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The high- and low-latitude radiative-dynamic (HLRD) climatic model of Wang et al. (1984) was used to study the effect of meridional heat (MH) fluxes on climate changes caused by increases of CO2 abundance and solar constant variations. However, the empirical MH parameterization of the HLRD model was replaced by physically based parameterization, which gives separate meridional sensible and latent heat fluxes and provides a complete representation of the dependence of the flux on the mean temperature field. Both parameterization methods yielded about the same changes in global mean surface temperature and ice line, and both produced only small changes in meridional temperature gradient, although the latter were even smaller with the physically based parameterizations. At any latitude, the hemispheric mean surface temperature, rather than MH fluxes, dominates the surface temperature changes.

A modified Eulerian form of the Eliassen-Palm flux which includes the effect of eddy forcing on condensation heating is defined. With the two-dimensional vector flux in the meridional plane which is a function of the zonal mean eddy fluxes replaced by the modified flux, both the Eliassen-Palm theorem and a modified but more general form of the nonacceleration theorem for quasi-geostrophic motion still hold. Calculations of the divergence of the modified flux and of the eddy forcing of the moisture field are presented.

Numerical models and numerical analyses of observations were used to improve the understanding of the physical processes important in global weather and climate. Results from a study of the effect of baroclinic waves on mid-latitude vertical temperature structure show that the waves' vertical eddy heat flux tend to eliminate the potential vorticity gradient near the steering level by causing the static stability to decrease rapidly with height in the lower troposphere above the boundary layer. An empirical study of the relationship between eddy heat fluxes and the meridional temperature gradient has been completed. The results indicate that the feedback in the flux-gradient system is comparable to dissipation on all time scales between the synoptic and the seasonal. The definition of the Eliassen-Palm flux and the Eliassen-Palm and non-acceleration theorems has been generalized to include eddy forcing of condensation. Calculations based on the generalized diagnostics showed that the annual mean eddy forcing of the zonal mean zonal wind is two and one half times stronger when the condensation effects are included.

The series of experiments presently used to investigate the mechanisms responsible for forcing the global Walker circulation features worldwide changes in ocean surface temperatures (OSTs), topography, and/or continents. The primary factor affecting circulation is noted to be the global distribution of continents and oceans; while OST gradients are also important, topography emerges as comparatively unimportant. Continentality and OST gradients force the model atmosphere through the introduction of zonal variations in surface heating. The vertical motions to which they give rise yield moisture convergence and condensation variations which reinforce vertical motions. The forcing by OST gradients is partly nonlocal, and the atmospheric response is effected by continentality. In all cases, vertical motion zonal variations correlate with precipitation.

A coupled high and low latitude radiative-dynamical model of the annual mean northern hemisphere has been constructed in order to study the interactions of the vertical and meridional heat fluxes and their feedback effect on model climate sensitivity. The model's climate sensitivity to solar constant changes and CO2 increases is investigated, and the effect of feedback in the dynamical fluxes on model climate sensitivity is examined. Nonlinear interactions between heat fluxes and other feedbacks such as radiation-temperature, ice albedo, and humidity are also discussed.

Voyager imaging, infrared, and radio observations for Saturn have been recently interpreted by Smith et al. (1982) as an indication that the jet streams observed at the cloud tops extend to depths greater than the 10,000-bar level. This analysis assumes a maximum latitudinal temperature contrast of a few percent, a mean atmospheric rotation rate at depth given by Saturn's ratio period, and no variation with latitude of the bottom pressure level for the zonal flow system. These assumptions are not, however, firmly constrained by observation. The diagnostic analysis of plausible alternative configurations for Saturn's atmospheric structure demonstrates that a thin weather layer system (confined at mid to high latitudes to levels above 200 bar) cannot be excluded by any of the available observations. A quantitative estimate of the effects of moisture condensation (including the differentiation of mean molecular weight) suggests that these might provide the buoyancy contrasts necessary to support a thin-layer flow provided that Saturn's outer envelope is enriched approximately 10 times in water abundance relative to a solar composition atmosphere and strongly differentiated with latitude at the condensation level.

A diagnostic study of the forcing of the Ferrel cell by eddy fluxes in the Northern Hemisphere is carried out. The quasi-geostrophic omega equation, and Oort and Rasmusson's (1971) data set, are used. The effects of condensation associated with the large scale motions are introduced to the omega equation by using the quasi-geostrophic moisture conservation equation. Thus, the dry static stability is replaced by a moist static stability, and the forcing of the Ferrel cell by eddy latent heat fluxes as well as sensible heat and momentum fluxes is included. Both effects tend to enhance the forcing of the Ferrel cell. The numerical analysis indicates that the effects are small in January, but in July the maximum vertical velocities are enhanced by about 30 percent.

