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Modern quantum chemical electronic structure methods typically applied to localized chemical bonding are developed to predict atomic structures and free energies for meso-tetraalkylporphyrin self-assembled monolayer (SAM) polymorph formation from organic solution on highly ordered pyrolytic graphite surfaces. Large polymorph-dependent dispersion-induced substrate-molecule interactions (e.g., -100 kcal mol-1 to -150 kcal mol-1 for tetratrisdecylporphyrin) are found to drive SAM formation, opposed nearly completely by large polymorph-dependent dispersion-induced solvent interactions (70-110 kcal mol-1) and entropy effects (25-40 kcal mol-1 at 298 K) favoring dissolution. Dielectric continuum models of the solvent are used, facilitating consideration of many possible SAM polymorphs, along with quantum mechanical/molecular mechanical and dispersion-corrected density functional theory calculations. These predict and interpret newly measured and existing high-resolution scanning tunnelling microscopy images of SAM structure, rationalizing polymorph formation conditions. A wide range of molecular condensed matter properties at room temperature now appear suitable for prediction and analysis using electronic structure calculations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]