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The interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) technique based on time–frequency (TF) analysis has great potential for mapping the forest canopy height model (CHM) at regional and global scales, as it benefits from the additional InSAR observations provided by the sublook decomposition. Meanwhile, due to the wider swath and higher spatial resolution of single-polarization data, InSAR has a higher observation efficiency in comparison with PolInSAR. However, the accuracy of the CHM inversion obtained by the TF-InSAR method is attenuated by its inaccurate coherent scattering modeling and uncertain parameter calculation. Hence, a new approach for CHM estimation based on single-baseline InSAR data and sublook decomposition is proposed in this study. With its derivation of the coherent scattering modeling based on the scattering matrix of sublook observations, a time–frequency based random volume over ground (TF-RVoG) model is proposed to describe the relationship between the sublook coherence and the forest biophysical parameters. Then, a modified three-stage method based on the TF-RVoG model is used for CHM retrieval. Finally, the two-dimensional (2-D) ambiguous error of pure volume coherence caused by residual ground scattering and temporal decorrelation is alleviated in the complex unit circle. The performance of the proposed method was tested with airborne L-band E-SAR data at the Krycklan test site in Northern Sweden. Results show that the modified three-stage method provides a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 5.61 m using InSAR and 14.3% improvement over the PolInSAR technique with respect to the classical three-stage inversion result. An inversion accuracy of RMSE = 2.54 m is obtained when the spatial heterogeneity of CHM is considered using the proposed method, demonstrating a noticeable improvement of 32.8% compared with results from the existing method which introduces the fixed temporal decorrelation factor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation of future climate models is critical for the assessments of future drought but contains large systematic biases over the Tibetan Plateau. Although the common precipitation bias correction method, quantile mapping has achieved remarkable results in terms of temporal bias correction, it does not consider the spatial distribution of bias. Furthermore, the extent to which precipitation bias affects drought estimation remains unclear. In our study, we take the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QHTP) as the case study and quantify the impact of corrected precipitation bias for seven Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models on drought assessment in historical and future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). To improve the accuracy of drought prediction, potential evapotranspiration (PET) was also corrected. Firstly, the histogram matching-quantile mapping (HQ) algorithm considering spatial correction is established to correct precipitation and PET. Then, we quantified the effects of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration correction on the change of drought intensity, and finally analyzed the spatiotemporal trends of precipitation, PET, and SPEI over the QHTP in the future. The results show that the HQ method can effectively improve the simulation ability of the model, especially the simulation accuracy of the ensemble model. After correction, the average annual total precipitation (TP) declined by 64.262% in 99.952% of QHTP, the average PET increased in 11.902% of the area and decreased in 88.098% of the area, while the intensity of the drought in 81.331% of the area increased by 2.875% and the 18.669% area decreased by 1.139%. Therefore, the uncorrected simulation data overestimated the future increase trend in precipitation and underestimated the future decrease trend in SPEI. The trend of HQ-corrected TP increased by 3.730 mm/10a, 7.190 mm/10a, and 12.790 mm/10a, and the trend of SPEI (TP and PET corrected) decreased by 0.143/100a, 0.397/100a, and 0.675/100a, respectively. Therefore, quantifying the changing relationship between precipitation bias correction and drought assessments is useful for understanding regional climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Temperature–Vegetation–Precipitation–Drought Index (TVPDI) has a good performance in drought monitoring in China. However, different regions have different responses to droughts due to terrain differences. In southeastern Tibet, the drought monitoring capacity of some drought indices without soil information has to be assessed on account of the poor sensitivity between temperature and soil humidity. Therefore, soil moisture was added to calculate a new drought index based on TVPDI in southeastern Tibet, named the Temperature–Vegetation–Soil-Moisture–Precipitation–Drought Index (TVMPDI). Then, the TVMPDI was validated by using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and other remote sensing drought indices, including the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) and Scale Drought Conditions Index (SDCI), during the growing seasons of 2003–2018. