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Rapid urbanization presents significant challenges to biodiversity through habitat degradation, fragmentation, and loss. This study focuses on Shenzhen, China, a highly urbanized region experiencing substantial land use changes and facing a considerable risk of biodiversity decline, to investigate the dynamics of habitat quality over two critical periods: 2010–2015 and 2015–2020. Using the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs) model for habitat quality assessment and Bayesian networks to analyze causal relationships, this research offers an innovative comparison between habitat recovery and degradation across these two phases. Results indicate that from 2010 to 2015, localized habitat recovery was achieved on 0.53% of the land area due to restoration policies, yet the overall trend remained negative. During the 2015–2020 period, habitat degradation intensified (7.19%) compared to recovery (5.7%); notably, 70.6% of areas that had been previously restored are now experiencing degradation once again. This re-degradation highlights the instability of earlier restoration efforts under ongoing urban pressure. By integrating spatial analysis with Bayesian network modeling, this study provides offers a nuanced understanding of where and why initial recovery efforts were unsuccessful, identifying areas susceptible to persistent degradation. The research emphasizes that urban expansion—particularly the development of construction land, was the primary driver of habitat degradation, while ecological sensitivity played a crucial role in determining the long-term success of recovery efforts. This approach provides valuable insights for designing more effective, sustainable conservation strategies in rapidly urbanizing regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: This study developed and evaluated Bayesian Network models for lung cancer risk prediction using a decade of data from 38,944 high-risk individuals in Denmark. The models were trained and validated on datasets with varying sizes and levels of missing data to reflect real-world screening scenarios. The results showed that a model trained on a small, complete dataset (AUC 0.78) performed similarly on a larger dataset with 21% missing data (AUC 0.78), but performance decreased when 39% of data were missing (AUC 0.67). The laboratory results and smoking data were the most informative variables, significantly outperforming models based only on age and smoking status (AUC 0.70). These findings suggest that BN models can maintain strong predictive performance despite incomplete data and highlight the value of including standard laboratory results in future LC screening programs. Background/Objectives: Lung cancer (LC) is the leading cause of cancer mortality, making early diagnosis essential. While LC screening trials are underway globally, optimal prediction models and inclusion criteria are still lacking. This study aimed to develop and evaluate Bayesian Network (BN) models for LC risk prediction using a decade of data from Denmark. The primary goal was to assess BN performance on datasets varying in size and completeness, simulate real-world screening scenarios, and identify the most valuable data sources for LC screening. Methods: The study included 38,944 patients evaluated for LC, with 11,284 (29%) diagnosed. Data on comorbidities, medications, and general practice were available for the entire cohort, while laboratory results, smoking habits, and other variables were only available for subsets. The cohort was divided into four subsets based on data availability, and BNs were trained and validated across these subsets using cross-validation and external validation. To determine the optimal combination of variables, all possible data combinations were evaluated on the samples that contained all the variables (n = 5587). Results: A model trained on the small, complete dataset (AUC 0.78) performed similarly on a larger dataset with 21% missing data (AUC 0.78). Performance dropped when 39% of data were missing (AUC 0.67), resulting in informative variables missing completely in the dataset. Laboratory results and smoking data were the most informative, significantly outperforming models based only on age and smoking status (AUC 0.70). Conclusions: BN models demonstrated moderate to strong predictive performance, even with incomplete data, highlighting the potential value of incorporating laboratory results in LC screening programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The failure probability of a pipeline is a quantification of the likelihood of an accident occurring in the pipeline, which is an indispensable part of the pipeline risk assessment process. To solve the problems of strong subjectivity, low feasibility, and low accuracy in the existing pipeline failure probability calculation methods, a three-layer Bayesian network topology model of "pipeline failure–failure cause–influencing factor" is proposed, with the pipeline failure as the subnode, the type of pipeline failure as the intermediate node, and the factors affecting the pipeline failure as the parent node of the network. Based on data fitting and fuzzy theory analysis methods, the functional relationship between the impact factor and the failure frequency of various pipelines is quantified. Using the mean value theorems for definite integrals and the analytic hierarchy process, the conditional probability of the directed edge in the network is calculated. The proposed function relationship provides a method to calculate the prior probability according to the parameters of the pipeline and its surroundings and a new idea to train the network model even without sufficient data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Serious crime modelling typically needs to be undertaken securely behind a firewall where police knowledge and capabilities remain undisclosed. Data informing an ongoing incident are often sparse; a large proportion of relevant data only come to light after the incident culminates or after police intervene—by which point it is too late to make use of the data to aid real-time decision-making for the incident in question. Much of the data that are available to the police to support real-time decision-making are highly confidential and cannot be shared with academics, and are therefore missing to them. In this paper, we describe the development of a formal protocol where a graphical model is used as a framework for securely translating a base model designed by an academic team to a fully embellished model for use by a police team. We then show, for the first time, how libraries of these models can be built and used for real-time decision support to circumvent the challenges of data missingness seen in such a secure environment through the ability to match ongoing plots to existing models within the library.The parallel development described by this protocol ensures that any sensitive information collected by police and missing to academics remains secured behind a firewall. The protocol nevertheless guides police so that they are able to combine the typically incomplete data streams that are open source with their more sensitive information in a formal and justifiable way. We illustrate the application of this protocol by describing how a new entry—a suspected vehicle attack—can be embedded into such a police library of criminal plots. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a widespread belief in the Bayesian network (BN) community that while the overall accuracy of the results of BN inference is not sensitive to the precision of parameters, it is sensitive to the structure. We report on the results of a study focusing on the parameters in a companion paper, while this paper focuses on the BN graphical structure. We present the results of several experiments in which we test the impact of errors in the BN structure on its accuracy in the context of medical diagnostic models. We study the deterioration in model accuracy under structural changes that systematically modify the original gold standard model, notably the node and edge removal and edge reversal. Our results confirm the popular belief that the BN structure is important, and we show that structural errors may lead to a serious deterioration in the diagnostic accuracy. At the same time, most BN models are forgiving to single errors. In light of these results and the results of the companion paper, we recommend that knowledge engineers focus their efforts on obtaining a correct model structure and worry less about the overall precision of parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a widely spread belief in the Bayesian network (BN) community that the overall accuracy of results of BN inference is not too