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In the Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials (HVTN 704/HPTN 085 and HVTN 703/HPTN 081), prevention efficacy (PE) of the monoclonal broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) VRC01 (vs. placebo) against HIV-1 acquisition diagnosis varied according to the HIV-1 Envelope (Env) neutralization sensitivity to VRC01, as measured by 80% inhibitory concentration (IC80). Here, we performed a genotypic sieve analysis, a complementary approach to gaining insight into correlates of protection that assesses how PE varies with HIV-1 sequence features. We analyzed HIV-1 Env amino acid (AA) sequences from the earliest available HIV-1 RNA-positive plasma samples from AMP participants diagnosed with HIV-1 and identified Env sequence features that associated with PE. The strongest Env AA sequence correlate in both trials was VRC01 epitope distance that quantifies the divergence of the VRC01 epitope in an acquired HIV-1 isolate from the VRC01 epitope of reference HIV-1 strains that were most sensitive to VRC01-mediated neutralization. In HVTN 704/HPTN 085, the Env sequence-based predicted probability that VRC01 IC80 against the acquired isolate exceeded 1 µg/mL also significantly associated with PE. In HVTN 703/HPTN 081, a physicochemical-weighted Hamming distance across 50 VRC01 binding-associated Env AA positions of the acquired isolate from the most VRC01-sensitive HIV-1 strain significantly associated with PE. These results suggest that incorporating mutation scoring by BLOSUM62 and weighting by the strength of interactions at AA positions in the epitope:VRC01 interface can optimize performance of an Env sequence-based biomarker of VRC01 prevention efficacy. Future work could determine whether these results extend to other bnAbs and bnAb combinations., Competing Interests: Competing interests statement:The authors declare no competing interest.

The predominant mode of HIV-1 infection is heterosexual transmission, where a genetic bottleneck is imposed on the virus quasispecies. To probe whether limited genetic diversity in the genital tract (GT) of the transmitting partner drives this bottleneck, viral envelope sequences from the blood and genital fluids of eight transmission pairs from Rwanda and Zambia were analyzed. The chronically infected transmitting partner's virus population was heterogeneous with distinct genital subpopulations, and the virus populations within the GT of two of four women sampled longitudinally exhibited evidence of stability over time intervals on the order of weeks to months. Surprisingly, the transmitted founder variant was not derived from the predominant GT subpopulations. Rather, in each case, the transmitting variant was phylogenetically distinct from the sampled locally replicating population. Although the exact distribution of the virus population present in the GT at the time of transmission cannot be unambiguously defined in these human studies, it is unlikely, based on these data, that the transmission bottleneck is driven in every case by limited viral diversity in the donor GT or that HIV transmission is solely a stochastic event.

The precise identification of the HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein (Env) responsible for productive clinical infection could be instrumental in elucidating the molecular basis of HIV-1 transmission and in designing effective vaccines. Here, we developed a mathematical model of random viral evolution and, together with phylogenetic tree construction, used it to analyze 3,449 complete env sequences derived by single genome amplification from 102 subjects with acute HIV-1 (clade B) infection. Viral env genes evolving from individual transmitted or founder viruses generally exhibited a Poisson distribution of mutations and star-like phylogeny, which coalesced to an inferred consensus sequence at or near the estimated time of virus transmission. Overall, 78 of 102 subjects had evidence of productive clinical infection by a single virus, and 24 others had evidence of productive clinical infection by a minimum of two to five viruses. Phenotypic analysis of transmitted or early founder Envs revealed a consistent pattern of CCR5 dependence, masking of coreceptor binding regions, and equivalent or modestly enhanced resistance to the fusion inhibitor T1249 and broadly neutralizing antibodies compared with Envs from chronically infected subjects. Low multiplicity infection and limited viral evolution preceding peak viremia suggest a finite window of potential vulnerability of HIV-1 to vaccine-elicited immune responses, although phenotypic properties of transmitted Envs pose a formidable defense.