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and SPEI were used to represent meteorological drought and Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) was used to represent agricultural drought. The relation between TVMPDI and these drought indices was compared. Finally, the time trends of TVMPDI were also analyzed. The relation coefficients of TVMPDI and SPEI were above 0.5. The correlations between TVMPDI and drought indices, including the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) and Scale Drought Conditions Index (SDCI), also had a good performance. The correlation between the meteorological drought indices (SPI and SPEI) and TVMPDI were not as good as for the TVPDI, but the temporal correlation between the TVMPDI and GPP was greater than that between the TVPDI and GPP. This indicates that the TVMPDI is more suitable for monitoring agricultural drought than the TVPDI. In addition, historical drought monitoring had values that were consistent with those of the actual situation. The trend of the TVMPDI showed that drought in the study area was alleviated from 2003 to 2018. Furthermore, GPP was negatively correlated with SPEI (r = −0.4) and positively correlated with Soil Moisture (SM) drought index (TVMPDI, SMCI) (r = 0.4) in the eastern part of the study area, which suggests that SM, rather than precipitation, could promote the growth of vegetation in the region. A correct understanding of the role of soil information in drought comprehensive indices may monitor meteorological drought and agricultural drought more accurately. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of global climate change, floods have become one of the major natural disasters affecting the safety of human life, economic construction, and sustainable development. Despite significant improvements in flood risk and exposure modeling in some studies, there is still a lack of evidence on the spatiotemporal distribution patterns associated with flood risk across the globe. Meanwhile, numerous studies mostly explore flood risk distribution patterns based on specific spatial scales, ignoring to some extent the fact that flood risk has different distribution patterns on different scales. Here, on the basis of hazard–vulnerability components quantified using game theory (GT), we proposed a framework for analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of global flood risk and the influencing factors behind them on multiple scales. The results revealed that global flood risk increased during 2005–2020, with the percentages of high-risk areas being 4.3%, 4.48%, 4.6%, and 5.02%, respectively. There were 11 global risk hotspots, mainly located in areas with high population concentration, high economic density, abundant precipitation, and low elevation. On the national scale, high-risk countries were mainly concentrated in East Asia, South Asia, Central Europe, and Western Europe. In our experiment, developed countries accounted for the majority of the 20 highest risk countries in the world, with Singapore being the highest risk country and El Salvador having the highest positive risk growth rate (growing by 19.05% during 2015–2020). The findings of this study offer much-needed information and reference for academics researching flood risk under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil available nutrient contents are critical for regulating ecosystem structure and function; therefore, exploring patterns, dynamics, and drivers of soil available nutrient contents is helpful for understanding the geochemical cycle at the regional scale. However, learning the patterns and dynamics of soil available nutrients across a regional scale is quite limited, especially the soil available nitrogen (SAN) and soil available phosphorus (SAP) in alpine grasslands. In this study, we used machine learning (Random Forest) to map the SAN and SAP at a soil depth of 0–30 cm in alpine grasslands across the QingZang Plateau (QZP) in 2015. Our results showed that the current (2015) contents of the SAN and SAP in alpine grasslands on the QZP were 139.96 mg kg−1 and 2.63 mg kg−1, respectively. Compared to the 1980s, the SAN significantly increased by 18.12 mg kg−1 (14.83%, p < 0.05) and the SAP decreased by 1.71 mg kg−1 (39.40%, p < 0.05). The SAN and SAP contents of alpine meadows were higher than those of alpine steppes. The increases in SAN were not significantly (p > 0.05) different between those two grassland types, while the decrease in SAP was significantly (p < 0.05) higher in alpine meadows than in alpine grasslands. Combined with redundancy analysis, we quantified the impact of environmental drivers, and 80% of the spatial variation in SAN and SAP could be explained by environmental factors. Our findings also highlighted that in the context of global change, the increase in SAP and decrease in SAP might lead to weakening of nitrogen limitation and intensification of phosphorus limitation, especially in alpine meadows. In general, this study expanded the knowledge about the patterns and dynamics of SAN and SAP, and deepened the understanding of the driving mechanisms, which provided a basis for sustainable management of grasslands and optimization of ecological security barrier functions on the QZP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drastic climate change has led to glacier retreat in southeastern