sensitive to the precision of their parameters. We present the results of several experiments in which we put this belief to a test in the context of medical diagnostic models. We study the deterioration of accuracy under random symmetric noise but also biased noise that represents overconfidence and underconfidence of human experts.Our results demonstrate consistently, across all models studied, that while noise leads to deterioration of accuracy, small amounts of noise have minimal effect on the diagnostic accuracy of BN models. Overconfidence, common among human experts, appears to be safer than symmetric noise and much safer than underconfidence in terms of the resulting accuracy. Noise in medical laboratory results and disease nodes as well as in nodes forming the Markov blanket of the disease nodes has the largest effect on accuracy. In light of these results, knowledge engineers should moderately worry about the overall quality of the numerical parameters of BNs and direct their effort where it is most needed, as indicated by sensitivity analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The work presented here marks a further advance in expert uncertainty quantification. In a recent probabilistic evaluation of ice sheet process contributions to sea level rise, tail dependence was elicited and propagated through an uncertainty analysis for the first time. The elicited correlations and tail dependencies concerned pairings of three processes: Accumulation, Discharge and Run-off, which operate on major ice sheets in the West and East Antarctic and in Greenland. The elicitation enumerated dependencies between these processes under selected global temperature change scenarios over different future time horizons. These expert judgments allowed us to populate a Paired Copula Bayesian network model to obtain the estimated contributions of these ice sheets for future sea level rise. Including positive central tendency dependence and tail dependence increases the fatness of the upper tails of projected sea level rise distributions, an amplification important for designing and evaluating possible mitigation strategies. Detailing and jointly computing distributional dependencies and tail dependencies can be crucial components of good practice for assessing the influence of uncertainties on extreme values when modelling stochastic multifactorial processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public transit has been continuously developing because of advocacy for low-carbon living, and concerns about its safety have gained prominence. The various factors that constitute the bus operating environment are extremely complex. Although existing research on operational security is crucial, previous studies often fail to fully represent this complexity. In this study, a novel method was proposed to identify the risk factors for bus operations based on a Bayesian network. Our research was based on monitoring data from the public transit system. First, the Tabu Search algorithm was applied to identify the optimal structure of the Bayesian network with the Bayesian Information Criterion. Second, the network parameters were calculated using bus monitoring data based on Bayesian Parameter Estimation. Finally, reasoning was conducted through prediction and diagnosis in the network. Additionally, the most probable explanation of bus operation spatial risk was identified. The results indicated that factors such as speed, traffic volume, isolation measures, intersections, bus stops, and lanes had a significant effect on the spatial risk of bus operation. In conclusion, the study findings can help avert dangers and support decision-making for the operation and management of public transit in metropolitan areas to enhance daily public transit safety. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Learning Bayesian networks from data aims to create a Directed Acyclic Graph that encodes significant statistical relationships between variables and their joint probability distributions. However, when using real-world data with limited knowledge of the original dynamical system, it is challenging to determine if the learned DAG accurately reflects the underlying relationships, especially when the data come from multiple independent sources. This paper describes a methodology capable of assessing the credible interval for the existence and direction of each edge within Bayesian networks learned from data, without previous knowledge of the underlying dynamical system. It offers several advantages over classical methods, such as data fusion from multiple sources, identification of latent variables, and extraction of the most prominent edges with their respective credible interval. The method is evaluated using simulated datasets of various sizes and a real use case. Our approach was verified to achieve results comparable to the most recent studies in the field, while providing more information on the model's credibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Breast cancer remains a global health problem requiring effective diagnostic methods for early detection, in order to achieve the World Health Organization's ultimate goal of breast self-examination. A literature review indicates the urgency of improving diagnostic methods and identifies thermography as a promising, cost-effective, non-invasive, adjunctive, and complementary detection method. This research explores the potential of using machine learning techniques, specifically Bayesian networks combined with convolutional neural networks, to improve possible breast cancer diagnosis at early stages. Explainable artificial intelligence aims to clarify the reasoning behind any output of artificial neural network-based models. The proposed integration adds interpretability of the diagnosis, which is particularly significant for a medical diagnosis. We constructed two diagnostic expert models: Model A and Model B. In this research, Model A, combining thermal images after the explainable artificial intelligence process together with medical records, achieved an accuracy of 84.07%, while model B, which also includes a convolutional neural network prediction, achieved an accuracy of 90.93%. These results demonstrate the potential of explainable artificial intelligence to improve possible breast cancer diagnosis, with very high accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Behavioral neuropharmacology, a branch of neuroscience, uses behavioral analysis to demonstrate treatment effects on animal models, which is fundamental for pre-clinical evaluation. Typically, this determination is univariate, neglecting the relevant associations for understanding treatment effects in animals and humans. This study implements regression trees and Bayesian networks from a multivariate perspective by using variables obtained from behavioral tests to predict the time spent in the open arms of the elevated arm maze, a key variable to assess anxiety. Three doses of allopregnanolone were analyzed and compared to a vehicle group and a diazepam-positive control. Regression trees identified cut-off points between the anxiolytic and anxiogenic effects, with the anxiety index standing out as a robust predictor, combined with the percentage of open-arm entries and the number of entries. Bayesian networks facilitated the visualization and understanding of the interactions between multiple behavioral and biological variables, demonstrating that treatment with allopregnanolone (2 mg) emulates the effects of diazepam, validating the multivariate approach. The results highlight the relevance of integrating advanced methods, such as Bayesian networks, into preclinical research to enrich the interpretation of complex behavioral data in animal models, which can hardly be observed with univariate statistics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Featured Application: The proposed model can be used to improve symptoms checker tools for mental health disorders, allowing accurate and transparent predictions based on user input. Mental illnesses are becoming one of the most common health concerns among the population. Despite the proven efficacy of psychological treatments, mental illnesses are largely underdiagnosed, particularly in developing countries. A key factor contributing to this is the scarcity of mental health providers capable of diagnosing. In this work, we propose a novel method that combines the general capabilities and accuracy of Large Language models with the explainability of Bayesian Networks. Our system analyzes descriptions of symptoms provided by users and written in natural language and, based on these descriptions, asks questions to confirm or refine the initial diagnosis made by the deep learning model. We trained our model on a large-scale dataset