Search

Spring frost is an extreme temperature event that poses a significant threat to winter wheat production and consequently jeopardizes food security. In the context of climate change, the accelerated phenology of winter wheat due to global warming advances the frost-sensitive stage, thereby escalating the risk of spring frost damage. Present techniques for monitoring and assessing frost damage heavily rely on meteorological data, controlled field experiments and crop model simulations, which cannot accurately depict the actual disaster situation for winter wheat. In this study, we propose a novel method that utilizes remote sensing index and statistical data to ascertain the spatial distribution of spring frost damage to winter wheat and evaluate the extent of damage. This method was employed to monitor and assess the spring frost damage event that occurred in Shandong province from 3 to 7 April 2018. The result shows that beginning on 3 April, the daily minimum temperature in western Shandong Province dropped significantly (decreased by 17.93 °C), accompanied by precipitation. The daily minimum temperature reached the lowest on 7 April (−1.48 °C). The growth of winter wheat began to be inhibited on 3 April 2018, and this process persisted until 13 April. Subsequently, the impact of spring frost damage on winter wheat ceased and growth gradually resumed. The affected area of winter wheat spanned 545,000 mu with an accuracy rate of 89.72%. Severely afflicted areas are mainly located in the cities of Jining, Zaozhuang, Dezhou, Heze, Liaocheng, Jinan and Tai'an in western Shandong province, and the yield reduction rates were 5.27~12.02%. Our monitoring results were consistent with the distribution of county-level winter wheat yield in 2018 in Shandong province, the daily minimum temperature distribution during spring frost and severely afflicted areas reported by the news. This method proves effective in delineating the spatial distribution of agricultural disasters and monitoring the extent of disaster damage. Furthermore, it can provide reliable information of disaster area and geospatial location for the agricultural department, thereby aiding in disaster damage assessment and post-disaster replanting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Radial growth of trees is closely related to canopy activity. Revealing the relationship between radial growth and canopy activity is of great significance for forest protection under climate change. In this study, we built tree-ring chronologies for two tree species, spruce (Picea aspruceerata) and Chinese pine (Pinus tabuliformis), from the Helan Mountains in the arid region of northwest China. Correlation coefficients were then calculated to reveal the relationships among tree rings, two kinds of gross primary productivity (GPP) indices, and climate data. The results demonstrated that the radial growth of both spruce and Chinese pine was positively correlated with GPP from late February to early March, and moisture conditions may be the driving factor of tree growth. However, radial growth of Chinese pine was also correlated with GPP from the end of March to the end of August. This study aimed to further supplement the relationship between trunk radial growth and canopy dynamics in the arid zone of northwest China and to provide theoretical guidance for vegetation restoration and forest conservation in the arid zone of northwest China under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most slope collapse accidents are indicated by certain signs before their occurrence, and unnecessary losses can be avoided by predicting slope deformation. However, the early warning signs of slope deformation are often misjudged. It is necessary to establish a method to determine the appropriate early warning signs in sliding thresholds. Here, to better understand the impact of different scales on the early warning signs of sliding thresholds, we used the Fisher optimal segmentation method to establish the early warning signs of a sliding threshold model based on deformation speed and deformation acceleration at different spatial scales. Our results indicated that the accuracy of the early warning signs of sliding thresholds at the surface scale was the highest. Among them, the early warning thresholds of the blue, yellow, orange, and red level on a small scale were 369.31 mm, 428.96 mm, 448.41 mm, and 923.7 mm, respectively. The evaluation accuracy of disaster non-occurrence and occurrence was 93.25% and 92.41%, respectively. The early warning thresholds of the blue, yellow, orange, and red level on a large scale were 980.11 mm, 1038.16 mm, 2164.63 mm, and 9492.75 mm, respectively. The evaluation accuracy of disaster non-occurrence and occurrence was 97.22% and 97.44%, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to choose deformation at the surface scale with a large scale as the sliding threshold. Our results effectively solve the problem of misjudgment of the early warning signs of slope collapse, which is of great significance for ensuring the safe operation of water conservation projects and improving the slope deformation warning capability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Slope collapse is one of the most severe natural disaster threats, and accurately predicting slope deformation is important to avoid the occurrence of disaster. However, the single prediction model has some problems, such as poor stability, lower accuracy and data fluctuation. Obviously, it is necessary to establish a combination model to accurately predict slope deformation. Here, we used the GFW-Fisher optimal segmentation method to establish a multi-scale prediction combination model. Our results indicated that the determination coefficient of linear combination model, weighted geometric average model, and weighted harmonic average model was the highest at the surface spatial scale with a large scale, and their determination coefficients were 0.95, 0.95, and 0.96, respectively. Meanwhile, RMSE, MAE and Relative error were used as indicators to evaluate accuracy and the evaluation accuracy of the weighted harmonic average model was the most obvious, with an accuracy of 5.57%, 3.11% and 3.98%, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to