Tibet, and the increased frequency and magnitude of heavy rainfall and intense snow melting have intensified the risk of ice avalanche-induced debris flows in this region. To prevent and mitigate such hazards, it is important to derive the pre-disaster evolutionary characteristics of glacial debris flows and understand their triggering mechanisms. However, ice avalanche-induced debris flows mostly occur in remote alpine mountainous areas that are hard for humans to reach, which makes it extremely difficult to conduct continuous ground surveys and optical remote sensing monitoring. To this end, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images were used in this study to detect and analyze the pre-disaster deformation characteristics and spatial evolution in the Sedongpu Basin and to detect changes in the snowmelt in the basin in order to improve our understanding of the triggering mechanism of the ice avalanche-induced debris flows in this region. The results revealed that the maximum average deformation rate in the basin reached 57.3 mm/year during the monitoring period from January 2016 to October 2018. The deformation displacement in the gully where the ice avalanche source area was located was intimately correlated with the summer snowmelt and rainfall and was characterized by seasonal accumulation. Clear acceleration of the deformation was detected after both the most recent earthquake and the strong rainfall and snowmelt processes in the summer of 2018. This suggests that earthquakes, snowmelt, and rainfall were significant triggers of the Sedongpu ice avalanche-induced debris flows. The results of this study provide new insights into the genesis of the Sedongpu ice avalanche-induced debris flows, which could assist in disaster warning and prevention in alpine mountain regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poverty alleviation is one of the most important tasks facing human social development. It is necessary to make accurate monitoring and evaluations for areas with poverty to improve capability of implementing poverty alleviation policies. Here, this study introduced nighttime light (NTL) data to estimate county-level poverty in southwest China. First, this study used particle swarm optimization-back propagation hybrid algorithm to explore the potential relationship between two NTL data (the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's Operational Line Scan System data and the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite data). Then, we integrated two NTL data at the pixel level to establish a consistent time-series of NTL dataset from 2000 to 2019. Next, an actual comprehensive poverty index (ACPI) was employed as an indicator of multidimensional poverty at county level based on 11 socioeconomic and natural variables, and which could be the reference to explore the poverty evaluation using NTL data. Based on the correlation between the ACPI and NTL characteristic variables, a poverty evaluation model was developed to evaluate the poverty situation. The result showed the great matching relationship between DMSP-OLS and NPP-VIIRS data (R2 = 0.84). After calibration, the continuity and comparability of DMSP-OLS data were significantly improved. The integrated NTL data also reflected great consistency with socioeconomic development (r = 0.99). The RMSE between ACPI and the estimated comprehensive poverty index (ECPI) based on the integrated NTL data is approximately 0.19 (R2 = 0.96), which revealed the poverty evaluation model was feasible and reliable. According to the ECPI, we found that the magnitude of poverty eradication increased in southwest China until 2011, but slowed down from 2011 to 2019. Regarding the spatial scale, geographic barriers are a key factor for poverty, with high altitude and mountainous areas typically having a high incidence of poverty. Our approach offers an effective model for evaluation poverty based on the NTL data, which can contribute a more reliable and efficient monitoring of poverty dynamic and a better understanding of socioeconomic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flash floods are considered to be one of the most destructive natural hazards, and they are difficult to accurately model and predict. In this study, three hybrid models were proposed, evaluated, and used for flood susceptibility prediction in the Dadu River Basin. These three hybrid models integrate a bivariate statistical method of the fuzzy membership value (FMV) and three machine learning methods of support vector machine (SVM), classification and regression trees (CART), and convolutional neural network (CNN). Firstly, a geospatial database was prepared comprising nine flood conditioning factors, 485 flood locations, and 485 non-flood locations. Then, the database was used to train and test the three hybrid models. Subsequently, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, seed cell area index (SCAI), and classification accuracy were used to evaluate the performances of the models. The results reveal the following: (1) The ROC curve highlights the fact that the CNN-FMV hybrid model had the best fitting and prediction performance, and the area under the curve (AUC) values of the success rate and the prediction rate were 0.935 and 0.912, respectively. (2) Based