collected from various internet sources, comprising over 2.3 million data points. The initial prediction from the Large Language model is refined through symptom confirmation questions derived from a probabilistic graphical model constructed by experts based on the DSM-5 diagnostic manual. We present results from symptom descriptions sourced from the internet and clinical vignettes extracted from behavioral science exams, demonstrating the effectiveness of our hybrid model in classifying mental health disorders. Our model achieves high accuracy in classifying a wide range of mental health disorders, providing transparent and explainable predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The subcellular localization of messenger RNA (mRNA) not only helps us to understand the localization regulation of gene expression but also helps to understand the relationship between RNA localization pattern and human disease mechanism, which has profound biological and medical significance. Several predictors have been proposed for predicting the subcellular localization of mRNA. However, there is still considerable room for improvement in their predictive performance, especially regarding multi-label prediction. This study proposes a novel multi-label predictor, DRpred, for mRNA subcellular localization prediction. This predictor first utilizes Bayesian networks to capture the dependencies among labels. Subsequently, it combines these dependencies with features extracted from mRNA sequences using Word2vec, forming the input for the predictor. Finally, it employs a neural network combining BiLSTM and an attention mechanism to capture the internal relationships of the input features for mRNA subcellular localization. The experimental validation on an independent test set demonstrated that DRpred obtained a competitive predictive performance in multi-label prediction and outperformed state-of-the-art predictors in predicting single subcellular localizations, obtaining accuracies of 82.14%, 93.02%, 80.37%, 94.00%, 90.58%, 84.53%, 82.01%, 79.71%, and 85.67% for the chromatin, cytoplasm, cytosol, exosome, membrane, nucleolus, nucleoplasm, nucleus, and ribosome, respectively. It is anticipated to offer profound insights for biological and medical research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In risk assessment, numerous subfactors influence the probabilities of the main factors. These main factors reflect adverse outcomes, which are essential in risk assessment. A Bayesian network can model the entire set of subfactors and their interconnections. To assess the probabilities of all possible states of the main factors (adverse consequences), complete information about the probabilities of all relevant subfactor states in the network nodes must be utilized. This is a typical task of probabilistic inference. The algorithm proposed by J. Pearl is widely used for point estimates of relevant probabilities. However, in many practical problems, including environmental risk assessment, it is not possible to assign crisp probabilities for relevant events due to the lack of sufficient statistical data. In such situations, expert assignment of probabilities is widely used. Uncertainty in expert assessments can be successfully modeled using triangular fuzzy numbers. That is why this article proposes a fuzzy version of this algorithm, which can solve the problem of probabilistic inference on a Bayesian network when the initial probability values are given as triangular fuzzy numbers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy policy has a significant impact on the state of the environment and, therefore, on residents' health and life expectancy, especially in highly urbanized areas. Reducing emissions is currently one of the necessary actions that must be taken at the scale of individual countries to ensure sustainable development. The article aims to identify the best ways to shape energy policy by evaluating development scenarios for air protection and their environmental impact. The realization of the goal is based on the data included in three groups: (1) Economic factors, Health factors, and Demographic factors; (2) Clima-e related economic losses, Renewable Energy sources in electricity, heating, and cooling, Premature deaths due to exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), Health impacts of air pollution, Population change; (3) Demographic balance and crude rates at the national level, GDP per capita in purchasing power PPS, GDP, and principal components; covering 36 EU countries in 2019 and 2021. The study proposes an advanced methodology for assessing development strategies by integrating the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and Bayesian networks (BN) and incorporating them into a multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) support system. The TOPSIS model based on BN allowed for the illustration of the features of many criteria and the identification of relationships between scenarios, allowing for selecting the best way to develop energy policy. The results showed a 60.39% chance of achieving success in extending the life of residents by five years. At the same time, the most favorable development path was the scenario promoting activities aimed at reducing air pollution by introducing renewable energy sources to produce energy used for lighting and preparing domestic hot water urban areas. By presenting possible scenarios and the probability of success, it is possible to achieve the goal of practical energy policy at the level of the country and individual European cities and also by extending the life of city inhabitants, as presented by the authors in this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SecuriDN v. 0.1 is a tool for the representation of the assets composing the IT and the OT subsystems of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) control networks and the possible cyberattacks that can threaten them. It is part of a platform that allows the evaluation of the security risks of DER control systems. SecuriDN is a multi-formalism tool, meaning that it manages several types of models: architecture graph, attack graphs and Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs). In particular, each asset in the architecture is characterized by an attack graph showing the combinations of attack techniques that may affect the asset. By merging the attack graphs according to the asset associations in the architecture, a DBN is generated. Then, the evidence-based and time-driven probabilistic analysis of the DBN permits the quantification of the system security level. Indeed, the DBN probabilistic graphical model can be analyzed through inference algorithms, suitable for forward and backward assessment of the system's belief state. In this paper, the features and the main goals of SecuriDN are described and illustrated through a simplified but realistic case study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A System-of-Systems (SoS) is characterized both by independence and by inter-dependency. This inter-dependency, while allowing an SoS to achieve its objectives, also means that failures can cascade throughout the SoS. An SoS needs to be resilient to deal with the impact of complex internal and external environments. In this paper, we propose a resilience analysis method of an SoS based on a hierarchy structure. Firstly, we establish a hierarchy structure, which is ranked from high to low as capability level, activity level and system level. Then, Bayesian Networks (BNs) and Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) are used to analyze the resilience of the SoS. A resilience-based system importance metric is introduced, which is used in the budget allocation optimization problem during the development domain of an SoS. This paper proposes a mathematical programming model aimed at optimizing SoS resilience by optimally using budget to the subsystem. The application of the proposed approach is demonstrated using a case study: a Next Generation Air Transportation setting. The study results provide evidence that the proposed inter-dependency analysis based on Bayesian theory and the SoS resilience design approach can assist SoS system engineers in increasing expected SoS resilience during the development domain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To analyze the influencing factors of the emergency linkage of gas explosion accidents and their causal relationships, a method for analyzing the influencing factors of the emergency linkage of gas explosion accidents is proposed based on a hierarchical holographic model and Bayesian networks. Firstly, based on the hierarchical holographic model to determine the main influencing factors of the accident emergency linkage, we constructed the topological