Search

This study aimed to examine the spatio-temporal variations in the atmospheric boundary layer height (ABLH) over the Tarim Basin (TB). Monthly ABLH data from the ERA-Interim dataset from January 1979 to December 2018 were used. Periodicity analysis and the Mann–Kendall Abrupt Changes test were employed to identify the change cycle and abrupt change year of the boundary layer height. The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) method was utilized to determine the spatial distribution of the boundary layer height, and the RF method was used to establish the relationship between the ABLH and influencing factors. The results demonstrated that the highest values of ABLH (over 1900 m) were observed in the middle parts of the study area in June, and the ABLH exhibited a significant increase over the TB throughout the study period. Abrupt changes in the ABLH were also identified in 2004, as well as in 2-, 5-, 9-, and 15-year changing cycles. The first EOF ABLH mode indicated that the middle and northeast regions are relatively high ABLH areas within the study area. Additionally, the monthly variations in ABLH show a moderately positive correlation with air temperature, while exhibiting a negative correlation with air pressure and relative humidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The probabilistic prediction skill of the weekly forecasts of extreme cold events (ECE) is illustrated and measured in the form of the Brier Skill Score (BSS) and the area under Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves based on the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction project database. The ROC scores show that six S2S models have the good potential predictability skill required for use in ECE probabilistic forecasts, and they were more useful than climatologic probabilistic models in creating forecasts of about 3–4 weeks in length. However, the BSS results show that the actual prediction skill of six models used in ECE probabilistic forecasts are different. The ECMWF model has a good performance, and its actual probabilistic prediction skill of ECE for forecasts of about 3–4 weeks in length was higher than those of climatology, which operates close to its potential predictability. The actual probabilistic prediction skill of the NCEP model for ECE was only about 2 weeks over the extra-tropics, and no skill was recorded over the tropics given its bad reliability, especially over the tropics. BoM, JMA, and CNRM models only have a 1-week actual prediction skill over the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics, and they have no skill over the rest of the world's land area. The CNR-ISAC model has a 1-week actual prediction skill over the extra-tropics and about 4 weeks over the tropics. There is still much room for improvement in the prediction ability of models used for ECE. MJO in tropical regions has an important influence on the probabilistic prediction skill of ECE required at middle and high latitudes. When there is an MJO in the initial conditions, the potential predictability and actual prediction skill of ECE probabilistic forecasts over North America in the 3rd week and over Europe in the 3rd–4th weeks are higher than those without MJO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The BCC-CSM2 model is the second generation of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model developed by the National Center of China Meteorological Administration. Using the outputs of two versions of the BCC-CSM2 model with different resolutions, namely: BCC-CSM2-MR and BCC-CSM2-HR, their performance in simulating the climate characteristics of Northwest China was compared. The BCC-CSM2-HR had a better ability to simulate the detailed distribution of the average temperature and precipitation in Northwest China, and could delineate the influence of the topography in detail. The extreme events in Northwest China were evaluated further using the BCC-CSM2-HR and the observation data from China Meteorological Data Center. The BCC-CSM2-HR provided a good simulation of the spatial distribution of extreme climate events in Northwest China, and the spatial distribution of TXx, TNx, TXn, and TNn in Northwest China show closer proximity to the observation than that of TX90p, TN90p, TX10p, and TN10p, even in the case of extreme heavy precipitation. This case study of the extreme weather events showed that the BCC-CSM2-HR model had the best simulation performance for extreme high temperature events in Northwest China, followed by extreme low temperature events, and had the worst simulation ability for extreme precipitation events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate models participated in the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) are evaluated to reveal the impact of enhanced resolution in simulating the climatological distribution of precipitation over China. The multi-model mean (MME) of five models with 30–50 km horizontal resolution in the atmosphere (MME-50) had a better performance in reproducing the observed spatial patterns of precipitation over Northwest China and Southwest China than the MME of their lower-resolution (70–140 km) models (MME-100). Such an improvement is mainly attributed to the topographical rainfall reproduced by the higher-resolution models, which have the superiority of reproducing the local vertical circulation over the complex terrain. The MME-50 also improves the skill score of the 850-hPa southwesterly of the Indian-Burma trough relative to the MME-100, which may contribute to better simulation skill of precipitation over Southwest China. The MME-50 (0.92) has a close skill score to the MME-100 (0.91) in the simulation of East Asian summer monsoon, which explains why the MME-50 cannot improve the simulation skill of the precipitation over Southeast China and Northern China. The skill score of the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) simulated by the MME-50 is even lower than the MME-100, revealing that simulating the climate over the high plateau is still a challenge for the high-resolution models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic stratospheric final warming (SFW) is usually simulated with a substantial delay in climate models, and the corresponding temperatures in austral spring are lower than observations, implying insufficient stratospheric wave drag. To investigate the role of orographic gravity wave drag (GWD) in modeling the Antarctic SFW, in this study the orographic GWD parameterization scheme is modified in the middle-atmosphere version of the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model. A pair of simulations are conducted to compare two orographic GWD schemes in simulating the breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex over Antarctica. The control simulation with the default orographic GWD scheme exhibits delayed vortex breakdown and the cold-pole bias seen in most climate models. In the simulation with modified orographic GWD scheme, the simulated vortex breaks down earlier by 8 days, and the associated cold-pole bias is reduced by more than 2 K. The modified scheme provides stronger orographic GWD in the lower stratosphere, which drives an accelerated polar downwelling branch of the Brewer–Dobson circulation and, in turn, produces adiabatic warming. Our study suggests that modifying orographic GWD parameterizations in climate models would be a valid way of improving the SFW simulation over Antarctica. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]