choose the weighted harmonic average model at the surface scale with a large scale as the slope deformation prediction combination model. Meanwhile, our results effectively solve the problems of the prediction results caused by the single model and data fluctuation and provide a reference for the prediction of slope deformation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The focus of this paper is on the grassland productivity response to drought under the background of climate change. There is an established lag impact on the response of grassland ecosystems to drought events, which may have additional effects on subsequent drought events. Meanwhile, due to climate change interference, the influence of drought on grassland productivity over the past 50 years is not simply equal to the algebraic sum of all the historical drought events. In the Inner Mongolia grassland, precipitation deficit plays a leading role in causing drought. Therefore, taking into consideration the impacts of drought lag effect and climate change, in this paper, we focus on the net influence of drought on grassland productivity over the past 50 years on the basis of long-term precipitation deficit, we identify the interference effect from different climate factors (precipitation and temperature) by using different scenario simulation tests, and therefore, further clarify the net influence on the grassland productivity of Inner Mongolia over the past 50 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flood disasters are one of the most serious meteorological disasters in China. With the rapid development of information technology, individual monitoring tools could not meet the need for flood disaster monitoring. Therefore, a new integrated air-space-ground method, based on combined satellite remote sensing, unmanned aerial vehicle remote sensing and field measurement technology, has been proposed to monitor and assess flood disasters caused by a dam failure in Poyang County, Jiangxi Province. In this paper, based on an air-space-ground investigation system, the general flooded areas, severely affected areas, and more severely affected areas were 53.18 km2, 12.61 km2 and 6.98 km2, respectively. The size of the dam break gap was about 65 m and 34.7 m on 22 and 23 June. The assessment precision was better than 98%, and the root mean square error (RMSE) was 0.86 m. The method could meet the needs for flood disaster information at different spatiotemporal scales, such as macro scale, medium scale and local small scale. The integrated monitoring of flood disasters was carried out to provide the whole process and all-round information on flood evolution dynamics, the disaster development process for flood disaster monitoring and emergency assessment, and holographic information for emergency rescue and disaster reduction, as well as to meet the need for different temporal and spatial scales of information in the process of disaster emergencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) provides more scenarios and reliable climate change results for improving the accuracy of future hydrological parameter change analysis. This study uses five CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) to drive the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model, and then simulates the hydrological response of the upper and middle Huaihe River Basin (UMHRB) under future shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSPs). The results show that the five-GCM ensemble improves the simulation accuracy compared to a single model. The climate over the UMHRB likely becomes warmer. The general trend of future precipitation is projected to increase, and the increased rates are higher in spring and winter than in summer and autumn. Changes in annual evapotranspiration are basically consistent with precipitation, but seasonal evapotranspiration shows different changes (0–18%). The average annual runoff will increase in a wavelike manner, and the change patterns of runoff follow that of seasonal precipitation. Changes in soil moisture are not obvious, and the annual soil moisture increases slightly. In the intrayear process, soil moisture decreases slightly in autumn. The research results will enhance a more realistic understanding of the future hydrological response of the UMHRB and assist decision-makers in developing watershed flood risk-management measures and water and soil conservation plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban rainstorm waterlogging is one of the most important problems in urban development and a comprehensive embodiment of urban diseases. China is facing a severe risk of rainstorm waterlogging disasters, which is affecting sustainable development. Urban rainstorm waterlogging in China is caused by many factors, including natural factors and human factors, such as climate warming, unreasonable urban construction, inadequate upgrading of urban fortification standards, etc. Based on the analysis of the current strategies to deal with urban waterlogging around the world, including an increase in surface infiltration, and a reduction in runoff (and its various impacts), this paper holds that the connotation and goal of these measures are highly consistent with the construction of a sponge city in China. Based on the analysis of the problems, including construction of an urban rainwater recovery system, construction of urban rainwater storage facilities, and construction of data platforms faced by China's sponge city, this paper puts forward the guiding principles of promoting the construction of a sponge city. The guiding principles are to cooperate to deal with climate change and ecological civilization construction, to study the foreign experience, and to unite multiple subjects, integrate multiple elements, design multiple processes, form a joint force, and create an all-round response system to deal with urban rainstorm waterlogging. Then, this paper gives policy recommendations on how to deal with the urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters, which include improving the defense standards, encouraging social participation, popularizing the construction of sponge cities, perfecting the monitoring and early warning system, strengthening the