structure model of accident control, secondary disaster, and emergency rescue, and used the triangular fuzzy number to assess the a priori probability and conditional probability of the influencing factors. Next, the most likely factors affecting the accident emergency linkage are quickly identified by combining Bayesian diagnostic reasoning. Finally, sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the key factors affecting the accident emergency linkage. The results show that the probability of normal operation of gas explosion accident emergency linkage is 78.1%, but when the coal mine environment changes, especially when multiple influencing factors occur simultaneously, the probability of normal operation of accident emergency linkage decreases significantly. Through causal analysis, the degree of influence on the operation of the accident emergency linkage in different situations can be deduced. Through diagnostic analysis, it can be seen that the emergency linkage operation is more sensitive to the two factors of the ventilation and smoke extraction system response and gas over limit, so it is necessary to pay attention to its important role in accident treatment. Meanwhile, the sensitivity analysis shows that the response of the ventilation and smoke extraction system, the accuracy of disaster sharing, the gas over limit, the technical level of the operators, and the team rescue experience are the key factors affecting the emergency response linkage in accidents. This study can provide theoretical guidance for the improvement of the emergency response linkage mechanism of coal mine gas explosion accidents as well as the decision-making of the accidents, minimize the losses of the accidents, and promote the sustainable development of the coal mining industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, mixed Bayesian networks have received increasing attention across various fields for probabilistic reasoning. Though many studies have been devoted to propagation computation on strong junction trees for mixed Bayesian networks, few have addressed the construction of appropriate strong junction trees. In this work, we establish a connection between the minimal strong triangulation for marked graphs and the minimal triangulation for star graphs. We further propose a minimal strong triangulation method for the moral graph of mixed Bayesian networks and develop a polynomial-time algorithm to derive a strong junction tree from this minimal strong triangulation. Moreover, we also focus on the propagation computation of all posteriors on this derived strong junction tree. We conducted multiple numerical experiments to evaluate the performance of our proposed method, demonstrating significant improvements in computational efficiency compared to existing approaches. Experimental results indicate that our minimal strong triangulation approach provides a robust framework for efficient probabilistic inference in mixed Bayesian networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing prevalence of species that are detrimental to biodiversity is a major concern, particularly for managers of national parks. To develop effective programmes for controlling weeds, it is essential to have a thorough understanding of the extent and severity of infestations, as well as the contributing factors such as temperature, rainfall, and disturbance. Predicting these factors on a regional scale requires models that can incorporate a wide range of variables in a quantifiable manner, while also assisting with on-ground operations. In this study, we present two Bayesian Network models specifically designed for six significant weed species found along the southern coast of Australia. Our models are based on empirical data collected during a coastal weed survey conducted in 2015 and repeated in 2016. We applied these models to the coastal national parks in the isolated and pristine East Gippsland region. Importantly, the prediction models were developed at two different spatial scales that directly corresponded to the scale of the observations. Our findings indicate that coastal habitats, with their vulnerable environments and prevalence of open dune systems, are particularly susceptible to weed infestations. Moreover, adjacent regions also have the potential for colonization if these infestations are not effectively controlled. Climate-related factors play a role in moderating the potential for colonization, which is a significant concern for weed control efforts in the context of global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, the authors focus on the introduction of a hybrid method for risk-based fault detection (FD) using dynamic principal component analysis (DPCA) and failure method and effect analysis (FMEA) based Bayesian networks (BNs). The FD problem has garnered great interest in industrial application, yet methods for integrating process risk into the detection procedure are still scarce. It is, however, critical to assess the risk each possible process fault holds to differentiate between non-safety-critical and safety-critical abnormalities and thus minimize alarm rates. The proposed method utilizes a BN established through FMEA analysis of the supervised process and the results of dynamical principal component analysis to estimate a modified risk priority number (RPN) of different process states. The RPN is used parallel to the FD procedure, incorporating the results of both to differentiate between process abnormalities and highlight critical issues. The method is showcased using an industrial benchmark problem as well as the model of a reactor utilized in the emerging liquid organic hydrogen carrier (LOHC) technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Business continuity entails the potential negative consequences of uncertainty on a firm's ability to achieve strategic objectives. The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted business continuity due to lockdowns, travel restrictions, and social distancing measures. Consequently, firms adopted specific supply chain (SC) practices to effectively navigate this global crisis. Methods: This research adopted a stochastic approach based on Bayesian Networks to evaluate the implications of business continuity on firms' decisions to embrace SC practices, focusing on omnichannel strategies, SC coordination, and technologies such as artificial intelligence systems, big data and machine learning, and mobile applications. Results: Our findings revealed that firms facing disruption in a single performance area can apply specific strategies to maintain resilience. However, multiple areas of underperformance necessitate a varied approach. Conclusions: According to our empirical analysis, omnichannel strategies are critical when disruptions simultaneously impact quality, inventory, sales, and ROI, particularly during major disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic. AI and big data become vital when multiple risks coalesce, enhancing areas such as customer service and supply chain visibility. Moreover, supply chain coordination and mobile app adoption are effective against individual performance risks, proving crucial in mitigating disruption impacts across various business aspects. These findings help policy-makers and business owners to have a better understanding of how business continuity based on performance resistance to disruptions pushes companies to adopt different practices including new technologies and supply chain coordination. Accordingly, they can use the outputs of this study to devise strategies for improving resilience considering their supply chain vulnerabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bayesian networks (BNs) are probabilistic graphical models that leverage Bayes' theorem to portray dependencies and cause-and-effect relationships between variables. These networks have gained prominence in the field of health sciences, particularly in diagnostic processes, by allowing the integration of medical knowledge into models and addressing uncertainty in a probabilistic manner. Objectives: This review aims to provide an exhaustive overview of the current state of Bayesian networks in disease diagnosis and prognosis. Additionally, it seeks to introduce readers to the fundamental methodology of BNs, emphasising their versatility and applicability across varied medical domains. Employing a meticulous search strategy with MeSH descriptors in diverse scientific databases, we identified 190 relevant references. These were subjected to a rigorous analysis, resulting in the retention of 60 papers for in-depth review. The robustness of our approach minimised the risk of selection bias. Results: The selected studies encompass a wide range of medical areas, providing insights into the