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Abstract Recent studies have revealed that biotic interactions in ecological communities vary over time, possibly mediating community responses to anthropogenic disturbances. This study investigated the heterogeneity of such variability within a real community and its impact on population stability in the face of pesticide application, particularly focusing on density-dependence of the interaction effect. Using outdoor mesocosms with a freshwater community, we found considerable heterogeneity in density-dependent interaction variability among links in the same community. This variability mediated the stability of recipient populations, with negative density-dependent interaction variability stabilizing whereas positive density-dependence and density-independent interaction variability destabilizing populations. Unexpectedly, the mean interaction strength, which is typically considered crucial for stability, had no significant effect, suggesting that how organisms interact on average is insufficient to predict the ecological impacts of pesticides. Our findings emphasize the multifaceted role of interaction variability in predicting the ecological consequences of anthropogenic disturbances such as pesticide application.

Abstract Assessing the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of species, communities, and ecosystems is essential for successful conservation. Climate change, however, induces extreme uncertainty in various pathways of assessments, which hampers robust decision-making for conservation. Here, we developed a framework that allows us to quantify the level of acceptable uncertainty as a metric of ecosystem robustness, considering the uncertainty due to climate change. Under the framework, utilizing a key concept from info-gap decision theory, vulnerability is measured as the inverse of maximum acceptable uncertainty to fulfill the minimum required goal for conservation. We applied the framework to 42 natural forest ecosystems and assessed their acceptable uncertainties in terms of maintenance of species richness and forest functional type. Based on best-guess estimate of future temperature in various GCM models and RCP scenarios, and assuming that tree species survival is primarily determined by mean annual temperature, we performed simulations with increasing deviation from the best-guess temperature. Our simulations indicated that the acceptable uncertainty varied greatly among the forest plots, presumably reflecting the distribution of ecological traits and niches among species within the communities. Our framework provides acceptable uncertainty as an operational metric of ecosystem robustness under uncertainty, while incorporating both system properties and socioeconomic conditions. We argue that our framework can enhance social consensus building and decision-making in the face of the extreme uncertainty induced by global climate change.

Spatial overlaps between forest disturbance drivers and threatened species’ ranges reveal that shifting agriculture is a major driver of forest biodiversity loss at a global scale, as demonstrated by a global analysis of forest disturbance and threatened vertebrate species distributions.

Abstract Biological atlas data can be used as inputs into conservation decision-making, yet atlases are sometimes infrequently updated, which can be problematic when the distribution of species is changing rapidly. Despite this, we have a poor understanding of strategies for efficiently updating biological atlas data. Using atlases of the distributions of 1630 threatened plant taxa, we quantitatively compared the informativeness of narrowly distributed and widespread taxa in identifying areas that meet taxon-specific conservation targets, and also measured the cost-efficiency of meeting those targets. We also explored the underlying mechanisms of the informativeness of narrowly distributed taxa. Overall, narrowly distributed taxa are far more informative than widespread taxa for identifying areas that efficiently meet conservation targets, while their informativeness for identifying cost-efficient areas varied depending on the type of conservation target. Narrowly distributed taxa are informative mainly because their distributions disproportionately capture areas that are either relatively taxon rich or taxon poor, and because of larger number of taxa captured with given number of records. Where resources for updating biological data are limited, a focus on areas supporting many narrowly distributed taxa could benefit conservation planning.

Abstract Climate warming is of concern as a key factor in the worldwide decline in insect populations. In Japan, numbers of a common dragonfly in rice paddy fields, Sympetrum frequens, decreased sharply in the 1990s. Because S. frequens migrates to cooler mountains in summer, climate warming has been suggested as one of the main causes of the population decline in addition to agronomic factors. Here, we analysed the relation between summer temperatures and population densities of S. frequens and the related S. infuscatum, which does not migrate to mountains in summer, using published population monitoring data and temperature data from three regions (Toyama, Ishikawa, and Shizuoka) in Japan. Decadal differences in summer temperatures lay within the range of fluctuations among years, suggesting that an increase in summer temperatures cannot explain the past sharp population declines. However, regression analyses using monitoring data from Toyama showed that the population dynamics of both species in autumn are negatively correlated with summer temperatures in the same year. These results suggest that high temperatures in summer directly affect adult mortality to an extent that results in a decrease in population growth.

Species richness patterns are driven by biotic and abiotic factors, the relative strengths of which are unclear. Here, the authors test how species interactions or environmental traits influence fish richness across over 700 Canadian lakes, showing a surprisingly small role of negative interactions.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.