA gene sequencing and metatranscriptomic analysis. The results reveal that certain common seawater genera, such as Polaribacter, Pseudoalteromonas and HTCC2207, responded positively to decreased salinity in both the bay transect and experiments. The relative abundance of these bacteria slightly decreased, but their functional activity was maintained and increased the over time in the dilution experiments. However, while ice bacteria, such as Flavobacterium and Polaromonas, tolerated the increased salinity after mixing with seawater, their gene expression decreased considerably. We suggest that these bacterial taxa could be defined as sentinels of freshening events in the Antarctic coastal system. Furthermore, these results suggest that a significant portion of the microbial community is resilient and can adapt to disturbances, such as freshening due to the warming effect of climate change in Antarctica. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamical systems are known to exhibit sudden state transitions, with abrupt shifts from one stable state to another. Such transitions are widely observed, with examples ranging from abrupt extinctions of species in ecosystems to unexpected financial crises in the economy or sudden changes in medical conditions. Statistical methods known as early warning signals (EWSs) are used to predict these transitions. In most studies to date, EWSs have been tested on data generated using equation-based methods that represent a system's aggregate state and thus show limitations in considering the interactions of a system at the component level. Agent-based models offer an alternative without these limitations. This study compares the performance of EWSs when applied to data from an equation-based and from an agent-based version of the Ising model. The results provide a reason to consider agent-based modelling a promising complementary method for investigating the predictability of state changes with EWSs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the impact of natural and anthropogenic climate variability, upwelling systems are known to change their properties leading to associated regime shifts in marine ecosystems. These often impact commercial fisheries and societies dependent on them. In a region where in situ hydrographic and biological marine data are scarce, this study uses a combination of remote sensing and ocean modelling to show how a stable seasonal upwelling off the Kenyan coast shifted into the territorial waters of neighboring Tanzania under the influence of the unique 1997/98 El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole event. The formation of an anticyclonic gyre adjacent to the Kenyan/Tanzanian coast led to a reorganization of the surface currents and caused the southward migration of the Somali–Zanzibar confluence zone and is attributed to anomalous wind stress curl over the central Indian Ocean. This caused the lowest observed chlorophyll-a over the North Kenya banks (Kenya), while it reached its historical maximum off Dar Es Salaam (Tanzanian waters). We demonstrate that this situation is specific to the 1997/98 El Niño when compared with other the super El-Niño events of 1972,73, 1982–83 and 2015–16. Despite the lack of available fishery data in the region, the local ecosystem changes that the shift of this upwelling may have caused are discussed based on the literature. The likely negative impacts on local fish stocks in Kenya, affecting fishers' livelihoods and food security, and the temporary increase in pelagic fishery species' productivity in Tanzania are highlighted. Finally, we discuss how satellite observations may assist fisheries management bodies to anticipate low productivity periods, and mitigate their potentially negative economic impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The alpine treeline, as an ecological transition zone between montane coniferous forests and alpine meadows (two ecosystem states), is a research hotspot of global ecology and climate change. Quantitative identification of its elevation range can efficiently capture the results of the interaction between climate change and vegetation. Digital extraction and extensive analysis in such a critical elevation range crucially depend on the ability of monitoring ecosystem variables and the suitability of the experimental model, which are often restricted by the weak intersection of disciplines and the spatial-temporal continuity of the data. In this study, the existence of two states was confirmed by frequency analysis and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) as well as the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) indices. The elevation range of a transition for the two ecosystem states on the northern slope of the Bogda was identified by the potential analysis. The results showed that the elevation range of co-occurrence for the two ecosystem states was 2690–2744 m. At the elevation of 2714 m, the high land surface temperature (LST) state started to exhibit more attraction than the low LST state. This elevation value was considered as a demarcation where abrupt shifts between the two states occurred with the increase of elevation. The identification results were validated by a field survey and unmanned aerial vehicle data. Progress has been made in the transition identification for the ecosystem states along the elevation gradient in mountainous areas by combining the remotely-sensed index with a potential analysis. This study also provided a reference for obtaining the elevation of the alpine tree line quickly and accurately. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fundamental processes of policy shifts emphasize how policy problems emerge and how policy decisions are made to overcome previous shortcomings. In Bangladesh, flood management policies may also have been driven by policy failures and flood-disaster events. In this context, we examined how policy shifts occurred in the country from 1947 to 2019 in areas of water management and flood prevention, control, and risk mitigation. To understand the nature of these policy shifts, we examined the evolutionary processes of flood management policies, the associated drivers, and the roles of key actors. Our findings reveal that policy transitions were influenced primarily by the predominance of the structural intervention paradigm and by catastrophic flood events. Such transitions were nonlinear due to multiple interest groups who functioned as contributors to, as well as barriers against, flood prevention policies. Policy debates over environmental concerns helped bring about a shift from a primary focus on structural intervention to a mixed approach incorporating various nonstructural interventions. Furthermore, our results suggest that the shifts in flood management policies have resulted in some degree of reliance on a "people-centered" approach rather than solely an "engineering coalition", which emphasizes the pivotal role of community members in decision making and the implementation of flood policies and programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water scientists often find themselves interacting with decision-makers with varying levels of technical background. The sustainable management of water resources is complex by nature, and future conditions are highly uncertain, requiring modeling approaches capable of accommodating a variety of parameters and scenarios. Technical findings from these analyses need to be positioned and conducted within the governance institutions to ensure decision-makers utilize them. This paper examines the water resource challenges for a large basin in northern Patagonia, Argentina and utilizes the Robust Decision Support (RDS) framework to evaluate trade-offs and strategies in a participatory process that included researchers and decision-makers. Integrated water resources models using simulation modeling and decision space visualization show significant climate change impacts, which are augmented with irrigated agriculture expansion and increasing hydropower production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]