statistical methodology, implementation feasibility, and predictive accuracy of BNs, as evidenced by an average area under the curve (AUC) exceeding 75%. The comprehensive analysis underscores the adaptability and efficacy of Bayesian networks in diverse clinical scenarios. The majority of the examined studies demonstrate the potential of BNs as reliable adjuncts to clinical decision-making. The findings of this review affirm the role of Bayesian networks as accessible and versatile artificial intelligence tools in healthcare. They offer a viable solution to address complex medical challenges, facilitating timely and informed decision-making under conditions of uncertainty. The extensive exploration of Bayesian networks presented in this review highlights their significance and growing impact in the realm of disease diagnosis and prognosis. It underscores the need for further research and development to optimise their capabilities and broaden their applicability in addressing diverse and intricate healthcare challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to address quality issues in the production of prefabricated steel structural components for buildings by investigating challenges in quality risk assessment. It identifies key factors contributing to quality problems and establishes an evaluation index system. Traditional methods encounter limitations in handling uncertainty and conducting quantitative analysis. Therefore, the fuzzy Bayesian network (FBN) theory is utilized to perform a probabilistic analysis of quality risks during the production phase. This research achieves a more accurate and dynamic risk assessment by integrating the strengths of fuzzy logic and Bayesian networks (BNs) and by utilizing expert knowledge, the similarity aggregation method (SAM), and the noisy-OR gate model. The study reveals that factors such as the "low professional level of designers", "poor production refinement", and "poor storage conditions for finished products" have a significant impact on quality risks. This study offers a scientific risk assessment tool designed to address the quality control challenges commonly experienced in the manufacturing of steel structural components. Identifying the critical risk factors that influence quality empowers actual production enterprises to develop risk management strategies and improvement measures in a more focused manner, thereby facilitating more effective resource allocation and risk prevention and control. Consequently, this approach has a significant impact on enhancing the overall production level and quality within the industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The construction of buildings invariably involves time and costs, and disruptions impact ongoing construction projects. Crisis situations in management strategies, structural confusion, and financial miscalculations often arise due to misguided decision-making. This article proposes a method that combines the learning of Bayesian Networks and heuristic techniques to optimize decision-making processes in construction scheduling. As an innovative approach in order to enhance construction management, the functioning of biological, molecular, and physical objects and nervous systems is considered, applying bionic features to mimic their efficiency and precision, thereby optimizing construction processes and improving coordination and decision-making. Bayesian Networks are used for probabilistic analysis, and heuristic methods guide quick decision-making. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of Bayesian Networks and heuristic methods in data analysis and decision-making in construction engineering. The developed algorithm can be successfully applied to both erecting and planning construction projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While preeclampsia is the leading cause of maternal death in Guayas province (Ecuador), its causes have not yet been studied in depth. The objective of this research is to build a Bayesian network classifier to diagnose cases of preeclampsia while facilitating the understanding of the causes that generate this disease. Data for the years 2017 through 2023 were gathered retrospectively from medical histories of patients treated at "IESS Los Ceibos" hospital in Guayaquil, Ecuador. Naïve Bayes (NB), The Chow–Liu Tree-Augmented Naïve Bayes ( TAN c l ), and Semi Naïve Bayes (FSSJ) algorithms have been considered for building explainable classification models. A proposed Non-Redundant Feature Selection approach (NoReFS) is proposed to perform the feature selection task. The model trained with the TAN c l and NoReFS was the best of them, with an accuracy close to 90%. According to the best model, patients whose age is above 35 years, have a severe vaginal infection, live in a rural area, use tobacco, have a family history of diabetes, and have had a personal history of hypertension are those with a high risk of developing preeclampsia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Constructing Bayesian networks (BN) for practical applications presents significant challenges, especially in domains with limited empirical data available. In such situations, field experts are often consulted to estimate the model's parameters, for instance, rank correlations in Gaussian copula-based Bayesian networks (GCBN). Because there is no consensus on a 'best' approach for eliciting these correlations, this paper proposes a framework that uses probabilities of concordance for assessing dependence, and the dependence calibration score to aggregate experts' judgments. To demonstrate the relevance of our approach, the latter is implemented to populate a GCBN intended to estimate the condition of air handling units' components—a key challenge in building asset management. While the elicitation of concordance probabilities was well received by the questionnaire respondents, the analysis of the results reveals notable disparities in the experts' ability to quantify uncertainty. Moreover, the application of the dependence calibration aggregation method was hindered by the absence of relevant seed variables, thus failing to evaluate the participants' field expertise. All in all, while the authors do not recommend to use the current model in practice, this study suggests that concordance probabilities should be further explored as an alternative approach for the elicitation of dependence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) approaches that could learn from large data sources have been identified as useful tools to support clinicians in their decisional process; AI and ML implementations have had a rapid acceleration during the recent COVID-19 pandemic. However, many ML classifiers are "black box" to the final user, since their underlying reasoning process is often obscure. Additionally, the performance of such models suffers from poor generalization ability in the presence of dataset shifts. Here, we present a comparison between an explainable-by-design ("white box") model (Bayesian Network (BN)) versus a black box model (Random Forest), both studied with the aim of supporting clinicians of Policlinico San Matteo University Hospital in Pavia (Italy) during the triage of COVID-19 patients. Our aim is to evaluate whether the BN predictive performances are comparable with those of a widely used but less explainable ML model such as Random Forest and to test the generalization ability of the ML models across different waves of the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Problems related to privacy and security preservation are in the scope of the concerns of governments and policymakers because of their impact on fundamental rights. Users are called to act responsibly whenever they are potentially exposed to related risks, but governments and parliaments must be proactive in creating safer conditions and a more appropriate regulation to both guide users towards good practices and create a favoring environment which reduces exposure. In this paper, we propose a modeling framework to define and evaluate policies which identify and use appropriate levers to accomplish these tasks. We present a proof-of-concept which shows the viability of estimating in advance the effects of policies and policymakers' initiatives by means of Influence Nets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The EU Green Deal requires the reduction in pesticides and fertilisers in food crop production, whilst the sustainable development goals require reductions in food loss and food waste. In a complex and interacting system like the food system, these goals are difficult to coordinate. Here, we show an approach using Bayesian network modelling for decision support. Bayesian networks are important tools for modelling complex systems which may develop