on the results of the three model performance evaluation methods, all three hybrid models had better prediction capabilities than their respective single machine learning models. Compared with their single machine learning models, the AUC values of the SVM-FMV, CART-FMV, and CNN-FMV were 0.032, 0.005, and 0.055 higher; their SCAI values were 0.05, 0.03, and 0.02 lower; and their classification accuracies were 4.48%, 1.38%, and 5.86% higher, respectively. (3) Based on the results of the flood susceptibility indices, between 13.21% and 22.03% of the study area was characterized by high and very high flood susceptibilities. The three hybrid models proposed in this study, especially CNN-FMV, have a high potential for application in flood susceptibility assessment in specific areas in future studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change, population increase, and urban expansion have increased the risk of flooding. Therefore, accurately identifying future changing patterns in the flood risk is essential. For this purpose, this study elaborated a new framework for a basin scale that employs a future land-use simulation model, a factor spatialization technique, and a novel hybrid model for scenario-based flood risk assessment in 2030 and 2050. Three land-use scenarios (i.e., natural growth scenario, cropland protection scenario, and ecological protection scenario) were set and applied in Jinjiang Basin to explore the changes in future flood risk under these scenarios. The results indicate the different degrees of increase in flood risk that will occur in the three scenarios. Under the natural growth (NG) scenario, the city will expand rapidly with the growth of population and economy, and the total area with high and very high flood risk will increase by 371.30 km2 by 2050, as compared to 2020. However, under the ecological protection (EP) scenario, woodlands will be protected, and the growth in population, economy, and built-up lands will slow down with slightly increased risk of flooding. In this scenario, the total area with high and very high flood risk will increase by 113.75 km2 by 2050. Under the cropland protection (CP) scenario, the loss of croplands will have been effectively stopped, and the flood risk will not show a significant increase under this scenario, with an increase by only 90.96 km2 by 2050, similar to the EP scenario. Spatially, these increased flood risks mainly locate at the periphery of existing built-up lands, and the high-flood-risk zones are mainly distributed in the southeast of the Jinjiang Basin. The information about increasing flood risk determined by the framework provides insight into the spatio-temporal characteristics of future flood-prone areas, which facilitates reasonable flood mitigation measures to be developed at the most critical locations in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variations in surface physicochemical properties and spatial structures can prominently transform surface albedo which conversely influence surface energy balances and global climate, making it crucial to continuously monitor and quantify surface dynamics at fine scales. Here, we made two improvements to propose an algorithm for the simultaneous retrieval of 30-m Landsat albedo, based on the coupling of Landsat-8 and MODIS BRDF. First, two kinds of prior knowledge were added to disaggregate BRDF, including the Anisotropic Flat Index (AFX) and the Albedo-to-Nadir reflectance ratio (AN ratio), from MODIS scales into Landsat scales. Second, a simplified data fusion method was used to simulate albedo for the same, subsequent, or antecedent dates. Finally, we validated the reliability and correlations of the algorithm at six sites of the Surface Radiation (SURFRAD) budget network and intercompared the results with another algorithm called the 'concurrent approach'. The results showed that the proposed algorithm had favorable usability and robustness, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.015 (8%) and a mean bias of −0.005; while the concurrent approach had a RMSE of 0.026 (14%) and a mean bias of −0.018. The results emphasized that the proposed algorithm has captured subtle changes in albedo over a 16-day period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenology shifts over time are known as the canary in the mine when studying the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. Plant phenology is a key factor controlling the productivity of terrestrial vegetation under climate change. Over the past several decades, the vegetation in the three-river headwaters region (TRHR) has been reported to have changed greatly owing to the warming climate and human activities. However, uncertainties related to the potential mechanism and influence of climatic and soil factors on the plant phenology of the TRHR are poorly understood. In this study, we used harmonic analysis of time series and the relative and absolute change rate on Google Earth Engine to calculate the start (SOS), end (EOS), and length (LOS) of the growing season based on MOD09A1 datasets; the results were verified by the observational data from phenological stations. Then, the spatiotemporal patterns of plant phenology for different types of terrain and basins were explored. Finally, the potential mechanism