scientific planning of cities, strengthening the ability of dealing with catastrophes in metropolitan areas, the overall planning of cross-regional responses, and enhancing the awareness of decision makers. Finally, this paper expounds the reference significance of urban rainstorm waterlogging control in China to the global audience. This paper explores the significance of comprehensively and scientifically understanding urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters, and provides support for long-term planning and high-quality construction of future safe cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme hydrologic events are getting more frequent under a changing climate, and a reliable hydrological modeling framework is important to understand their mechanism. However, existing hydrological modeling frameworks are mostly constrained to a relatively coarse resolution, unrealistic input information, and insufficient evaluations, especially for the large domain, and they are, therefore, unable to address and reconstruct many of the water-related issues (e.g., flooding and drought). In this study, a 0.0625-degree (~6 km) resolution variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model developed for China from 1970 to 2016 was extensively evaluated against remote sensing and ground-based observations. A unique feature in this modeling framework is the incorporation of new remotely sensed vegetation and soil parameter dataset. To our knowledge, this constitutes the first application of VIC with such a long-term and fine resolution over a large domain, and more importantly, with a holistic system-evaluation leveraging the best available earth data. The evaluations using in-situ observations of streamflow, evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture (SM) indicate a great improvement. The simulations are also consistent with satellite remote sensing products of ET and SM, because the mean differences between the VIC ET and the remote sensing ET range from −2 to 2 mm/day, and the differences for SM of the top thin layer range from −2 to 3 mm. Therefore, this continental-scale hydrological modeling framework is reliable and accurate, which can be used for various applications including extreme hydrological event detections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Neural networks, especially the latest deep learning, have exhibited good ability in estimating surface parameters from satellite remote sensing. However, thorough examinations of neural networks in the estimation of land surface temperature (LST) from satellite passive microwave (MW) observations are still lacking. Here, we examined the performances of the traditional neural network (NN), deep belief network (DBN), and convolutional neural network (CNN) in estimating LST from the AMSR-E and AMSR2 data over the Chinese landmass. The examinations were based on the same training set, validation set, and test set extracted from 2003, 2004, and 2009, respectively, for AMSR-E with a spatial resolution of 0.25°. For AMSR2, the three sets were extracted from 2013, 2014, and 2016 with a spatial resolution of 0.1°, respectively. MODIS LST played the role of "ground truth" in the training, validation, and testing. The examination results show that CNN is better than NN and DBN by 0.1–0.4 K. Different combinations of input parameters were examined to get the best combinations for the daytime and nighttime conditions. The best combinations are the brightness temperatures (BTs), NDVI, air temperature, and day of the year (DOY) for the daytime and BTs and air temperature for the nighttime. By adding three and one easily obtained parameters on the basis of BTs, the accuracies of LST estimates can be improved by 0.8 K and 0.3 K for the daytime and nighttime conditions, respectively. Compared with the MODIS LST, the CNN LST estimates yielded root-mean-square differences (RMSDs) of 2.19–3.58 K for the daytime and 1.43–2.14 K for the nighttime for diverse land cover types for AMSR-E. Validation against the in-situ LSTs showed that the CNN LSTs yielded root-mean-square errors of 2.10–4.72 K for forest and cropland sites. Further intercomparison indicated that ~50% of the CNN LSTs were closer to the MODIS LSTs than ESA's GlobTemperature AMSR-E LSTs, and the average RMSDs of the CNN LSTs were less than 3 K over dense vegetation compared to NASA's global land parameter data record air temperatures. This study helps better the understanding of the use of neural networks for estimating LST from satellite MW observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Total precipitable water (TPW) is an important key factor in the global water cycle and climate change. The knowledge of TPW characteristics at spatial and temporal scales could help us to better understand our changing environment. Currently, many algorithms are available to retrieve TPW from optical and microwave sensors. There are still no available TPW data over land from FY-3D MWRI, which was launched by China in 2017. However, the TPW product over land is a key element for the retrieval of many ecological environment parameters. In this paper, an improved algorithm was developed to retrieve TPW over land from the brightness temperature of FY-3D MWRI. The major improvement is that surface emissivity, which is a key parameter in the retrieval of TPW in all-weather conditions, was developed and based on an improved algorithm according to the characteristics of FY-3D MWRI. The improvement includes two aspects, one is selection of appropriate ancillary data in estimating surface emissivity parameter Δε18.7/Δε23.8 in clear sky conditions, and the other is an improvement of the Δε18.7/Δε23.8 estimation function in cloudy conditions according to the band configuration of FY-3D MWRI. Finally, TPW retrieved was validated using TPW observation from the SuomiNet GPS and global distributed Radiosonde Observations (RAOB) networks. According to the validation, TPW retrieved using observations from FY-3D MWRI and ancillary data from Aqua MODIS had the best quality. The root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient between the retrieved TPW and observed TPW from RAOB were 5.47 and 0.94 mm, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]