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The uneven distribution of species richness is a fundamental and unexplained pattern of vertebrate biodiversity. Although species richness in groups like mammals, birds, or teleost fishes is often attributed to accelerated cladogenesis, we lack a quantitative conceptual framework for identifying and comparing the exceptional changes of tempo in vertebrate evolutionary history. We develop MEDUSA, a stepwise approach based upon the Akaike information criterion for detecting multiple shifts in birth and death rates on an incompletely resolved phylogeny. We apply MEDUSA incompletely to a diversity tree summarizing both evolutionary relationships and species richness of 44 major clades of jawed vertebrates. We identify 9 major changes in the tempo of gnathostome diversification; the most significant of these lies at the base of a clade that includes most of the coral-reef associated fishes as well as cichlids and perches. Rate increases also underlie several well recognized tetrapod radiations, including most modern birds, lizards and snakes, ostariophysan fishes, and most eutherian mammals. In addition, we find that large sections of the vertebrate tree exhibit nearly equal rates of origination and extinction, providing some of the first evidence from molecular data for the importance of faunal turnover in shaping biodiversity. Together, these results reveal living vertebrate biodiversity to be the product of volatile turnover punctuated by 6 accelerations responsible for >85% of all species as well as 3 slowdowns that have produced 'living fossils.' In addition, by revealing the timing of the exceptional pulses of vertebrate diversification as well as the clades that experience them, our diversity tree provides a framework for evaluating particular causal hypotheses of vertebrate radiations. evolutionary radiation | macroevolution | phylogeny

Madagascar's lemurs display a diverse array of feeding strategies with complex relationships to seed dispersal mechanisms in Malagasy plants. Although these relationships have been explored previously on a case-by-case basis, we present here the first comprehensive analysis of lemuriform feeding, to our knowledge, and its hypothesized effects on seed dispersal and the long-term survival of Malagasy plant lineages. We used a molecular phylogenetic framework to examine the mode and tempo of diet evolution, and to quantify the associated morphological space occupied by Madagascar's lemurs, both extinct and extant. Using statistical models and morphometric analyses, we demonstrate that the extinction of large-bodied lemurs resulted in a significant reduction in functional morphological space associated with seed dispersal ability. These reductions carry potentially far-reaching consequences for Malagasy ecosystems, and we highlight large-seeded Malagasy plants that appear to be without extant animal dispersers. We also identify living lemurs that are endangered yet occupy unique and essential dispersal niches defined by our morphometric analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spiny-rayed fishes, or acanthomorphs, comprise nearly one-third of all living vertebrates. Despite their dominant role in aquatic ecosystems, the evolutionary history and tempo of acanthomorph diversification is poorly understood. We investigate the pattern of lineage diversification in acanthomorphs by using a well-resolved time-calibrated phylogeny inferred from a nuclear gene super-matrix that includes 520 acanthomorph species and 37 fossil age constraints. This phylogeny provides resolution for what has been classically referred to as the "bush at the top" of the teleost tree, and indicates acanthomorphs originated in the Early Cretaceous. Pale-ontological evidence suggests acanthomorphs exhibit a pulse of morphological diversification following the end Cretaceous mass extinction; however, the role of this event on the accumulation of living acanthomorph diversity remains unclear. Lineage diversification rates through time exhibit no shifts associated with the end Cretaceous mass extinction, but there is a global decrease in lineage diversification rates 50 Ma that occurs during a period when morphological disparity among fossil acanthomorphs increases sharply. Analysis of clade-specific shifts in diversification rates reveal that the hyperdiversity of living acanthomorphs is highlighted by several rapidly radiating lineages including tunas, gobies, blennies, snail-fishes, and Afro-American cichlids. These lineages with high diversification rates are not associated with a single habitat type, such as coral reefs, indicating there is no single explanation for the success of acanthomorphs, as exceptional bouts of diversification have occurred across a wide array of marine and freshwater habitats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ray-finned fishes make up half of all living vertebrate species. Nearly all ray-finned fishes are teleosts, which include most commercially important fish species, several model organisms for genomics and developmental biology, and the dominant component of marine and freshwater vertebrate faunas. Despite the economic and scientific importance of ray-finned fishes, the lack of a single comprehensive phylogeny with corresponding divergence-time estimates has limited our understanding of the evolution and diversification of this radiation. Our analyses, which use multiple nuclear gene sequences in conjunction with 36 fossil age constraints, result in a well-supported phylogeny of all major ray-finned fish lineages and molecular age estimates that are generally consistent with the fossil record. This phylogeny informs three longstanding problems: specifically identifying elopomorphs (eels and tarpons) as the sister lineage of all other teleosts, providing a unique hypothesis on the radiation of early euteleosts, and offering a promising strategy for resolution of the "bush at the top of the tree" that includes percomorphs and other spiny-finned teleosts. Contrasting our divergence time estimates with studies using a single nuclear gene or whole mitochondrial genomes, we find that the former underestimates ages of the oldest ray-finned fish divergences, but the latter dramatically overestimates ages for derived teleost lineages. Our time-calibrated phylogeny reveals that much of the diversification leading to extant groups of teleosts occurred between the late Mesozoic and early Cenozoic, identifying this period as the "Second Age of Fishes." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Southern Ocean around Antarctica is among the most rapidly warming regions on Earth, but has experienced episodic climate change during the past 40 million years. It remains unclear how ancient periods of climate change have shaped Antarctic biodiversity. The origin of antifreeze glycoproteins (AFGPs) in Antarctic notothenioid fishes has become a classic example of how the evolution of a key innovation in response to climate change can drive adaptive radiation. By using a time-calibrated molecular phylogeny of notothenioids and reconstructed paleoclimate, we demonstrate that the origin of AFGP occurred between 42 and 22 Ma, which includes a period of global cooling approximately 35 Ma. However, the most species-rich lineages diversified and evolved significant ecological differences at least 10 million years after the origin of AFGPs, during a second cooling event in the Late Miocene (11.6-5.3 Ma). This pattern indicates that AFGP was not the sole trigger of the notothenioid adaptive radiation. Instead, the bulk of the species richness and ecological diversity originated during the Late Miocene and into the Early Pliocene, a time coincident with the origin of polar conditions and increased ice activity in the Southern Ocean. Our results challenge the current understanding of the evolution of Antarctic notothenioids suggesting that the ecological opportunity that underlies this adaptive radiation is not linked to a single trait, but rather to a combination of freeze avoidance offered by AFGPs and subsequent exploitation of new habitats and open niches created by increased glacial and ice sheet activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The uneven distribution of species richness is a fundamental and unexplained pattern of vertebrate biodiversity. Although species richness in groups like mammals, birds, or teleost fishes is often attributed to accelerated cladogenesis, we lack a quantitative conceptual framework for identifying and comparing the exceptional changes of tempo in vertebrate evolutionary history. We develop MEDUSA, a stepwise approach based upon the Akaike information criterion for detecting multiple shifts in birth and death rates on an incompletely resolved phylogeny. We apply MEDUSA incompletely to a diversity tree summarizing both evolutionary relationships and species richness of 44 major clades of jawed vertebrates. We identify 9 major changes in the tempo of gnathostome diversification; the most significant of these lies at the base of a dade that includes most of the coral-reef associated fishes as well as cichlids and perches. Rate increases also underlie several well recognized tetrapod radiations, including most modern birds, lizards and snakes, ostariophysan fishes, and most eutherian mammals. In addition, we find that large sections of the vertebrate tree exhibit nearly equal rates of origination and extinction, providing some of the first evidence from molecular data for the importance of faunal turnover in shaping biodiversity. Together, these results reveal living vertebrate biodiversity to be the product of volatile turnover punctuated by 6 accelerations responsible for >85% of all species as well as 3 slowdowns that have produced "living fossils." In addition, by revealing the timing of the exceptional pulses of vertebrate diversification as well as the clades that experience them, our diversity tree provides a framework for evaluating particular causal hypotheses of vertebrate radiations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The durability of vaccine-mediated immunity to SARS-CoV-2, the durations to breakthrough infection, and the optimal timings of booster vaccination are crucial knowledge for pandemic response. Here, we applied comparative evolutionary analyses to estimate the durability of immunity and the likelihood of breakthrough infections over time following vaccination by BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna), ChAdOx1 (Oxford-AstraZeneca), and Ad26.COV2.S (Johnson & Johnson/Janssen). We evaluated anti-Spike (S) immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody levels elicited by each vaccine relative to natural infection. We estimated typical trajectories of waning and corresponding infection probabilities, providing the distribution of times to breakthrough infection for each vaccine under endemic conditions. Peak antibody levels elicited by messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines mRNA-1273 and BNT1262b2 exceeded that of natural infection and are expected to typically yield more durable protection against breakthrough infections (median 29.6 mo; 5 to 95% quantiles 10.9 mo to 7.9 y) than natural infection (median 21.5 mo; 5 to 95% quantiles 3.5 mo to 7.1 y). Relative to mRNA-1273 and BNT1262b2, viral vector vaccines ChAdOx1 and Ad26.COV2.S exhibit similar peak anti-S IgG antibody responses to that from natural infection and are projected to yield lower, shorter-term protection against breakthrough infection (median 22.4 mo and 5 to 95% quantiles 4.3 mo to 7.2 y; and median 20.5 mo and 5 to 95% quantiles 2.6 mo to 7.0 y; respectively). These results leverage the tools from evolutionary biology to provide a quantitative basis for otherwise unknown parameters that are fundamental to public health policy decision-making.