involved in the influence of climatic and soil factors on the phenology of plants in the TRHR were explored based on the structural equation model and Pearson's correlation coefficients. The results show the remotely sensed monitoring data of SOS (R2 = 0.84, p < 0.01), EOS (R2 = 0.72, p < 0.01), and LOS (R2 = 0.86, p < 0.01) were very similar to the observational data from phenological stations. The SOS and LOS of plants possessed significant trends toward becoming advanced (Slope < 0) and extended (Slope > 0), respectively, from 2001 to 2018. The SOS was the earliest and the LOS was the longest in the Lancang River Basin, while the EOS was the latest in the Yangtze River Basin owing to the impact of climate change and soil factors. Meanwhile, the spatial patterns of SOS, EOS, and LOS have strong spatial heterogeneity at different elevations, slopes, and aspects. In addition, the results show that the drivers of plant phenology have basin-wide and stage differences. Specifically, the influence of soil factors on plant phenology in the Yangtze River Basin was greater than that of climatic factors, but climatic factors were key functional indicators of LOS in the Yellow and Lancang river basins, which directly or indirectly affect plant LOS through soil factors. This study will be helpful for understanding the relationship between the plant phenology of the alpine wetland ecosystem and climate change and improving the level of environmental management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flash floods are one of the most frequent natural disasters in Fujian Province, China, and they seriously threaten the safety of infrastructure, natural ecosystems, and human life. Thus, recognition of possible flash flood locations and exploitation of more precise flash flood susceptibility maps are crucial to appropriate flash flood management in Fujian. Based on this objective, in this study, we developed a new method of flash flood susceptibility assessment. First, we utilized double standards, including the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) and Geodetector to screen the assessment indicator. Second, in order to consider the weight of each classification of indicator and the weights of the indicators simultaneously, we used the ensemble model of the certainty factor (CF) and logistic regression (LR) to establish a frame for the flash flood susceptibility assessment. Ultimately, we used this ensemble model (CF-LR), the standalone CF model, and the standalone LR model to prepare flash flood susceptibility maps for Fujian Province and compared their prediction performance. The results revealed the following. (1) Land use, topographic relief, and 24 h precipitation (H24_100) within a 100-year return period were the three main factors causing flash floods in Fujian Province. (2) The area under the curve (AUC) results showed that the CF-LR model had the best precision in terms of both the success rate (0.860) and the prediction rate (0.882). (3) The assessment results of all three models showed that between 22.27% and 29.35% of the study area have high and very high susceptibility levels, and these areas are mainly located in the east, south, and southeast coastal areas, and the north and west low mountain areas. The results of this study provide a scientific basis and support for flash flood prevention in Fujian Province. The proposed susceptibility assessment framework may also be helpful for other natural disaster susceptibility analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The alpine timberline, an ecosystem ecotone, indicates climatic change and is tending to shift toward higher altitudes because of an increase in global warming. However, spatiotemporal variations of the alpine timberline are not consistent on a global scale. The abundant and highest alpine timberline, located on the Tibetan Plateau, is less subject to human activity and disturbance. Although many studies have investigated the alpine timberline on the Tibetan Plateau, large-scale monitoring of spatial-temporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of the alpine timberline remain uncertain and inaccurate. Hence, the Gongga Mountain on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau was chosen as the study area because of the most complete natural altitudinal zonation. We used the Otsu method on Google Earth Engine to extract the alpine timberline from 1987–2019 based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Then, the alpine timberline spatiotemporal patterns and the effect of topography on alpine timberline distribution were explored. Four hillsides on the western Gongga Mountain were selected to examine the hillside differences and drivers of the alpine timberline based on principal component analysis (PCA) and multiple linear regression (MLR). The results indicated that the elevation range of alpine timberline was 3203–4889 m, and the vegetation coverage increased significantly (p < 0.01) near the alpine timberline ecotone on Gongga Mountain. Moreover, there was spatial heterogeneity in dynamics of alpine timberline, and some regions showed no regular trend in variations. The spatial pattern of the alpine timberline was generally high in the west, low in the east, and primarily distributed on 