emergent behaviour and for providing quantitative comparisons for different candidate policies, approaches or interventions under the Integrating Decision Support System paradigm. Using lettuce as an exemplar crop, we demonstrate that expected food loss changes under different agricultural input reduction and integrated pest management combinations can be quantified to aid decision making for growers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Appeals to governments for implementing basic income are contemporary. The theoretical backgrounds of the basic income notion only prescribe transferring equal amounts to individuals irrespective of their specific attributes. However, the most recent basic income initiatives all around the world are attached to certain rules with regard to the attributes of the households. This approach is facing significant challenges to appropriately recognize vulnerable groups. A possible alternative for setting rules with regard to the welfare attributes of the households is to employ artificial intelligence algorithms that can process unprecedented amounts of data. Can integrating machine learning change the future of basic income by predicting households vulnerable to future poverty? In this paper, we utilize multidimensional and longitudinal welfare data comprising one and a half million individuals' data and a Bayesian beliefs network approach to examine the feasibility of predicting households' vulnerability to future poverty based on the existing households' welfare attributes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the world transitions from the COVID-19 pandemic to a new normal, the Airports Council International (ACI) has disclosed that the Asia-Pacific region is lagging other regions in terms of air traffic recovery. This research comprehensively examines passenger satisfaction at leading airports in Southeast Asia. A multimethod approach incorporating multiple regression analysis, Bayesian networks, and neural network analysis was utilized to scrutinize user-generated content from Skytrax. The study contemplates eight distinct attributes of airport customer ratings: queuing time, cleanliness, seating areas, signage, food services, retail options, Wi-Fi availability, and staff courtesy. The findings reveal that queuing time and staff courtesy are the most important factors influencing the overall airport service rating. These results provide empirical evidence supporting the enhancement of airport services in the region and contribute significantly to the theoretical understanding and managerial implications for airport management and authorities. This research thus offers a valuable resource for improving service quality and operational efficiency in the airport industry, which could lead to a recovery and increase in the number of air passengers in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bayesian networks (BNs) are a foundational model in machine learning and causal inference. Their graphical structure can handle high-dimensional problems, divide them into a sparse collection of smaller ones, underlies Judea Pearl's causality, and determines their explainability and interpretability. Despite their popularity, there are almost no resources in the literature on how to compute Shannon's entropy and the Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence for BNs under their most common distributional assumptions. In this paper, we provide computationally efficient algorithms for both by leveraging BNs' graphical structure, and we illustrate them with a complete set of numerical examples. In the process, we show it is possible to reduce the computational complexity of KL from cubic to quadratic for Gaussian BNs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the field of education, cognitive diagnosis is crucial for achieving personalized learning. The widely adopted DINA (Deterministic Inputs, Noisy And gate) model uncovers students' mastery of essential skills necessary to answer questions correctly. However, existing DINA-based approaches overlook the dependency between knowledge points, and their model training process is computationally inefficient for large datasets. In this paper, we propose a new cognitive diagnosis model called BNMI-DINA, which stands for Bayesian Network-based Multiprocess Incremental DINA. Our proposed model aims to enhance personalized learning by providing accurate and detailed assessments of students' cognitive abilities. By incorporating a Bayesian network, BNMI-DINA establishes the dependency relationship between knowledge points, enabling more accurate evaluations of students' mastery levels. To enhance model convergence speed, key steps of our proposed algorithm are parallelized. We also provide theoretical proof of the convergence of BNMI-DINA. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach effectively enhances model accuracy and reduces computational time compared to state-of-the-art cognitive diagnosis models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although driverless technology belongs to the frontier of science and technology, there is no sufficient actual data. From the lack of a comprehensive systematic evaluation method of traffic safety under driverless penetration, considering the impact of the three core systems of driverless perception, decision-making, control, and the complex road factors on the safety of driving, we review the main risk causal factors through the analysis of the accident causal model STAMP and put forward the fusion of the Leaky Noisy-OR Gate and Bayesian network model. The Bayesian network professional analysis tool GeNIe 2.0 was used to simulate, analyze, and evaluate the driverless traffic risk Bayesian network model, which accurately assessed the traffic safety risk under driverless penetration and diagnosed and identified the sensitive risk factors. The results of this study concluded that, in order to effectively deal with the future traffic safety risks of driverless vehicles, vehicle enterprises, research institutions, software and hardware suppliers in the field of driverless driving should strengthen the research and development and manufacturing of key components such as perception, and enhance the depth of research and development of AI decision-making software, which provides a new way of thinking about the management of the safety risk of driverless traffic and a theoretical basis for the development and implementation of risk control measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The inherent complexities of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) technologies expose autonomous ships to a wide range of multifaceted interconnected risks. However, very few studies have aimed at the holistic risk assessment of autonomous ships. To this end, this study employs an expert-opinion-based integrated machine learning approach amalgamating logistic regression and Bayesian network to conduct risk assessment for autonomous ships. The results reveal human factor interactions and operational issues as the prominent accident causation factors. The findings of this study will contribute significantly to the existing literature on autonomous ships and the complexities involved in their operational systems. By identifying critical factors causing accidents and their impact on autonomous ship safety and resilience, stakeholders such as autonomous ship manufacturers, port authorities, shipping companies, and governments can develop more efficient and effective operational and safety systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an essential component of a universal CNC machine tool, the spindle plays a critical role in determining the accuracy of machining parts. The three cutting process parameters (cutting speed, feed speed, and cutting depth) are the most important optimization input parameters for studying process optimization. Better processing quality is often achieved through their optimization. Therefore, it is necessary to study the three cutting process parameters of the CNC machine tool spindle. In this paper, we proposed an improved algorithm incorporated with the beetle antennae search algorithm for the most probable explanation in Bayesian networks to achieve optimization calculation of process parameters. This work focuses on building adaptive dynamic step parameters to improve detection behavior. The chaotic strategy is discretized and used to establish the dominant initial population during the population initialization. This article uses four standard network data sets to compare the time and fitness values based on the improved algorithm. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm is superior in time and accuracy compared to similar algorithms. At the same time, an optimization example for the actual machining of a universal CNC machine tool spindle was provided. Through the optimization of this algorithm, the true machining quality was improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The social contribution that infrastructure components contribute to a territory tends to be underestimated. Indeed, few studies referring to asphalt pavements take social impact into account in their evaluation. This study proposes and evaluates a method to estimate the social contribution of innovative asphalt mixes used in a test section in Chile. For this, a multi-criteria structure, the Delphi method, was used to validate the evaluation structure, and the Bayesian theory and a Noise-OR model to evaluate the social contribution of asphalt mixes. Thus, for the life cycle of extraction, production, and construction, a set of indicators and social criteria determine a cause-effect decision-making model. Six types of asphalt mixes were evaluated: hot mix asphalt (HMA), warm mix asphalt (WMA) with natural zeolite from Chile, WMA with exported chemical additive, and their variants with and without recycled asphalt pavement (RAP). The results demonstrate that the WMAs with RAP achieve a more significant social contribution, emphasizing its contribution to the landscape, development and innovation, socioeconomic development, and health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pouring is an important process in the production of solid propellant rocket engines, and usually, the cost of a solid propellant rocket engine is extremely high. Therefore, pouring production with high reliability is very important. The pouring of three engines of solid propellant rocket engines simultaneously can greatly improve its production efficiency. However, it makes the system more complex and redundant. For a multi-state system, it is difficult to make an accurate evaluation of system reliability. Aiming at the redundancy of multiple engines and acousto-optic combined control in the three-engine simultaneously slurry pouring alarm control system with dissimilar redundant alarm units, a reliability analysis method is proposed based on the combination of Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The control system is divided into several redundant states according to the alarm function, and then the Bayesian Networks method is used for reliability evaluation and calculation. Finally, the reliabilities of systems with dissimilar redundancy degrees are obtained. The tangible results of this research work are as follows: (1) The research results obtained by applying the FMEA method laid a foundation for the establishment of a fault trees model for analyzing the reliability of the control system using the FTA method, in addition, which can guide the maintenance and fault identification of the control system during engineering application. (2) The calculated value of the reliability of the control system is 0.999989, and the mean time between failures is MTBF is 5 × 104 by using the fault tree analysis method, which proves that the designed three-engine simultaneous pouring system is very reliable. (3) Based on the calculation and comparison of the Bayesian Networks of redundant three-engine pouring control systems, the circuit diagram of the improved control system is identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the forthcoming era of fully autonomous mining, spanning from drilling operations to port logistics, novel approaches will be essential to pre-empt hazardous situations in the absence of human intervention. The progression towards complete autonomy in mining operations must have meticulous approaches and uncompromised security. By ensuring a secure transition, the mining industry can navigate the transformative shift towards autonomy while upholding the highest standards of safety and operational reliability. Experiments involving autonomous pathways for mining machinery that utilize AI for route optimization demonstrate a higher speed capacity than manually operated approaches; this translates to enhanced productivity, subsequently fostering increased production capacity to meet the rising demand for metals. Nonetheless, accelerated wear on crucial elements like tires, brakes, and bearings on mining machines has been observed. Autonomous mining processes will require smarter machines without humans that guide and support actions prior to a hazardous situation occurring. This paper will delve into a comprehensive perspective on the safety of autonomous mining machines by using Bayesian networks (BN) to detect possible hazard fires. The BN is tuned with a combination of empirical field data and laboratory data. Various faults have been recognized, and their correlation with the measurements has been established. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydropower plants (HPP) in the Amazon basin suffer from issues caused by trees and sediments carried by the river. The Jirau HPP, located in the occidental Amazon basin, is directly affected by high sediment transportation. These materials accumulate in the water intakes and obstruct the trash racks installed in the intake system to prevent the entry of materials. As a result, head losses negatively impact the efficiency of the generating units and the power production capacity. The HPP operation team must monitor these losses and take action timely to clear the intakes. One of the possible actions is to stop the GU to let the sediment settle down. Therefore, intelligent methods are required to predict the downtime for sediment settling and restoring operational functionality. Thus, this work proposes a technique that utilizes hidden Markov models and Bayesian networks to predict the fifty Jirau generation units' downtime, thereby reducing their inactive time and providing methodologies for establishing operating rules. The model is based on accurate operational data extracted from the hydropower plant, which ensures greater fidelity to the daily operational reality of the plant. The results demonstrate the model's effectiveness and indicate the extent of the impact on downtime under varying sediment levels and when neighboring units are generating or inactive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper demonstrates the process of invariance testing in diagnostic classification models in the presence of attribute hierarchies via an extension of the log-linear cognitive diagnosis model (LCDM). This extension allows researchers to test for measurement (item) invariance as well as attribute (structural) invariance simultaneously in a single analysis. The structural model of the LCDM was parameterized as a Bayesian network, which allows attribute hierarchies to be modeled and tested for attribute invariance via a series of latent regression models. We illustrate the steps for carrying out the invariance analyses through an in-depth case study with an empirical dataset and provide JAGS code for carrying out the analysis within the Bayesian framework. The analysis revealed that a subset of the items exhibit partial invariance, and evidence of full invariance was found at the structural level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multi-omics has the promise to provide a detailed molecular picture of biological systems. Although obtaining multi-omics data is relatively easy, methods that analyze such data have been lagging. In this paper, we present an algorithm that uses probabilistic graph representations and external knowledge to perform optimal structure learning and deduce a multifarious interaction network for multi-omics data from a bacterial community. Kefir grain, a microbial community that ferments milk and creates kefir, represents a self-renewing, stable, natural microbial community. Kefir has been shown to have a wide range of health benefits. We obtained a controlled bacterial community using the two most abundant and well-studied species in kefir grains: Lentilactobacillus kefiri and Lactobacillus kefiranofaciens. We applied growth temperatures of 30 °C and 37 °C and obtained transcriptomic, metabolomic, and proteomic data for the same 20 samples (10 samples per temperature). We obtained a multi-omics interaction network, which generated insights that would not have been possible with single-omics analysis. We identified interactions among transcripts, proteins, and metabolites, suggesting active toxin/antitoxin systems. We also observed multifarious interactions that involved the shikimate pathway. These observations helped explain bacterial adaptation to different stress conditions, co-aggregation, and increased activation of L. kefiranofaciens at 37 °C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gut microbiomes of fish species consist of thousands of bacterial taxa that interact among