National Meteorological Center data from midlatitudes for three Januaries is used in calculating time series of the zonal mean meridional eddy heat flux and the zonal mean baroclinic stability, as measured by the difference between the zonal wind shear and the critical value of the shear in two-level models. Time-lagged correlations between the two series reveal a highly significant negative correlation for short time lags, peaking at approximately -0.4 when the stability parameter lags one half day behind the eddy flux. They also reveal that strongly unstable conditions are not followed by significant increases in the eddy flux. These results are seen as indicating that the synoptic variations of the zonal mean eddy flux are not closely related to the degree of baroclinic instability of the zonal mean flow. The autocorrelation of the eddy flux is then compared with those expected for autoregressive processes. A Bayesian information criterion suggests that the behavior is represented best by a damped oscillation, with a damping time of 0.8 day and a period of five days.

The horizontal and vertical cloud structures, atmospheric waves, and wind velocities at the cloud top level were determined by the Pioneer Venus photopolarimeter images in the UV from January through March 1979. The images indicate long-term evolution of cloud characteristics, the atmospheric dynamics, and rapid small changes in cloud morphology. The clouds show a globally coordinated oscillation relative to latitude circles; retrograde zonal winds of 100 m/s near the equator are determined from the tracking of small-scale cloud properties, but two hemispheres show important variations. The zonal wind velocity in the southern hemisphere is reduced toward the poles at a rate similar to solid body rotation; the midlatitude jet stream noted by Mariner 10 is not observed.

A set of numerical experiments is carried out to test the short-range sensitivity of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies global atmospheric general-circulation model to changes in solar constant and ozone amount. These experiments consist of forecasts initiated with actual atmospheric data. One set of forecasts is made with a standard version of the model; another set uses the model modified by very different values of the solar constant (two-thirds and three-halves of the standard value) and of the ozone amount (zero and twice the standard amount). Twelve-day integrations with these very large variations show such small effects that the effects of realistic variations would almost certainly be insignificant meteorologically on this time scale.

Current knowledge of the atmosphere of Uranus is reviewed and specific objectives are suggested for satellite missions to Uranus. The anomalous composition of Uranus makes determinations of its atmospheric composition particularly valuable for testing theories of solar system evolution. The weakness of its atmospheric heating makes the determination of its atmospheric structure and dynamics particularly valuable for testing theories of atmospheric behavior. The large axial inclination of Uranus implies an anomalous latitudinal variation of temperature and dynamics different from that of the other planets.

Two integrations of a global general circulation model, differing only in the prescribed surface albedo in the Sahara, show that an increase in albedo resulting from a decrease in plant cover causes a decrease in rainfall. Thus any tendency for plant cover to decrease would be reinforced by a decrease in rainfall, and could initiate or perpetuate a drought.

A set of numerical experiments was conducted to test the short-range sensitivity of a large atmospheric general circulation model to changes in solar constant and ozone amount. On the basis of the results of 12-day sets of integrations with very large variations in these parameters, it is concluded that realistic variations would produce insignificant meteorological effects. Any causal relationships between solar variability and weather, for time scales of two weeks or less, rely upon changes in parameters other than solar constant or ozone amounts, or upon mechanisms not yet incorporated in the model.

Tests of the ability of numerical general circulation models to simulate the atmosphere have focussed so far on simulations of the January climatology. These models generally present boundary conditions such as sea surface temperature, but this does not prevent testing their ability to simulate seasonal changes in atmospheric processes that accompany presented seasonal changes in boundary conditions. Experiments to simulate changes in the zonally averaged heat balance are discussed since many simplified models of climatic processes are based solely on this balance.

Several experiments are described in which the sub-grid-scale vertical eddy viscosity in the GISS global general circulation model was varied. The results show that large viscosities suppress large-scale eddies in middle and high latitudes, but enhance the circulation in the tropical Hadley cell and increase the extent of the tropical easterlies. Comparison with observations shows that the GISS model requires eddy viscosities about 1 sq m per sec or less to give realistic results for middle and high latitudes, and eddy viscosities about 100 sq m per sec to give realistic results for low latitudes. A plausible mechanism for the implied increase in small-scale mixing in low latitudes is cumulus convection.