15–55° slopes. Besides, the drivers of the alpine timberline have the hillside differences, and the sunny and shady slopes possessed different driving factors. Thus, our results highlight the effects of topography and climate on the alpine timberline on different hillsides. These findings could provide a better approach to study the dynamics and formation of alpine timberlines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatic extremes have adverse concurrent and lagged effects on terrestrial carbon cycles. Here, a concurrent effect refers to the occurrence of a latent impact during climate extremes, and a lagged effect appears sometime thereafter. Nevertheless, the uncertainties of these extreme drought effects on net carbon uptake and the recovery processes of vegetation in different Tibetan Plateau (TP) ecosystems are poorly understood. In this study, we calculated the Standardised Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) based on meteorological datasets with an improved spatial resolution, and we adopted the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford approach model to develop a net primary production (NPP) dataset based on multiple datasets across the TP during 1982–2015. On this basis, we quantised the net reduction in vegetation carbon uptake (NRVCU) on the TP, investigated the spatiotemporal variability of the NPP, NRVCU and SPEI, and analysed the NRVCUs that are caused by the concurrent and lagged effects of extreme drought and the recovery times in different ecosystems. According to our results, the Qaidam Basin and most forest regions possessed a significant trend towards drought during 1982–2015 (with Slope of SPEI < 0, P < 0.05), and the highest frequency of extreme drought events was principally distributed in the Qaidam Basin, with three to six events. The annual total net reduction in vegetation carbon uptake on the TP experienced a significant downward trend from 1982 to 2015 (−0.0018 ± 0.0002 PgC year−1, P < 0.001), which was negatively correlated with annual total precipitation and annual mean temperature (P < 0.05). In spatial scale, the NRVCU decrement was widely spread (approximately 55% of grids) with 17.86% of the area displaying significant declining trends (P < 0.05), and the sharpest declining trend (Slope ≤ −2) was mainly concentrated in southeastern TP. For the alpine steppe and alpine meadow ecosystems, the concurrent and lagged effects of extreme drought induced a significant difference in NRVCU (P < 0.05), while forests presented the opposite results. The recovery time comparisons from extreme drought suggest that forests require more time (27.62% of grids ≥ 6 years) to recover their net carbon uptakes compared to grasslands. Therefore, our results emphasise that extreme drought events have stronger lagged effects on forests than on grasslands on the TP. The improved resilience of forests in coping with extreme drought should also be considered in future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flash floods are one of the most destructive natural disasters. The comprehensive identification of the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors of a flash flood is the basis for the scientific understanding of the formation mechanism and the distribution characteristics of flash floods. In this study, we explored the spatiotemporal patterns of flash floods in Fujian Province from 1951 to 2015. Then, we analyzed the driving forces of flash floods in geomorphic regions with three different grades based on three methods, namely, geographical detector, principal component analysis, and multiple linear regression. Finally, the sensitivity of flash floods to the gross domestic product, village point density, annual maximum one-day precipitation (Rx1day), and annual total precipitation from days > 95th percentile (R95p) was analyzed. The analytical results indicated that (1) The counts of flash floods rose sharply from 1988, and the spatial distribution of flash floods mainly extended from the coastal low mountains, hills, and plain regions of Fujian (IIA2) to the low-middle mountains, hills, and valley regions in the Wuyi mountains (IIA4) from 1951 to 2015. (2) From IIA2 to IIA4, the impact of human activities on flash floods was gradually weakened, while the contribution of precipitation indicators gradually strengthened. (3) The sensitivity analysis results revealed that the hazard factors of flash floods in different periods and regions had significant differences in Fujian Province. Based on the above results, it is necessary to accurately forecast extreme precipitation and improve the economic development model of the IIA2 region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population is a crucial basis for the study of sociology, geography, environmental studies, and other disciplines; accurate estimates of population are of great significance for many countries. Many studies have developed population spatialization methods. However, little attention has been paid to the differential treatment of the spatial stationarity and non-stationarity of variables. Based on a semi-parametric, geographically weighted regression model (s-GWR), this paper attempts to construct a novel, precise population spatialization method considering parametric stationarity to enhance