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We used published data from outbreak investigations of monkeypox virus clade I in the Democratic Republic of the Congo to estimate the distributions of critical epidemiological parameters. We estimated a mean incubation period of 9.9 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 8.5-11.5 days) and a mean generation time of 17.2 days (95% CrI 14.1-20.9 days) or 11.3 days (95% CrI 9.4-14.0 days), depending on the considered dataset. Presymptomatic transmission was limited. Those estimates suggest generally slower transmission dynamics in clade I than in clade IIb. The time-varying reproduction number for clade I in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was estimated to be below the epidemic threshold in the first half of 2024. However, in the South Kivu Province, where the newly identified subclade Ib has been associated with sustained human-to-human transmission, we estimated an effective reproduction number above the epidemic threshold (95% CrI 0.96-1.27).

We estimated the mean serial interval for Sudan virus in Uganda to be 11.7 days (95 CI% 8.2-15.8 days). Estimates for the 2022 outbreak indicate a mean basic reproduction number of 2.4-2.7 (95% CI 1.7-3.5). Estimated net reproduction numbers across districts suggest a marked spatial heterogeneity.

We analyzed the first 255 PCR-confirmed cases of monkeypox in Italy in 2022. Preliminary estimates indicate mean incubation period of 9.1 (95% CI 6.5-10.9) days, mean generation time of 12.5 (95% CI 7.5-17.3) days, and reproduction number among men who have sex with men of 2.43 (95% CI 1.82-3.26).

On March 11, 2020, Italy imposed a national lockdown to curtail the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. We estimate that, 14 days after lockdown, the net reproduction number had dropped below 1 and remained stable at »0.76 (95% CI 0.67-0.85) in all regions for >3 of the following weeks.