each other, their environment, and the host. These complex networks of interactions are regulated by a diverse range of factors, yet little is known about the hierarchy of these interactions. Here, we introduce SAMBA (Structure-Learning of Aquaculture Microbiomes using a Bayesian Approach), a computational tool that uses a unified Bayesian network approach to model the network structure of fish gut microbiomes and their interactions with biotic and abiotic variables associated with typical aquaculture systems. SAMBA accepts input data on microbial abundance from 16S rRNA amplicons as well as continuous and categorical information from distinct farming conditions. From this, SAMBA can create and train a network model scenario that can be used to (i) infer information of how specific farming conditions influence the diversity of the gut microbiome or pan-microbiome, and (ii) predict how the diversity and functional profile of that microbiome would change under other variable conditions. SAMBA also allows the user to visualize, manage, edit, and export the acyclic graph of the modelled network. Our study presents examples and test results of Bayesian network scenarios created by SAMBA using data from a microbial synthetic community, and the pan-microbiome of gilthead sea bream (Sparus aurata) in different feeding trials. It is worth noting that the usage of SAMBA is not limited to aquaculture systems as it can be used for modelling microbiome–host network relationships of any vertebrate organism, including humans, in any system and/or ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A Bayesian network-based modelling framework was proposed to predict the probability of exceeding critical thresholds for chlorophyll-a and turbidity in an Australian subtropical drinking water reservoir, based on Sentinel-2 data and prior knowledge. The model was trained with quasi-synchronous historical in situ and satellite data for 2018–2023 and achieved satisfactory accuracy (Brier score < 0.27 for all models) despite limited poor water quality events in the final dataset. The graphical output of the model (posterior probability maps of high turbidity or chlorophyll-a) provides an effective means for the user to evaluate both the prediction, and the uncertainty behind the predictions in a single map. This avoids loss of trust in the model and can trigger spatially targeted data collection in order to reduce uncertainty. Future work will focus on refining the modelling methodology and its automation, as well as including other data such as in situ high-frequency sensors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a novel algorithm for merging Bayesian networks generated by different methods, such as expert knowledge and data-driven approaches, while leveraging a symmetry-based approach. The algorithm combines the strengths of each input network to create a more comprehensive and accurate network. Evaluations on traffic accident data from Prague in the Czech Republic and accidents on railway crossings demonstrate superior predictive performance, as measured by prediction error metric. The algorithm identifies and incorporates symmetric nodes into the final network, ensuring consistent representations across different methods. The merged network, incorporating nodes selected from both the expert and algorithm networks, provides a more comprehensive and accurate representation of the relationships among variables in the dataset. Future research could focus on extending the algorithm to deal with cycles and improving the handling of conditional probability tables. Overall, the proposed algorithm demonstrates the effectiveness of combining different sources of knowledge in Bayesian network modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Software defect prediction is an important area in software engineering because it helps developers identify and fix problems before they become costly and hard-to-fix bugs. Early detection of software defects helps save time and money in the software development process and ensures the quality of the final product. This research aims to evaluate three algorithms to build Bayesian Networks to classify whether a project is prone to defects. The choice is based on the fact that the most used approach in the literature is Naive Bayes, but no works use Bayesian Networks. Thus, K2, Hill Climbing, and TAN are used to construct Bayesian Networks. On the other hand, three public PROMISE data sets are used based on McCabe and Halstead complexity metrics. The results are compared with the most used approaches in the literature, such as Decision Tree and Random Forest. The results from different performance metrics applied to a cross-validation process show that the classification results are comparable to Decision Tree and Random Forest, with the advantage that Bayesian algorithms show less variability, which helps engineering software to have greater robustness in their predictions since the selection of training and test data do not give variable results, unlike Decision Tree and Random Forest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainwater harvesting attracts growing interest from the field of municipal planning. When considering a rainwater harvesting system as a design object, questions include whether the system is designed for a single property or for a local water network serving multiple properties, what allows for the inclusion of buffer tanks and resource balancing among participants in the network, how to size the tanks, and how robust the system is in the face of changing demands. Knowledge-based engineering provides methods and a tool set for such planning objects. For this article, the authors applied techniques based on model-based and resource-based configuration and Bayesian decision networks to propose a knowledge-based engineering system for residential, networked rainwater harvesting and distribution systems. This enables designers to investigate the effects of different catchment areas, adjust or minimize the storage tank sizes in the grid and evaluate their effect on the individual harvest and the exchange with a central network buffer, evaluate the demands within a neighborhood based on a detailed consumer model also over time, and test the sensitivities of the single sinks and sources to the water grid. For urban planners, this offers the possibility, for example, to make design obligations for housing construction or for the refurbishment of settlements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To improve the viability of nuclear power plants, there is a need to reduce their operational costs. Operational costs account for a significant portion of a plant's yearly budget, due to their scheduled-based maintenance approach. In order to reduce these costs, proactive methods are required that estimate and forecast the state of a machine in real time to optimize maintenance schedules. In this research, we use Bayesian networks to develop a framework that can forecast the remaining useful life of a centrifugal pump. To do so, we integrate survival analysis with Bayesian statistics to forecast the health of the pump conditional to its current state. We complete our research by successfully using the Bayesian network on a case study. This solution provides an informed probabilistic viewpoint of the pumping system for the purpose of predictive maintenance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research proposes a new approach to improve information retrieval systems based on a multinomial naive Bayes classifier (MNBC), Bayesian networks (BNs), and a multi-terminology which includes MeSH thesaurus (Medical Subject Headings) and SNOMED CT (Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine of Clinical Terms). Our approach, which is entitled improving semantic information retrieval (IMSIR), extracts and disambiguates concepts and retrieves documents. Relevant concepts of ambiguous terms were selected using probability measures and biomedical terminologies. Concepts are also extracted using an MNBC. The UMLS (Unified Medical Language System) thesaurus was then used to filter and rank concepts. Finally, we exploited a Bayesian network to match documents and queries using a conceptual representation. Our main contribution in this paper is to combine a supervised method (MNBC) and an unsupervised method (BN) to extract concepts from documents and queries. We also propose filtering the extracted concepts in order to keep relevant ones. Experiments of IMSIR using the two corpora, the OHSUMED corpus and the Clinical Trial (CT) corpus, were interesting because their results outperformed those of the baseline: the P@50 improvement rate was +36.5% over the baseline when the CT corpus was used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]