spatialization accuracy; the southwestern area of China is used as the study area for comparison and validation. In this study, the night-time light and land use data were integrated as weighting factors to establish the population model; based on the analysis of variables characteristics, the method uses an s-GWR model to deal with the spatial stationarity of variables and reduce regional errors. Finally, the spatial distribution of the population (SSDP) of the study area in 2010 was obtained. When assessed against the traditional regression models, the model that considers parametric stationarity is more accurate than the models without it. Furthermore, the comparison with three commonly-used population grids reveals that the SSDP has a percentage error close to zero at the county level, while at the township level, the mean relative error of SSDP is 33.63%, and that is >15% better than other population grids. Thus, this study suggests that the proposed method can produce a more accurate population distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pipelines are exposed to the severe threat of natural disasters, where the damage caused by landslides are particularly bad. Hence, in the route arrangement and maintenance management of pipeline projects, it is particularly important to evaluate the regional landslide hazards in advance. However, most models are based on the subjective determination of evaluation factors and index weights; this study establishes a quantitative hazard assessment model based on the location of historical landslides and the Levenberg–Marquardt Back Propagation (LM-BP) Neural Network model was applied to the pipeline area. We established an evaluation index system by analyzing the spatial patterns of single assessment factors and the mechanism of landslides. Then, different from previous studies, we built the standard sample matrix of the LM-BP neural network by using interpolation theory to avoid the serious influence of human factors on the hazard assessment. Finally, we used the standard sample matrix and the historical data to learn, train, test, and simulate future results. Our results showed 33 slopes with low hazard (accounting for 10.48% of the total number of slopes and corresponding to approximately 32.63 km2), 62 slopes with moderate hazard (accounting for 19.68% of the total number of slopes and corresponding to approximately 65.53 km2), 112 slopes with high hazard (accounting for 35.56% of the total number of slopes and corresponding to approximately 123.55 km2), and 108 slopes with extremely high hazard (accounting for 34.29% of the total number of slopes and corresponding to approximately 150.65 km2). Local spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated that there are significant "high–high" and "low–low" aggregation of landslide hazards in the pipeline area. By comparing the model results with the past landslides, new landslides and landslide potential points, its prediction capability and accuracy were confirmed. On the basis of the results, our study has developed effective risk prevention and mitigation strategies in mountain areas to promote pipeline safety. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional ecosystem health is the basis for regular regional exploration, ecological protection, and sustainable development. This study explored ecosystem health at the southern end of the Hu Line (Sichuan and Yunnan provinces) using the pressure–state–response model and examined the spatial evolution of ecosystem health. The proportion of unhealthy and morbid cities decreased from 45.9% in 2000 to 35.1% in 2016. The imbalance of ecosystem health among cities has gradually increased since 2006, but more high-quality cities have emerged (Z of Moran's Index < 1.96, p > 0.05). Overall, the regional ecosystem on the southeast side of the Hu Line was healthier than that on the northwest side. Differences in ecosystem health on both sides of the Hu Line showed decreasing trends over time except for the pressure score. The spatial pattern of ecosystem health moved along the Hu Line because the pressure and state scores of ecosystems were mainly determined by the natural environmental conditions. Based on the county-level assessment, the grade of imbalance within cities was divided, and those that were lagging were identified. To correct regional imbalances, a comprehensive and proactive policy framework for a smart development model was put forward in Sichuan and Yunnan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flash floods are one of the natural disasters that threaten the lives of many people all over the world every year. Flash floods are significantly affected by the intensification of extreme climate events and interactions with exposed and vulnerable socio-economic systems impede regional development processes. Hence, it is important to estimate the loss due to flash floods before the disaster occurs. However, there are no comprehensive vulnerability assessment results for flash floods in China. Fortunately, the National Mountain Flood Disaster Investigation Project provided a foundation to develop this proposed assessment. In this study, an index system was established from the exposure and disaster reduction capability categories, and is