1. Reconciling controversies about the 'global warming hiatus'.
- Author
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Medhaug I, Stolpe MB, Fischer EM, and Knutti R
- Subjects
- Atmosphere analysis, Atmosphere chemistry, Carbon Dioxide chemistry, Datasets as Topic, Earth, Planet, Environmental Policy, Global Warming legislation & jurisprudence, Global Warming prevention & control, History, 20th Century, History, 21st Century, Hot Temperature, Human Activities statistics & numerical data, Public Opinion, Reproducibility of Results, Seawater analysis, Seawater chemistry, Uncertainty, Dissent and Disputes, Environmental Monitoring, Global Warming history, Global Warming statistics & numerical data, Models, Theoretical
- Abstract
Between about 1998 and 2012, a time that coincided with political negotiations for preventing climate change, the surface of Earth seemed hardly to warm. This phenomenon, often termed the 'global warming hiatus', caused doubt in the public mind about how well anthropogenic climate change and natural variability are understood. Here we show that apparently contradictory conclusions stem from different definitions of 'hiatus' and from different datasets. A combination of changes in forcing, uptake of heat by the oceans, natural variability and incomplete observational coverage reconciles models and data. Combined with stronger recent warming trends in newer datasets, we are now more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.
- Published
- 2017
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