A simple model for the structure of a nonrotating Hadley regime in an atmosphere with large thermal inertia is developed. The radiative fluxes are estimated by using a linearization about the radiative equilibrium state, and the dynamical fluxes are estimated by using scaling analysis. The requirement that differential heating by these fluxes be in balance in both the meridional and vertical directions leads to two equations for the mean static stability and meridional temperature contrast. The solution depends on two parameters: the strength of the radiative heating, as measured by the static stability of the radiative equilibrium state; and the ratio of the time it takes an external gravity wave to traverse the atmosphere to the time it would take the atmosphere to cool off radiatively. It is shown that it is not necessary to invoke convection to explain the approximate adiabatic lapse rate in the Venus atmosphere, but a greenhouse effect is necessary to explain the high surface temperatures.

It is suggested that the apparent lag of Jupiter's mean rotation rate in extratropical latitudes (System II) behind the rotation rate of Jupiter's radio emissions (System III) is caused by the difference between phase speeds and true speeds in extratropical latitudes. An estimate of the difference based on the formula for the phase speed of Rossby waves agrees with the difference calculated from the two rotation rates.

In order to obtain accurate estimates of the radiative heating that drives motions in Jupiter's atmosphere, previous radiative equilibrium calculations are improved by including the NH3 opacities and updated results for the pressure-induced opacities. These additions increase the radiative lapse rate near the top of the statically unstable region and lead to a fairly constant radiative lapse rate below the tropopause. The radiative-convective equilibrium temperature structure consistent with these changes is calculated, but it differs only slightly from earlier calculations. The radiative equilibrium calculations are used to calculate whether equilibrium states can occur on Jupiter which are similar to the baroclinic instability regimes on the earth and Mars. The results show that Jupiter's dynamical regime cannot be of this kind, except possibly at very high latitudes, and that its regime must be a basically less stable one than this kind.

The meridional and vertical eddy fluxes of sensible heat produced by small-amplitude growing baroclinic waves are calculated using solutions to the two-level model with horizontal shear in the mean flow. The results show that the fluxes are primarily dependent on the local baroclinicity, i.e., the local value of the isentropic slopes in the mean state. Where the slope exceeds the critical value, the transports are poleward and upward; where the slope is less than the critical value, the transports are equatorward and downward. These results are used to improve an earlier parameterization of the tropospheric eddy fluxes of sensible heat based on Eady's model. Comparisons with observations show that the improved parameterization reproduces the observed magnitude and sign of the eddy fluxes and their vertical variations and seasonal changes, but the maximum in the poleward flux is too near the equator.

Set of numerical experiments has been carried out to test the short range sensitivity of a large atmospheric general circulation model to changes in solar constant and ozone amount. On the basis of the results of 12-day integrations with very large variations in these parameters, it is concluded that realistic variations would produce insignificant meteorological effects. Thus any causal relationships between solar variability and weather, for time scales of two weeks or less, will have to rely upon changes in parameters other than solar constant or ozone amounts, or upon mechanisms not yet incorporated in the model.

The feedback between the ice albedo and temperature is included in a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model. The effect of this feedback on global sensitivity to changes in solar constant is studied for the current climate conditions. This ice-albedo feedback amplifies global sensitivity by 26 and 39%, respectively, for assumptions of fixed cloud altitude and fixed cloud temperature. The global sensitivity is not affected significantly if the latitudinal variations of mean solar zenith angle and cloud cover are included in the global model. The differences in global sensitivity between one-dimensional radiative-convective models and energy balance models are examined. It is shown that the models are in close agreement when the same feedback mechanisms are included. The one-dimensional radiative-convective model with ice-albedo feedback included is used to compute the equilibrium ice line as a function of solar constant.

Ultraviolet images of Venus obtained over a 3-month period show marked evolution of the planetary-scale features in the cloud patterns. The dark horizontal 'Y' feature recurs quasi-periodically at intervals of about 4 days, but has also been absent for periods of several weeks. Bow-shaped features observed in Pioneer Venus images are farther upstream from the subsolar point than those in Mariner 10 images

Lapse rates, moist adiabatic lapse rates and the critical lapse rate for baroclinic adjustment are calculated and compared for the mean annual, January and July states in the Northern Hemisphere. The small seasonal changes in hemispheric mean lapse rates can be attributed to counteracting seasonal changes in the strength of moist convection and baroclinic eddies. A major conclusion is that the vertical temperature structure may be well approximated by a radiative-convective equilibrium model with two critical lapse rates, viz. the moist adiabatic lapse rate and the critical lapse rate for baroclinic adjustment.