based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) methods. We evaluated flash flood vulnerability by adopting the support vector machine (SVM) model. Our results showed 439 counties with high and extremely high vulnerability (accounting for 10.5% of the land area and corresponding to approximately 100 million hectares (ha)), 571 counties with moderate vulnerability (accounting for 19.18% of the land area and corresponding to approximately 180 million ha), and 1128 counties with low and extremely low vulnerability (accounting for 39.43% of the land area and corresponding to approximately 370 million ha). The highly-vulnerable counties were mainly concentrated in the south and southeast regions of China, moderately-vulnerable counties were primarily concentrated in the central, northern, and southwestern regions of China, and low-vulnerability counties chiefly occurred in the northwest regions of China. Additionally, the results of the spatial autocorrelation suggested that the "High-High" values of spatial agglomeration areas mainly occurred in the Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangxi, Chongqing, and Beijing areas. On the basis of these results, our study can be used as a proposal for population and building distribution readjustments, and the management of flash floods in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau is one of the most vulnerable areas to extreme precipitation. In recent decades, water cycles have accelerated, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation have undergone dramatic changes across the Tibetan Plateau, especially in its various ecosystems. However, there are few studies that considered the variation of extreme precipitation in various ecosystems, and the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and few researchers have made a quantitative analysis between them. In this study, we analyzed the spatial and temporal pattern of 10 extreme precipitation indices across the Tibetan Plateau (including its four main ecosystems: Forest, alpine meadow, alpine steppe, and desert steppe) based on daily precipitation from 76 meteorological stations over the past 30 years. We used the linear least squares method and Pearson correlation coefficient to examine variation magnitudes of 10 extreme precipitation indices and correlation. Temporal pattern indicated that consecutive wet days (CWD) had a slightly decreasing trend (slope = −0.006), consecutive dry days (CDD), simple daily intensity (SDII), and extreme wet day precipitation (R99) displayed significant increasing trends, while the trends of other indices were not significant. For spatial patterns, the increasing trends of nine extreme precipitation indices (excluding CDD) occurred in the southwestern, middle and northern regions of the Tibetan Plateau; decreasing trends were distributed in the southeastern region, while the spatial pattern of CDD showed the opposite distribution. As to the four different ecosystems, the number of moderate precipitation days (R10mm), number of heavy precipitation days (R20mm), wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT), and very wet day precipitation (R95) in forest ecosystems showed decreasing trends, but CDD exhibited a significant increasing trend (slope = 0.625, P < 0.05). In the other three ecosystems, all extreme precipitation indices generally exhibited increasing trends, except for CWD in alpine meadow (slope = −0.001) and desert steppe (slope = −0.005). Furthermore, the crossover wavelet transform indicated that the ENSO had a 4-year resonance cycle with R95, SDII, R20mm, and CWD. These results provided additional evidence that ENSO play an important remote driver for extreme precipitation variation in the Tibetan Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flash floods are one of the most serious natural disasters, and have a significant impact on economic development. In this study, we employed the spatiotemporal analysis method to measure the spatial–temporal distribution of flash floods and examined the relationship between flash floods and driving factors in different subregions of landcover. Furthermore, we analyzed the response of flash floods on the economic development by sensitivity analysis. The results indicated that the number of flash floods occurring annually increased gradually from 1949 to 2015, and regions with a high quantity of flash floods were concentrated in Zhaotong, Qujing, Kunming, Yuxi, Chuxiong, Dali, and Baoshan. Specifically, precipitation and elevation had a more significant effect on flash floods in the settlement than in other subregions, with a high r (Pearson's correlation coefficient) value of 0.675, 0.674, 0.593, 0.519, and 0.395 for the 10 min precipitation in 20-year return period, elevation, 60 min precipitation in 20-year return period, 24 h precipitation in 20-year return period, and 6 h precipitation in 20-year return period, respectively. The sensitivity analysis showed that the Kunming had the highest sensitivity (S = 21.86) during 2000–2005. Based on the research results, we should focus on heavy precipitation events for flash flood prevention and forecasting in the short term; but human activities and ecosystem vulnerability should be controlled over the long term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]