Search

Accurate probabilistic forecasts of renewable generation are drivers for operational and management excellence in modern power systems and for the sustainable integration of green energy. The combination of forecasts provided by different individual models may allow increasing the accuracy of predictions; however, in contrast to point forecast combination, for which the simple weighted averaging is often a plausible solution, combining probabilistic forecasts is a much more challenging task. This paper aims at developing a new ensemble method for photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting, which combines the outcomes of three underlying probabilistic models (quantile k-nearest neighbors, quantile regression forests, and quantile regression) through a weighted quantile combination. Due to the challenges in combining probabilistic forecasts, the paper presents different combination strategies; the competing strategies are based on unconstrained, constrained, and regularized optimization problems for estimating the weights. The competing strategies are compared to individual forecasts and to several benchmarks, using the data published during the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014. Numerical experiments were run in MATLAB and R environments; the results suggest that unconstrained and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO)-regularized strategies exhibit the best performances for the datasets under study, outperforming the best competitors by 2.5 to 9% of the Pinball Score.

A new short-term probabilistic forecasting method is proposed to predict the probability density function of the hourly active power generated by a photovoltaic system. Firstly, the probability density function of the hourly clearness index is forecasted making use of a Bayesian auto regressive time series model; the model takes into account the dependence of the solar radiation on some meteorological variables, such as the cloud cover and humidity. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation procedure is used to evaluate the predictive probability density function of the hourly active power by applying the photovoltaic system model to the random sampling of the clearness index distribution. A numerical application demonstrates the effectiveness and advantages of the proposed forecasting method.

This paper deals with the problem of optimal allocation (siting and sizing) of storage resources in unbalanced three-phase low voltage microgrids. The siting and sizing problem is formulated as a mixed, non-linear, constrained optimization problem whose objective function deals with economic issues and whose constraints involve technical limitations of both network and distributed resources. Emphasis is given to the power quality issue with particular attention to unbalance reduction and voltage profile improvement. Technological issues, such as those related to the preservation of batteries’ lifetime, were also taken into account. The planning problem is solved by means of a genetic algorithm which includes an inner algorithm based on sequential quadratic programming. In order to limit the processing time while maintaining reasonable accuracy, the genetic algorithm search space is significantly reduced identifying a subset of candidate buses for the siting of the storage resources. The Inherent Structure Theory of Networks and the Loading Constraints Criterion were used to identify the candidate buses. The proposed method has been applied to a low voltage test network demonstrating the effectiveness of the procedure in terms of computational burden while also preserving the accuracy of the solution.