Polarization measurements by the orbiter cloud photopolarimeter indicate the presence of a planet-wide layer of submicrometer aerosols of substantial visible optical thickness, of the order of 0.05 to 0.01, in the lower stratosphere well above the main visible sulfuric acid cloud layer. Cloud pattern characteristics found by Mariner 10 and by Pioneer are compared. Planetary scale markings, polar region clouds, and cellular features are considered.

The feedback between ice snow albedo and temperature is included in a one dimensional radiative convective climate model. The effect of this feedback on sensitivity to changes in solar constant is studied for the current values of the solar constant and cloud characteristics. The ice snow albedo feedback amplifies global climate sensitivity by 33% and 50%, respectively, for assumptions of constant cloud altitude and constant cloud temperature.

A detailed comparison is presented of the actual shear in the atmosphere with the critical shear given by the two-layer model of Phillips (1954), in which there is a critical temperature gradient separating stable conditions from baroclinically unstable ones. A very simple parameterization of the effect of eddy fluxes on atmospheric temperature is suggested, where the parameterization includes beta effects. The parameterization is illustrated by applying it in a one-dimensional heat-balance climate model. Enhancement of the eddy flux in a continuous atmosphere under supercritical conditions is stressed. This enhancement leads to a negative feedback between the meridional eddy flux of heat and the meridional temperature gradient. The feedback restricts gradients to values near the critical value, a process referred to as baroclinic adjustment. This should facilitate the development of simple climate models involving feedbacks associated with both the meridional vertical temperature structure.

Results are presented for a study directed to evaluate the ability of the global general circulation model of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in simulating seasonal differences as related to an experiment simulating the July climatology which parallels the January simulation presented by Somerville et al. (1974). The July and January simulations are compared with each other and with climatological data on seasonal changes, mainly for the Northern Hemisphere troposphere. The comparison shows that the model-generated energy cycle, distribution of winds, temperature, humidity and pressure, dynamical transports, diabatic heating, evaporation, precipitation and cloud cover are all realistic for the Northern Hemisphere troposphere in July. The model's simulation of seasonal differences is generally quite realistic since the systematic quantitative errors do not affect the simulation of relative changes, to first order. Defects that could seriously bias the model's performance in particular climate experiments are identified and discussed.

A baroclinic stability analysis is performed for a simple family of zonal shear profiles over a sphere, using a two-layer, quasi-geostrophic model. The stability properties and the structure of the most unstable waves are qualitatively similar to those on a beta-plane. However, the spherical geometry plays a major role in locating some of the important features of the most unstable waves. In particular, the locations of the maximum wave amplitude, maximum eddy heat fluxes, and maximum convergence of the eddy angular momentum flux are all well correlated with the location of the maximum excess of the vertical shear over the minimum value necessary for local instability on a sphere. Consequently the eddy momentum flux tends to generate a mid-latitude jet even if there is no preexisting mid-latitude jet in the basic state zonal flow. These findings suggest some of the elements needed for parameterizing the meridional variations of baroclinic eddy fluxes accurately.

Nongeostrophic baroclinic stability theory predictions test experiment with vertical heating provision, describing fluid motions

A description and numerical results are presented for a global atmospheric circulation model developed at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). The model version described is a 9-level primitive-equation model in sigma coordinates. It includes a realistic distribution of continents, oceans and topography. Detailed calculations of energy transfer by solar and terrestrial radiation make use of cloud and water vapor fields calculated by the model. The model hydrologic cycle includes two precipitation mechanisms: large-scale supersaturation and a parameterization of subgrid-scale cumulus convection. Results are presented both from a comparison of the 13th to the 43rd days (January) of one integration with climatological statistics, and from five short-range forecasting experiments. In the extended integration, the near-equilibrium January-mean model atmosphere exhibits an energy cycle in good agreement with observational estimates, together with generally realistic zonal mean fields of winds, temperature, humidity, transports, diabatic heating, evaporation, precipitation, and cloud cover.

A parameterization for the fluxes of sensible heat by large-scale eddies developed in an earlier paper is incorporated into a model for the mean temperature structure of an atmosphere including only these fluxes and the radiative fluxes. The climatic changes in this simple model are then studied in order to assess the strength of the dynamical feedback and to gain insight into how dynamical parameters may change in more sophisticated climatic models. The model shows the following qualitative changes: (1) an increase in the solar constant leads to increased static stability, decreased dynamic stability, and stronger horizontal and vertical winds; (2) an increase in the amount of atmospheric absorption leads to decreased static and dynamic stability, and stronger horizontal and vertical winds; and (3) an increase in rotation rate leads to greater static and dynamic stability, weaker horizontal winds, and stronger vertical winds.