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We analyzed hydrological responses to changing climate and land use/land cover (LULC) for the past (1985–2020) and future (2021–2080) in the Chemoga watershed of the Upper Blue Nile Basin. The watershed comprises four agroecological environments: Moist Kolla, Moist Weyna Dega, Moist Dega, and Wet Wurch. Past and projected LULC changes under business-as-usual (BAU) and land conservation (LC) scenarios were utilized. Climate projections from 2021 to 2080, under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), were downscaled from Global Climate Models. Utilizing the Soil and Water Analysis Tool, we assessed impacts on mean annual surface runoff (SR) and evapotranspiration (ET). Maximum and minimum temperatures increased significantly in the past and future climate scenarios, with a significant rainfall increase observed under SSP5-8.5. Historical trends revealed a 16.6% increase in SR and 7% in ET from 1983–2002 to 2003–2020. Under BAU LULC with the SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5) climate scenario, SR increased by 24% (26.1%) and ET by 3.1% (4.4%) from 2003–2020 to 2021–2050, followed by a subsequent SR rise of 13.7% (14.0%) and ET increase of 6.0% (5.7%) from 2021–2050 to 2051–2080. Conversely, the LC LULC with SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5) resulted in a 5.3% (4.2%) SR decrease and ET increase of 9.7% (11.3%) from 2003–2020 to 2021–2050 and a further SR decrease of 1% (0.7%) and 6.1% (6.9%) ET increase from 2021–2050 to 2051–2080. The Moist Kolla agroecology experienced the highest SR increase due to vegetation clearances for commercial farming. Meanwhile, the LC scenario indicated substantial decreases in SR and marginal increases in ET in the Moist Weyna Dega agroecology due to forest restoration on steep slopes. Overall, SR showed greater sensitivity to LULC changes, while ET was more responsive to climate changes. The results emphasize considering diverse agroecological contexts for effective water resource management under changing climate and LULC scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (TN) are key ecological indicators of soil quality in a given landscape. Their status, especially in drought-prone landscapes, is associated mainly with the land-use type and topographic position. This study aimed to clarify the effect of land use and topographic position on SOC and TN stocks to further clarify the ecological processes occurring in the landscape. To analyze the status of SOC and TN, we collected 352 composite soil samples from three depths in the uppermost soil (0–50 cm) in four major land-use types (bushland, cropland, grazing land, and plantation) and three topographic positions (upper, middle, and lower) at three sites: Dibatie (lowland), Aba Gerima (midland), and Guder (highland). Both SOC and TN stocks varied significantly across the land uses, topographic positions, and agro-ecosystems. SOC and TN stocks were significantly higher in bushland (166.22 Mg ha−1) and grazing lands (13.11 Mg ha−1) at Guder. The lowest SOC and TN stocks were observed in cropland (25.97 and 2.14 Mg ha−1) at Aba Gerima, which was mainly attributed to frequent and unmanaged plowing and extensive biomass removal. Compared to other land uses, plantations exhibited lower SOC and TN stocks due to poor undergrowth and overexploitation for charcoal and firewood production. Each of the three sites showed distinct characteristics in both stocks, as indicated by variations in the C/N ratios (11–13 at Guder, 10–21 at Aba Gerima, and 15–18 at Dibatie). Overall, land use was shown to be an important factor influencing the SOC and TN stocks, both within and across agro-ecosystems, whereas the effect of topographic position was more pronounced across agro-ecosystems than within them. Specifically, Aba Gerima had lower SOC and TN stocks due to prolonged cultivation and unsustainable human activities, thus revealing the need for immediate land management interventions, particularly targeting croplands. In a heterogeneous environment such as the Upper Blue Nile basin, proper understanding of the interactions between land use and topographic position and their effect on SOC and TN stock is needed to design proper soil management practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]