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In response to the escalating global obesity crisis and its associated health and financial burdens, this paper presents a novel methodology for analyzing longitudinal weight loss data and assessing the effectiveness of financial incentives. Drawing from the Keep It Off trial-a three-arm randomized controlled study with 189 participants-we examined the potential impact of financial incentives on weight loss maintenance. Given that some participants choose not to weigh themselves because of small weight change or weight gains, which is a common phenomenon in many weight-loss studies, traditional methods, for example, the Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) method tends to overestimate the effect size due to the assumption that data are missing completely at random. To address this challenge, we proposed a framework which can identify evidence of missing not at random and conduct bias correction using the estimating equation derived from pairwise composite likelihood. By analyzing the Keep It Off data, we found that the data in this trial are most likely characterized by non-random missingness. Notably, we also found that the enrollment time (i.e., duration time) would be positively associated with the weight loss maintenance after adjusting for the baseline participant characteristics (e.g., age, sex). Moreover, the lottery-based intervention was found to be more effective in weight loss maintenance compared with the direct payment intervention, though the difference was non-statistically significant. This framework's significance extends beyond weight loss research, offering a semi-parametric approach to assess missing data mechanisms and robustly explore associations between exposures (e.g., financial incentives) and key outcomes (e.g., weight loss maintenance). In essence, the proposed methodology provides a powerful toolkit for analyzing real-world longitudinal data, particularly in scenarios with data missing not at random, enriching comprehension of intricate dataset dynamics., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

The obesity pandemic continues unabated despite a persistent public health campaign to decrease energy intake ("eat less") and increase energy expenditure ("move more"). One explanation for this failure is that the current approach, based on the notion of energy balance, has not been adequately embraced by the public. Another possibility is that this approach rests on an erroneous paradigm. A new formulation of the energy balance model (EBM), like prior versions, considers overeating (energy intake > expenditure) the primary cause of obesity, incorporating an emphasis on "complex endocrine, metabolic, and nervous system signals" that control food intake below conscious level. This model attributes rising obesity prevalence to inexpensive, convenient, energy-dense, "ultra-processed" foods high in fat and sugar. An alternative view, the carbohydrate-insulin model (CIM), proposes that hormonal responses to highly processed carbohydrates shift energy partitioning toward deposition in adipose tissue, leaving fewer calories available for the body's metabolic needs. Thus, increasing adiposity causes overeating to compensate for the sequestered calories. Here, we highlight robust contrasts in how the EBM and CIM view obesity pathophysiology and consider deficiencies in the EBM that impede paradigm testing and refinement. Rectifying these deficiencies should assume priority, as a constructive paradigm clash is needed to resolve long-standing scientific controversies and inform the design of new models to guide prevention and treatment. Nevertheless, public health action need not await resolution of this debate, as both models target processed carbohydrates as major drivers of obesity., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Observational and clinical studies suggest that high protein intake, particularly protein from plant sources, might reduce blood pressure (BP). To examine the association of dietary protein with BP, we analysed data from PREMIER, an 18-month clinical trial (n=810) that examined the effects of two multi-component lifestyle modifications on BP. We examined the association of protein intake with BP, and in particular the independent relationship of plant and animal protein with BP. Multivariable linear regression analyses were performed with both cross-sectional and longitudinal data. Dietary plant protein was inversely associated with both systolic and diastolic BP in cross-sectional analyses at the 6-month follow-up (P=0.0045 and 0.0096, respectively). Fruit and vegetable intake was also inversely associated with both systolic and diastolic BP cross-sectionally at 6 months (P=0.0003 and 0.0157, respectively). In longitudinal analyses, a high intake of plant protein at 6 months was marginally associated with a reduction of both systolic and diastolic BP from baseline to 6 months only (P=0.0797 and 0.0866, respectively), independent of change in body weight and waist circumference. Furthermore, increased intake of plant protein, and fruits and vegetables was significantly associated with a lower risk of hypertension at 6 but not at 18 months. Results of this study indicate that plant protein had a beneficial effect on BP and was associated with a lower risk of hypertension at 6 months. Our data, in conjunction with other research, suggest that an increased intake of plant protein may be useful as a means to prevent and treat hypertension.

Objective: To examine the effects of low-carbohydrate, ketogenic (LCKD) and low-fat (LFD) diets on acid-base status., Design: Prospective analysis of volunteers from two clinical trials., Participants: Subset of 39 volunteers from a randomized trial comparing the effects of an LCKD with an LFD, and a single-arm trial of an LCKD., Setting: Outpatient research clinic., Intervention: LCKD (initially <20 g of carbohydrate daily) or LFD (<30% of energy from fat, 500-1000 kcal energy reduction) instruction., Measurements: Arterial blood gas analysis, serum chemistries (electrolytes, urea nitrogen/creatinine, glucose, ketone bodies, lactate), anion gap, and urine ketone bodies measured at weeks 0, 2, 8, and 24., Results: Participants had a mean (+/-standard deviation) age of 43.5+/-9.3 years; 28 (72%) were female, 29 (74%) were Caucasian. Using linear mixed-model analysis to examine blood test changes from baseline to 24 weeks, the LFD group experienced a decrease in arterial blood pH from a mean of 7.43 at week 0 to 7.40 at week 24 (P=0.03), and the LCKD group experienced a decrease from 7.42 at week 0 to 7.40 at week 24 (P=0.01). The lowest pH measurements observed were 7.34 in the LFD group and 7.37 in the LCKD group. Although serum bicarbonate appeared to decrease from baseline at weeks 2 and 8 in the LCKD group, the change at 24 weeks was not statistically significant in either diet group, and only four of 131 (two of 92 from the LCKD group) measurements were less than 22 mmol/l. The proportion of participants with elevated urine and serum ketone body levels rose in the LCKD group only, was highest at week 2, and decreased over the subsequent time points., Conclusion: In individuals following an LCKD or an LFD, blood pH decreased mildly and the LCKD group experienced a small, transient decrease in serum bicarbonate in conjunction with mild ketosis. This suggests that an LCKD induced a mild compensated metabolic acidosis, but no individual showed evidence of significant metabolic derangement.