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Amphibians are the most threatened group of vertebrates. While habitat loss poses the greatest threat to amphibians, a spreading fungal disease caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is seriously affecting an increasing number of species. Although Bd is widely prevalent, there are identifiable heterogeneities in the pathogen’s distribution that are linked to environmental parameters. Our objective was to identify conditions that affect the geographic distribution of this pathogen using species distribution models (SDMs), with a special focus on Eastern Europe. SDMs can help identify hotspots for future outbreaks of Bd, but perhaps more importantly identify locations that may be environmental refuges ("coldspots") from infection. In general, climate is considered a major factor driving amphibian disease dynamics, but in particular temperature has received increased attention. Here, 42 environmental raster layers containing data on climate, soil and human impact were used. Mean annual temperature range (or 'continentality') was found to have the strongest constrain on the geographic distribution of this pathogen. Using the partial dependence visualization module in the R package 'embarcadero', a number of corresponding coldspots were identified.

Potential distribution of tropical fish species in Eastern Europe-Gambusia holbrooki Girarg, 1859 (introduced for biological control) and Poecilia reticulata Peters, 1859 (aquarium species, found in waste waters of big cities) tend to be of particular interest in terms of global climate change. After GIS modeling of our own data and findings listed in the GBIF databases (2278 points for G. holbrooki and 1410 points for P. reticulata) by using the Maxent package, 18 uncorrelated variables of 35 Bioclim climatic parameters from CliMond dataset, it was found out that by 2090 guppies will appear in the south of Ukraine (Danube river’s estuary, as well as in several places in the Caucasus and Turkey with habitat suitability >0.3–0.5). G. holbrooki will also slightly expand its range in Europe. Limiting factors for G. holbrooki distribution are are: bio1 (Annual mean temperature, optimum +12–+23 °C) and bio19 (Precipitation of coldest quarter (mm). Limiting factors for guppies are: bio1 (optimum +14–+28 °C), bio4 (Temperature seasonality), bio3 (Isothermality). Guppies, unlike G. holbrooki, prefer warmer waters (correlation 0.02). Such thermophilic fish species do not compete with the native ichthyofauna, but they can occupy niches in anthropogenicaly transformed habitats, playing an important role as agents of biological control.